Flow Control and Treatment Companies Will Be Unevenly Impacted By the Chinese
Slowdown and Oil Priced Drop
The flow control and treatment market will grow by 2 percent in 2016 to $340
billion. In general small Asian suppliers will achieve the highest
percentage growth. The performance of the large international companies will be
mixed. McIlvaine is analyzing each of the larger companies to compare
their forecasts to the world market trends.
Clarcor will join many other international flow control and treatment companies
who will experience revenue losses in 2016 while the world market increases
modestly. The strength of Clarcor is that a large percentage of the sales
come from consumables rather than capital equipment. The weakness is the
low market shares in Asia and certain other geographies where growth will exceed
the average.
Clarcor anticipates revenues falling by approximately 2 percent in 2016 based on
revenues of $1.4 billion.
Segment |
World Revenues
$ Millions |
Clarcor Revenues
$ Millions |
Clarcor % of World |
World % Change |
Clarcor % Change |
Mobile Filtration |
12,000 |
600 |
5 |
4 |
-4 |
Stationary Air Filtration |
8,000 |
250 |
|
4 |
-2 |
Stationary Liquid Filtration
Including Oil and Gas |
10,000 |
250 |
|
-1 |
-2 |
Air Pollution Control |
10,000 |
300
|
3 |
3 |
-2 |
Total |
30,000 |
1,400 |
|
3 |
-2 |
Mobile filtration revenues will be up worldwide by 4 percent as more vehicles
are driven more miles. The primary growth will be in Asia. The poor
quality of ambient air in Asian countries and the need for air filters in homes
and commercial buildings will help boost stationary air filtration sales by 4
percent.
The stationary liquid filtration sales will be down only modestly due to the
high percentage of consumables in the mix. Oil production will be up in
2016 even if the capital expenditures for new equipment will be down
substantially. Companies such as Clarcor who sell replacement filters will
benefit.
Two of the major unknowns and concerns in 2016 are the price of oil and gas and
the status of the Chinese economy. Neither one of these should have a
substantial impact on Clarcor sales due to its mix of products.
The growth in LNG production in the U.S. is a positive factor for Clarcor.
Clarcor expects sales of gas turbine inlet filters to remain flat in 2016 but
the world market will be up by more than 5 percent. This is a combination
of increased power generation but also increases in unit selling prices.
High efficiency filters selling at twice the price of existing medium efficiency
filters can be justified based on improvements in gas turbine operations.
A number of power plants around the world are converting their particulate
control technology from electrostatic precipitators to fabric filters.
This could boost filter sales by more than 20 percent per year when the movement
is fully implemented. The challenge for the BHA group within Clarcor will
be to achieve high market shares in countries such as China, Russia, Chile and
Italy where these conversions are presently taking place.
The McIlvaine Company forecasts market shares and markets for all the products
made by Clarcor in the following publications:
N064
Air/Gas/Water/Fluid Treatment and Control: World Market
N021
World Fabric Filter and Element Market
N022 Air
Filtration and Purification World Market
N024
Cartridge Filters: World Market
59EI Gas
Turbine and Combined Cycle Supplier Program
N049 Oil,
Gas, Shale and Refining Markets and Projects
Coalescing Filters
(contact for details)
Mobile Filtration
(contact for details)
20,000 MW of New Gas Turbine Facilities in the U.S. Are Being Built By Just 10
Companies
Annual increases in gas turbine power generation in the U.S. will be 18,000
MW/yr over the next five years. The ten largest developers have 20,000 MW
underway at 24 different sites. This is the conclusion of the McIlvaine
Company in
59EI Gas Turbine and Combined Cycle Supplier Program.
The ranking of the ten largest power producers is based on the proposed gas
turbine-based power capacity. (We limit our data only to those projects
which are currently still on track and are either in the approval or permitting
process or currently under construction.)
Rank |
Power Producer |
|
1 |
Panda Power Funds |
|
2 |
Dominion |
|
3 |
Exelon |
|
4 |
Competitive Power Ventures |
|
5 |
Advanced Power |
|
6 |
Duke Energy |
|
7 |
Coronado Power Ventures |
|
8 |
NTE Energy |
|
9 |
NextEra Energy |
|
10 |
PSEG |
|
Of particular interest is that half of these companies are private companies
owned by investors with the primary intent of developing the facility, perhaps
operating it for a while, then selling it at a profit when the timing is right.
(The five are Panda, CPV, Advanced Power, Coronado and NTE.) The activity
by private companies creates an additional challenge for large component
suppliers who must forge new relationships. It is a benefit to smaller
suppliers or those new to the market that has more difficulty being considered
by the large utilities.
The U.S. will account for more than 20 percent of the new gas turbine power
generation in the next few years. This makes it an attractive market for
suppliers of power plant systems and components
For more information on 59EI
Gas Turbine and Combined Cycle Supplier Program,
click on:
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/markets/28-energy/610-59ei
McIlvaine Hot Topic Hours (HTH) and Recordings
Explanation
Applicable
Services
Schedule
& Registration
Sponsored
Webinars
McIlvaine conducts periodic webinars which are in a discussion format and are
free of charge to all participants. The displayed material and recordings are
free to purchasers of the products and services and by subscription to others.
Format: 50-90 minute recorded discussion using Mcilvaine display material.
The session will be free of charge to all participants but registration is
required.
Approach: There are two types of webinars. One is focused on Markets and
directed to suppliers. The other is focused on aiding purchasers make the best
Decisions relative to purchases of flow control and treatment equipment and
services.
Markets HTH
The general overviews of the market including size and major variables will be
discussed with heavy emphasis on technology and regulatory drivers. The
presentation will be based on the latest information appearing in Mcilvaine
multi-client reports. Questions and views from both subscribers and
non-subscribers are encouraged.
Decisions HTH
Mcilvaine has been publishing information systems on pollution control since
1974. Each subject is organized by the pollutant control technology e.g. fabric
filter, scrubber etc. There are search capabilities to retrieve information on
any application. The newest addition has been slide deck systems
displaying the issues and options relative to a specific applications.
Coal-fired power, cement, steel, and waste combustion decision slide decks are
continually updated.
The continually updated slide decks are displayed on the applicable decision
system. It is recommended that participants view the slide deck in advance
of the session and be prepared with questions and views.
Value to purchasers and specifiers: Your questions and interests will be
prioritized in the discussion. You will get a monthly newsletter and have
continuing access to the system and multiple ways to interface in the future
along with a networking directory of suppliers.
Value to Suppliers: You have the opportunity to provide data to be
considered at no charge. If you are also a subscriber you will see the summaries
in advance and be able to shed light on issues and options not properly covered
in the slide deck. If you are a subscriber you will receive the monthly
newsletter and continuing yearly access to the system including networking
directories.
44I Power Plant Air Quality Decisions
includes 1ABC, 3ABC, 4ABC, 9ABC decision services but not 2ABC. So those with
multiple technologies and at least partial focus on power will find this
combination most cost effective.
Applicable Services for Hot
Topic Hours** |
|||||||
Pollutant |
Industry |
Fabric Filter
(1ABC) |
Scrubber
(2ABC) |
Precipitator
(4ABC) |
FGD & DeNOx
(3ABC) |
Air Pollution
(9ABC) |
Gas |
Mercury
February |
Coal |
|
|
|
X |
X |
|
WTE |
X |
X |
|
|
X |
|
|
Sewage |
|
X |
X |
|
X |
|
|
Cement |
X |
|
|
|
X |
|
|
Natural Gas* |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DeNOx
March 24, 2016 |
Coal |
|
|
|
X |
X |
|
Incineration |
|
|
|
X |
X |
|
|
Steel |
|
|
|
X |
X |
|
|
Cement |
|
|
|
X |
X |
|
|
Diesel* |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gas Turbine |
|
|
|
X |
|
X |
Hot Gas |
Coal |
X |
X |
X |
|
X |
|
WTE |
X |
X |
X |
|
X |
|
|
Cement |
X |
X |
X |
|
X |
|
|
Steel |
X |
X |
X |
|
X |
|
|
Incineration |
X |
X |
X |
|
X |
|
|
Coal Gas |
X |
X |
|
|
X |
|
|
GT Intake |
|
|
|
|
|
X |
|
FGD and Acid Gas
June 16, 2016 |
Coal |
|
|
|
X |
X |
|
Sewage |
|
X |
|
|
X |
|
|
WTE |
|
X |
|
|
X |
|
|
Cement |
|
X |
|
|
X |
|
|
Steel |
|
X |
|
|
X |
|
*Included in custom system
|
Which Subjects should be discussed in the Mercury Hot Topic Hour (HTH) February
11?
There are lots of questions about how to meet mercury emission limits in various
industries and countries. Answers to these questions will be continually
addressed in a new McIlvaine Program including a Hot Topic Hour (HTH) discussion
on February 11. The details on the program are explained below along with the
specific issues and options we plan to discuss. We encourage your input in
advance to add additional questions and to provide answers.
Our Decisions HTH on Mercury, DeNOx and Hot Gas Filtration will be
based on decision slide decks which will be continually updated prior to and
subsequent to the webinar. End users and subscribers have free access to
the online slide decks. It is all explained at
Hot
Topic Hour Schedule and Recordings
on the McIlvaine Company website.
The Mercury HTH will focus on questions from end users as well as discussions
about the merits of various approaches. One of the biggest contributions
will be to provide cross pollination between industries. The sewage sludge
incinerator plants in the U.S. and the waste-to-energy plants in Europe have
some cutting edge technologies which need to be evaluated for use in other
industries.
Here is the McIlvaine view of the status and potential of the technologies for
the various industries:
|
Coal-fired Power |
Waste to Energy |
Sewage Sludge Incineration |
Cement |
Natural Gas |
Non- Ferrous |
Activated carbon injection |
EH PM |
EH PM |
EL PL |
EL PL |
EL PL |
EM PM |
Activated carbon pellets |
EL PM |
EM PL |
EM PM |
|
EH PH |
|
Scrubber chemicals |
EM PH |
EL PM |
EL PM |
EL PM |
EL PL |
EH PH |
Gore module |
EL PH |
EL PH |
EM PH |
EL PM |
EL PU |
EL PH |
Metal sorbent |
EL PL |
EL PL |
EL PL |
EL PL |
EM PM |
EH PM |
Molecular sieve |
EL |
PL |
EL PL |
EL PL |
EH PH |
EL PL |
Ionic liquid |
EL PL |
EL PL |
EL PL |
EL PM |
EL PH |
EL PL |
E = experience P = potential
H = high, M = medium, L= low, U = unknown
Are the experience and potential ratings for the various technologies accurate?
If you think otherwise you can say so during the session or better yet—send us
some support data in advance.
Each application has technology which may prove valuable for one or more of the
other applications. For example, the ionic liquids are a new approach
being used in natural gas mercury removal. The pilot systems show advantages
over carbon pellets. Sewage sludge incinerators use carbon pellets and
Gore modules.
Which industries should consider ionic liquids and Gore modules as an
alternative to the present approach?
Sewage sludge incinerator operators have selected absorber modules instead
of carbon pellets for more than a dozen installations. Coal-fired power
plants are also using adsorber modules as one of the approaches. Sharing
of information on both applications will be beneficial.
Non-ferrous smelters are using metal filters but are also using scrubbers with
unique liquids. The Boliden-Norzink process involves the following three steps.
First, mercury scrubbing occurs in the reaction tower. The reaction tower is a
counter-current absorber tower made of fiber glass reinforced polypropylene
plastic. In the reaction tower, the HgCl2 solution is sprayed evenly
in the packing area and reacts with mercury in the flue gas. The second step
involves the production of the calomel mercurous chloride (Hg2Cl2),
which is suspended in solution. Some of the Hg2Cl2
is also sent to chloride process. During the final step, the Hg2Cl2
is oxidized by Cl2 in the stirring tank.
The extensive use of chlorine in solution has been implemented in waste
incineration in Europe. Many waste-to-energy plants have multi stage scrubbers
with the first stage being used to make salable 30 percent hydrochloric acid.
What happens to the mercury in this first stage scrubber?
Is the knowledge gained by the non-ferrous industry of use to WTE operators?
The potential use of the WTE acid loop by the power industry is transformative.
The coal-fired power plant would become a chemicals complex with production of
rare earths, precious metals, hydrochloric acid, gypsum or sulfur and flyash.
The WTE experience plus the Chinese and U.S. initiatives for extraction of rare
earths from flyash can lead the way to the power/chemicals complex.
McIlvaine believes that the acid loop is transformative. What do you
think? Is there any reason in situ leaching is not vastly superior to the
approaches by the Chinese government and the U.S. DOE?
There are lots of monitoring related questions.
Where do you use sorbent traps and where do you use CEMS and shouldn’t you use
both?
Is the answer different for each of the industries?
How much mercury is escaping in the particulate form?
Should you use one CEM and two sample ports or two CEMS to analyze both inlet
and outlet mercury?
One of the experts displays slides showing that CEMS are less expensive than
sorbent traps for life cycles longer than two or three years. Do you agree?
There are lots of questions about the addition of chemicals.
If bromine is used with the coal:
·
Is the corrosion worry just with section 45 installations?
·
Is 75 ppm of bromine safe but 150 ppm risky?
·
What about Mitagent or other chemicals to reduce corrosion potential?
·
Where should halogens be injected?
What about preventing re-emissions from the scrubber.
How much additional mercury capture is achieved with chemicals added in the
scrubber loop?
Is activated carbon a viable choice for the recirculating scrubber loop?
The choice of activated carbons is important. We need to explore the
differences between one carbon and another and also to determine where and when
activated carbon should be injected.
How much performance improvement has been made by activated carbon
manufacturers?
What removal efficiency and what will be the cost for activated carbon if I just
have a precipitator?
If I have a dry scrubber, how much efficiency reduction is possible from SO3
interference and can I inject sorbent ahead of the air heater to eliminate this
potential?
How much selenium will be captured with AC?
What about concrete friendly AC and the impact on the sales of flyash?
If I operate with dry sorbent injection, do I add the AC prior to or with the
sorbent?
Mercury and NOx control variables. The decisions on NOx control
effect the mercury reduction choices.
How much mercury oxidation is achieved in so called standard catalysts vs. the
newer offerings which balance NOx reduction, SO2
conversion to SO3 and mercury oxidation?
Regulatory issues and questions abound.
If I emit particulate mercury but don’t report it since I am using CEMS which
measures gaseous emissions as required, do I have any liability?
Will China more broadly pursue the Near Zero Emissions (NZE) goals with mercury
limits similar to the U.S. or will this just be a demonstration in certain
cities and provinces?
Will the true cost initiative which shows that mercury and fine particulate are
major costs in producing cement in China lead to mercury controls for this
industry?
Since one major Chinese cement company is also the world leader in co-combustion
of sewage sludge, will there be more extensive mercury controls on his plants?
How many countries require CEMS for mercury emissions from waste-to-energy
plants?
Each of the six decision slide decks will be revised until February 10.
McIlvaine will be at EUEC this week where many of the suppliers of mercury
removal products will be exhibiting or speaking. McIlvaine has a stand.
Also you can meet with Bob McIlvaine by contacting him in advance at mobile
#847-226-2391.
HOT TOPIC HOUR (HTH) SCHEDULE
Dates for the next 6 meetings are firm; the others will be held in sequence at
approximately two week intervals. Unforeseen developments could dictate
the insertion of new subjects.
DATE |
SUBJECT |
February 11, 2016
Decisions |
Mercury
-
Review of the issues and options
for mercury removal for sewage
sludge incinerators, cement,
coal fired power, and waste to
energy plants.
Click
Here to Register |
February 25, 2016
Markets |
Zero Liquid Discharge
-
Regulatory status in US and ROW;
spray drier vs. evaporation for
Chinese power plants; difference
in various system designs; total
cost of ownership; valve,
pump, evaporator, centrifuge,
instrumentation, materials and
compressor options.
Click Here to Register |
March 10, 2016
Markets |
Gas Turbine
-
Intake filter, SCR, NH3, HRSG,
valve, pump, instrumentation and
cooling options (dry vs. wet);
treatment chemicals; challenges
with FAC due to extensive
cycling.
Click Here to Register |
March 24, 2016
Decisions |
NOx Control
- Review
of the issues and options for
NOx control in coal fired power,
cement, steel, and waste to
energy plants as well as mobile
diesel vehicles.
Click Here to Register |
April 7, 2016
Markets |
Power Generation Technologies
-
Future of USC coal in India,
Vietnam and Indonesia;
natural gas prices; GHG
regulations; nuclear costs;
penetration for wind and solar.
Click Here to Register |
April 21, 2016
Decisions |
Hot Gas Filtration
-
Issue and Option for particulate
capture. in coal fired power,
cement, steel, and waste
incineration. Click
Here to Register |
June
16, 2016
Decisions |
FGD and Acid Gas Separation
- Issue
and options for SO2 and other
acid gas separation from coal
fired power, cement, steel, and
waste incineration plants.
Click
Here to Register |
TBA
Markets |
Desalination
-
Thermal vs. Membrane; energy
recovery, pump, valve,
compressor and chemicals
options; power/desalination
combinations. |
TBA
Markets |
Oil, Gas, Refining
-
Supply and demand; impact on
flow control and treatment
products; regional impacts
e.g. subsea in North Atlantic
vs. shale in the US vs. Oil
Sands in Canada. |
TBA
Markets |
Food
- Analysis
of 12 separate
applications within food and
beverage with analysis of valve,
pump, compressor, filter,
analyzer and chemical options;
impact of new technologies such
as forward osmosis. |
TBA
Markets |
Municipal Wastewater
-
Quality of pumps, valves,
filters, and analyzers in
Chinese and Asian plants; new
pollutant challenges; water
purification for reuse. |
TBA
Markets |
Mobile Emissions -
Reduction in CO, VOCs, and
particulate in fuels, oils, and
air used in on and off road
vehicles; impact of RDE
and failure of NOx
traps and the crisis in Europe
created by the focus on diesels. |
Click here to Register for the Webinars
___________________________________________________________________________
Sponsored Webinars
allow suppliers to take
advantage of all the valuable
information on their power point
presentations. Click
here for details |
Free Sponsored Webinars
·
Albemarle
- Cement MACT
·
Aquatech
·
NVISTA
·
Midwesco - Bagfilter Performance
Analyzer
·
Pavilion
·
Sick Maihak
- Cement MACT
·
Tekran Instruments
- Cement MACT |
----------
You can register for our free McIlvaine Newsletters at:
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php?option=com_rsform&formId=5
Bob McIlvaine
President
847-784-0012 ext 112
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
www.mcilvainecompany.com