Gartner Says Mobile Phone Sales Will Exceed One Billion in 2009
Mobile phone sales will reach 779 million units in 2005, a 16 percent increase on 2004
Egham,
U.K.,
20 July 2005 — Today Gartner released its global
forecast for mobile phones predicting that the milestone of one billion units
sold per year will be reached in 2009.
This comprehensive study included detailed forecasts of sales in 62 countries.
It was compiled by Gartner's team of more than 20 mobile and wireless analysts
based in 12 countries around the globe.
"The world's appetite for mobile phones has exceeded even the most optimistic
expectations," said Ben Wood, research vice president for mobile terminals at
Gartner. "Mobile phones could go on to be the most common consumer electronics
devices on the planet." Gartner estimates there will be 2.6 billion mobile
phones in use by the end of 2009.
Worldwide
Mobile
Terminal Sales, 1997 to 2009
(Millions of Units)
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
107.84 |
175.65 |
295.15 |
414.99 |
413.31 |
427.37 |
519.99 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
674.00 |
778.75 |
847.24 |
914.02 |
980.29 |
1,041.52 |
Source: Gartner Dataquest (July 2005)
The research also showed:
"The sales volume cannot be attributed to
one region in particular. It's a truly global phenomenon," said Carolina
Milanesi, principal analyst at Gartner for mobile terminals. "In mature markets
like
Europe
and North America, subscribers are still buying replacement phones. In emerging
markets like Brazil and India, new customers are signing up for mobile services
at an even faster rate."
Asia/Pacific accounts for most sales: one in every four mobile phones sold this
year. In 2009 this will increase to one in three. Ann Liang, Gartner's principal
analyst for mobile terminals in the region said, "China and India alone will
account for nearly 200 million units in 2007, with the Indian market surpassing
China in 2009 to reach 139 million units."
North Americans are still buying the latest models, but the bigger story is in
Latin America. Hugues De La Vergne, Gartner's principal
analyst for mobile terminals in the
Americas, said
"Sales nearly doubled in 2004 within
Latin America
and they will reach 100 million mobile phones a year by 2009. Brazil is the
powerhouse of the region, accounting for more than a third of sales this year."
Deeper analysis of the forecast shows that smartphones are the fastest growing
category of device. "Smartphone sales broke all records in the first quarter of
2005 and we expect them to double year on year to 2006", said Roberta Cozza,
principal analyst at Gartner.
Despite spectacular growth on all fronts, not everything is rosy. Mr Wood
cautioned that "Sales numbers are impressive, but the big names in this industry
will have to deliver value as well as volume. We expect the average wholesale
price of a mobile phone will decline from US$174 in 2004 to US$161 in 2009. At
the same time, phones will keep getting more complex and become ever-more packed
with features. Only the sharpest players will survive."