How to Use This Report
Adjusting Revenue Forecasts
One of the most important segments of this report is the display of product revenues by country and application for each year. This segment is found as a link at the top of the home page. These revenue forecasts are based on U.S. dollars as of 2010. This means that inflation since that date will change the revenue forecast in current dollars. A further complication is that the revenue forecasts are based on nominal prices in the U.S. The revenues for many products which are mostly domestically produced will reflect purchasing parity, so in the case of China this is 0.65. All of this is explained in the Overview section under GDP Analysis.
This report has a number of uses ranging from instant answers to questions about construction of product quota systems for every sales territory. It can be used by senior management to understand and identify major trends. It can be used by the marketing department to allocate the advertising budget.
Industry Segments with Forecasts
This section provides detailed information on specific industries. For example if you select refining you can view monthly updates of refining projects and forecasts of future refining capacity in every country. Each industry analysis includes spreadsheet with forecasts for every country in percent with the world 2000 as the base or 100%. These charts form the basis for utilizing the values for one country in a previous year to forecast the values for all countries in future years
Summaries from McIlvaine Market Reports
McIlvaine provides millions of forecasts in a number of areas. These reports are not available as part of this service. However, market summaries and various excerpts are provided in this segment to aid the researcher in his forecasting of related products. The full reports are available at a discount to World Markets subscribers.
Information useful in forecasting markets for specific products is contained in this chapter. In some cases there are actual forecasts made by McIlvaine in the past. Some data represents free information available from reports by other market research companies. Some data comes from government or other sources.
In nearly every case the forecasts are not universal nor do they project into the future. But with factors derived from this product data it is possible to obtain useful forecasts for different years, different countries, and even different but related products.
For each country there is data which is either not included in the industry analyses or is arranged in a manner for maximum ease of use. “Current economic data” provides a month by month report of GDP and other economic measuring tools. “Market forecast comparison to the U.S.” provides an industry by industry comparison of future markets in the specific country to the U.S. market. “Overview” provides the latest third party analysis of the country’s economy. The “other” category provides additional insights on product forecasts relevant to that country but not contained in the “Product” analysis chapter.
When the U.S. is divided into 9 regions the market in each region is bigger than all but a few countries. A companion report allows the researcher to project markets by State and region.
Instant Forecasting
Instant forecasts for every industry in every country can be made for any product by using a combination of the industry and product data which has been compiled. There are three major approaches to generating forecasts. One is to start with unit sales or costs. If piping is $100,000/MW of new coal fired capacity then all that is necessary is to insert this revenue factor into the spreadsheet with projected MW of coal fired capacity in each country to derive the world forecasts.
Another route is through forecasting each market industry by industry. All that is necessary is to determine the revenue in one country in one year and then use the Industry spreadsheets to generate the revenues.
This program is automatic. Just enter the one revenue number in the appropriate green box and view forecasts for all the years and all the countries in the yellow.
A third route is to select a surrogate product. For a seals supplier, pumps would be the ideal surrogate product. If you are a manufacturer of seals and know that the market in the U.S. was a certain value in 2004, then you just insert this number into the green box in the Product Forecast-pump chart and view all seals forecasts for each country in each year in the yellow right hand chart..
You do not necessarily have to know the total market. You may find it equally valuable to say, “I know my own sales in the U.S. If I received the same market share percentage in other countries in future years what would the revenues be?” In this case you would insert your sales revenues in a previous year in one country.