SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY FORECAST

By 2015 semiconductor manufacturing will be concentrated in Asia. At that time 74% percent of the production and 70% of the revenues will be generated in Asia. The Mcilvaine Company  forecasts that in 2015 78% of the worlds semiconductor equipment purchases will be for Asian chip fabrication facilities. By 2015 the production in Asia will be greater than the entire world production last year.

Asia will purchase 78% of the semiconductor equipment in 2015

Asia will purchase 74% of the consumable items in chip manufacturing in 2015

There are two industry indicators which help project the market for products sold to the semiconductor industry. One is semiconductor production and another is semiconductor equipment sales.  Semiconductor production can be measured in dollars, wafer starts and silicon production.

The market for consumables and replacement parts is a function of semiconductor production. The semiconductor companies report sales on a monthly basis. These are reported both on a world and regional basis. Total sales equals total production, but regional sales do not equal regional production. For example, Japan produces more semiconductors than they use. So production exceeds sales to Japan. In China, sales far exceed production. This means for each country or region of the world it is necessary to determine sales and then add exports and subtract imports to determine production.

CONSUMABLES

Future forecasts for semiconductor production revenues (SEMI1) have been used to determine the percentage growth of consumables sold to the industry in (SEMI3).

Note that 2010 world production revenues equals 100%. All world and individual country numbers thereafter represent percentages of the 2010 world number.

(SEMI4) shows the percent increase (decrease) from the year 2000. 

EQUIPMENT

Future forecasts for semiconductor equipment revenues (SEMI2) have been used to determine the percentage growth of hardware sold to the industry in (SEMI5).

Note that 2010 world production revenues equals 100%. All world and individual country numbers thereafter represent percentages of the 2010 world number.

(SEMI6) shows the percent increase (decrease) from the year 2000.

OTHER USEFUL FACTORS AND FORECASTS

The forecasts for semiconductor materials consumption in dollars for each country is a useful tool for analyzing any consumable used in the industry (SEMI7).  Semiconductor materials in percentages (SEMI8)

The number of wafer starts is a good indicator because it eliminates the chip price variable.  Here is a chart based on equivalent monthly wafer starts based on 200 MW wafers (SEMI9).

This numerical analysis has been converted to percentages (SEMI10).

EMPLOYMENT

National employment estimates for the total U.S. Semiconductor Processors Industry is reported at 32,000. The Semiconductor and Other Electronic Component Manufacturing employment is estimated at 30.000, with an hourly mean wage at $16.73.

The full report can be found at http://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes519141.htm and includes national estimates, an industry profile, and state and metropolitan area profiles for this occupation.