If you were feeling a bit of déjà vu recently look no further than the latest reading of U.S. economic growth for the cause. Like the initial estimate of first quarter 2014 GDP, the first reading says the economy grew in Q1 2015 — but very, very, very slowly.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its advance estimate of real gross domestic product for the first quarter of this year— covering January, February and March. The release showed output in the U.S. increasing at a rate of 0.2%. This is a huge deceleration from the fourth quarter 2014 when real GDP gained 2.2%. Economists on average were anticipating growth of 1% in Q1.

Last year the GDP reading was ultimately revised to negative 2.1% then economic growth rebounded sharply in the second (4.6%) and third (5%) quarters.

“We believe weakness was grossly exaggerated and there will be significant catch-up in Q2, but, of course, that remains to be seen,” wrote High Frequency Economics’ Jim O’Sullivan, who had anticipated 1.3% growth, in a note following the release. “Apart from fundamental slowing and normal volatility, possible factors include harsher-than-usual winter weather, port delays and seasonal adjustment problems relating to Q1 specifically. More fundamentally, lower oil prices account for the plunge in the mining component of business investment in structures, although we think the positive effects of lower oil prices will ultimately offset the negative effects. ”

Similarly, RBS’ Michelle Girard wrote, “Despite the sharp deceleration in Q1, we remain upbeat about the outlook for growth in the U.S. We expect the economy will rebound in Q2 and beyond, similar to last year. Consumption and housing have already shown signs of a rebound. Trade is normalizing as port disruptions wane. In the second half of 2015, the negative drag from business investment associated with the collapse in oil prices will wane and should be more than offset by the positive boost to growth from lower energy costs (as the models have long predicted).”

Also similar to a year ago many economists and investors are pointing to snowy winter weather as the root of the weakness. Other factors holding back growth this time around may have included the strong dollar, pressure on the energy sector from lower oil prices and dock worker strikes on the West Coast that disrupted that flow of trade.

The meager growth reflects positive, though slowing, personal consumption expenditures and positive private inventory investment but declines in just about every other metric. This includes lower nonresidential fixed investment, lower state and local government spending and fewer exports. Meanwhile imports, which negatively impact GDP, increased.

The price index for gross domestic purchases — which measures prices paid by U.S. residents — decreased 1.5%, compared to 0.1% decrease in the fourth quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, however, the price index increased 0.3% in Q1 and 0.7% in Q4. Real personal consumption expenditures increased 1.9% compared with a 4.4% increase last quarter.

Canada

International Monetary Fund has lowered its outlook for Canadian economic growth.

It describes Canada’s recent performance as “solid” but says the risk to its growth has been increased by an unusually large drop in oil prices, weaker business investment in the energy sector and lower employment growth

The latest projection from the Washington-based agency calls for the Canadian economy to grow 2.2% in 2015, down from the January estimate of 2.3%.

Canada is expected to outperform Japan and countries that use the euro, but lag behind the United States and the United Kingdom.

The IMF estimates in a report that the American economy will grow 3.1% this year and the U.K’s real gross domestic product will grow by 2.7%.

The IMF also predicts the 18 countries that use the euro will expand 1.5% in 2015, up from a January forecast of 1.2%. The fund forecasts that Japan will grow 1.0% this year, versus an earlier forecast of 0.6%.

Exports have been touted as a savior of the economy, with Canadian exporting set to rise on the lower dollar.

But the World Bank rhas since ported that the outlook for exports may not be so rosy.

Global trade only grew by 2.8% in 2014, according to its latest estimate. It expects 3.3% growth in global trade this year and 4.0% growth in 201

In a separate report, the World Bank predicted a further slowdown in China until the end of the year and said that would hurt commodity exporters, such as Canada.

The headwinds facing the world economy, including lower oil prices and a high U.S. dollar, pose risks to East Asia’s globally-integrated economies, the bank said in its analysis.

“The recovery in high-income countries continues to be slow and uneven, and a downturn in the eurozone and Japan would weaken global trade,” it said.

The World Bank estimates China will grow 7.1% in 2015, and 6.9% in 2017, a more moderate pace than it has set in the past decade as its demand for lumber, metals and other raw goods helped power the Canadian economy.

ASIA

China

Is it time to start panicking about China’s debt? If you believe Beijing won’t support the municipalities that have overdosed on credit over the last few years, then absolutely. But overall, China’s federal level debt remains low, bank’s remain strong despite higher non-performing loans on the balance sheet, and yet we still get a total debt to GDP ratio of a whopping 282%.

First, a little comparison. The U.S. total debt to GDP, which includes household and corporate debt, is 331.7%. The economy has not imploded because of that, though there are plenty of people out there with books and newsletters to sell who say it is only a matter of time. They might be right. The same holds for China.

McKinsey Global Institute blamed China’s debt burden on a credit bubble which began in earnest in 2009. Back then, China was trying to plug up the holes left by the U.S. and European financial crisis. China is export dependent. When its two biggest clients fell because of its own credit bubble, China did what all economies do in crisis — stimulate, stimulate, and stimulate some more.

McKinsey says local debt is the biggest problem. Central government debt is still low, at around 64% of GDP. That gives the government room to — well, stimulate some more. The central bank is currently running its own mini-QE program, which has helped the stock market beat the MSCI Emerging Markets Index by a landslide year-to-date.

China’s bank debt is still in fair shape, but rising bad loans from muni lenders and real estate developers means there is “more pain to come.”

It is worth noting here that Beijing has been allowing more for bankruptcies to take place. Companies that are part of China’s oversupply problems are being allowed to go belly up. While that potentially opens up a major can of worms in the job market, so far it does not appear that the unemployment rate is leading to civil unrest.

Of course, China being China, the media probably won’t learn about it until things are starting to boil.

Now for the good news on China debt. Household debt in China is very low. Like most Asian societies, Chinese love to save and invest.

Standard Chartered estimated that China credit has peaked. The debt to GDP ratio is stabilizing, the bank said in a report to clients. Chinese companies have an estimated $1 trillion in foreign debts as of the end of 2014, compared to $308 billion for Brazilian corporates and $196 billion for Indian firms.

The McKinsey report, titled “Debt and (Not Much) Deleveraging”, was released in February.

Since the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble, global debt — led by China — has increased by $57 trillion as of the second half of 2014. That means it’s even higher today. All of the growth has come from governments and central bank stimulus. The compounded annual growth rate of debt was 5.8% between 2000 and 2007 for governments. It rose to 9.3% between 2008 and 2014, while banks cut their debt three-fold, and global household debt growth fell four-fold.

The McKinsey report showed that China led all emerging markets and was ahead of most developing markets in terms of an increase in total debt to GDP over a seven year period ending in the first half of 2014. Only Portugal, Greece, Singapore and Ireland saw their debt burden increase, but that is mainly due to massive corrections in economic output.

Over that same seven year period, India, Romania, Egypt, Argentina, Saudi Arabia and Israel all deleveraged.

India

India's economy grew an estimated 7-7.5% last fiscal year and will keep growing this year, but the government will have to invest more in agriculture to keep up the momentum, according to finance minister, Arun Jaitley.

Economists polled by Reuters last month pegged India's 2014/15 economic growth at 7.4% and 7.8% for the current year in terms of standard gross domestic product (GDP). Using a controversial new way of measuring GDP, India's statistics office has said the economy has overtaken China as the world's fast-growing major economy, at an annual 7.5% in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year that ended on March 31.

Indonesia

With Indonesia's growth numbers in the spotlight this week, doubts are growing over President Joko Widodo's ability to stimulate the economy as the country faces the prospect of a severe slowdown.

Investors are bracing for a weak first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) report, which could show growth falling below 5%, Daiwa Capital Markets estimated, worse than 2014's 5% increase, a five-year low.

"On-the-ground channel checks suggest severe growth deceleration with various sectors experiencing declines of 30-90% on year. From brick sellers to diamond shops, the adverse impact of the slowdown appears to be widespread," Daiwa said in a report. An economic rebound isn't likely until the third-quarter, judging by seven straight months of shrinking manufacturing activity, it said.

"Indonesia is in dire need of some growth," added Credit Suisse said in a recent note. "The question is, what can the government do to stimulate growth? And, just how effective such a policy will be?"

It's a concern reflected in the stock market, with the Jakarta Composite dropping more than 6% as poor results from index heavyweights sparked growth concerns. Stocks, however, managed to rebound more than 1% soon after.

With net foreign outflows of over $1 billion since mid-March and year-to-date losses of nearly 3%, the benchmark is now one of the world's worst-performing indexes.

Japan

Japan's economy was expected to post a second straight quarter of moderate growth in January-March, led by a pickup in exports and business investment, a Reuters poll found, pointing, if realized, to a steady recovery from recession after last year's sales tax hike.

Annual expansion of 1.5% in gross domestic product (GDP) would match the rate of growth in October-December, translating into a quarterly increase of 0.4%, unchanged from the prior quarter, the Reuters poll of 22 economists found.

Subdued growth could be a source of concern for policymakers counting on consumer spending, backed by increased corporate profits and higher wages, to help sustain a virtuous growth cycle and defeat nearly two decades of deflation.

"The economy shows no signs of accelerating due mainly to private consumption, which would rise only slowly," said Yoshiki Shinke, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.

"The economy is slow-going despite expected (positive) effects from cheap oil prices. I'm particularly concerned about struggling private consumption."

Private consumption, which accounts for roughly 60% of GDP, was expected to register a quarterly gain of 0.2%, slowing from a 0.5% rise in October-December.

Consumers tightened their purse strings as the sales tax hike boosted prices across the board, outpacing salaries and curbing real incomes, hurting household purchasing power.

Capital spending was seen to rise 0.8%, after sliding for three straight quarters through October-December as companies have been hesitant to boost spending on plant and equipment given the uncertain economic outlook.

External demand was seen as likely to shave 0.1% point off GDP growth. A weak yen helped boost exports, but imports outpaced exports, resulting in a slightly negative external contribution.

Ministry of Finance data due on May 13 at 0850 JST (May 12, 7.50 p.m. EDT), is expected to show the current account surplus rising to 2.0601 trillion yen ($17.18 billion) in March, exceeding 2 trillion yen for the first time since Sept 2010, helped by income gains and an improving trade balance.

On May 15, 0850 JST (May 14, 7.50 p.m. EDT) Bank of Japan data is expected to show wholesale prices fell 2.1% in the year to April, the first drop since March 2013, partly as effects of the sales tax hike taper off.

On the month, the corporate goods price index (CGPI), which measures the prices companies charge each other for their goods and services, was forecast to rise 0.1%, the poll found.

Malaysia

RHB Research expects Malaysia's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth to expand by around 6% in the first quarter (1Q) of 2015, improving on the 5.8% in the fourth quarter of last year.

In a note, the research house said industrial activities were stronger in the 1Q, suggesting that economic activities remained resilient in the early part of the year, driven by higher crude oil production despite a sharp fall in prices.

"These were reinforced by a slight pick-up in the growth rates of manufacturing production and electricity output during the period," it added.

Meanwhile, RHB Research said domestic demand is expected to grow at a more moderate pace of 5% this year, slower than the 6% growth in 2014.

"This is constrained by lower oil prices and implementation of the Goods and Services Tax, as well as the impact of earlier policies on controlling rising household debt and property speculation," it added.

On the global economy outlook, RHB said, not withstanding headwinds as well as challenges, it is estimated to expand at a faster pace in 2015 and will likely sustain the growth of Malaysia's exports and manufacturing sales in the period ahead.

Pakistan

Pakistan’s gross domestic product is expected to grow by 5.7% in 2015, according to a report in the prestigious magazine The Economist.

Pakistan was placed at fifth position of G20 and BRICS nation with GDP growth rate of 5.7% this year.

According to the list, India tops the list for growth of 7.6% while China is at second place with 6.9% GDP growth.

Philippines was placed at third spot with 6.7% GDP growth followed by Vietnam with 6.2%.

Pakistan’s GDP is expected to grow by 4.7% in 2016 whereas India’s expected GDP growth rate for 2016 is 8.1%

The country’s industrial production increased by just 0.9% since last year whereas India’s production jumped by 5.0% since 2014.

EUROPE / AFRICA / MIDDLE EAST

Eastern Europe

Investors can expect mostly upbeat data from Eastern European markets this week, despite the potential contagion from recession in Russia and financial crisis in Greece, according to Capital Economics.

Russia, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia are scheduled to report first quarter GDP figures this week. The Russian economy likely contracted by around 3% year over year, with inflation hurting consumer spending. “But industry has held up reasonably well, which has prevented an even sharper fall in output,” Capital Economics writes. For central and southern Europe, Capital Economics sees an expansion in output of 3% year over year for the region, compared with 2.7% in the fourth quarter of 2014. Capital Economics adds:

“There has been very little evidence, so far at least, that the recession in Russia and renewed problems in Greece have had any impact on activity in the region … At a country level, we think that Hungary and Poland were the region’s best performers. We have penciled in GDP growth of 3.3% y/y in both countries, which would roughly be in line with the fourth quarter’s outturn. Elsewhere, we think growth in the Czech Republic accelerated to around 2.0% y/y in the first quarter, from 1.4% y/y in the fourth quarter, and would highlight that the chance of an upside surprise here is high.

As for Russia, Capital Economics expects preliminary first quarter GDP contraction due to the toll from “low oil prices, last year’s ruble crisis and Western sanctions.”

The slump in consumer-facing sectors was probably the biggest drag on growth in Q1 as households’ real incomes collapsed on the back of soaring inflation. Retail sales contracted by 6.9% y/y in real terms over the first three months of the year. Investment in productive capacity was also hard hit, falling by 6.1% y/y in Q1

France

The French economy is expected to grow 0.3% in the second quarter, the Bank of France's monthly business confidence survey showed.

The survey by the central bank forecasts the eurozone's second largest economy will expand 0.3% in the second quarter compared with the first quarter as business sentiment rose in manufacturing, service and construction.

In April, the Bank of France slightly raised its estimate for first-quarter economic growth, forecasting the French economy to grow 0.4% in the first quarter from a previous estimate of 0.3% growth.

The April survey showed that business sentiment in manufacturing rose to 98 from 97 in March, where 100 is the long-term average. In services, sentiment rose to 95 from 94 in March and in construction to 92 from 91 a month earlier.

Norway

Norway's right-wing minority government recently said it would increase its spending of "oil cash" slightly from the country's sovereign wealth fund to counter an expected slow-down in economic growth, as its oil sector continues to tighten its belt amid lower prices.

"The drop in oil revenues will challenge our ability to restructure," said Minister of Finance Minister Siv Jensen, as she presented a revision of the 2015 government budget that was launched in October, well before the oil-price lows in January. "We should strengthen the economy's ability to grow."

The government now expects Norway's mainland gross domestic product, which excludes oil and gas production and is seen as a measure of the country's underlying performance, to grow 1.3% in 2015, compared with a 2.0% growth forecast given in October.

Norway expects to spend a record 168.8 billion kroner ($22.45 billion) of its saved-up oil wealth this year, or 2.6% of the value of its $890 billion sovereign wealth fund.

"In the short term, the oil fund shields government budgets from lower oil prices," Ms. Jensen said.

United Kingdom

UK GDP grew by 0.4% in the three months ending in April compared to 0.3% growth in the three months ending in March 2015, according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

The think tank said it expects “the slight softening” of GDP growth experienced in the first quarter of this year to be “temporary”.

Estimates of GDP from the NIESR suggest that the UK economy will grow 2.5% in 2015, which is down from the 2.8% projected three months ago.

The NIESR also expects the growth rate to come down to 2.4% in 2016.

Earlier in May, the think tank said in a statement: “We expect growth to rebound through the remainder of this year. This will be driven largely by consumer spending, supported by the positive terms of trade effect from the sharp fall in oil prices.”

It also said the level of prices will fall slightly for the most part of 2015 and unemployment to fall to about 5.25% at the end of 2015.

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