The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its third estimate of real gross domestic product for the second quarter of 2014 — covering April, May and June of this year. The release showed output in the U.S. increasing at an annual rate of 4.6%. This is relative to the first quarter when real GDP declined a sharp 2.1%.

The revision is up from BEA’s 4.2% second estimate released last month as well as its 4% advance estimate out in July. The revision, BEA said in a release, was largely due to a larger than previously estimated increase in nonresidential fixed investment and exports. Of the revision the BEA wrote, “The general picture of economic growth remains the same” as when it released the second estimate.

The 4.6% growth in real GDP reflected growing personal consumption, private inventory investment, exports, both residential and nonresidential fixed investment, as well as local government spending. The gains were partially offset by an increase in imports, which negatively impact GDP, and a 0.9% decline in federal government expenditures.

“Given the partial indicators in between the second and third estimate this was broadly anticipated but that doesn’t dull the good news,” Jeremy Lawson chief economist at Standard Life Investments. He also noted that consensus was for the upward revision to be driven by growth in personal consumption but the real driver was fixed business investments with 9.7% growth. This, Lawson says, is a strong sign for future growth and critical for productivity. At the same time the 2.5% personal consumption growth was slightly lower than anticipated but “not a disappointment.”

The price index for gross domestic purchases — which measures prices paid by U.S. residents — increased 2%, up slightly from the prior estimate and compared to 1.4% growth in the first quarter. Real personal consumption expenditures increased 2.5%, keeping with the second estimate and up from the 1.2% increase in the first quarter.

The BEA now estimates second quarter corporate profits increased $164.1 billion, compared to a $201.7 billion decrease in the first quarter. Taxes on corporate income increased $45.7 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $66.9 billion in the first.

The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite were all in the green following the pre-market release pushing higher upward momentum seen earlier in the day.

Argentina

Argentina’s gross domestic product was unchanged in the second quarter from a year earlier, the government, reviving doubts over the veracity of the data after JPMorgan Chase & Co. estimated a 1.7% contraction.

First-quarter figures were also revised to an expansion of 0.3% from a 0.2% contraction, the national statistics agency said. From the previous three months, the economy grew 0.9% after shrinking for two quarters.

President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner’s government unveiled a new national consumer price index in February and then revised growth numbers after the International Monetary Fund threatened sanctions if it didn’t improve the accuracy of the data. Doubt over the statistics has resurfaced as figures diverge from analyst estimates, said Daniel Kerner, head of Latin America research at the Eurasia Group.

“They showed close to realistic numbers earlier in the year when they were under threat from the IMF and since then they’ve been gradually moving away from that,” Kerner said in a phone interview from Washington. “They never really moved towards transparency.”

The median forecast of 10 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for a contraction of 0.4% in the second quarter.

Maximiliano Castillo, director of Buenos Aires-based research firm ACM, said his estimate for a 0.3% contraction was based on what he thought the government would say. The economy shrank by 1.5 percent from a year earlier, according to his calculations.

“It would be very difficult for the government to say that GDP will fall in 2014 because it contradicts their version of events of so many years of sustained growth,” Castillo said in a telephone interview.

Imports fell 10.5%, while exports slid 3.7%, the government said in a statement.

The economy will deteriorate further in the second half of the year as the second default in 13 years puts pressure on dwindling reserves that are forcing the government to cut imports, said Miguel Kiguel, director of Buenos Aires-based consultancy EconViews.

“The economy began slowing from the first quarter because of a lack of reserves,” Kiguel, a former deputy economy minister, said in a telephone interview. “The default complicated a situation that was already bad.”

The July default has spurred demand for dollars, pushing the peso down 23 percent against the dollar on the black market to a record 15.95 pesos per dollar. The widening gap with the official rate of 8.42 pesos per dollar is fueling speculation the government will have to devalue.

Seeking to preserve international reserves that have declined 19% in the past year to $28.2 billion, the government has increased import limits.

The limits and weaker domestic demand pushed imports down 20% to $5.7 billion in August from a year earlier, the biggest decline since October 2009.

The drop in consumer spending and a flagging Brazilian economy cut Argentine vehicle sales by 43% to 51,000 units in August from a year earlier.

In response to falling demand, the government signed an accord with credit card companies including Visa Inc. and MasterCard Inc. to provide shoppers with interest-free credit payable in 12 monthly installments to buy domestically-produced household appliances, bicycles and clothing.

The government this month revised down its growth estimates for 2014 to 0.5% from 6.2%. The economy will grow 2.8% in 2015, Economy Minister Axel Kicillof said Sept. 15 while presenting next year’s budget in Congress.

JPMorgan said in a note to clients that growth figures may diverge from market expectations. While the government is likely to report a contraction of 0.4% this year, the New York-based bank expects the economy to shrink 1.6%.

A record soy harvest helped cushion what could have been a worse second quarter with the economy growing 0.5 percent from the previous quarter on a seasonally-adjusted basis, the government report said.

“As recession lingers the risk of a setback in the normalization of economic data reporting increases,” analysts Vladimir Werning and Iker Cabiedes wrote in the report.

ASIA

Australia

Global growth will improve to around 3.5% year-on-year throughout 2015 and 2016, as US and India experience faster growth and Latin America normalizes, NAB said in an update of its global and Australian forecasts.

However, the report downwardly revised forecasts for Australian economic growth, amid a weaker third quarter and deteriorating terms of trade. NAB expects GDP growth at 2.8% during fiscal 2015, down 0.1%, and 3.2% for fiscal 2016, down 0.2%.

NAB also said it did not expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to move on interest rates until the end of 2015.

The local market will experience a weak third quarter, said NAB, driven down by a likely sharp decline in terms or trade and retreating business confidence and conditions.

"In September, capacity utilization continued falling, forward orders declined and employment slumped further into negative territory. In August, retail trade growth was soft, vehicle sales fell, personal credit growth remained weak and non-residential building approvals trended down."

The group said there were still few signs of a sustained increase in non-mining investment to fill the emerging mining investment cliff. But they added that the weakening Australian dollar should assist trade-exposed sectors of manufacturing and services.

NAB expects the unemployment rate to peak at around 6.25% by the end of 2014 before showing signs of improvement. The group cited weak demand for retail goods, combined with a weak demand for personal credit and a barely growing business credit demand as compounding factors on the employment market.

The terms of trade are expected to lose 9% through the course of 2014 and be broadly unchanged through 2015.

China

China's economy likely grew at its weakest pace in more than five years in the third quarter as a property downturn weighed on demand, a Reuters poll showed, raising the chances of more aggressive policy steps that may include cutting interest rates.

The economy may have expanded 7.3% in the third quarter from a year earlier - the weakest reading since the first quarter of 2009, when growth hit 6.6% during the height of the global crisis, according to a poll of 20 economists.

None of the economists believed Q3 growth will dip below 7%, although four penciled in 7.1% and one expected 7%.

The economy expanded by 7.5% in the second quarter and 7.4% in the first.

The government is due to release September data on trade, bank lending, investment and factory output in the coming weeks, leading up to third-quarter GDP on Oct. 21

"GDP growth is expected to slow to around 7.3% in the third quarter as property investment growth slides and manufacturing deflation worsens," Tang Jianwei, an economist at Bank of Communications, said in a note.

Softer domestic demand, linked largely to the cooling property market, probably pulled down growth in China's imports, investment and retail sales to multi-month or multi-year lows in September, a related poll showed.

Premier Li said that China will launch major investment projects in information networks, water conservancy and environmental protection this year, and pledged to policy adjustments made when needed.

But Li also made clear the government will tolerate growth slightly lower than the targeted 7.5% this year and rely more on reforms to generate new growth drivers.

The prospects of weaker growth may raise the chances of more aggressive policy steps such as cutting interest rates or reserve requirements across the board, but the government may not rush into action as the job market still appears to be holding up, analysts say.

Steps unveiled since April included reserve requirement cuts for selected banks and faster investment in railways and public housing. But much of their broader impact may have been offset by the cooling property market and tighter credit as banks grow more cautious about lending as the economy cools.

The central bank and banking regulator recently relaxed lending rules for home buyers, allowing banks to offer a maximum 30% discount to first time home buyers, a group which is being expanded to include those who already own one property but have paid off their existing mortgage.

But the impact of the move remains uncertain amid reports of huge inventories of unsold homes and state media reports that most banks are reluctant to offer big discounts on mortgages for fear of hurting their earnings.

"As we move into the fourth quarter, the base effect is expected to become slightly more favorable. This can support a path of modest expansion," Qu Hongbin, chief China economist at HSBC, said in a research report.

"However, given the lingering downside risks to growth and clear signs of a negative output gap, we think more easing measures are needed in the near term."

While, HSBC believed a rate cut remains an option toward the end of the year, others doubted the central bank will act soon.

"The possibility of cutting interest rates and RRR within the year is not big, unless there is a ugly turn," said Zhang Yiping, an economist at China Merchants Securities in Shenzhen.

It's hard to know where Beijing will draw the line in the sand for bolder policy action given the rapid expansion of the services sector, which creates more jobs than manufacturing.

Still, the government may have to step up policy support if quarterly growth slips below 7%, government economists at top think tanks involved in policy discussions said.

"There should be a lower limit. If (quarterly) growth slips below 7%, policy should be changed," said Zhang Yongjun, senior economist at China Centre for International Economic Exchanges, a well-connected think-tank in Beijing.

Top leaders have ruled out any massive stimulus as China struggles to deal with piles of local government debt, the hangover from a 4 trillion yuan ($652 billion) spending package implemented in 2008-09 to help cushion the country from the global financial crisis.

President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang are seeking to push reforms to put the world's second-largest economy on a more sustainable footing over the long term.

The government is likely to cut its annual growth target to around 7% in 2015, government economists said.

India

Come 2015 economy watchers and experts will have more updated GDP data to analyze the Indian economy that is showing signs of reversing two years of slump. The statistics office said that the base year of GDP will be revised to 2011-12 and the new data will be available from 2015.

The overhaul of the GDP is expected to expand the size of the Indian economy, due to broadening of coverage of unorganized sectors, agriculture and corporate sector.

"In accordance with the recommendation of the National Statistical Commission to revise the base year of all economic indices every five years, it is proposed to revise the base year of national accounts from 2004-05 to 2011-12 in 2015," ministry of statistics and program implementation said.

The new series will provide more updated information about the Indian economy that has seen a remarkable growth surge from 2004-05 up to global financial crisis in 2008 and deep slowdown in the last couple of months. "The new series of national accounts is tentatively scheduled for release on January 31, 2015," the statement said.

According to experts, widening of national accounts coverage in different sectors will likely push up India's absolute GDP numbers substantially from the Rs. 113 lakh crore in 2013-14.

India is currently the10th largest economy in the world in nominal GDP terms. The changes are based on the recommendations of the Advisory Committee on National Accounts Statistics (ACNAS) headed by Prof K Sundaram.

The new series will incorporation corporate information from the MCA21 database of the ministry of corporate affairs instead of the results obtained from the RBI study on Company Finances, which would mean a more comprehensive inclusion of corporate data in GDP numbers.

CSO will directly source corporate data from the ministry of corporate affairs database of more than 3.5 lakh companies to estimate GDP.

The statistics department currently relies on financials of about 2,500 firms compiled by the Reserve Bank of India to get an estimate for the entire industry. "Use of MCA database will considerably change the manner in which we estimate corporate sector data," said a Mospi official.

It will also help improve accuracy, particularly for the services sector, which accounts for about 60 per cent of GDP.

The revision has got delayed as the earlier exercise with base year 2009-10 had to be aborted as that year there was a severe drought. Base year is carefully selected because of the impact it has on the numbers and is usually chosen as one in which no serious anomaly was present.

The new series of Index of industrial production and wholesale price index will be released by March 2016, with revised base of 2011-12.

Malaysia

Malaysia is accelerating infrastructure investment as Prime Minister Najib Razak leans on public expenditure to boost growth amid concern subsidy cuts and a new consumption tax will curb private spending.

The government will start work on projects such as highways and rail worth at least 75 billion ringgit ($23 billion), Najib said in a budget speech in Kuala Lumpur today. He announced wider exemptions of items under the goods and services tax to reduce the impact of the levy, as the finance ministry targets growth of as much as 6% this year and next.

Najib’s efforts to narrow Malaysia’s budget deficit through subsidy cuts have left companies and consumers grappling with higher costs, and inflation next year is forecast to be the fastest since 2008. With a target of becoming a developed economy by 2020 just six years away, the prime minister is shifting his focus to attracting foreign investment, boosting education standards and adding high-quality jobs.

“To remain resilient and competitive, Malaysia must move to an economy based on knowledge, high skills, expertise, creativity and innovation,” Najib, who is also finance minister, said. “Economic planning and policies of a country need to be adjusted according to the developments and challenges in the domestic and external environment.”

Malaysia narrowed the budget shortfall to 3.9% of gross domestic product in 2013, and Najib said he is “committed” to trimming the gap to 3.5% this year and 3% in 2015, heading toward a balanced budget by 2020.

Among infrastructure investment Najib announced today are the construction of a 1,663-kilometer (1,033 miles) highway between the states of Sabah and Sarawak on Borneo island worth 27 billion ringgit, and rail projects around the Malaysian capital.

“Infrastructure spending for 2015 is huge,” said Peck Boon Soon, an economist at RHB Research Institute Sdn. in Kuala Lumpur. “This would continue to support the construction sector activities just like this year.”

The government raised fuel prices for the first time in more than a year on Oct. 2, and the prime minister said he will announce a “new mechanism” soon on a new petroleum subsidy program.

“Najib knows the credit-rating agencies are watching closely, and he delivers what they and the wider market players are looking for: fiscal consolidation,” said Wellian Wiranto, an economist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. in Singapore. “There is really no easy way out but to either reduce unnecessary expenditure or to boost the government’s receipts. It appears that a lot more emphasis is placed on the former.”

GDP will increase 5.5% to 6% this year, and between 5% and 6% in 2015, the Ministry of Finance said in its 2014/2015 economic report. The central bank projected 2014 growth of 4.5% to 5.5% in March.

Malaysia will exempt retail fuels, key food items and medicine from the GST of 6%, Najib said. He announced bigger cash handouts to lower-income households to help them cope with the tax that will start in April. Consumer prices are forecast to rise 4% to 5% in 2015, compared with an average 3.3% in the first eight months of this year, the finance ministry said in its report.

“Inflation is expected to remain manageable despite trending above the long-term average,” according to the report. “The strong capacity expansion over the past years will help to mitigate the cost pressures, while a more cautious stance of consumers would also contribute to moderating demand and hence prevent inflation from becoming more entrenched.”

The ringgit advanced by the most in six months yesterday, amid optimism Malaysia’s budget will outline commitments to improve public finances. The government will “ensure” its debt level is capped below 55% of GDP, it said.

Najib’s administration is forecasting federal spending of 271.9 billion ringgit in 2015, according to the finance ministry’s report. Total expenditure for this year is estimated at 262.2 billion ringgit.

The central bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged last month after an increase in July and said it will assess the balance of risks between the outlook for growth and inflation when considering further policy moves.

“In 2015, monetary policy measures will continue to support growth while mitigating risks to economic and financial imbalances that could undermine the long-term growth prospects,” according to the finance ministry report.

Najib unveiled a new program for some first-time property buyers that will provide financial assistance, stamp duty exemptions and 35-year loans to address concerns that rising prices are hurting their ability to purchase their own home.

Singapore

Singapore’s central bank is keeping monetary policy steady despite the economy’s sluggish growth, signaling greater worry about inflationary pressures than the possibility of a slowdown.

The government reported that third-quarter gross domestic product rose 1.2% on quarter on a seasonally adjusted and annualized basis, according to advance estimates. The measure is below a 2.2% growth forecast by economists in a Dow Jones poll, though a reversal of a 0.1% contraction in the second quarter.

The economy is estimated to have expanded 2.4% on year in the third quarter, the same pace as in the second, the government said. The central bank said it expects Singapore’s economy to expand at a moderate pace in the quarters ahead.

Though Singapore’s growth rate has stabilized, it is still slower than in previous years, as a multiyear restructuring plan takes its toll on headline figures. Government-mandated limits on the hiring of foreign workers have pressured Singapore’s manufacturing sector as the government introduces incentives—both carrot and stick—to encourage companies to improve productivity and rely less on cheap, imported labor.

Economists say the figures, while modest, are encouraging given the tepid pace of global growth. “I think the result is pretty positive,” said Jeff Ng, economist at Standard Chartered in Singapore. Still, cooling property prices and restructuring efforts have taken a toll, he said.

Mr. Ng also said that while economic growth remains soft, core inflation is instead “on the forefront of the policy makers’ thoughts.”

Wage inflation is likely to remain relatively firm, and businesses in food-related and some services sectors could further pass on cost increases, the central bank said. Its core inflation measure is projected to stay above its historical average over the next few quarters even as consumer-price inflation remains subdued, it added.

Consumer prices rose 0.9% on year in August, according to official data released late last month. Excluding transport and housing, which heavily influence the overall inflation figure, consumer prices rose 2.1% in August.

The central bank said its policy should keep a cap on domestic and external inflationary pressures and keep expectations “well anchored.”

The Monetary Authority of Singapore said it will continue to closely monitor the impact of external developments, such as uneven global growth, and would continue to pursue a policy of modest and gradual appreciation of the local dollar, its main policy lever in an economy where trade flows dwarf domestic activity.

The bank didn't flag the volatility seen in financial markets—a hallmark of the past few weeks—as a significant risk, although it did highlight recent weakening pressure on the Singapore dollar in August and September, which it said was “largely reflecting a rise in geopolitical risks and market reactions to the possibility of an earlier-than-expected rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve.”

EUROPE / AFRICA / MIDDLE EAST

Africa

On Sept. 30, Kenya announced the results of its “rebasing”—a recalculation of its gross domestic product to include previously unaccounted-for economic activity. Its GDP expanded 25.3%, to $55.2 billion, moving it up several rungs on the list of Africa’s largest economies, to 9th. The government adjusted its 2013 growth rate from 4.7% to 5.7%.

Kenya’s is the latest in a series of rebasings that have reinforced investors’ perception of the area’s growth potential. Even as Ebola ravages West Africa and civil war devastates the Democratic Republic of Congo, many of the other economies in the region remain dynamic: The International Monetary Fund predicts sub-Saharan growth will be 5.8% next year, up from an estimated 5.1% for 2014. Many of the area’s governments issue bonds that look like good bets based on that projected growth. “Africa’s the final frontier among emerging markets for high yield,” says Brett Rowley, emerging-markets sovereign analyst for TCW Group in Los Angeles.

The first big rebasing of 2014 took place on April 7, when Nigeria declared itself the largest economy in Africa, surpassing South Africa in GDP. According to Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics, the GDP numbers had been inaccurate for years, and the state finally addressed the problem. A recalculation by the statistics bureau, with help from the World Bank, the IMF, and the African Development Bank, showed the country’s statisticians were missing almost half of Nigeria’s economic activity.

The new figure, which took more than a year to calculate, increased the GDP total from $262.2 billion to $488 billion. It’s still not entirely accurate, because the calculations for the farm sector were based on older numbers—highlighting the difficulty of calculating GDP as well as the importance of the number. GDP is the world’s most watched economic statistic, and Nigeria’s triumph over South Africa made news around the globe. (South Africa regularly rebases its GDP, so an announcement that the country’s GDP is much larger than previously claimed is unlikely.)

Rebasings are “something a country might use to market itself, and it has political implications,” says Roy Adkins, Africa sovereign debt analyst for T. Rowe Price, the mutual fund group. Politics played a role in Nigeria’s recalculations. A national election is coming up in February, and incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan will be able to brag that on his watch the country usurped South Africa’s premier position.

Many poor and middle-income countries have had to work with shaky statistics for decades, according to the World Bank’s Bulletin Board on Statistical Capacity, which surveys the quality of statistics from different countries. According to the IMF, most African GDP figures are too low and need an update. Underestimating is chronic because calculating GDP in the most accurate way is expensive. It’s also impractical to conduct annual censuses of the population and all economic activities—in short, counting every person, good, and service that can be found. An affordable and faster option, which most countries choose, including the U.S., is to conduct several types of census—for population and various economic sectors—in a single year, and in the years between censuses use surveys, statistical samples from which to extrapolate an overall growth rate.

Nigeria’s old base year was 1990, and its new one is 2010. Nigeria in that time went from having no cell phones to having one of the largest user populations worldwide. Because there wasn’t a starting figure for the mobile telecom industry in the 1990 base from which growth was extrapolated, this part of its economy wasn’t counted until now. The country’s film industry is another example: What were just a few movies produced annually in 1993 have exploded into Nollywood, the world’s second-largest film industry by volume. Both mobile phone networks and films are now part of GDP. Nigeria’s case shows why recalculating GDP often is important. Donald Kaberuka, president of the African Development Bank, says all African nations should rebase their economies every five years to keep GDP figures as accurate as possible.

Yvette Babb, a fixed-income and currency strategist for Standard Bank Group (SBK:SJ) of South Africa, Africa’s largest lender by assets, expects four economic sectors to show the most growth in the rebased economies: services, telecommunications, wholesale and retail trade, and manufacturing. If a wave of rebasings does uncover more manufacturing, that would be important fodder for the “Africa rising” debate. Skeptics say sustainable economic growth in Africa requires more manufacturing and less reliance on exporting raw materials, the continent’s established source of revenue. In Nigeria, rebasing took manufacturing from a 1.94% share of GDP to 6.83%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

Germany

German GDP forecasts have been reduced to 1.25% from 1.8% for 2014 and to 2.0% in 2015.

Greece

Greece revised data on last year's gross domestic product, showing its economy shrank by 3.3% for the year as a whole, less than a previous estimate of a 3.9% contraction.

The country's statistics service ELSTAT said the revision reflected the use of new and updated data on national accounts, in line with the new European Systems of Accounts (ESA 2010).

The new data also showed that the recession in 2012 was milder than previous estimates, with GDP shrinking 6.6%, less than a previous 7% estimate.

Greece and its EU/IMF international lenders project the economy will emerge from a six-year recession and expand by 0.6% this year.

Nigeria

Nigeria gross domestic product (GDP), is expected to increase by another 20% to make it a competitive Information and Communication Technology hub through foreign investments shortly after the Gulf Information Technology Exhibition (GITEX) holding in Dubai, the United Arab Emirate.

This was revealed by the Director General of the National Information and Technology Development Agency,(NITDA), Mr. Peter Jack shortly after the flagging off the five –day event at the Dubai World Trade Centre by the Dubai’s crowned prince, Sheik Hamddan Al-maktoum.

According to him, by being a partnering country, Nigeria has huge opportunities to leverage and tap from foreign investments that could further propel the country’s GDP by some percentage.

Said he: “What we are trying to do is to attract substantial investment in the ICT sector. It is obvious that Dubai has an initiative of internet model and smart tech. Where we are now is that Nigeria has substantial capacity, which is not being properly harnessed. The moment we can harness that capacity, we should be able to deliver internet connectivity across the country. By the time, we go from here, we expect a substantial increase in the utilization of internet usage in the country.

“This is an opportunity to share with the world, the ICT sector in the country. Because of that we have come with young start-ups entrepreneurs and seasoned ICT players in the industry. There is a strong showing of the government Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAS) at this year’s exhibition”.

NITDA is an arm of the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), established by the Act in 2007, primarily to create a frame work for the planning, research, development, standardization, application, coordination, monitoring, evaluation and regulation of IT practices, activities and systems in Nigeria.

Jack maintained that GITEX will showcase Nigeria as Africa’s gateway for technology investment opportunities In addition the country is looking at investment in infrastructure, in original equipment manufacturers (OEMS) that will support local manufacturers as well as those who will support the country’s start-ups, who are the young innovators. While projecting that NITDA is thinking of the actualization of a digital coast just as it is located in the United States of America.

“One of the projects that is really interesting to all of us is the Lagos Smart city initiative, which is the Lekki free zone area. At NITDA, we dream of a digital coast as we have in the United States of America. The digital coast will start from Lagos through Delta, Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom and end up in Cross River, Tinapa knowledge city. The reality is that we are looking at the potential to attract investors along these digital coasts. We are looking and working towards creating an ecosystem in the ICT sector and investment will be across the board, not just in one area. What we are also doing is to recognize the need for capacity building that will produce the best level of software that can be found. We need some levels of investment that will take Nigeria to the next level”.

Meanwhile, the Consul General to Dubai, Ambassador Dr Mike Omotosho also disclosed that NITDA has put together a laudable program that is quite significant for the consulate, saying, “Why this is significant for us is basically because we are just celebrating our one year existence. The consulate was created in October, 2013, and NITDA is coming with a huge change with the exhibition. It takes all for Nigeria to be present in GITEX to showcase her technology skill, which is match able anywhere in the world.

“Nigeria and Dubai are formidable in terms of ICT and when we come together, we share experiences and compare notes for future use. This event is going to be a partnership that is far from learning, “he said.

Switzerland

Switzerland has reduced its economic growth forecasts on the back of the declining performance of its main trading partners in Europe, most notably Germany. Gross domestic product (GDP) is now tipped to expand 1.8% this year, rather than 2%.

The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) has also cut GDP growth predictions to 2.4% for 2015, down from the 2.6% it forecast earlier this year. But SECO warned that changes to the way it calculates growth make a direct comparison between these figures difficult.

“In light of the dampened short-term economic outlook for the euro region, including Germany, the conditions deteriorated compared with the last forecasts in June,” SECO said in a statement.

“Even six years after the outbreak of the global financial crisis, the global economic recovery remains fragile and prone to many risks. A sweeping, broadly based improvement in the international economic situation is still not in sight. As uneven global recovery continues, there is no uniform picture in terms of country and region.”

SECO’s gloomy picture was backed up by a crash in the price of government bonds, particularly United States treasury bonds, as markets reacted to a rash of bad news from around the world. The price of oil is also in free fall, a certain indicator of slackening industrial demand.

Swiss food producing giant Nestlé also reflected the weakening economic conditions in its third quarter results. Sales fell to CHF66.2 billion ($70.3 billion) in the first nine months of the year, down 3.1% from the CHF68.3 billion posted in the corresponding period in 2013.

Nestlé chief executive Paul Bulcke bemoaned the "volatile global trading environment where there are no tailwinds" for the disappointing result. Analysts pointed to a slowdown in demand from Chinese consumers.

Practically all parts of the world have been affected by the latest economic downturn with emerging economies in Asia and South America witnessing poor returns recently.

But the picture is especially bleak in Europe and the worsening relations between Russia and the West over Ukraine have affected trade, worsening the situation. This has been blamed for undermining the normally reliable German economy.

Earlier this week, Switzerland’s single largest trading partner dropped its GDP forecast from 1.8% growth this year to 1.2% and from 2% in 2015 to 1.3%.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble said the trend “is not particularly wonderful” but said that it is “no reason to start talking about a crisis”.

But even the short-term effects of the slowdown are filtering through to Switzerland.

“In view of subdued economic activity in key foreign markets, a significant pick-up in Swiss exports has not yet materialized,” said SECO. “In addition, domestic demand, which has made a significant contribution to the robust economic performance over recent years, lost some momentum in the first half of 2014.”

This echoed warnings early this year from economists who feared that Switzerland had used up much of its room for maneuver, having already dropped interest rates to rock bottom, taken measures to cool down an overheating real estate market and voted to restrict immigration.

Another pillar of relative Swiss economic strength, high employment rates, is also threatened but only marginally so. SECO raised its forecast unemployment rates to 3.2% this year (previously prediction was 3.1%) and 3.1% (from 2.8%) in 2015.

However, the labor market remains robust for the moment, according to an index published by job placement agency Adecco and the University of Zurich.

The employment barometer, which measures the number of jobs being offered by companies, rose 2% for the whole of Switzerland in the third quarter, with the best employment opportunities in the east of the country.

Further bright news for the Swiss economy is coming from the United States, which is starting to show signs of sustained economic recovery. Britain and Spain were also hailed by SECO as showing steady progress, but these are the few rays of light in a rather gloomy global outlook.

A range of other forecasters, from the Swiss National Bank, BAK Basel and Credit Suisse have also recently revised down their hopes for Swiss economic growth.

United Arab Emirates

Falling oil prices won’t hurt the gross domestic product growth of the UAE this year, a Ministry of Economy official told reporters recently.

“Oil accounts for less than 30% of our GDP, so there will be no impact. The UAE economy is now very diversified,” said Mohammed Ahmed bin Abdul Aziz Al Shehhi, undersecretary at the ministry.

“The oil price impact doesn’t reflect highly in our GDP.”

Brent crude oil futures hit a four-year low of $87.74 a barrel in recent days, down more than $25 from their peak in June.

Private economists agree, however, that unless prices decline further and stay at those levels for at least a year, there will be little damage to the Arabian Gulf’s big oil exporting economies.

Although governments in the region rely heavily on oil income, they have built up huge financial reserves and have very low debt, so they can continue spending on economic growth if needed. Lower oil prices will not translate directly into lower real GDP growth, which will slow only if oil production decreases. Also, most Gulf private sectors have been booming.

A Reuters poll of analysts in September, when the oil price slide was already well underway, found they expected GDP growth in most GCC countries to accelerate slightly next year. In the UAE, GDP is projected to grow 4.5% in 2015.

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Northfield, IL 60093-2743

Tel: 847-784-0012; Fax: 847-784-0061

E-mail: editor@mcilvainecompany.com

Web site: www.mcilvainecompany.com