Today’s GDP estimate is subject to a number of notable influences, including historically severe winter weather, which temporarily lowered growth in the first quarter. The report also shows the positive impact of the implementation of the Affordable Care Act which, together with continued slowing in health costs, helped strengthen the economy in the first quarter. The President will do everything he can either by acting through executive action or by working with Congress to push for steps that would raise growth and accelerate job creation, including fully paid-for investments in infrastructure, education and research, a reinstatement of extended unemployment insurance benefits, and an increase in the minimum wage.

Five Key Points in Today’s Report from The Bureau of Economic Analysis

1. Real gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.1% at an annual rate in the first quarter of 2014, following the 3.4% annual pace in the second half of 2013. Looking at the various components of GDP, consumer spending grew at a rapid pace, mainly reflecting sharp increases in health care and utilities consumption, while the other elements of consumer spending on net rose only slightly. Consumer spending on food services and accommodations fell for the first time in four years, one of several components that is likely affected by unusually severe winter weather. Exports and inventory investment, two particularly volatile components of GDP, also subtracted from growth.

2. The first quarter of 2014 was marked by unusually severe winter weather, including record cold temperatures and snowstorms, which explains part of the difference in GDP growth relative to previous quarters In addition, there were four storms in the first quarter that rated on the Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS).

3. Within the first quarter, several key indicators were lower in January and/or February before rebounding strongly in March, suggesting that the severe weather had a disruptive effect that only began to abate at the end of the quarter. Light vehicle sales, average weekly hours, core retail and food service sales, and core capital goods shipments dipped starting in December and/or January before bouncing back in March, and so were left little changed for the quarter as a whole. One outside group has estimated that the elevated snowfall in the first quarter slowed the annual rate of GDP growth by 1.4 percentage points, with all of that lost activity to be made up in the second quarter.

Additionally, it is worth noting that consumer spending on utilities surged more than 38% at an annual rate in the first quarter, the largest increase on record (with data back to 1959). While this weather-related jump in utilities spending added to GDP growth, it was likely more than offset by the constraining effect of severe weather on other categories, including other components of consumer spending (like autos, household furnishings, and restaurants), some components of private and public fixed investment, and exports.

4. The federal sector made a small positive contribution to growth for the first time in over a year, in part because the effect of the shutdown in the fourth quarter reversed. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that in the fourth quarter, federal worker furloughs resulting from the government shutdown directly reduced GDP growth by 0.3 percentage point at an annual rate; other effects of the shutdown (including reduced government purchases of goods and services) also likely contributed to the large 1.0 percentage point negative contribution from the federal government.

In the first quarter of 2014, the federal sector made a small (0.05) percentage point positive contribution to growth, in part due to the return to a full quarter of undisrupted federal employee work hours. Federal spending is subject to a number of influences, including the winding down of overseas military operations, the withdrawal of temporary support measures enacted earlier in the recovery, and in 2013, the sequester. The budget agreement reached late last year should create a more neutral fiscal climate in 2014 than in 2013, and while there is still a need to do more to invest in growth, the reduced fiscal drag is a key reason that outside forecasters expect growth to strengthen over the remainder of the year.

5. Health care prices continued to increase exceptionally slowly, growing at an annual rate of just 0.5% (0.9% on a year-over-year basis), while utilization (real health care spending) rose at a 9.9% annual rate in the first quarter. It is important to note that the main survey BEA uses to track health care spending will not report first-quarter estimates until June, and the expansion of insurance coverage under the Affordable Care Act during the first quarter complicates the interpretation of other available data. For this reason, today’s estimates could be revised significantly.

If anything, however, the details of today’s report suggest that the underlying cost trends in the health sector remain favorable. The sharp increase in estimated utilization appears to have been driven by greater use of health care services by people who gained insurance coverage during the first quarter because of the Affordable Care Act. Ensuring access to care is a key goal of the Affordable Care Act’s coverage expansion, so this increase in utilization is neither a surprise, nor a cause for concern. Furthermore, any upward pressure on health care spending growth from expanding insurance coverage will cease once coverage stabilizes at its new, higher level, so it does not affect the longer-term outlook for spending growth.

Meanwhile, consumers continued to benefit from very slow growth in health care prices, a trend that actually deepened during the first quarter and which is attributable in part to reforms made in the Affordable Care Act. Slower growth in health care prices drives slower growth in families’ out-of-pocket costs and insurance premiums and has been an important contributor to the overall slow growth in health care spending seen over the last few years.

CHILE

Chile’s gross domestic product fell less-than-expected last month, official data shows.

Chilean GDP 2.6% vs. 2.4% forecast. In a report, Banco Central de Chile said that Chilean GDP fell to a seasonally adjusted 2.6%, from 2.7% in the preceding month.

Analysts had expected Chilean GDP to fall to 2.4% last month.

ASIA

Hong Kong

Hong Kong's economic growth moderated in the first quarter on weak external demand, preliminary figures from the Census and Statistics Department showed.

Gross domestic product advanced 2.5% from last year, slower than the revised 2.9% expansion seen in the fourth quarter.

Growth was forecast to moderate to 2.9% from the fourth quarter's initially estimated increase of 3%.

On a seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter comparison, real GDP grew slightly by 0.2% in the first quarter, after a 0.9% increase in the preceding quarter.

The slowdown is likely to prove temporary, Gareth Leather, an Asia economist at Capital Economics said. The economist expects growth to rebound over the coming quarters as the global economic recovery gathers momentum.

The government also released its first quarter Economic Report 2014. The GDP growth forecast of 3-4% for 2014, as announced in the budget, was maintained in the current round of review.

The government forecast domestic demand to stay steady. "While the global economy had a slow start in 2014, the improved outlook for the year as a whole does not seem to have shifted by a significant extent," government economist, Helen Chan said.

This should provide ground for somewhat faster growth of the Hong Kong economy in the latter part of this year, the economist added.

In the first quarter, exports of goods rose only 0.5% annually after climbing 5.7% a quarter ago and the annual growth in imports came in at 1.2%.

Despite a high base of comparison a year ago, private consumption expenditure climbed 2% and government spending moved up 2.4%.

Investment gained moderately, by 3%, mainly driven by the surge in building and construction expenditure.

In the economic report, the government maintained its headline inflation forecast for 2014 at 4.6%. Consumer price inflation eased slightly to 4.2% in the first quarter.

Netting out the effects of the government's relief measures, underlying consumer price inflation edged down to 3.8% from 4% in the fourth quarter of 2013.

With wage growth staying steady and imported price pressures still modest, the upside risks to consumer price inflation should remain limited this year, the government economist said.

Japan

Japan's economy grew at a breakneck pace in the first three months of the year as consumers went on a massive shopping spree to avoid a planned sales tax increase.

Gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 5.9% in the first quarter, Japan's Cabinet Office said recently. The expansion was much quicker than the 4% figure expected by economists, and a major rebound from disappointing growth in the fourth quarter of 2013.

On a quarterly basis, Japan's GDP increased by 1.5%. Exports and business investment were particularly strong, and both measures topped analyst expectations.

Private consumption also provided a boost, driven by consumers that rushed to make big purchases before the tax hike took effect.

Japan's consumption tax was increased to 8% in April in a bid to improve the country's fiscal position. If needed, the government has the option to implement an additional increase to 10% by 2015.

Consumers responded in a big way -- and all the extra shopping contributed to the strong first quarter numbers. But now that the sugar rush is over, economists expect Japan's growth rate to return to earth in the second quarter.

"Looking ahead, the economy will certainly contract in the second quarter of the year, as consumers rein in spending after the tax hike, and residential investment is set to plunge," said Marcel Thieliant of Capital Economics.

Still, Japan is looking pretty good for the full year as the government presses ahead with its much-ballyhooed Abenomics revival strategy.

"While the first quarter's strong growth will likely give way to contraction in the second quarter, recent positive sentiment surveys suggest that Japanese growth should continue above the pre-Abenomics trend when the volatility caused by the tax increase passes," said Bill Adams, an economist for PNC Financial Services Group.

Malaysia

Malaysia’s gross domestic product rose more-than-expected last month, according to official data.

Malaysian GDP 6.2% vs. 5.5% forecast. In a report, Department of Statistics Malaysia said that Malaysian GDP rose to a seasonally adjusted 6.2%, from 5.1% in the preceding month.

Analysts had expected Malaysian GDP to rise to 5.5% last month.

Singapore

Singapore’s economy will experience “modest” expansion this year as a tight labor market constrains some industries amid improving global demand, the government said after growth exceeded initial estimates last quarter.

The city state maintained its 2014 growth and export forecasts even as manufacturing gains helped gross domestic product rise an annualized 2.3% in the three months through March from the previous quarter, more than an April estimate of a 0.1% expansion.

Singapore is nearing the midpoint of a 10-year economic transition strategy to reduce its dependence on cheap overseas workers while attracting new industries such as research and development.

The Southeast Asian nation, whose trade-dependent economy is vulnerable to fluctuations in global demand, expects recoveries in the U.S. and Europe to support growth even as China’s expansion cools.

Thailand

Thailand's political stalemate is dragging down the country's economy, which shrank sharply in the first quarter as the crisis restrains government investment, damps consumer and business confidence and raises the risk of a ratings downgrade.

First-quarter gross domestic product contracted 0.6% from a year earlier and 2.1% from the quarter before on a seasonally adjusted basis, the National Economic and Social Development Board said. That was worse than the 0.22% and 1.8% drops, respectively, economists had been expecting.

"Unless a resolution to the political crisis is found soon, GDP growth in the second quarter may not be much better," research company Capital Economics warned after the data.

Exports weren't able to offset the domestic weakness. Despite evidence of stronger shipments elsewhere in Asia as Western demand revives, Thai exports fell 0.4% on an annual basis in the first quarter.

Imports shrank even faster—down 8.5% in the first quarter—as domestic demand flagged. Public and private investment declined 19.3% and 7.3% on an annual basis, respectively, and private consumption shrank 3%.

Antigovernment protests have raged in Bangkok since November, seeking to replace Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra and oust the government. Thailand's Constitutional Court ordered Ms. Yingluck removed from office earlier this month.

With no resolution to the political crisis in sight—the country's Election Commission recently said the situation was too unstable for July elections to go ahead as planned—the budget for next fiscal year, due in October, might not be presented on time, ANZ Bank ANZ.AU +0.28% said in a research note.

Any budget delay "will be a negative for growth and increase the risk of ratings downgrades," ANZ said.

Moody's Investors Service, which rates Thailand at Baa 1 with a stable outlook, warned earlier this month that "a continuation of political turmoil would erode the country's core credit strengths."

The state planning board cut its GDP target for the year to 1.5% to 2.5% growth, from 3% to 4% previously. Economists expect full-year growth of 1.8%.

"Without a functional government, public spending will stay shackled," Capital Economics said in its research note. "Spending restrictions on the caretaker government leave it with limited ammunition to boost the economy."

Despite the grimmer outlook, economists don't expect any imminent moves from the central bank, which already has lowered interest rates by a half-percentage point even as its peers across Asia are beginning to tighten policy.

"With the Bank of Thailand having already eased twice since the escalation of political tensions last November, we expect the bar to be high for further rate cuts …," ANZ said.

EUROPE / AFRICA / MIDDLE EAST

Africa

Official statistics put Africa’s GDP at about $1.5tn, but Mthuli Ncube, chief economist at the African Development Bank (AfDB), told delegates at the bank’s annual meeting that in reality the figure is a third larger: $2trn, “if not higher”.

The reason? African countries are revising their economic statistics, measuring for the first time in decades booming sectors such as banking and telecommunications. When earlier this year Nigeria updated its statistics, it nearly doubled its GDP estimate. Ghana found its GDP to be 60% larger than thought in a similar update in 2010.

Ncube says many other African countries, including regional heavyweights such as Kenya, have yet to rebase their GDP, leaving plenty of room for much higher figures.

“Rebasing is producing [on average] a 30% increase,” he said at the meeting in Kigali, Rwanda. “From the work we are doing in rebasing [the GDP], we think the final figure [for Africa’s economic size] will be closer to $2tn, if not higher,” he said.

Although upward revisions of the size of Africa’s GDP will not put more money in the pockets of consumers, it could well have a “feel good” effect on perceptions about the region. With Africa firmly on the radar of multinational companies and global institutional investors, upward revisions could lure considerable inflows of capital.

Stuart Culverhouse, chief economist at Exotix, a frontier markets specialist in London, said the revision would have a positive impact in the psychology of foreign investors. “If countries are bigger, investors are more likely to look at them”.

According to the AfDB, only ten African countries out of 54 meet the international standard of using a base year in their GDP calculations that was five or fewer years ago. Another group of 19 countries use a base year that is at least a decade old and seven countries – including heavyweights such as Sudan – use base years that are more than 20 years old. Worse, commodities-rich Democratic Republic of Congo and Equatorial Guinea use base years from the 1980s.

One method of measuring GDP is to multiply the quantity of all goods and services purchased in a given year by their prices in the base year. Thus, if prices have risen sharply over the past decade, then using a base year from a decade ago will significantly understate the value created, and thus the GDP.

The reality check inherent in rebasing can be huge. When Guinea-Bissau and The Gambia, two tiny West African nations, recalculated the size of their GDP a few years ago, they discovered their economies were more than double the size of what had been reported.

But African officials are not rushing for the champagne. True, the continent’s GDP may be much higher than currently estimated. But the re-calculation will show some of the problems blighting the region, in particular growing income inequality. Africa may be richer, but so far only a minority is benefiting from the wealth.

And higher GDP figures will also highlight other problems, such as a lower tax base compared to the size of the economy, and low spending on health and education.

Euro Zone

Germany was once again the main driver of modest growth in the euro zone as the economies of Italy and the Netherlands contracted, while France's stagnated.

The currency area's continued reliance on its powerhouse underlines the fragility of its recovery, which began in the second quarter of last year but has struggled to gain momentum.

The euro zone's two core economies were on widely divergent trajectories at the start of 2014, with Germany's economy surging head as French economic growth ground to a halt.

Adding to a very mixed picture for the euro zone's largest members, the Netherlands experienced a sharp economic contraction in the first quarter, although that may be transitory and largely due to a very mild winter across Europe. The Netherlands is one of the largest gas-producing countries in Europe and harsh winter weather usually provides a boost to its export-oriented economy.

Figures released earlier recorded a pickup in growth in Spain. But for members of the European Central Bank's governing council, the weakness and narrowness of economic growth in the first quarter will likely underline the need for further stimulus as they prepare for their next meeting in early June.

The ECB's vice president said that it is open to further monetary easing to prevent the euro zone from stagnating under an extended period of low inflation.

"We are determined to act swiftly if required and don't rule out further monetary policy easing," Vitor Constancio said in a speech in Berlin.

The contrast in economic performance with Germany will add to already growing pressure on French President François Hollande.

After increasing taxes sharply in the first 18 months of his presidency, the Socialist leader changed his approach in January, pledging to slash spending instead and cut taxes for business in a bid to get them to invest and recruit.

Germany's statistics agency said that in the three months to March, gross domestic product was 0.8% up on the last three months of 2013. That was the most rapid expansion since the first quarter of 2011, and double the rate of growth recorded in the final quarter of last year.

De Statis said domestic consumption was the main driver of growth, and particularly spending by households and the government. Foreign trade put a damper on growth, and preliminary calculations show exports fell while imports picked up.

That rebalancing of demand may placate some critics of Germany's growth model, who have long complained it has been overly reliant on exports, while its weak domestic spending has held back both the euro zone and global recoveries.

By contrast, French consumers tightened their belts and companies cut back on investment, indicating the wider euro zone recovery remains weak and vulnerable to setbacks.

In the first three months of 2014, the euro zone's second-largest economy failed to grow on a quarter-on-quarter basis, data from the French national statistics bureau, Insee showed. The French economy had grown 0.2% in the final quarter of last year and economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expected a slightly smaller slowdown to 0.1% growth in the first quarter.

Economists had expected Italy's economy to grow by 0.2%, an acceleration from the 0.1% expansion recorded in the previous quarter, Instead, it contracted by 0.1%.

The euro zone exited a long contraction in the second quarter of last year, but growth hasn't been as strong in past economic recoveries and too sluggish to quickly bring unemployment down from record highs. Alongside weak growth, the annual rate of inflation has been below 1.0% since October, and well below the European Central Bank's target of just under 2.0%. The ECB indicated that it is preparing to cut interest rates or take other stimulus measures when its governing council next meets in June.

In France, the economy escaped the deep contraction of the wider eurozone. But it has fluctuated between contractions and slight growth every quarter over the last two years, scuttling Mr. Hollande's pledge to get unemployment to start falling.

The GDP figures from Insee indicate that Mr. Hollande's policies still haven't had an impact as investment by nonfinancial companies fell 0.5% in the first quarter from the previous quarter.

Consumer spending, which has steadied the French economy during the euro zone slump, also fell 0.5% over the same period, indicating rising unemployment and sales tax increases are weighing on households.

Elsewhere in Europe, growth was mixed in the first three months of the year. Within the euro zone, Austria slowed, with its economy expanding by 0.3% compared with a 0.4% rate of growth in the fourth quarter of last year.

The Austrian Institute of Economic Research, known by its German acronym WIFO, described that performance as "only very feeble," and said growth was almost entirely driven by exports.

By contrast, Slovakia's economy accelerated slightly, recording growth of 0.6%, up from 0.5%.

Outside the euro zone, the Czech Republic stagnated, while Romania's economy slowed sharply, albeit from a very strong end to 2013.

Hungary's economy grew by 1.1% during the quarter, a pickup from the 0.7% rate of growth recorded at the end of last year and the fastest expansion recorded in Europe so far.

Among those countries for which data is available, the Netherlands was by far the worst performing economy in Europe during the first quarter. Its GDP shrank by 1.4%, more than reversing a 0.9% expansion in the final three months of last year.

That may not mark the end of the recovery that began in the second quarter of last year, however. The Dutch statistics agency said business investment and industrial production continued to pick up, and weather effects won't have as large an influence in the second quarter.

Cyprus

The contraction of Cyprus's gross domestic product (GDP) slowed down in the first quarter of 2014 compared to the same period last year, according to data released by the Statistics Department.

The department said the GDP of the crisis stricken eastern Mediterranean island shrank by 0.7% in the first quarter (Q1) this year compared with 0.8% shrinkage in Q1 of 2013.

On a year-on-year basis, Cyprus's growth contracted by 4.%, according to the statistics data.

Cyprus was brought back from the brink of bankruptcy in March 2013 when it signed a 10-billion euro bailout with the Eurogroup and the International Monetary Fund.

The deal involved the shutting down of a faltering lender and the recapitalization of its primary lender with depositor's money, leading to an acute shortage of liquidity to fund growth.

The Cypriot economy contracted 5.4% in 2013, well below an original projection by international lenders for a 7.7% regression.

Their projection of this year's contraction was for a 4.7% year-on-year drop in GDP, but Fitch Ratings put its own estimate of the shrinkage at 3.9% when it upgraded Cyprus ratings by a notch in April.

The Eurogroup and the IMF have said they expect Cyprus to return to a modest 0.9% growth in 2015.

Italy

Italy’s economy unexpectedly contracted last quarter, signaling the country’s failure to sustain a pullout from its longest recession on record.

Gross domestic product in the three months through March decreased 0.1% from the fourth quarter, when it rose 0.1%, the national statistics institute, Istat, said in a preliminary report. The decrease contrasts with the median forecast of a 0.2% expansion in a Bloomberg survey of 21 economists. From a year earlier, output shrank 0.5%.

“Italy GDP surprised on the downside,” said Annalisa Piazza, a fixed-income strategist at Newedge Group in London. “Italian activity continues to contract and the already ample output gap keeps widening.”

An unexpected decline in Italy’s industrial production in March prompted concerns about the recovery’s sustainability in the months ahead. In Paris, national statistics office, INSEE, said French GDP (FRGEGDPQ) was unchanged in the three months through March, while the German statistics office said Europe’s largest economy expanded 0.8% in the same period.

Italy’s economy will expand 0.6% this year, less than the government estimates, the Brussels-based European Commission said. That’s in line with Istat’s latest estimate and lower than Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s expectation of a 0.8% expansion.

The euro-region’s third-biggest economy contracted 1.9% in 2013 when the longest slump on record depressed domestic demand amid rising unemployment. Lower-than-anticipated GDP growth this year may hinder Renzi’s efforts to reduce the country’s public debt, which rose in March to 2.12 trillion euros ($2.91 trillion).

The government is trying to revive consumption with a cut to payroll taxes for the country’s lowest-paid employees starting this month. Renzi is also seeking to reduce an unemployment rate that remained at a record-high 12.7% in March for a third month.

Russia

Russia’s first-quarter economic growth slowed to the weakest in a year as the standoff against the U.S. and its allies over Ukraine shrivels up investment.

Gross domestic product advanced 0.9% in January-March from a year earlier after a 2% gain in the previous quarter, the Moscow-based Federal Statistics Service said in an e-mailed statement, providing its first estimate of first-quarter GDP. That was above the 0.7% median estimate of 19 economists in a Bloomberg survey. The Economy Ministry had projected that output expanded 0.8%.

President Vladimir Putin’s move to absorb Crimea in March prompted U.S. and European Union sanctions, bringing the already slowing $2 trillion economy to a near standstill. The International Monetary Fund said April 30 that Russia is already in recession as U.S. and EU leaders warn that they are ready to take further measures if Ukraine’s May 25 presidential election is disrupted.

“Clearly the general trend is slowing economic growth,” Vladimir Bragin, head of research at Alfa Capital Partners Ltd. in Moscow, said by e-mail. “It’s evident in consumption, including through slower lending, and in investment, which has decelerated after the completion of large investment projects by state companies, as well as the completion of construction in Sochi.”

The ruble has weakened more than 5% this year against the dollar, the second-worst performance among 24 emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg after Argentina’s peso.

Russian capital outflows in the first quarter were the largest since the last three months of 2008 when the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. triggered the biggest credit squeeze since the Great Depression. Net outflows totaled $50.6 billion, more than double the $17.8 billion that left in the previous quarter, according to the central bank.

“Investment weakness is due to a combination of much higher borrowing costs and the deterioration of the political and economic outlook. The latter is at least partly due to rising sanction risk from the West,” Vladimir Osakovskiy, chief economist for Russia at Bank of America Corp. in Moscow, said by e-mail before the data release.

The threat of sanctions is more “dangerous” for the economy than the effects of actual measures because it dries up investment, according to Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev. “Obviously, the role of this factor is big as we had a 4.2% drop in fixed-capital investment in the first quarter,” Ulyukayev said.

Russia may face technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of declining output compared with the previous three-month period. The economy is at risk of failing to grow or may even contract 0.1% in April-June compared with January-March, when GDP fell 0.5%, Ulyukayev said.

GDP may grow 0.5% this year, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said at a recent government meeting in Moscow. The economy has recently faced “serious limits,” including a drop in investment and consumer demand, consistent capital outflows and an unfavorable global financial environment, Medvedev said.

First-quarter GDP data “lay to rest any lingering beliefs that Russia’s economy will prove to be relatively resilient in the face of the deepening crisis in Ukraine,” Neil Shearing, chief emerging-markets economist at Capital Economics Ltd., said in a research note.

Zambia

The government anticipates positive growth in Zambia’s economy with real gross domestic product (GDP) projected at 7% in 2014 compared to 6.4% in 2013.

Inflation is also expected to remain at the single digit level and drop to 6.5 %t compared to 7.1% recorded at end 2013.

Ministry of Finance public relations officer Chileshe Kandeta said yesterday that the growth in the country’s GDP and drop in inflation will stem from global developments.

The global growth is projected at 3.7% in 2014.

The projected growth of Zambia’s economy for 2014 is contained in the 2013 Annual Economic Report made available to the Daily Mail in Lusaka

“Global developments will have a positive impact on the domestic economy with real GDP projected at seven percent. This will be driven by strong performance in the mining, transport and communication, and construction sectors.

“Agriculture sector is also expected to recover on account of expected favorable weather conditions,” Mr Kandeta said.

He said global growth is expected to be driven by a projected resurgence in the advanced economies to 2.2% in 2014 from 1.3% in 2013.

He said global growth will in part be supported by the reduction in the United States’ fiscal drag and the recovery in the Euro zone, which is expected to post positive growth of 1.0% from negative 0.4% in 2013.

Mr Kandeta said emerging and developing economies are expected to grow at 5.% from 4.7 % in 2013 with sub-Saharan Africa expected to reach 6.1% from 5.1% in 2013.

“This will be on account of stronger external demand from advanced economies, although domestic weaknesses may remain a concern,” he said.

Mr Kandeta said in the commodity market, the price of oil is expected to be on a downward trend and the projected high production by both Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Companies (OPEC) and non-OPEC producers will sustain the downward pressure.

He said non-fuel commodity prices such as copper are expected to ease on account of expected boost in supply.

“Monetary policy will continue to focus on price and financial system stability. In this regard, inflation is expected to remain in single digit levels on account of the anticipated improvement in food supply complemented by expected stability in fuel prices. Nonetheless, risk of exchange rate volatility may exert inflationary pressure,” Mr Kandeta said.

He said fiscal policy will focus on strengthening domestic resource mobilization to support public infrastructure and human capital development.

Mr Kandeta said efforts will be directed towards increasing domestic revenue collections from 19.3% of GDP in 2013 to at least % in 2014.

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