Coronavirus
Technology Solutions
Future Mask Use
Depends on Lots
of Variables
Celebrities
Infected After
Full
Vaccinations
Steris has a
Range of
Pharmaceutical
Facemasks Using
Meltblowns
UK Cases of the
Variant First
Identified in
India More Than
Double in a Week
Fully Vaccinated
People Do Not
Need Masks In
Many Situations
CDC Guidance On
Masks "Went From
One Extreme To
Another,"
Asian Countries
in Danger of
Suffering the
Fate of India
160 Million Cases of COVID in the World and 3.3 Million
Deaths
Mexican COVID Death Toll Over 600,000
Growing Support
to Provide
Vaccines and
Support for
Latin American
Countries
Herd Immunity is
Not Likely
____________________________________________________________________________
Future Mask Use Depends on Lots
of Variables
Unvaccinated
people should
wear masks
whether there is
a low or high
positivity rate
in their
environment.
Vaccinated
people can avoid
masks most of
the time and in
most locations;
but in certain
locations they
will be
recommended.
The reason is
first that
vaccinated
people can
become infected
and communicate
the disease.
Articles
on two celebrity
examples are
included below.
A second but
weaker
justification is
infection of the
vaccinated
people. Of 85
million
Americans who
have been fully
vaccinated 6,000
have become
infected. Seven
percent of them
have been
hospitalized and
one has died.
So one
out of 85
million is a
pretty low risk.
On the other
hand, this is
the experience
after just a few
months. Will
more vaccinated
people become
infected in the
future?
Will the
efficacy
diminish with
time?
What about
the variants?
Will the
variants
increase the
risk to
vaccinated
individuals?
Will COVID be
similar to other
flu viruses and
become an annual
threat? Those
that predict
this outcome
also advise that
it may be less
virulent as an
annual disease.
The bottom
line is that
there will be
some avoided
risk if
vaccinated
people wear
masks. This risk
may be so low
that people will
determine that
the
inconvenience
outweighs the
risk but many
will not board
planes or enter
crowded football
stadiums without
their masks.
Celebrities
Infected After
Full
Vaccinations
The taping of
Friday's episode
of “Real Time
with Bill Maher”
will be
rescheduled, HBO
said. Guests
were to include
astrophysicist
Neil deGrasse
Tyson and
podcast host Dan
Carlin.
Maher was tested
as part of the
Los Angeles
production's
weekly protocol
for staff, the
channel said,
adding that
“every
precaution” is
taken in
accordance with
the Centers for
Disease Control
and Prevention
guidelines
regarding the
coronavirus.
The comedian and
political gadfly
moved back to
in-studio shows
with a limited
audience late
last summer,
after taping
episodes at his
home in the
early months of
the pandemic.
A lot of people may be wondering, with 8 vaccinated breakthrough
cases on the
Yankees - is
this evidence
the vaccines
aren’t as
effective as we
thought? The
short answer is
no. A brief
thread:
First and most importantly, the Yankees are data from about 50
people. We have
data from tens
of thousands in
trials and
millions in the
real world that
the vaccines
work to prevent
severe disease,
infection, and
transmission.
Don’t lose sight
of that!
Second, we know there’s a lot of variability in how much different
people spread
the virus, and
that the
vaccines aren’t
100% effective.
The Yankees had
an unlucky
high-load index
case, creating a
perfect storm.
Because a
baseball team,
like many
workplaces,
spends a lot of
time indoors
together,
including in
cramped and
poorly
ventilated
spaces. If
transmission is
going to happen,
there’s a lot of
chances for it
to here. It may
be nothing short
of a vaccine
miracle there
were *only* 8
cases!
Which brings me to my last point: How many Yankees *would* have
gotten infected
*without* the
vaccine?
Difficult to
estimate without
a thorough
epidemiologic
investigation.
But say it’s 24
(a bit over half
the travel
party, plausible
based on other
sports
outbreaks). That
would translate
to 8 cases
instead of 24,
or a vaccine
that reduces
infections/transmission
by 67%. That’s
within the realm
of prior
estimates - in
other words,
what we
expected.
Statistics
Show Only 6000
COVID Cases
Among Vaccinated
People With
Seven Percent
Hospitalized and
One Death
COVID-19
vaccines have
provided an
opportunity to
slow the spread
of the virus and
end the
pandemic. Now
scientists are
trying to learn
just how much
the vaccines can
prevent
transmission
from occurring
at all. New data
from the CDC
shows that
COVID-19
infections do
occur in
vaccinated
people, but they
appear
exceptionally
rare.
As of April 14,
the Centers for
Disease Control
and Prevention
had received
reports that 5,814 fully vaccinated people had developed COVID-19 infections. Nearly half of these
infections (45
percent) were in
people at least
60 years old.
Seven percent of
people with
breakthrough
infections—infections
that occur after
complete
vaccination—were
hospitalized and
one percent
died.
With more than 85 million people in the United States fully vaccinated against COVID-19, the CDC has been
cautiously
expanding
guidelines about
what those fully
vaccinated
people can
safely do. The
expansion has
been gradual as
experts awaited
data on not just
how well the
COVID-19
vaccines prevent
disease, but
also whether a
fully vaccinated
individual could
develop an
infection—without
symptoms—and
unknowingly pass
the virus along
to someone else.
The distinction
is important
because many
people do not
realize that
vaccines
primarily
prevent the
disease but not
necessarily
infection. That
means not all
vaccines block
fully vaccinated
people from
transmitting the
pathogen to
others.
“The holy grail
of vaccine
development
always is to
stop people from
ever getting
infected, but it
is monumentally
difficult to get
that,” says Jason Kindrachuk,
an assistant
professor of
virology at the
University of
Manitoba in
Winnipeg,
Canada. That
holy grail is
called
sterilizing
immunity,
completely
protecting a
person from
disease as well
as stopping the
microbe from
getting into
cells in the
first place, he
says.
Four months
after the Food
and Drug
Administration
authorized the
first vaccines
against
COVID-19, the
CDC has enough
data to suggest
the vaccines
substantially
reduce
infections—and
therefore reduce
the possibility
of a vaccinated
person infecting
others.
Vaccines work by
mimicking an
infection in the
body to trick
the immune
system into
mounting a
defense against
it—and then
remembering what
to do if they
see the same
pathogen again,
explains Juliet Morrison, an assistant professor of microbiology at the University
of California,
Riverside.
After any
infection, “you
have white blood
cells,
specifically T
and B cells,
that hang around
and remember
that initial
infection so
that if you do
become infected
again, these
memory cells
respond by
immediately
multiplying
their numbers,”
she says. The B
cells produce
antibodies that
bind to
circulating
viruses and
infected cells
while T cells
“basically punch
holes in the
infected cell
and pump them
full of these
toxins that tell
the infected
cell to commit
suicide.”
A vaccine
induces the same
immune memory as
an infection so
if the real
virus comes
along, the
immune system
switches on
immediately and
produces T
cells, B cells,
and antibodies.
“That will allow
you to clear the
infection
without you even
recognizing that
you’ve gotten
sick,” Morrison
says.
What’s key,
however, is that
you did actually
have an
infection. That
is, the virus
entered cells
and began
replicating. The
immune system
simply shut it
all down before
the virus or the
immune system
itself began
damaging
tissue—the
disease process,
explains
Kindrachuk.
If the virus
enters cells and
begins
replicating but
never causes
disease, that’s
an asymptomatic
infection. With
presymptomatic
infections, on
the other hand,
a person goes on
to develop
symptoms and is
especially
contagious in
the days before
symptoms appear,
says Natalie Dean, an assistant professor of biostatistics at the University
of Florida in
Gainesville.
“We know from
contact tracing
data unrelated
to vaccines that
people Morrison
adds that
asymptomatic
people probably
have an
excellent
initial immune
response to slow
down how quickly
the virus can
copy itself,
“but not enough
that viral
replication is
completely shut
off,” she says.
“That’s why they
could still shed
virus but we’re
not seeing any
disease
symptoms.”
Supporting that
idea is the fact
that the
severity of
COVID-19 disease
tends to
correlate with
the total number
of viruses in
the body, called
viral load,
Kindrachuk
says. Early research showed that people with lower viral loads transmit less virus, further
suggesting that
asymptomatic
infections are
less contagious
than symptomatic
ones. But less
is not zero:
People with
asymptomatic
infections still
have replicating
viruses in their
system that they
can transmit to
others.
When the
vaccines were
authorized,
experts did not
yet know whether
the shots could
prevent
infections
entirely or
whether
vaccinated
people could
develop an
asymptomatic—but
still
contagious—infection.
Steris has a
Range of
Pharmaceutical
Facemasks Using
Meltblowns
Sterile
cleanroom face
masks are
available in a
variety of
styles to meet
the preferences
of each
manufacturing
area. The most
popular styles
include a unique
set of side
extensions,
which expand the
coverage of the
face mask. These
face masks are
made from an
inner and outer
facing of
spunbonded
polypropylene
and a 100%
meltblown
polypropylene
media layer.
Styles are
available with
either tie or
top and bottom
elastic loops to
secure the face
mask in place.
Features of
these face masks
include 99%+
bacterial
filtration
efficiency (@ 3
microns), high
breathability, a
large, pleated
facial pocket
and an aluminum
nosepiece for
superior fit.
Sterile
cleanroom face
masks are
sterilized in
lots using
ethylene oxide
gas. Each face
mask is packaged
in a clean-peel
pouch and can be
double or triple
packaged. Each
pouch includes a
lot number for
traceability.
UK Cases of the Variant
First Identified
in India More
Than Double in a
Week
UK cases of the Covid-19 variant
first detected
in India have
risen from 520
to 1,313 cases
this week,
according to
Public Health
England (PHE).
Health authorities say they plan to
implement
“additional
control
measures,”
including rapid
testing and
tracing, in
areas where
there is
increased
spread.
The Indian variant was named a
"variant of
concern" by the
UK last week
after a rise in
cases. The
variant has
spread most
across the North
West and in
London, where
measures such as
mobile testing,
door-to-door
testing and
vaccine buses,
PHE said in a
statement on
Thursday.
“We need to act collectively and
responsibly to
ensure that
variants do not
impact on the
progress we have
all made to
drive down
levels of
Covid-19 and the
increased
freedom that
brings,” said
Dr. Susan
Hopkins,
Covid-19
strategic
response
director at PHE.
England enters phase two of its plan
to lift
restrictions on
Monday, under
which indoor
dining will
reopen.
Fully
Vaccinated
People Do Not
Need Masks In
Many Situations
People fully
vaccinated
against Covid-19
do not need to
wear masks or
practice social
distancing
indoors or
outdoors, except
under certain
circumstances,
the director of
the US Centers
for Disease
Control and
Prevention
announced
Thursday.
"If you are
fully
vaccinated, you
can start doing
the things that
you had stopped
doing because of
the pandemic,"
Dr. Rochelle
Walensky said
during a White
House Covid-19
briefing. "We
have all longed
for this moment
when we can get
back to some
sense of
normalcy.
CDC says
masks not
necessary for
fully vaccinated
people under
most conditions.
People fully
vaccinated
against Covid-19
do not need to
wear masks or
practice social
distancing
indoors or
outdoors, except
under certain
circumstances,
the director of
the US Centers
for Disease
Control and
Prevention
announced
Thursday.
"If you are
fully
vaccinated, you
can start doing
the things that
you had stopped
doing because of
the pandemic,"
Dr. Rochelle
Walensky said
during a White
House Covid-19
briefing. "We
have all longed
for this moment
when we can get
back to some
sense of
normalcy.
Calling it an "exciting and powerful
moment,"
Walensky said
the science
supports the updated
CDC guidance that "anyone
who is fully
vaccinated can
participate in
indoor and
outdoor
activities --
large or small
-- without
wearing a mask
or physical
distancing."
She cited three studies -- one from
Israel and two
from the United
States -- that
show vaccines
work.
The Israeli study, which was
published in
the Journal of the American Medical
Association, showed the vaccine was 97%
effective
against
symptomatic
Covid-19 and 86%
effective
against
asymptomatic
infection in
over 5,000
health care
workers.
There have been reports of
"breakthrough"
infections among
vaccinated
people in the
United States --
a small number
among more than
117 million
people in the
United States
who are now
fully
vaccinated.
Walensky noted
that "the
resulting
infection is
more likely to
have a lower
viral load, may
be shorter in
duration, and
likely less risk
of transmission
to others."
Walensky's announcement has a few
caveats. She
warned that
people who are
immune
compromised
should speak
with their
doctors before
giving up their
masks.
The requirement to wear masks during
travel -- on
buses, trains,
planes and
public
transportation
-- still stands,
Walensky said.
Guidance for
travel will be
updated as
science emerges.
People who develop Covid-19 symptoms,
even those who
are vaccinated,
should put their
mask back on and
get tested,
Walensky said.
The science is clear, too, for
unvaccinated
people, Walensky
said: "You
remain at risk
of mild or
severe illness,
of death, or
spreading the
disease to
others. You
should still
mask and you
should get
vaccinated right
away."
But once someone is fully vaccinated
-- two weeks
after the final
dose -- "you can
shed your mask,"
she said.
Some people may choose to continue
wearing masks
even if they are
fully
vaccinated, and
that's OK,
federal Covid-19
response leaders
said Thursday.
"People have to make their own
personal
choice," Dr.
Anthony Fauci,
director of the
National
Institute of
Allergy and
Infectious
Diseases, said
during the White
House Covid-19
briefing.
"There's absolutely nothing wrong
with an
individual who
has a certain
level of risk
aversion, as we
know the risk is
extremely low of
getting infected
whether you're
indoors or
outdoors. But
there are those
people who don't
want to take
that bit of a
risk and there's
nothing wrong
with that and
they shouldn't
be criticized."
CDC Guidance On Masks "Went
From One Extreme
To Another,"
CNN medical
analyst Dr.
Leana Wen said
she was
surprised to
hear the updated
recommendation
from the US
Centers for
Disease Control
and Prevention
that vaccinated
Americans can
largely end mask
use.
“Frankly, I was
shocked by this
announcement. I
think they went
from one extreme
to another,”
said Wen, former
Baltimore City
health
commissioner.
“And the major
step that’s
missing here is
how do we know
that people are
telling the
truth?”
While Wen said
she was pleased
to hear a strong
message on the
effectiveness of
vaccines, she
said the
guidance may be
more confusing
than clear-cut.
“If you’re go to
the
grocery store,
maybe you’re
fully vaccinated
… but who is
going to be
checking to see
if others
are also
vaccinated? So
what does that
mean if I’m
bringing my son
— my 4-year-old,
who is not
fully vaccinated
— now he’s going
to be in
a grocery store
potentially
exposed to
people who are
not vaccinated,
who could be of
danger to him.
And so I guess I
am kind of
befuddled as
to where this
guidance came
from. I think
there are a lot
of steps that
are missing,”
Wen said.
She said that
she thinks the
"right
incentive" needs
to be in place.
"If now we're
saying you can
do whatever you
want, we're not
going to check
whether you're
vaccinated,
then what's in
it for people to
get vaccinated?"
she asked.
Asian Countries
in Danger of
Suffering the
Fate of India
Most of Nepal is
under lockdown,
its hospitals
overwhelmed.
Bangladesh
suspended
vaccination
sign-ups after
promised
supplies were
cut off. Sri
Lanka’s hopes of
a tourism-led
economic revival
have collapsed.
As India battles
a horrific surge of the coronavirus,
the effects have
spilled over to
its neighbors.
Most nearby
countries have
sealed their
borders. Several
that had been
counting on
Indian-made
vaccines are
pleading with
China and Russia
instead.
The question is
whether that
will be enough,
in a region that
shares many of
the risk factors
that made India so vulnerable:
densely
populated
cities, heavy
air pollution,
fragile health
care systems and
large
populations of
poor workers who
must weigh the
threat of the
virus against
the possibility
of starvation. Though the countries’ outbreaks can’t all be linked to India, officials across the region have expressed growing dread over how easily their fates could follow that of their neighbor.
I feel like it’s
a world war
situation,” said
Dr. Rajan Pandey,
a physician in
Banke, a Nepali
district along
the India
border, who said
he was turning
away 30 patients
asking for
hospital beds
every day.
If lockdown was
enforced two
weeks ago,
borders were
closed and
migrant workers
returning from
India were
quarantined
better, this
situation could
have been
avoided,” he
said.
As is, he added,
“we are still
waiting for the
worst.”
Nepal shows most
clearly how the
crisis has
rippled. After
an initial wave
last year, cases
in the Himalayan
nation of 30
million had
plunged by
January.
Residents
gathered for
Nepali New Year
celebrations
last month, and
hundreds of
thousands of
migrant workers
returned to
India, where
they go each
year in search
of jobs.
But as the new
surge began
raging across
India, many of
those workers
returned across
the porous,
1,100-mile
border. With
them came the
virus.
Now, Nepal is
recording as
many as 9,000
infections per
day, with more
than 40 percent
of tests coming
back positive.
More than 4,200
people had died
by Wednesday
evening. Experts
say the cases
are likely being
undercounted.
Still, imported
cases are not
the only reason
for the crisis
engulfing Nepal.
As in India, the
government did
not expand
health
facilities when
coronavirus
cases appeared
to be under
control last
year, and it was
slow to enforce
social
distancing
restrictions
when it became
clear that they
were not. Critics have pointed to huge, mask less rallies in India hosted by Prime Minister Narendra Modi even as infections rose. Likewise, both the ruling and opposition parties in Nepal held large political gatherings after the prime minister dissolved Parliament in December.
Because of this,
the virus
reached every
corner of the
country,” said
Dr. Krishna
Prasad Paudel,
the director of
the epidemiology
and disease
control division
at Nepal’s
health ministry.
160 Million
Cases of COVID
in the World and
3.3 Million
Deaths
The global tally
for the
coronavirus-borne
illness climbed
above 160.4
million on
Thursday,
according to data aggregated by Johns Hopkins
University, while the death toll rose above 3.3 million. The U.S. continues
to lead the
world in cases
and deaths by
wide margins,
with 32.8
million cases
and 583,685
deaths, or about
a fifth of the
worldwide
tallies.
More than 60
million people
in the U.S. have
been immunized
with the
two-dose, mRNA
vaccine
developed by the
two companies.
India is second
to the U.S. by
cases at 23.7
million and
third by
fatalities at
258,317,
although those
numbers are held
to be widely
undercounted as
the Indian
crisis has
overwhelmed its
healthcare
system. Brazil
is third with
15.3 million
cases and second
by fatalities at
428,034.
Mexico has the
fourth-highest
death toll at
219,590 and 2.4
million cases,
or 15th highest
tally. The U.K.
has 4.5 million
cases and
127,901 deaths,
the
fifth-highest in
the world and
highest in
Europe.
Mexican COVID
Death Toll Over
600,000
The coronavirus
has killed over
600,000 people
in Mexico,
according to
health
researchers who
found that the
Latin American
nation's
Covid-19 death
toll is almost
three times
higher than the
official total.
The Institute
for Health
Metrics and
Evaluation at
the University
of Washington
School of
Medicine published an analysis Thursday estimating that 617,127
people have died
from Covid-19 in
Mexico based on
adjusted excess
death rates.
The number is
183 percent
higher than
Mexico’s
official death
toll, which rose
to 218,007 on
Wednesday.
“As terrible as
the Covid-19
pandemic
appears, this
analysis shows
that the actual
toll is
significantly
worse,” Dr.
Chris Murray,
director of the
Institute for
Health Metrics
and Evaluation,
said in a
statement.
In Mexico, large
numbers of
people have died
at home without
being tested for
Covid-19.
Additionally,
Mexico’s testing
rate remains
low, at about
51,000 tests per
million
people, according
to German
statistics
portal Statista.
But the
challenge to
accurately
account for all
Covid-19 deaths
echoes around
the world,
Murray said,
adding that many
Covid-19 deaths
go unreported
because most
countries only
report deaths
that occur in
hospitals or
among patients
with a confirmed
infection.
The Institute
for Health
Metrics and
Evaluation
estimates the
coronavirus has
killed
approximately
6.9 million
people globally,
more than double
what official
numbers show,
meaning
"Covid-19 deaths
are
significantly
underreported in
almost every
country."
Based on the
estimates,
Mexico has
recorded the
third highest
number of
Covid-19 deaths,
after the United
States and
India.
Researchers
estimate that
Covid-19 has
claimed the
lives of 905,289
people in the
United States,
which is about
56 percent
higher than its
official death
toll of about
575,000.
In India,
researchers
estimate more
than 654,000
people have died
of Covid-19,
which is also
about three
times higher
than its
official death
toll of 221,181.
According to data
compiled by
Johns Hopkins
University, the global Covid-19 death toll is about 3.25 million and Mexico
ranks fourth for
fatalities,
behind the
United States,
Brazil and
India.
Mexican
officials
admitted in
March that the
country's true
Covid-19 death
toll is
significantly
higher than
originally
reported,
estimating
deaths were only
60 percent
higher than
official data.
Their estimate
of about 320,000
fatalities is
dwarfed by that
of the Institute
for Health
Metrics and
Evaluation.
“Many countries
have devoted
exceptional
effort to
measuring the
pandemic’s toll,
but our analysis
shows how
difficult it is
to accurately
track a new and
rapidly
spreading
infectious
disease," Murray
said in the
statement.
“Understanding
the true number
of Covid-19
deaths not only
helps us
appreciate the
magnitude of
this global
crisis, but also
provides
valuable
information to
policymakers
developing
response and
recovery plans.”
Growing Support
to Provide
Vaccines and
Support for
Latin American
Countries
Rising rates of
COVID-19
infections in
Brazil and other
countries in
Latin America
are posing a
risk to the U.S.
in its own
battle to
overcome the
pandemic.
Advocates are
pushing for
increased
efforts to
support global
vaccinations,
especially in
poorer
countries, while
Latin Americans
of means travel
to the United
States to take
advantage of a
surplus of
shots.
The Biden
administration
has provided an
initial down
payment of $2
billion to the
global COVID-19
vaccine alliance
(COVAX); shipped
emergency
materials to
India to help
stock up its
vaccine
development; and
“loaned”
millions of
vaccines to
Mexico and
Canada.
Democratic
lawmakers have
called on the
administration
to prioritize
Latin America in
receiving any
surplus of
vaccines, but
officials are
tight-lipped
over making any
immediate and
pronounced
commitments.
In Latin
America,
attitudes toward
vaccination have
more or less
mirrored those
in the United
States, with
some people
eager to receive
inoculation and
others either
distrustful or
politically
disinclined from
taking the
vaccines.
But the lack
of available
vaccinations has
added complexity
to the process
in a continent
that hosts some
of the world's
most dense
population
centers, as well
as some of the
most
difficult-to-access
remote areas.
Inequality
has been
exacerbated
throughout the
region by the
pandemic, as
most people
can't afford
many basic
preventive
measures, while
elites more
comfortably
access
protective
equipment,
exercise social
distancing and
seek out
vaccines.
This has also
contributed to a
rise in vaccine
tourism to the
United States,
including by
middle-class
Mexicans within
driving distance
of the
U.S.-Mexico
border.
“Because the
border region is
so integrated,
it's very easy
to cross the
border to get
vaccinated and
then return to
your place of
origin,” said
Dolia Estévez, a
senior Mexican
correspondent in
Washington who
has covered
Mexican vaccine
tourism.
By some
estimates, more
than a million
Mexicans have
crossed the
border by foot,
car or plane to
get vaccinated.
That includes
at least two
members of
Mexico's Supreme
Court, one of
whom had to
cancel her
vaccination trip
to Texas after
a report
by Estévez made
her plans public.
The Texas
Department of
Health says that
99.06 percent of
vaccine
recipients are
residents, with
only 0.04 of
those who
received
vaccines hailing
from another
country.
Herd Immunity
is Not Likely
Early in the
pandemic, there
was hope that
the world would
one day achieve
herd immunity,
the point when
the coronavirus
lacks enough
hosts to spread
easily. But over
a year later,
the virus is
crushing India
with a fearsome
second wave and
surging in
countries from
Asia to Latin
America.
Experts now say
it is changing
too quickly, new
more contagious
variants are
spreading too
easily and vaccinations are happening too
slowly for herd immunity to
be within reach
anytime soon.
That means if
the virus
continues to run
rampant through
much of the
world, it is
well on its way
to becoming
endemic, an
ever-present
threat.
Virus variants
are tearing
through places
where people
gather in large
numbers with few
or no pandemic
protocols, like
wearing masks
and distancing,
according to Dr. David Heymann, a professor
of infectious
disease
epidemiology at
the London
School of
Hygiene and
Tropical
Medicine.
While the outbreak in India is
capturing the
most attention,
Dr. Heymann said
the pervasive
reach of the
virus means that
the likelihood
is growing that
it will persist
in most parts of
the world.
As more people contract the virus,
developing some
level of
immunity, and
the pace of
vaccinations
accelerates,
future outbreaks
won’t be on the
scale of those
devastating
India and
Brazil, Dr.
Heymann said.
Smaller
outbreaks that
are less deadly
but a constant
threat should be
expected, Dr.
Heymann said.
“This is the
natural
progression of
many infections
we have in
humans, whether
it is
tuberculosis or
H.I.V.,” said
Dr. Heymann, a
former member of
the Epidemiology
Intelligence
Service at the
Centers for
Disease Control
and Prevention
and a former
senior official
at the World
Health
Organization.
“They have
become endemic
and we have
learned to live
with them and we
learn how to do
risk assessments
and how to
protect those we
want to
protect.”
Vaccines that
are highly
effective
against Covid
were developed
rapidly, but
global
distribution has
been plodding
and unequal. As
rich countries hoard
vaccine doses,
poorer countries
face big
logistical
challenges to
distributing the
doses they
manage to get
and vaccine
hesitancy is an
issue
everywhere. And
experts warn the
world is getting
vaccinated too
slowly for there
to be much hope
of ever
eliminating the
virus.
Only two
countries have
fully vaccinated
more than half
of their
populations,
according to
the Our World in Data project
at the
University of
Oxford. They are
Israel and the
East African
nation of the
Seychelles, an
archipelago with
a population of
fewer than
100,000. And
just a handful
of other
countries have
at least
partially
vaccinated
nearly 50
percent or more,
including
Britain, tiny
Bhutan, and the
United States.
Less than 10
percent of
India’s vast
population is at
least partly
vaccinated,
offering little
check to its
onslaught of
infections.
In Africa, the
figure is
slightly more
than 1 percent.
Still, public
health experts
say a relatively
small number of
countries,
mostly island
nations, have
largely kept the
virus under
control and
could continue
keeping it at
bay after
vaccinating
enough people.
New Zealand,
through
stringent
lockdowns and
border closures,
has all
but eliminated
the virus.
Dr. Michael
Baker, an
epidemiologist
at the
University of
Otago who
helped devise the country’s coronavirus
response,
said New Zealand
would likely
achieve herd
immunity by
immunizing its
population, but
it has a long
way to go with
only about 4.4 percent of New Zealanders at least partially vaccinated.
“All of the
surveys show
there is a
degree of
vaccine
hesitancy in New
Zealand, but
also a lot of
people are very
enthusiastic,”
Dr. Baker said.
“So I think we
will probably
get there in the
end.”
While new daily
cases have
remained at
near-world
record levels,
the number of
deaths has
dropped from a
peak in
February, going
against the
normal pattern
of high cases
followed
eventually by
high deaths. If
that trendline
continues, it
could offer a
glimmer of hope
for a future
scenario that
scientists are
rooting for:
Even as the
virus spreads
and seems to be
hurtling toward
becoming
endemic, it
could become a
less lethal
threat that can
be managed with vaccines that
are updated
periodically to
protect against
variants.
“It may be
endemic, but not
in a
life-threatening
way,” Dr. Michael Merson,
a professor of
global health at
Duke University
and New York
University, and
a former
director of the
World Health
Organization’s
Global Program
on AIDS, said.
“It may be more
like what we see
with young kids,
a common cold
like disease.”
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