Coronavirus
Technology Solutions
COVID Worries
Are Not All
Rational
Mask Market will
be Determined by
Life Quality
Perceptions
Spunmelt
Capacity
Increasing
Rapidly
____________________________________________________________________________
COVID Worries
Are Not All
Rational
The following
fable has been
widely
circulated in
the last few
days and
reported in the
NY Times.
Guido Calabresi,
a federal judge
and Yale law
professor,
invented a
little fable
that he has been
telling law
students for
more than three
decades.
Mask Market will
be Determined by
Life Quality
Perceptions
The previous
article
indicated
choices
including masks
are made in part
on risks that
are observed to
be salient. What
is salient is
likely to be new
rather than what
is of highest
risk? So
irrational
beliefs will be
a factor in mask
selection. Since
the risk of
COVID has been
real for more
than a year it
may be no longer
as salient to
the individual.
There are other
irrational
beliefs based on
perceived life
quality
enhancement.
Take
the
market for
sports footwear.
Because of
perceived life
quality impacts
purchasers are
spending
billions of
dollars per year
for shoes that
are ten times
more costly than
functional
equivalents.
Hoodies are more
uncomfortable
than masks and
yet they are
valued highly by
many teenagers.
CATE is an
acronym for
Comfortable,
Attractive,
Tight fitting,
Efficient. Mask
sales in the
future will be
determined by
how well the
product fits
these needs.
Comfortable and
attractive are
drivers
based on
emotional life
quality impacts.
Tight fitting
and efficient
are drivers
based on
extending life
and avoiding
sickness. Tight
fitting and
efficient masks
may be more
uncomfortable
than loose
fitting masks
but they offer
better
protection.
The cost is also
a function of
the performance.
The rational and
emotional
drivers lead to
mask decisions.
There is a
measurement tool
which takes both
into account and
can be used to
predict the mask
market.
This metric
measures all
harm and good.
This was
developed by
McIlvaine and is
called Quality
Enhanced Life
Days (QELD).
Below is a link
to a feature
article on it in
Healthcare
Development
Magazine.
http://www.mcilvainecompany.com/Decision_Tree/subscriber/Masks/QELD/Quality_Enhanced_Life_Days.htm
Most
sustainability
rating tools
rely on third
party
determination of
political and
social impacts
of any decision.
QELD is straight
forward and most
valuable because
it represents
the actual life
quality choices
being made by
the group
impacted by the
decision. If a
majority of the
group believes
that allowing
the elderly to
die at an
accelerated rate
is worth the
life quality
benefits of mask
avoidance, then
this will be
reflected in the
QELD rating. A
group is defined
as eligible
voters.
The basis of
QELD is that
people would
rather live only
80 years,
socialize and
eat ice
cream rather
than to 100 as
risk adverse
hermits. The
group would
rather raise the
speed limit to
65 mph knowing
that it
statistically
will shorten
their lives by a
day or two for
the life quality
benefits of
shorter travel
times.
Insights on the
future mask
market can be
gained by
substantial
effort to
quantify and
even shape the
life quality
impacts of
wearing masks.
The fact that
CATE masks are
both comfortable
and attractive
is very
important in
assessing life
quality impacts.
The negative
health life
quality risks
need to be
determined for
all the
different
combinations of
variables. They
include general
variables such
as
·
Immunity percent
in the group
based on the
percent which
are vaccinated
·
testing activity
·
virus positivity
testing percent
·
ambient air
pollution and
wildfires
They include
individual
variables
·
age and health
·
environment
·
travel
·
work
·
leisure time
·
infectious
illnesses such
as colds
If an individual
is fully
vaccinated and
is running
outdoors in his
leisure time the
risk is
negligible. So
he may justify
not wearing a
mask. On the
other hand if it
is a crowded
path he may want
to wear a mask
just as a
courtesy to
others who may
not know he is
vaccinated.
This decision
will also be
influenced by
the positivity
rate in the
area. In India
where the crisis
is peaking the
need to wear
masks will be
substantially
different than
in Israel where
infection rates
are low.
Even in a worst
case scenario it
is unlikely that
the market will
shrink to pre
COVID levels. In
many Asian
countries the
courtesy mask
has become
common. This is
likely to become
a worldwide life
quality
enhancement. The
lack of a mask
may someday be
equated with
spitting on the
sidewalk.
At high virus
load (High V)
the negative
life quality
impacts are high
compared to any
negative life
quality impacts
of wearing masks
such as
discomfort or
unattractiveness.
However at low
virus loads
uncomfortable
and unattractive
mask life
quality impacts
may outweigh the
benefits in the
minds of the
wearer. On the
other hand
comfortable and
attractive
(CA) masks have
lower negative
life quality
impacts than the
virus (Low V).
The average
person is
infectious 14
days per year.
In the future it
is likely that
masks will be
worn by anyone
with a cold. A
waiter at a
restaurant or
hairdresser who
is infectious
will also need
to wear a mask.
Establishment
owners will
likely prefer
that all service
personnel wear
masks rather
than make the
public aware of
infectious
servers.
Regulations
should be
based on
life quality
risk reduction
benefits
offsetting
discomfort and
inconvenience. A
person might be
willing to give
up a month of an
85 year life in
order to avoid
wearing a
comfortable and
attractive mask
for a year. He
might be willing
to give up two
months to avoid
wearing an
uncomfortable
mask for a year.
But the stakes
could be much
higher. They
could involve
years of life
lost for the
individual or
his friends and
family. A
teenager
responsible for
the death of a
grandparent
would in
retrospect
likely be
willing to give
up years of life
to have avoided
this.
The mask
discomfort and
inconvenience is
variable. Rules
can require
wearing masks
only in certain
settings or all
the
time. The
life quality
benefits are a
function of how
many illnesses
and deaths are
avoided.
There is the
discussion of
public health
versus
individual
liberty. In most
cases it is a
public heath
issue where
government has
the right and
obligation to
protect citizens
from dangerous
behavior from
others.
Tight fitting
and efficient
masks are
proving to be
the best
protection
against COVID.
Social
distancing and
therefore
occupancy are
not nearly as
effective. The
requirement for
tight fitting
and efficient
masks along with
100% occupancy
can pose a risk
lower than 25%
occupancy with
inefficient
loose fitting
masks.
Spunmelt
Capacity
Increasing
Rapidly
Nonwoven
Industry
recently
assessed the
increase in
spunmelt
capacity which
is underway. The
big increase in
demand for
medical fabrics
and other
personal
protective
equipment has
led to a surge
in demand for
spunmelt
nonwovens
globally.
Industry
estimates put
the level of new
investment in
2020 at about
210,000 tons
with about
three-quarters
of this capacity
centered on
Reicofil 5
technology. In
2021, another
166,000 tons of
spunmelt
technology is
expected to be
commissioned.
Avgol is
relocating an
existing asset
from Israel to
India as part of
an immediate
strategic
investment in
the region.
Avgol, an
Indorama
Ventures Limited
company, leads
the global
hygiene market
with a
comprehensive
range of
ultra-lightweight
spunmelt
nonwoven
fabrics.
Relocation of
the Avgol line
from Barkan,
Israel to India
is underway now,
with
installation
expected to be
completed by end
of 2021.
Avgol entered
the market in
India in 2018
when it
completed its
first spunmelt
line, which was
reported at the
time to be a
non-Reicofil
asset. At the
time, the
company said the
investment was
intended to help
support existing
customers as
they entered the
Indian market.
Avgol also has
spunmelt
operations in
North Carolina,
Russia and
China.
Berry Global
continues to
invest heavily
in spunbond
nonwovens.
Recent
announcements
from the company
include a
state-of-the-art
Reicofil 5 SMS
asset to serve
the rapidly
growing medical
fabrics markets
in the region
and around the
globe. Start-up
of the line is
targeted for
late 2022.
Additionally,
Berry is
investing $8
million in new
equipment and
enhancements to
existing
production lines
at its
Statesville, NC,
site, to further
optimize its
production of
in-demand
spunmelt for
applications
including
fabrication of
medical gowns,
face masks, and
other personal
protection
equipment. The
additional
equipment and
expanded
capacity are
expected to be
operational in
December 2021.
Berry reported
that face mask
and N95
respirator
demand alone
created
significant
increases for
meltblown and
spunbond
materials used
to make those
products, in
addition to SMS
materials used
for other
infection
control PPE
products.”
In addition to
significantly
expanding
capacity to
support growing
market needs,
these
investments,
combined with
Berry’s market
leading know-how
and proprietary
raw material
blends, will
expand the
company’s
portfolio of the
highest quality
and highest
performing
materials in the
market, which
provide
consumers with
improved visual,
tactile and
comfort
attributes.
Fibertex
Personal Care is
investing
approximately
$40 million to
add new lines at
its sites in
Malaysia and the
U.S. The
Malaysian site
will be expanded
with the
addition of a
specialty
nonwovens line
while a printing
line will be
added to the
U.S. site in
Asheboro, NC.
Both lines are
expected to
begin operations
in the second
half of 2021.
Fibertex
Personal Care
currently
operates five
lines at two
sites in
Malaysia, which
make about
90,000 tons of
spunmelt
nonwovens
capacity. Its
most recent line
came onstream in
mid-2017.
Increased wealth
and growth in
the Asian middle
class segment is
leading to
growth in the
hygiene market
of approximately
10%.
Fitesa, Brazil’s
largest
nonwovens
producer is
adding two
large-scale
Reicofil
spunmelt lines
as part of an
ambitious global
expansion plan,
announced late
last year. At
its site in
Simpsonville,
SC, Fitesa is in
the process of
adding a
state-of-the-art
Reicofil 5
spunmelt
nonwovens line
with startup
scheduled for
the second half
of next year.
Since 2011, more
than 80,000
metric tons of
capacity have
been installed
with 138 jobs
created at
Simpsonville.
Most recently,
Fitesa started a
meltblown line
there to supply
nonwovens for
the production
of face masks
and respirators.
Elsewhere in the
world, Fitesa is
adding spunbond
capacity in
Brazil as well
as meltblown
lines in Brazil,
Germany and
Italy as part of
a 55,000-ton
global expansion
plan announced
in November.
Fitesa recently
completed
construction on
a multibeam
Reicofil line in
Cosmoplis,
Brazil. This new
line is being
described as one
of the most
advanced
spunmelt
nonwovens lines
in the region.
In addition to
these new line
investments,
Fitesa is
increasing
production
volumes,
modernizing
assets and
enhancing the
flexibility of
the current
asset base.
These efforts
will add another
20,000 metric
tons of spunmelt
capacity in the
second and third
quarters of
2021. The
capacity, which
will be split
evenly between
the U.S. and
Europe, will
serve the
healthcare and
hygiene markets.
In 2020, Fitesa
added a second
spunmelt line to
its CNC
International
operation in
Thailand. Fitesa
acquired a share
in this
operation in
2019.
PFNonwovens has
announced a
multi-phase
expansion to its
facility in
Hazleton, PA.
Six months after
saying it would
add a Reicofil 5
line at the
facility, the
company
announced in
December 2020 it
would add a
second new line
there. These
investments will
grow its
manufacturing
capacity and
help the company
expand in the
medical and
hygiene markets.
Phase two of the
expansion, which
will involve a
second new
production line,
is scheduled to
be complete in
2022. The
company has not
yet revealed
details on this
new line. It
will be the
eighth nonwoven
line located in
PFNonwovens’
Hazleton, PA,
site, which it
acquired from
First Quality
Nonwovens in
2018.
In the Czech
Republic,
PFNonwovens is
completing work
on a
semi-commercial
line in Znojmo.
The new line,
based on
Reicofil 5
technology,
allows the
company to
supply products
which cannot be
produced
currently with
conventional
methods. It uses
bicomponent
technologies,
offers a wide
range of fiber
types and
profiles and
enables the use
of a variety of
raw materials.
Another
significant
element of this
technology is
the nonwoven
textile bonding
system, which is
an alternative
to the presently
used
conventional
systems. The
line is
considered a
fundamental
building block
to PFN’s newly
built global
innovation
center expected
to help the
company achieve
significant
success in
research,
testing and
commercialization
of new products.
Meanwhile,
PFNonwovens has
streamlined its
operation
through the
divestment of
its Wuxi, China,
operation to
Jofo Nonwovens.
The site, which
was also a part
of First
Quality,
contains one
spunmelt line.
Jofo has already
announced plans
to expand the
site with an
additional line.
Spunweb is in
the process of
adding two new
polypropylene
spunbond
lines—an SSS and
SS. These
investments will
bring the
company’s
capacity to
35,000 MT/year
by Q3 of 2021.
These new lines
will meet the
ever growing
demands of its
existing
customers and
also aims add
new customers in
the medical,
packaging and
hygiene
segments. The
company expects
the new lines to
be complete by
the end of
August 2021, on
schedule.
Spunweb
currently
operates three
polypropylene
spunbond
nonwovens lines
which produce
11,000 metric
tons per year
put together. It
started its
first production
line in 2016
with the vision
to meet the
needs of the
hygiene and
medical sectors
with high
quality nonwoven
fabrics at
affordable
prices and
shorter delivery
schedules.
The largest
manufacturer of
polypropylene-based
spunbond
nonwovens in
Asia, Toray has
facilities in
China,
Indonesia, Korea
and India.
However,
production on
its first Indian
investment, a
18,000-ton-per-year
spunbond line,
has been delayed
due to the
Covid-19
epidemic.
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