Coronavirus Technology Solutions

July 2, 2020

Beating the Coronavirus is Like a Golf Match Where You Need the Right Clubs

Goldman Sachs Says Mandatory Masks can Save the U.S over $1 trillion

U.S. Auto Industry Sales could be off 25 Percent This Year

Oil Demand has Peaked

Daily COVID Cases Exceed 160,000

COVID Air Curtain and CFD used to Eliminate Dead Spots

COVID is a Wake Up Call for High Efficiency Filtration

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Beating the Coronavirus is Like a Golf Match Where You Need the Right Clubs

Goldman Sachs has conducted an analysis which shows masks rather than social distancing are the key to economic recovery. Studies done by epidemiologists have also shown that masks make a big difference. But the contest with COVID can be likened to a golf match. To say that it doesn’t make much difference what type of mask you wear is equivalent  to saying you can do just as well with an old sand wedge as with a full set of the best clubs. There are a range of COVID competitors. The COVID in the park could be a 40 handicap whereas the COVID in a crowded bar might be a 5. The COVID in an isolation unit will be a professional with a minus 3 handicap.

Medical personnel in an isolation unit have the full set of clubs and routinely defeat the minus 3 handicap with good tight fitting N95 or even N100 respirator, gowns, gloves, good laminar air flow and HEPA filters.

The crowded bar visitor has the challenge of beating the 5 handicap. He could do it with a N100 respirator except he would not be able to remove it to drink. A combination of HEPA filters in the ceiling plus downward laminar air flow and use of an N95 mask with brief periods of removal to down a drink is likely to be a winning combination.

The worker in a meat packing plant could be facing a 10 handicap. A combination of N95 masks, partitions and HEPA filtered air will defeat COVID. Partitions without laminar HEPA filtered air is like a golf bag with no putter.

There is a set of clubs and skills available to beat even the COVID with the minus 3 handicap.  Most work situations present the challenge of a plus 5 to 40 handicap. Lockdowns and social distancing can be replaced with the right set of clubs and we can return to near normal.  If we continue with no clubs or just a sand wedge the economy will suffer greatly for a long period.

Here are three scenarios

Empty bag: What some Southern States have chosen

Sand wedge: Just cloth masks and partitions

Full set of clubs:  All the appropriate clubs where needed: N95 masks, HEPA filters and laminar flow in varying degrees depending on whether the competitor is a 5 or 40 handicapper.

For 2020 the world GDP is likely to be at 90 to 93% of the 2019 level. The U.S., Brazil and a few other nations may be participating with an empty bag but many countries have mandatory mask policies.

If we move to the full set of clubs (efficient masks, filters and proper air flow) the world economy can return to near normal in 2021 and 2022.  If many countries participate with an empty bag, we could experience GDP levels below that of 2019 for a number of years.

Goldman Sachs Says Mandatory Masks can Save the U.S over $1 trillion

A national mask mandate could potentially slash coronavirus infections in the US and save the country from a 5% hit to its gross domestic product, according to Goldman Sachs. 

In a Monday note, chief economist Jan Hatzius and his team investigated the link between wearing a mask and  certain economic and health outcomes of COVID-19. 

"We find that face masks are associated with significantly better coronavirus outcomes," Hatzius wrote. Face mask use lowered infection growth rates and death rates, the team found. The causal relationship was not weakened when controlling for avoiding large gatherings or avoiding public interactions.

A national mandate would also "likely increase face mask usage meaningfully," Goldman found. Goldman's baseline estimate is that a national mandate could increase the percentage of people who wear masks by 15 percentage points and cut the daily growth rate of confirmed cases by 1 percentage point to 0.6%. 

"These calculations imply that a face mask mandate could potentially substitute for lockdowns that would otherwise subtract nearly 5% from GDP," said Hatzius. 

The US currently does not mandate mask wearing - instead, it issued a national recommendation in April. While some states adopted stricter measures, some such as Texas and Florida opposed a state-wide mask mandate. 

By analyzing state-level mask usage, Goldman found that mandates gradually raise the percentage of people who "always" or "frequently" wear masks by 25 percentage points in the 30 days after signing.

In addition, the percent of people who say they "always" wear a mask jumped by nearly 40 percentage points more than 30 days after signing, "reflecting some people switching from 'frequently' and other categories to 'always'," according to the note. 

U.S. Auto Industry Sales could be off 25 Percent This Year

A growing consensus is taking shape that expects a years-long recovery for the U.S. auto industry and the economy. Bank of America predicts 12.8 million new vehicles will be sold this year, a 25% decline. It could take into the mid-2020s before sales return to more than 16 million, which still is less than the nearly 17.1 million vehicles sold in 2019.

But China, the epicenter of the virus, may be signaling some more positive news. Sales there in May rose 14.5% year-over-year, the second straight month of growth, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. In February, sales had dropped more than 80%. Its autos market is expected to recover in 2023, according to the forecast.

Oil Demand has Peaked

"Lasting behavioral changes to travel, commuting and working habits will  decrease energy usage and lessen demand for fossil fuels from the transport sector as well as from iron and steel production," DNV GL said in a statement about its research on the impact of the pandemic on oil demand and emissions.

"While we expect oil demand to recover next year, we think that it's likely that it will never reach the levels seen in 2019," Sverre Alvik, head of DNV GL's Energy Transition Outlook, told Reuters.

The International Energy Agency said on June 16, it did not expect oil demand to return to pre-pandemic levels before 2022 due to a slump in air travel.

DNV GL has previously predicted oil demand would plateau in 2022.

Growing skepticism about long-term global oil demand in a post-pandemic world is putting pressure on oil companies to revalue their assets.

Shell said on Tuesday it would write off assets worth up to $22 billion after the coronavirus crisis knocked oil and gas demand and weakened the outlook for energy prices.

Below is the latest International Monetary Fund  (IMF) forecast.

Source: International Monetary Fund  (IMF) P

This forecast was just prior to the latest surge of cases in the U.S.

Daily COVID Cases Exceed 160,000

WHO opened its conference yesterday with an address by Director General Tedros who updated attendees on the present situation.

More than 10.3 million cases of COVID-19 have now been reported to WHO, and more than 506,000 deaths.

For the past week, the number of new cases has exceeded 160,000 on every single day.

60% of all cases so far have been reported just in the past month.

We will never get tired of saying that the best way out of this pandemic is to take a comprehensive approach.

Find, isolate, test and care for every case, trace and quarantine every contact, equip and train health workers and educate and empower communities to protect themselves and others.

Not testing alone. Not physical distancing alone. Not contact tracing alone. Not masks alone. Do it all.

Countries that have adopted this comprehensive approach have suppressed transmission and saved lives. Flare-ups are to be expected as countries start to lift restrictions. But countries that have the systems in place to apply a comprehensive approach should be able to contain these flare-ups locally and avoid reintroducing widespread restrictions.

However, we are concerned that some countries have not used all the tools at their disposal and have taken a fragmented approach. These countries face a long, hard road ahead. But one of the lessons of the pandemic is that no matter what situation a country is in, it can be turned around. It’s never too late.

As you know, in March, Italy and Spain were the epicenter of the pandemic. At the peak of its epidemic, Spain had almost 10,000 cases a day, and Italy had more than 6,500 cases.

But both countries brought their epidemics under control with a combination of leadership, humility, active participation by every member of society, and implementing a comprehensive approach.

Both countries faced a daunting situation but turned it around.

The fastest way out of this pandemic is to follow the science and do what we know works: the comprehensive approach.

Today and tomorrow, WHO is holding a second research and innovation forum, bringing together more than 1000 scientists from all over the world to take stock of the progress made so far, to discuss new research questions and knowledge gaps, and to define research priorities for the remainder of this year and beyond.

Research and innovation have played a vital role since the beginning of the pandemic – and even before.

In January, WHO published the first protocol for PCR testing for the new coronavirus.

In February, we brought together hundreds of researchers from around the world to identify research priorities.

In March, we launched the Solidarity Trial, a large international study to find answers about which therapeutics are the most effective.

And in April, with the European Commission and multiple other partners we launched the Access to COVID-19 Tools Accelerator, to catalyze the development and equitable allocation of vaccines, diagnostics and therapeutics.

This pandemic is a scientific challenge, but it is also a test of character. We must act in the interests of global solidarity and our shared humanity.

We have a shared responsibility to ensure that all people have access to the tools to protect themselves, especially those who are most at risk.

Although the pandemic is global, there are differences in the experience and approach of each region and country.

Over the next few weeks, we plan to feature a different region regularly, to highlight the challenges in different parts of the world, and the lessons we are learning.

COVID Air Curtain and CFD used to Eliminate Dead Spots

The interior of an airplane is perhaps one of the safest places to be when it comes to avoiding contamination from a virus like COVID-19.

This is one of the surprising findings arising from detailed studies of recent so-called “super spreader” events in combination with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling.

Together, they highlight the need for a new approach to advanced filtration in confined spaces, says Paul Bemis, CEO of CoolSim and Air Cleaning, Inc., based in Concord, New Hampshire, the  developer of CoolSim, a leading cleanroom and data center software.

“When people realize the power of modeling airflow, they’ll understand how simple and valuable it is in keeping everyone safe from COVID-19 or any other airborne illness,” he says. “We’ve been doing this forever for cleanrooms, to avoid even the smallest particulates, and for data centers to manage energy use, but now we can help model how to manage what could be a life-or-death situation – the reopening of common spaces such as offices, restaurants and public buildings.”

Bemis has now developed a small, low cost and portable HEPA (high-efficiency particulate air) filtration device – the Covid Air Curtain – and can prove it can be even more effective than social distancing at limiting the spread of COVID-19, or of vaccinating around 60 percent of the population.

CoolSim is a CFD software simulation tool focused specifically on predicting cooling performance and airflow efficiency in data centers. This tool has been used to simulate the influence of a range of parameters on air circulation in enclosed spaces, such as air velocity, individual emissions over specific timeframes and cloud aerosol concentrations.

All buildings, Bemis explains, have a specified air change rate – the amount of air that needs to be changed per unit time, as specified in the U.S. by ASHRAE – the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers. Building codes are based on these ASHRAE specifications, which correlate to the type of business, the number of people who will typically be using the room and its size.

Not all rooms, however, are well mixed in terms of air exchange.

The localized nature of transmission is borne out by records of recent super spreader events.

One, for example, occurred in a small restaurant in China equipped with a wall mounted air conditioning system with the inlet and outlet on the same device and fairly coarse filter media. In this instance, a single diner infected half of the people in the restaurant, and they were all on one side of the room, leading to the conclusion that the direction of airflow from the air conditioning was the primary cause of the spread.

In another incident at a 19-story call center in South Korea, there were 97 confirmed cases recorded, and 94 of them were on the 11th floor – with all cases on one side of the room.

“The HVAC system was not unique to one half of that floor, so the transmission was very local considering it took place in such a large building,” Bemis notes. “Localized filtering would be a solution in eliminating the dead spots and provide the same effect as social distancing.”

The full article in IFN is found at  https://www.filtnews.com/modeling-airflow-and-filtration-reveals-truths-and-misconceptions-on-commonly-held-beliefs-about-virus-spread/

COVID is a Wake Up Call for High Efficiency Filtration

Timothy Toolen and Mark King of Tri-Dim believe that the general population, as well as the world of epidemiology, has had an awakening to the role air filtration can play in risk reduction from the spread of viral contaminants. Tri-Dim was possibly the first company to employ the use of HEPA filtration and adapted negative-air equipment to control airflows and reduce risk of nosocomial infection over two decades ago when tuberculosis made a resurgence in the U.S. Filtration technology has also developed to the point where we can greatly reduce airborne contaminant in hospitals, schools and other populated areas of concern without sacrificing energy cost or air flow with relatively minor increases in lifecycle costs.

Tri-Dim was acquired in 2018 by Mann+Hummel, a world leader in automotive filtration. Almost prophetically Mann+Hummel has been working on equipment designed to clean air in large public spaces such as hospital waiting areas, subway terminals, etc. Employed appropriately, this equipment will greatly reduce airborne contamination. This really isn’t a complicated issue to us … cleaner air is healthier air.

 Andreas Scope of Mann + Hummel elaborated on this R&D. the company is working on intelligently designed filter media, which combines low media resistance with the highest possible separation efficiency. Electrostatically charged media and tribo-electret media will continue to play an important role in residential and consumer applications. Biofunctional coatings of filter media, like the  Frecious Plus product range, offer a great potential to enhance the efficacy against micro-organisms and also viruses, as long as the coatings are properly validated under conditions which are representative for air filter environments.

In addition, modern simulation and CFD (computational fluid dynamics) tools enable advanced filter element and system designs for perfect utilization of filter media area at the lowest pressure drops.

A big potential for balancing air quality management, equipment maintenance and energy savings lies within broader use of sensors, data analytics and IoT (Internet of Things). Continuous air quality monitoring can be used to identify critical areas and patterns in indoor air quality and to select appropriate mitigation solutions. Combined with tracking and analyzing filter performance over time and the usage of an optimized ventilation schedule based on real data, “Clean Air as a Service” with access to a large portfolio of filtration products, filter delivery on time and guaranteed air quality will be provided.

Their interview is found at  https://www.filtnews.com/the-future-of-filtration-how-does-covid19-change-the-filtration-industry/