Coronavirus Technology Solutions
July 2, 2020
Beating the Coronavirus is Like a Golf Match
Where You Need the Right Clubs
Goldman Sachs Says Mandatory Masks can Save the
U.S over $1 trillion
U.S. Auto Industry Sales could be off 25 Percent
This Year
Oil Demand has Peaked
Daily COVID Cases Exceed 160,000
COVID Air Curtain and CFD used to Eliminate Dead
Spots
COVID is a Wake Up Call for High Efficiency
Filtration
______________________________________________________________________________
Beating the Coronavirus is Like a Golf Match
Where You Need the Right Clubs
Goldman Sachs has conducted an analysis which
shows masks rather than social distancing are
the key to economic recovery. Studies done by
epidemiologists have also shown that masks make
a big difference. But the contest with COVID can
be likened to a golf match. To say that it
doesn’t make much difference what type of mask
you wear is equivalent
to saying you can do just as well with an
old sand wedge as with a full set of the best
clubs. There are a range of COVID competitors.
The COVID in the park could be a 40 handicap
whereas the COVID in a crowded bar might be a 5.
The COVID in an isolation unit will be a
professional with a minus 3 handicap.
Medical personnel in an isolation unit have the
full set of clubs and routinely defeat the minus
3 handicap with good tight fitting N95 or even
N100 respirator, gowns, gloves, good laminar air
flow and HEPA filters.
The crowded bar visitor has the challenge of
beating the 5 handicap. He could do it with a
N100 respirator except he would not be able to
remove it to drink. A combination of HEPA
filters in the ceiling plus downward laminar air
flow and use of an N95 mask with brief periods
of removal to down a drink is likely to be a
winning combination.
The worker in a meat packing plant could be
facing a 10 handicap. A combination of N95
masks, partitions and HEPA filtered air will
defeat COVID. Partitions without laminar HEPA
filtered air is like a golf bag with no putter.
There is a set of clubs and skills available to
beat even the COVID with the minus 3 handicap.
Most work situations present the
challenge of a plus 5 to 40 handicap. Lockdowns
and social distancing can be replaced with the
right set of clubs and we can return to near
normal.
If we continue with no clubs or just a
sand wedge the economy will suffer greatly for a
long period.
Here are three scenarios
Empty bag: What some Southern States have chosen
Sand wedge: Just cloth masks and partitions
Full set of clubs:
All the appropriate clubs where needed:
N95 masks, HEPA filters and laminar flow in
varying degrees depending on whether the
competitor is a 5 or 40 handicapper.
For 2020 the world GDP is likely to be at 90 to
93% of the 2019 level. The U.S., Brazil and a
few other nations may be participating with an
empty bag but many countries have mandatory mask
policies.
If we move to the full set of clubs (efficient
masks, filters and proper air flow) the world
economy can return to near normal in 2021 and
2022.
If many countries participate with an
empty bag, we could experience GDP levels below
that of 2019 for a number of years.
A national mask mandate could potentially slash
coronavirus infections in the US and save the
country from a 5% hit to its gross domestic
product, according to Goldman Sachs.
In a Monday note, chief economist Jan Hatzius
and his team investigated the link between
wearing a mask and certain economic and
health outcomes of COVID-19.
"We find that face masks are associated with
significantly better coronavirus outcomes,"
Hatzius wrote. Face mask use lowered infection
growth rates and death rates, the team found.
The causal relationship was not weakened when
controlling for avoiding large gatherings or
avoiding public interactions.
A national mandate would also "likely increase
face mask usage meaningfully," Goldman found.
Goldman's baseline estimate is that a national
mandate could increase the percentage of people
who wear masks by 15 percentage points and cut
the daily growth rate of confirmed cases by 1
percentage point to 0.6%.
"These calculations imply that a face mask
mandate could potentially substitute for
lockdowns that would otherwise subtract nearly
5% from GDP," said Hatzius.
The US currently does not mandate mask wearing -
instead, it issued a national
recommendation in April.
While some states
adopted stricter measures,
some such as Texas and Florida opposed a
state-wide mask mandate.
By analyzing state-level mask usage, Goldman
found that mandates gradually raise the
percentage of people who "always" or
"frequently" wear masks by 25 percentage points
in the 30 days after signing.
In addition, the percent of people who say they
"always" wear a mask jumped by nearly 40
percentage points more than 30 days after
signing, "reflecting some people switching from
'frequently' and other categories to 'always',"
according to the note.
A growing
consensus is
taking shape that expects a years-long recovery
for the U.S. auto industry and the economy. Bank
of America predicts 12.8 million new vehicles
will be sold this year, a 25% decline. It could
take into the mid-2020s before sales return to
more than 16 million, which still is less than
the nearly 17.1 million vehicles sold in 2019.
But China, the epicenter of the virus, may be
signaling some more positive news. Sales there
in May rose 14.5% year-over-year, the
second straight month of growth, according to
the China Association of Automobile
Manufacturers. In February, sales had dropped
more than 80%. Its autos market is expected to
recover in 2023, according to the forecast.
"Lasting behavioral changes to travel, commuting
and working habits will
decrease energy usage and lessen demand
for fossil fuels from the transport sector as
well as from iron and steel production," DNV GL
said in a statement about its research on the
impact of the pandemic on oil demand and
emissions.
"While we expect oil demand to recover next
year, we think that it's likely that it will
never reach the levels seen in 2019," Sverre
Alvik, head of DNV GL's Energy Transition
Outlook, told Reuters.
The International Energy Agency said on June 16,
it did not expect oil demand to return to
pre-pandemic levels before 2022 due to a slump
in air travel.
DNV GL has previously predicted oil demand would
plateau in 2022.
Growing skepticism about long-term global oil
demand in a post-pandemic world is putting
pressure on oil companies to revalue their
assets.
Shell said on Tuesday it would write off assets
worth up to $22 billion after the coronavirus
crisis knocked oil and gas demand and weakened
the outlook for energy prices.
Below is the latest International Monetary Fund
(IMF) forecast.
Source: International Monetary Fund
(IMF) P
This forecast was just prior to the latest surge
of cases in the U.S.
WHO opened its conference yesterday with an
address by Director General Tedros who updated
attendees on the present situation.
More than 10.3 million cases of COVID-19 have
now been reported to WHO, and more than 506,000
deaths.
For the past week, the number of new cases has
exceeded 160,000 on every single day.
60% of all cases so far have been reported just
in the past month.
We will never get tired of saying that the best
way out of this pandemic is to take a
comprehensive approach.
Find, isolate, test and care for every case,
trace and quarantine every contact, equip and
train health workers and educate and empower
communities to protect themselves and others.
Not testing alone. Not physical distancing
alone. Not contact tracing alone. Not masks
alone. Do it all.
Countries that have adopted this comprehensive
approach have suppressed transmission and saved
lives. Flare-ups are to be expected as countries
start to lift restrictions. But countries that
have the systems in place to apply a
comprehensive approach should be able to contain
these flare-ups locally and avoid reintroducing
widespread restrictions.
However, we are concerned that some countries
have not used all the tools at their disposal
and have taken a fragmented approach. These
countries face a long, hard road ahead. But one
of the lessons of the pandemic is that no matter
what situation a country is in, it can be turned
around. It’s never too late.
As you know, in March, Italy and Spain were the
epicenter of the pandemic. At the peak of its
epidemic, Spain had almost 10,000 cases a day,
and Italy had more than 6,500 cases.
But both countries brought their epidemics under
control with a combination of leadership,
humility, active participation by every member
of society, and implementing a comprehensive
approach.
Both countries faced a daunting situation but
turned it around.
The fastest way out of this pandemic is to
follow the science and do what we know works:
the comprehensive approach.
Today and tomorrow, WHO is holding a second
research and innovation forum, bringing together
more than 1000 scientists from all over the
world to take stock of the progress made so far,
to discuss new research questions and knowledge
gaps, and to define research priorities for the
remainder of this year and beyond.
Research and innovation have played a vital role
since the beginning of the pandemic – and even
before.
In January, WHO published the first protocol for
PCR testing for the new coronavirus.
In February, we brought together hundreds of
researchers from around the world to identify
research priorities.
In March, we launched the Solidarity Trial, a
large international study to find answers about
which therapeutics are the most effective.
And in April, with the European Commission and
multiple other partners we launched the Access
to COVID-19 Tools Accelerator, to catalyze the
development and equitable allocation of
vaccines, diagnostics and therapeutics.
This pandemic is a scientific challenge, but it
is also a test of character. We must act in the
interests of global solidarity and our shared
humanity.
We have a shared responsibility to ensure that
all people have access to the tools to protect
themselves, especially those who are most at
risk.
Although the pandemic is global, there are
differences in the experience and approach of
each region and country.
Over the next few weeks, we plan to feature a
different region regularly, to highlight the
challenges in different parts of the world, and
the lessons we are learning.
The interior of an airplane is perhaps one of
the safest places to be when it comes to
avoiding contamination from a virus like
COVID-19.
This is one of the surprising findings arising
from detailed studies of recent so-called “super
spreader” events in combination with
computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling.
Together, they highlight the need for a new
approach to advanced filtration in confined
spaces, says Paul Bemis, CEO of CoolSim and Air
Cleaning, Inc., based in Concord, New Hampshire,
the developer of CoolSim, a leading cleanroom
and data center software.
“When people realize the power of modeling
airflow, they’ll understand how simple and
valuable it is in keeping everyone safe from
COVID-19 or any other airborne illness,” he
says. “We’ve been doing this forever for
cleanrooms, to avoid even the smallest
particulates, and for data centers to manage
energy use, but now we can help model how to
manage what could be a life-or-death situation –
the reopening of common spaces such as offices,
restaurants and public buildings.”
Bemis has now developed a small, low cost and
portable HEPA (high-efficiency particulate air)
filtration device – the Covid Air Curtain – and
can prove it can be even more effective than
social distancing at limiting the spread of
COVID-19, or of vaccinating around 60 percent of
the population.
CoolSim is a CFD software simulation tool
focused specifically on predicting cooling
performance and airflow efficiency in data
centers. This tool has been used to simulate the
influence of a range of parameters on air
circulation in enclosed spaces, such as air
velocity, individual emissions over specific
timeframes and cloud aerosol concentrations.
All buildings, Bemis explains, have a specified
air change rate – the amount of air that needs
to be changed per unit time, as specified in the
U.S. by ASHRAE – the American Society of
Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning
Engineers. Building codes are based on these
ASHRAE specifications, which correlate to the
type of business, the number of people who will
typically be using the room and its size.
Not all rooms, however, are well mixed in terms
of air exchange.
The localized nature of transmission is borne
out by records of recent super spreader events.
One, for example, occurred in a small restaurant
in China equipped with a wall mounted air
conditioning system with the inlet and outlet on
the same device and fairly coarse filter media.
In this instance, a single diner infected half
of the people in the restaurant, and they were
all on one side of the room, leading to the
conclusion that the direction of airflow from
the air conditioning was the primary cause of
the spread.
In another incident at a 19-story call center in
South Korea, there were 97 confirmed cases
recorded, and 94 of them were on the 11th floor
– with all cases on one side of the room.
“The HVAC system was not unique to one half of
that floor, so the transmission was very local
considering it took place in such a large
building,” Bemis notes. “Localized filtering
would be a solution in eliminating the dead
spots and provide the same effect as social
distancing.”
The full article in IFN is found at
https://www.filtnews.com/modeling-airflow-and-filtration-reveals-truths-and-misconceptions-on-commonly-held-beliefs-about-virus-spread/
Timothy Toolen and Mark King of Tri-Dim believe
that the general population, as well as the
world of epidemiology, has had an awakening to
the role air filtration can play in risk
reduction from the spread of viral contaminants.
Tri-Dim was possibly the first company to employ
the use of HEPA filtration and adapted
negative-air equipment to control airflows and
reduce risk of nosocomial infection over two
decades ago when tuberculosis made a resurgence
in the U.S. Filtration technology has also
developed to the point where we can greatly
reduce airborne contaminant in hospitals,
schools and other populated areas of concern
without sacrificing energy cost or air flow with
relatively minor increases in lifecycle costs.
Tri-Dim was acquired in 2018 by Mann+Hummel, a
world leader in automotive filtration. Almost
prophetically Mann+Hummel has been working on
equipment designed to clean air in large public
spaces such as hospital waiting areas, subway
terminals, etc. Employed appropriately, this
equipment will greatly reduce airborne
contamination. This really isn’t a complicated
issue to us … cleaner air is healthier air.
Andreas Scope of Mann + Hummel elaborated on
this R&D. the company is working on
intelligently designed filter media, which
combines low media resistance with the highest
possible separation efficiency.
Electrostatically charged media and
tribo-electret media will continue to play an
important role in residential and consumer
applications. Biofunctional coatings of filter
media, like the
Frecious Plus product range, offer a
great potential to enhance the efficacy against
micro-organisms and also viruses, as long as the
coatings are properly validated under conditions
which are representative for air filter
environments.
In addition, modern simulation and CFD
(computational fluid dynamics) tools enable
advanced filter element and system designs for
perfect utilization of filter media area at the
lowest pressure drops.
Their interview is found at
https://www.filtnews.com/the-future-of-filtration-how-does-covid19-change-the-filtration-industry/
|