McIlvaine Coronavirus Market Ale

McIlvaine is Making and Continually Adjusting Forecasts which are at Variance with Those in Standard Market Reports

Annual Face Mask Market of $40 billion to $400 billion

H&V Wins $2.2 million Mask Contract from DOD

One Million Meat Processing Workers in EU Need PPE

Camfil has New Room Air Purifier

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Most of the citizens of the world will need efficient masks. Those in healthcare and certain other occupations will need to spend much more than will need to be spent on young children.

There are 43.5 million health workers in the world, it is estimated that 20.7 million are nurses and midwives. There are 3.8 million registered nurses in the U.S. There are 2 million surgeons, anesthesiologists, and obstetricians worldwide.

The world population is 7.8 billion. There are close to 700 million children under 5 who may need less spent to protect them.

In 2018 the number of people older than 64 years old surpassed the number of children under 5 years old. The timing varied significantly between countries – in higher income countries with low fertility rates and longer life expectancies, it has been shifting for decades. In the United States, under-5s were already outnumbered by those older than 64 by 1966. In Spain it was 1970; in South Korea it was 2000.

For many countries, this crossover point is still to come. In India, it’s projected to be 2028. In South Africa, it’s expected to happen in 2036. In low-income countries with high fertility rates and lower life expectancy this point is still many decades away: it’s projected that in Nigeria, under-5s will outnumber those older than 64 until 2087.

The number of children under 5 years old is projected to peak and plateau for most of the 21st century. And as the global population of people older than 64 years will continue to grow, it’s clear that we’re moving towards an ageing world.

Ten percent of the world or 780 million people live on less than $700 per year. So the only way they could afford masks is if they are provided free of charge.

By 2018 there were as many middle income and rich people as there were those with lower incomes.

The market for masks is a function not only of ability to pay but need to prevent spread. It is expected that the poorest people in the world will be given a vaccine. In part this is because the more wealthy people see that this as in their best interest.

The same will be true for masks. If a vaccine is not fully effective, we will need to distribute efficient masks to most of the 7.6 billion people in the world.

McIlvaine is Making and Continually Adjusting Forecasts which are at Variance with Those in Standard Market Reports

Current available market reports on Google reflect a present mask market anywhere from a few billion dollars to over 70 billion dollars per year. All are forecasting the market to shrink back to closer to its former size of a few billion dollars per year. They forecast a U.S. market which peaks this year and does not take into account the new pressure for everyone to wear masks.

World Face Mask Market - $ billions
Forecaster	2020	2025
Grandview	70	20
Allied	1.6	2.2
Market Study	10	3

There is considerable difference in the forecasts. Part is scope. But that does not fully explain the differences. McIlvaine is projecting a very large market well into the future. So there is no correlation with some of these other forecasters.

Efficient facemasks will be a primary weapon to combat COVID. If all of the world’s 7.6 billion citizens wore the equivalent of N95 masks when in public places there would not be any virus transmission. If everyone wore N80 masks 95% of the transmission would be eliminated. If they wore N30 masks 51% of the transmission would be eliminated. Loosely fitting scarves and DIY masks average only 10% reduction. These are rough estimates but the Daily Coronavirus Technology Solutions Alerts have extensive analysis of these options.

Healthcare workers and others in high virus environments should be spending more on masks than those in less risky environments. There are 43 million healthcare workers of which 2 million are surgeons who will need to change masks frequently throughout the day.

The world is now split with 3.8 billion people in the middle income or wealthy group. However, since wealthy people will benefit from mask wearing by poor people the ability to pay is likely to be less of an obstacle.

There are lots of variables which will impact the market size. There are others which will impact the market share for different products.

· Related benefits such as prevention of other outbreaks and protection against air pollutants

The ability of N95 masks worn by transmitter and recipient to eliminate 99.75% of the virus and for N80 masks to eliminate 95% are justification for spending trillions of dollars per year for masks. These straight forward calculations may or may not be accepted by decision makers.

In any case there is newly developed consensus that masks are a primary weapon to fight COVID. As result at least $40 billion will be spent on masks in 2021.

However there is justification for a forecast as high as $300 billion. If masks become a primary weapon and are successfully employed the value will be trillions of dollars per year in reduced health costs and increased economic output around the world.

There is the outside chance that COVID will disappear by 2027 and the mask market could drop below $40 billion. The odds are that it will still be a threat although less of a threat than at present. So there is a wide range of possible revenues in 2027.

So many developments are occurring each day that it is necessary to compile them in the daily Alerts and then continually revise forecasts. These daily Alerts will help suppliers adjust their sales programs as needed. They can use the Coronavirus Technology Solutions as a foundation. McIlvaine can supplement this service with customized forecasts for masks, media and other products.

H&V Wins $2.2 million Mask Contract from DOD

The Department of Defense has signed a $2.2 million contract with Hollingsworth and Vose to produce 27.5 million N95 ventilator filters and 3.1 million N95 respirators per month starting in August.

The deal, announced last Thursday and facilitated by the DoD Joint Acquisition Task Force, uses funds authorized and appropriated under the CARES Act passed in April.

It comes on the heels of the Pentagon's removal of its lead official responsible for executing the Defense Production Act to increase production of masks and other equipment to help contain the novel coronavirus -- as well as a string of deals intended to increase production of equipment in high demand due to the virus' spread.

They include a $134 million deal awarded in mid-May to the Federal Resources Supply Co. to provide personal protective equipment kits for medical personnel at more than 15,000 nursing home locations.

The same week ApiJect Systems America received a $138 million contract to create a ready supply chain for prefilled syringes when a COVID-19 vaccine is available, and several large contracts for mask production.

In early May, the DoD awarded a $126 million contract to 3M to increase N95 mask production in October and a $133 million deal to 3M, O&M Halyward and Honeywell for mask production.

One Million Meat Processing Workers in EU Need PPE

The European Union’s meat industry is made up of almost one million workers and more than 32,000 companies, with its production representing 1.53% of the GDP of the EU-27. The sector in Europe has been characterized for decades by social dumping as well as aggressive competition between companies at both national and cross-border levels, resulting in a race to the bottom in wages and working conditions. The pressure from retailers has been driving a price reduction policy for years. Competition from outside the EU is also significant. The meat sector is a fragmented industry, with excess capacity and consequently under cost pressure from more powerful customers, who have access to imported product and can apply pressure in respect of cost.

Margins are normally low and volatile. In most countries, large slaughterhouses have the biggest market share, or are growing rapidly, and concentration varies at the slaughtering stage. Against this backdrop, employers adopt strategies that hit workers in various ways: increasing line speeds with health and safety implications, pushing for flexible labor arrangements, driving down wages and labor standards and making increased use of precarious workers. Meat processing plants are usually labor intensive. Although modern processing plants have made ergonomic improvements over the years, repetitive strain injuries are common, as are cuts, slips and falls.

Working conditions are rather tough: being cold, repetitive, and requiring physical strength. Not surprisingly labor turnover rates in most European countries are high. Due to the intensification of work, a growing number of workers are now suffering from new occupational diseases, such as musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs), and from psychosocial factors at work (the most common one being work-related stress).

Lack of inspections: In many countries the frequency of labor inspections has decreased during the pandemic. This has caused more breaches of law and violations of precautionary health and safety measures adopted to protect workers during this emergency period.
Common transport: Many workers reach their workplace via public transport or carpooling, often organized directly by the employers. It may be the case that measures to ensure social distancing during transport have not been respected.
Ventilation: The spread of the disease is 20 times6 more likely where there is insufficient ventilation as it is the case in some meat plants, especially the most old one.
PPE: Protective equipment must be provided, be appropriate and must be worn. This has not always been the case. There should be training on the use of PPE.
Cold: Certain parts of meat processing plants are inevitably very cold. The virus transmits more easily in colder temperatures.

Previous Alerts have covered the clusters in Germany and the UK but other countries have had problems as well.

France: Three Covid-19 clusters have been confirmed at slaughterhouses in France. On May 18, 2020 the Val de Loire regional health authority confirmed 54 workers had tested positive at the Tradival slaughterhouse, owned by the farming cooperative Groupe Sicarev. Around 500 workers are employed in the plant. The plant was shut down by local authorities. A second Covid-19 cluster was confirmed in northern Brittany, where 115 workers at the Kermené abattoir in Côtes-d'Armor tested positive for the virus. More than 2800 workers are employed at the plant. 9 staff (out of 700) also tested positive at a slaughterhouse owned by poultry group LDC in Arrivé. All staff who tested positive went into self-isolation.

Poland: Some workers fell sick and some were quarantined at a poultry processing plant owned by Danish Crown at Czyzew in Poland. Some of the lines were temporarily closed. In Starachowice, in South East Poland, over 100 workers were sick or quarantined at a Smithfield plant. The plant was temporarily closed but by June 1, 2020 it had re-opened some lines and departments. The workforce comprises large numbers of migrant workers from the Ukraine.

Belgium: There was a serious outbreak with 70 people infected out of 330 workers in one meat factory of the Lovenfosse Group. The factory was not closed. Two workers lost their lives.

Camfil has New Room Air Purifier

“With newly spiking numbers of COVID-19 cases across the country, the need for negatively pressurized isolation areas is on the rise. The value of portable air purifiers is almost impossible to overstate in the circumstances we find ourselves in today. In response to growing demand, Camfil announces the new CamCleaner CC500.” Keith Woolard, Product Manager - Containment and CamCleaners. Features of the CamCleaner CC500 include

With HEPA filters thoroughly tested to a minimum of 99.99% efficient, and a 5-star MERV 9A prefilter, the CamCleaner CC500 can be used as a portable air purifier or as a ducted negative air system to protect patients, staff and visitors from airborne viruses, pathogens, and harmful particles. It can be put to use in:

Unexpectedly, gyms, malls and movie theaters are not (yet) allowed to reopen in phase four of the "New York Forward" reopening plan.

At a Monday morning press conference, Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced air conditioning filters with a minimum efficiency reporting value (MERV) rating capable of filtering COVID-19 particles or similar air exchange measures will be mandatory for large mall reopenings.

A COVID-19 particle is approximately 0.125 microns in diameter. Filters with a high MERV, such as high-efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filters, have been shown to help reduce the presence of COIVD-19 in air filtration systems.

“There are air filtration devices – air filters that can actually help with the COVID virus and NASA has studied these,” Cuomo said. “There are HEPA filters, which are high-efficiency particulate air filters that can actually filter out the COVID virus. The COVID virus is 0.1 microns. There are HEPA filters that can filter out 0.01, so any malls that will open in New York – large malls – we will make it mandatory that they have air filtration systems that can filter out the COVID virus.

“For many of these systems, it depends on what filter you install, called the MERV rating of the filter. But they have different filters that filter out different sized particles, and they have filters that can actually filter out and catch the COVID virus.

“For large mall reopenings – which we haven't done yet – but we're going to make this mandatory. I would recommend – the state recommends – for all businesses and offices, they explore the potential for their air-conditioning/air-filtration system, adding a filter that can filter out the COVID virus. We have been looking at this issue, because we look around the country and you're seeing malls, you're seeing air-conditioning systems, indoor spaces that have been problematic. And we think this offers promise.”

On Friday, Cuomo explained, “Gyms, theaters, malls, we are still looking at the science and the data. There has been information that those situations have created issues in other states. If we have that information, we don't want to then go ahead until we know what we're doing, right?

“This is a road that no one has travelled on before. Logic suggests if you see a problem in other states that you explore it before you move forward in your state, and that's what we're doing with gyms, theaters and malls.”

He further explained, “The reason … we slowed on the malls, movie theaters, gyms … these interior spaces with large numbers of people that have recirculating air conditioning systems pose an issue. And I've spoken to a number of engineers about it. You get a movie theater, you get a mall, you have a large number of people. So, there's a possibility that you have the virus in the air, because you have a large number of people.”