Coronavirus Technology Solutions
May 12, 2020
Win the War with Coronavirus Technology
Solutions
Why Paper Menus?
Face Masks are very Important to Combatting
COVID
Respiratory Droplets from Infected Individuals
are a Major Mode of Transmission
If Eighty Percent of the People Wear Masks Most
Deaths will be Prevented
Nursing Homes have Major Needs for Air
Filtration and PPE
AHCA/NCAL has List of PPE Vendors
Room Air Purifier in Nursing Home Main Room is
the Most Critical Location
______________________________________________________________________________
Win the War with Coronavirus Technology
Solutions
Shelter in place may have won the first battle
but not the war with COVID. The war needs to be
won not by defense but by attacking with the
right strategy and weapons. Attacking without
regard to lives lost is similar to the slaughter
in the trenches in WWI.
The weapons are available to win the war with
minimum sacrifice. New research shows that the
enemy has airborne capabilities of which we
previously were unaware. But there is newly
developed technology for a successful attack.
Coronavirus Technology Solutions
provides the successful battle plan. It is based
on understanding the needs and the ways to meet
those needs.
It starts with anticipating
the potential case load by season and
country in the coming months under various
scenarios. This analysis defines the needs.
A proactive program is then formulated around
those needs. Implementation includes obtaining
agreement as to the efficacy of the program. The
new research shows that it is not the foot
soldiers but the air force which is the biggest
danger. This needs to be communicated. The devil
is in the details. For each factor we need to
consider a number of variables.
Potential Case Load:
When there are reports of the minimum
infectious dose being as low as 10 virions
combined with reports that a lusty singer in a
Washington state church choir was able to exhale
thousands of virions per minute and infect 45
out 60 safely distanced members it is clear that
the enemy air force is a real danger.
McIlvaine has been involved for decades
in the analysis of transmission of small
particles in the air. This phenomenon is at the
heart of air pollution, indoor air and cleanroom
technology where McIlvaine has multiple
publications.
The potential case load is also a function of
development of new vaccines and therapies and
the production of sufficient quantities to
protect billions of people. This requires a huge
investment not only by pharmaceutical companies
but by contract manufacturing organizations (CMOs).
McIlvaine has a service which is tracking
the progress of each potential vaccine and
therapy.
Forecasts for a range filtration products
are being made in part based on assumptions
relative to the success and timing of vaccine
and therapy availability.
Identify Needs:
Removing aerosols requires filter media which
removes 0.3 micron particles but allows the
wearer to breathe easily. There is a scarcity of
meltblown filter media but nanofiber membrane
media is available which is washable and meets
the requirements.
McIlvaine is tracking the availability of
media as well as reagents and other test kit
components.
Design Proactive Program:
There is a combination of systems, components
and consumables which need to be available and
in combination provide safety at reasonable
costs. These products and services are being
analyzed on a daily basis.
Implement the Program:
McIlvaine is interfacing with hospitals, food
processors, restaurants and other end users. It
is conducting webinars with presentations by
experts in filtration and healthcare. A bridge
between suppliers and users is created.
Collaboration: The
pandemic is a problem for the world. The fact
that the demand is peaking at different times in
different countries offers an opportunity for a
world approach. The fact that South Korea can
supply large numbers of test kits is because of
a large investment in automated cleanrooms. It
is no coincidence that Samsung Biologics
provides more than a quarter of the world’s
contract biopharmaceutical production. The first
successful vaccine could come from any country.
Suppliers can also collaborate to a much greater
extent. Suppliers of foot sanitizers, walk
through temperature scanners, fan filter units
and air monitors all have complementary
products.
Cost effective and Safe Solution:
The program provides a way to return to near
normal quickly and safely.
Japanese Researchers Show that Viruses are
Airborne as Micro Droplets
Experiments document the droplet size
and distance traveled for droplets and
micro droplets
transmitted during a sneeze or cough.
They do not address those exhaled in normal
breath.
They point out that microdroplets can
contain a large number of viruses. When you
consider
that the minimum infection rate may be as
low as 10 virions it is not hard to understand
how even if a small fraction is transported to a
distant location that infection is possible.
Why Paper Menus?
In our Alert yesterday we reported on
restaurants who switched to disposable paper
menus.
We heard this from one of our
subscribers.
“Thank you
for these updates. They are very helpful and
interesting. I wonder why restaurants are using
paper menus for one time use instead of an
ordering app. There has to be something like
that out there. People should be able to see the
menu from their phones and then order. Less
interaction with waitstaff”
Good points. Even paper menus have to be placed
at the table. So this creates a minor risk. Then
the initial interaction with the waitstaff is
another. A third benefit is less interruption
with the air flow. It has been determined that
movement in a room disrupts laminar air flow and
tends to aerolize particles on surfaces.
So the less traffic the better.
Face Masks are very Important to Combatting
COVID
Japan reports less than 600 COVID deaths while
the U.S. reports over 80,000. Japan’s population
is about 38% of the U.S., but even adjusting for
population, the Japanese death rate is a mere 2%
of America’s.
This comes despite Japan having no lockdown,
still-active subways, and many businesses that
have remained open—reportedly including karaoke
bars, although Japanese citizens and industries
are practicing social distancing where they can.
Nor have the Japanese broadly embraced contact
tracing, a practice by which health authorities
identify someone who has been infected and then
attempt to identify everyone that person might
have interacted with—and potentially infected.
So how does Japan do it? This was the question
posed by David Ewing Duncan in an article he
wrote for Vanity Fair. He interviewed
those with answers.
“One reason is that nearly everyone there is
wearing a mask,” said De
Kai, an American computer
scientist with joint appointments at UC
Berkeley’s International Computer Science
Institute and at the Hong Kong University of
Science and Technology. He is also the chief
architect of an in-depth study, set to be
released in the coming days, that suggests that
every one of us should be wearing a mask—whether
surgical or homemade, scarf or bandana—like they
do in Japan and other countries, mostly in East
Asia. Among the findings of their research
paper, which the team plans to submit to a major
journal: If 80% of a closed population were to
don a mask, COVID-19 infection rates would
statistically drop to approximately one twelfth
the number of infections—compared to a
live-virus population in which no one wore
masks.
De Kai’s solution, along with his team, was to
build a computer forecasting model they call
the masksim simulator.
This allowed them to create scenarios of
populations like those in Japan (that generally
wear masks) and others (that generally don’t),
and to compare what happens to infection rates
over time. Masksim takes sophisticated
programming used by epidemiologists to track
outbreaks and pathogens like COVID-19, Ebola,
and SARS, and blended this with other models
that are used in artificial intelligence to take
into account the role of chance, in this case
the randomness and unpredictability, of human
behavior—for instance, when a person who is
infected decides to go to a beach. De Kai’s team
have also added some original programming that
takes into account mask-specific criteria, such
as how effective certain masks are at blocking
the invisible micro-droplets of moisture that
spray out of our mouths when we exhale or speak,
or our noses when we sneeze, which scientists
believe are significant vectors for spreading
the coronavirus.
Along with the masksim site, the team is
also releasing
a study that
describes their model in detail as well as their
contention that masksim’s forecasts support a
growing body of pro-mask evidence.
“What’s most important about wearing masks right
now,” said Guy-Philippe Goldstein, an economist,
cybersecurity expert, and lecturer at the Ecole
de Guerre Economique in Paris—and a masksim collaborator,
“is that it works, along with social distancing,
to flatten the curve of infections as we wait
for treatments and vaccines to be
developed—while also allowing people to go out
and some businesses to reopen.”
While all models have limitations and are only
as good as their assumptions, this one is “a
very thorough model and well done,” said William
Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist at
Vanderbilt University, who reviewed the De Kai
team’s paper. “It supports a notion that I
advocate along with most other infectious
disease experts: that masks are very, very
important.” Jeremy Howard, founding researcher
at fast.ai and
a distinguished research scientist at the
University of San Francisco, also assessed the
paper. “It’s almost overkill how careful they
were with this modeling,” said Howard, who also
coauthored and spearheaded a
study last month (recently
submitted to the journal PNAS) that reviewed
dozens of papers assessing the effectiveness of
masks.
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/05/masks-covid-19-infections-would-plummet-new-study-says
Respiratory Droplets from Infected Individuals
are a Major Mode of Transmission
This is the conclusion of
DELVE
who state that It is currently believed that
droplets are the main route of transmission.
Whilst there is indirect evidence that supports
this, the relative contribution of
droplet/aerosol transmission has not been
estimated.
Aerosols refer to suspensions in gas of small
particles (typically < 5-10 µm) and can travel
relatively long distances. Droplets refer to
large particles (> 20 µm) and can only travel
short distances as they will fall to ground due
to gravity. While the possibility of aerosol
transmission of COVID-19 has been clearly
demonstrated through experiments and outbreak
reports (e.g., Washington state choir), it
remains unclear what proportion of infection can
be attributed to aerosol transmission. Some
studies provide indirect evidence that droplets
may be the main routes of transmission. For
example, a recent report by Lu et al
describes an outbreak in a restaurant in
Guanzhou, China, in which customers were likely
to have been infected through droplets that
travelled through air conditioning airflow; they
conclude that the patterns of outbreak is
consistent with droplet transmission, rather
than aerosol transmission. Anfinrud et al
demonstrates that droplets, smaller than those
generated through coughing or sneezing, can be
generated via speech, providing further evidence
that droplet transmission may play important
roles. Public Health England also suggests that
droplets and contacts are main routes of
transmission. It is currently unknown what
proportion of infected cases can be attributed
to aerosol vs droplet transmission.
DELVE – Data Evaluation and Learning for Viral
Epidemics – is a multi-disciplinary group,
convened by the Royal Society, to support a
data-driven approach to learning from the
different approaches countries are taking to
managing the covid-19 pandemic. More information
about the project and its work are available on
the about and people pages.
https://rs-delve.github.io/reports/2020/05/04/face-masks-for-the-general-public.html#fn:13
If Eighty Percent of the People Wear Masks Most
Deaths will be Prevented
The computerized model referenced in the
preceding article shows substantial impact from
mask wearing in the UK.
Deaths over 500 days are 60,000 vs 1.1
million just with social distancing.
Comparing different mask materials, medical
masks have been found to be up to three times
more effective in blocking transmission compared
to homemade masks (Davies et al., 2013).
Surgical masks most efficaciously reduce the
emission of influenza virus particles into the
environment in respiratory droplets. Still,
although masks vary greatly in their ability to
protect, using any type of face mask (without an
exploratory valve) can help decrease viral
transmission (Sande et al., 2008). However, the
effect of universal masking does not require
full protection from disease to be effective in
lowering infection rates of COVID-19. Masks may
be especially crucial for containing the
COVID-19 pandemic, since many infections appear
to come from people with no signs of illness.
For instance, around 48% of COVID19
transmissions were pre-symptomatic in Singapore
and 62% in Tianjin, China (Ganyani et al.,
2020). This suggests that masking needs to be
universal and not restricted to individuals who
think they may be infected. Furthermore, the
SARS-CoV-2 virus is known to spread through
airborne particles (Leung et al., 2020) and
quite possibly via aerosolized droplets as well
according to Service (2020), van Doremalen et
al. (2020), Santarpia et al. (2020), and Liu et
al. (2020). It may linger in the air for and
travel several meters, which is why social
distancing rules require at least 2 meters
between individuals to be effective.
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.13553.pdf
Nursing Homes have Major Needs for Air
Filtration and PPE
The number of Americans in nursing facilities is
expected to increase to 27 million in
2050. Respiratory issues are the fourth-largest
health concern for seniors and the third-largest
cause of death among the elderly. Studies have
shown that those in nursing homes are sensitive
to air pollutants which cause asthma. So
providing cleaner air could be justified even
without the virus.
Over 27,000 deaths from COVID have occurred at
U.S. nursing homes. This represents more than
one third of the total U.S. COVID deaths. There
are 15,000 nursing homes which should be
equipped with air filtration and large numbers
of workers who need the best PPE. Advice for
these homes is provided by the American
Healthcare Association
https://www.ahcancal.org/facility_operations/disaster_planning/Pages/Coronavirus.aspx
AHCA/NCAL has List of PPE Vendors
Identifying reliable personal protective
equipment (PPE) suppliers during the COVID-19
pandemic has been extremely challenging for
providers. AHCA/NCAL has vetted countless
vendors and concluded that the best indicator of
potential suppliers is members’ experiences
ordering and receiving supplies in this
uncertain time. AHCA/NCAL has compiled a list of
vendors that have successfully delivered PPE to
members during the pandemic.
https://www.ahcancal.org/facility_operations/disaster_planning/Documents/PPE-Supplier-List.pdf
Room Air Purifier in Nursing Home Main Room is
the Most Critical Location
AllerAir's 5000 Exec UV is strategically placed
in the
Fayetteville Nursing Home in Fayetteville, North
Carolina
There is one particular room where the residents
of the home spent most of their time. The senior
citizens that live in the home are also very
sensitive to any dust or pollen that was present
in the indoor air. Older people generally have
weaker immune systems than younger people and
react to certain contaminants more severely. If
one resident of the home was sick, it was
certain that after spending a day cooped up in
the same room as the other residents, the other
residents would also catch the sickness. The
bacteria and dust particles in the room of the
nursing home were causing problems for the
senior citizens. The only way for them to be
healthier and able to enjoy their day in the
room together is if the indoor air was of higher
quality.
The home invested in the 5000
Exec UV for its effectiveness
and efficiency. The air purifier
is able to clean a room that is
1500 square feet in size. The
air purifier was placed
in the main room, and it
can easily clean the large room
in no time. The 5000 Exec UV
contains the same filters as
other effective air purifiers,
able to remove particles,
pollen, and dust from the air
inside a room. The HEPA filter
and pre-filter inside the air
purifier absorbs and eliminates
mold spores, particles, and
odors from the air. Once the air
has moved through these
efficient filters, it is then
moved to a UV lamp. The 10-watt
UV lamp is able to eliminate the
bacteria and viruses from the
air that passes through it. The
lamp is also able to trap and
eliminate mold spores in the air
and any other toxins that may
have been missed by the
pre-filter. With the
technologies of the filters and
the UV lamp combined, AllerAir's
5000 Exec UV air purifier is
able to eliminate most harmful
contaminants from the air.
After running the 5000 Exec UV, the home has found that the residents of the nursing home do not get sick as often. When one resident suffers from a cold or virus, there is no longer a fear that other residents will subsequently catch the virus. The air inside the main room of the nursing home is more fresh and clean smelling. Since the unit only uses 95 watts of power when placed on the high setting, the home is able to run the unit overnight in the main room. |