NEWS RELEASE MAY 2008
Demand For FGD, SCR, And Dust Collectors To Remain Strong After 2010
A large number of SCR and FGD systems have been ordered as a result of CAIR. There is a big revenue peak in 2009 and the impact dwindles after 2010. The question is, where does the market go from there? The answer is that nothing is certain. There are many positive and negative events which could impact sales in the 15 years through 2023, but the McIlvaine Company conclusion is that all U.S. coal-fired units will have NOx and SOx control by 2023. The markets for mercury and particulate control will be even stronger. Also by that time the odds are better than even that there will be at least 20 percent more coal-fired capacity.
In the McIlvaine FGD, NOx, Fabric Filter, Precipitator, and Mercury market reports, a new forecasting tool is being utilized. This tool is “Important Future Event Odds”. Future events are unpredictable, but odds relative to their occurrence can be approximated.
The following example in the McIlvaine NOx Control World Markets report results in a prediction that all U.S. coal-fired power plants will have SCR or SNCR by 2023. This is based on the following assessment of events.
|
Negative Events For Retrofit |
Odds Against # to 1 |
|
Asteroid Collision |
20 million |
|
Global warming catastrophe |
20 million |
|
Natural gas price drops below $4/MMBtu |
1,000 |
|
Carbon tax is exorbitant |
100 |
|
U.S. is only wealthy country without SCR on all plants |
100 |
|
Anti-environment Executive and Legislative branches |
100 |
|
Renewable energy costs are below 200% of coal |
50 |
|
Nuclear impact is major |
30 |
|
Gasification is major |
20 |
Additional Negative Events, New Coal-fired Power Plants
Environmental lobbies are completely successful
5
Economics are ignored
5
|
Positive Events For Retrofit |
Odds For # to 1 |
|
New Clean Air Act Amendment |
10 |
|
PM2.5 NAAQS |
10 |
|
Ozone NAAQS |
10 |
|
Increase capacity |
4 |
|
NSR litigation if no other law |
7 |
|
Regional Haze Rule |
7 (but only for about 1/3 the units) |
|
CO2 Ready |
Not significant |
Positive Events For New Coal-fired Power Plants
Odds For # to 1
Natural Gas price exceeds $9/MMBtu
5
Co-firing, ethanol, hydrochloric acid
2
High electricity demand
6
Renewables supply limits
5
Nuclear supply limit
5
Coal is less than half the cost of alternatives
50
Rate payers will not support doubling electricity costs to reduce greenhouse gases
5
Carbon Capture Economic
0.1
What these tables show is that the odds against negative events are high, and the odds for positive events are modestly high. The end result is a high probability for the predictions. There is a near certainty of a big asteroid hitting the earth. This would stop the NOx control program as effectively as the last one stopped the dinosaurs. But, it might be another 50 million years before it happens. On the positive side, the odds are greater than 9 to l that natural gas prices will exceed $9/MMBtu over the 15 year period. The odds are 10 to1 that the new fine particulate National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) will result in NOx control at each coal-fired power plant.
The “Important Future Event Odds” approach is also being used to help utilities determine the timing and severity of compliance requirements for air pollutants and CO2.
