NEWS RELEASE                                   JANUARY 2008

Global Orchard Of Decision Trees Needed To Address Greenhouse Gas Problem

Actions taken to address global warming will have impacts on most human activities.  By the same token, most human activities impact global warming.  Robert McIlvaine of the McIlvaine Company (www.mcilvainecompany.com) says the ubiquitous nature of this problem demands a new approach.  Rather than individual decision trees focused on narrow aspects, there is a need for a global orchard of synergistically juxtaposed and fruitful decision trees.

The pollination from one decision tree to another will make a huge difference.  China generates CO₂ to create the goods which California buys.  Therefore the Chinese CO₂ reduction decision tree is impacted by the California consumption reduction tree.

There is presently limited capacity to deliver wind turbines.  This impacts not only the Wind Energy Decision Tree but other renewable and fossil energy options.

The world’s wealth is finite.  Energy security, healthcare, poverty and other uses of this wealth will be negatively impacted by increases in expenditures to reduce warming.  Pollination between trees will be necessary to obtain the right balance.

A small corner of the global orchard has been created with a number of decision trees developed by the McIlvaine Company.  The Power Plant Air Quality Decision Tree is nourished by a powerful mix of communications media depicted as the root system.

http://www.mcilvainecompany.com/Tree of Decisions.pdf

McIlvaine also has decision systems on wind, solar, biomass and other renewable energy subjects as well as one covering biofuels.  The overview of this Global Orchard shows the juxtaposition of trees for suppliers, investors, consultants, regulators, and operators.

http://www.mcilvainecompany.com/Orchard Trees.pdf

The benefits of the pollination ability of the orchard are demonstrated with decision recommendations for the operation of coal-fired boilers.  Changes to existing coal-fired plants could cause net reductions of CO₂ by 35 percent.  Replacement of these plants with new super critical boilers and the incorporation of other technology could make a net 55 percent reduction.

Net CO₂ emissions with incremental technology additions including credits as a percent of an existing coal-fired boiler without changes:

These are net reductions and take into account the CO₂ emissions from the whole process of oil exploration through refining and gasoline transportation as opposed to ethanol production using the coal plant waste heat.  The elimination of chlor alkali plants and their resultant CO₂ contribution is included.

The CO₂ reduction costs of either retrofitting existing coal plants or the construction of new super critical plants is very low compared to renewable energy alternatives or to CO₂ capture and sequestration.  Furthermore all the technology is in place.

The resistance against operating a coal-fired power plant as a chemical plant is symptomatic of the individual decision tree thinking.  The concept of the coal plant as a major chemicals producer is possible only with Global Orchard insights.

The resistance to any new coal-fired plant is also individual decision tree thinking.  When it is accepted that coal will continue to be a major fuel for power plants for the foreseeable future, then it is necessary to apply the Global Orchard view and optimize the mix of new and old plants.

For more information on the Global Orchard, click on:  www.mcilvainecompany.com