Mercury Control

There are many positive and negative factors which could impact sales of specific mercury reduction equipment and consumables in the fifteen years through 2023, but our conclusion is that all coal units will have mercury control by 2023. Also by that time the odds are better than 50/50 that there will be at least 20 percent more coal capacity.

Multi pollutant control is a big factor in determining which mercury technology is selected. We believe that all coal plants will have SO₂ removal equipment by 2023. This will greatly influence mercury removal methods.

In the following charts we have tried to calculate the odds for each important event which can impact the total market or the share for individual technologies. These events are those which would impact the market between 2008 and 2023 and are shown in Figure 6.

FIGURE 6.  IMPORTANT EVENT ODDS 2008-2023

Negative Events for Retrofit	Odds Against # to 1
Asteroid Collision	20 million
Global Warming Catastrophe	20 million
Natural gas price drops below $4/MMBtu	1,000
Carbon tax is exorbitant	100
U.S. is only wealthy country without FGD on all plants	100
Anti-environment Executive and Legislative branches	100
Renewable energy costs are below 200% of coal	50
Nuclear impact is major	30
Gasification is major	20
Additional Negative Events, New Coal-fired Power Plants	Odds Against # to 1
Environmental lobbies are completely successful	5
Economics are ignored	5
Positive Events for Retrofit	Odds for # to 1
New Clean Air Act Amendment	10
Carper Mercury Law for Oct 08 proposal	0.02
PM2.5 NAAQS Rule	10
MACT for Toxics	10
Increase capacity	4
NSR litigation if no other law	7
Regional Haze Rule	7 (but only for about 1/3 the units)
CO2 Ready	Affects Type
Most states pass 90% MACT rules if there is no national rule on mercury	5
Mercury link to autism or other new health risk	0.001
Positive Events for New Coal-fired Power Plants	Odds for # to 1
Gas price exceeds $9/MMBtu	5
Co-firing, ethanol, hydrochloric acid	2
High electricity demand	6
Renewables supply limits	5
Nuclear supply limit	5
Coal is less than half the cost of alternatives	50
Rate payers will not support doubling electricity costs to reduce greenhouse gases	5
Carbon Capture Economic	0.1

Events shaping mercury technology selection	Odds for # to 1
Scrubbers for any plant	9
Wet scrubber selected	3.5
Dry scrubber selected	0.2
Activated carbon used prior to scrubber installation	0.1
Activated carbon used with wet scrubber	0.02
Activated carbon used with dry scrubber	8
Mercury removed down stream of scrubber	0.05
Substitutes for ACI used	0.07
Hybrid multi pollutant device	0.07
All mercury removed in wet scrubber	2

 

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