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FOSSIL AND NUCLEAR POWER GENERATION UPDATE
August 2009
McIlvaine Company
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Turbine Market is Forecast to Grow at 4.7 Percent/Year Turbine Engines to Remain Largest Product Segment 900,000 or 700,000 MW of Coal-fired Boilers in China in 2020 European Coal-fired Power Plant Progress Slowed South Africa May Construct Three New Nuclear Power Stations Jordan Seeking Potential Site for Nuclear Reactor Nuclear EPC Contracts for Westinghouse and Shaw E.ON to add Gas-fired Power Plants in Spain
Turbine Market is Forecast to Grow at 4.7 Percent/YearThe world market for turbines and related products (turbine-based engines, generators and generator sets) is projected to increase 4.7 percent annually to $104 billion in 2012. According to The Freedonia Group, growth will be supported by solid growth in aircraft production and power generation installations. Among the major consuming nations, China is expected to see the strongest gains, with demand rising more than seven percent annually as the country continues to build out its electrical infrastructure. Other developing regions will also see strong growth, while the markets in a number of developed countries, including the U.S., France and Germany will benefit from rising aircraft production. Global turbine production is centered in North America and Western Europe, which accounted for a combined 70 percent share of the total value of world shipments in 2007. The U.S. is the leading global supplier, with over $23 billion in 2007 shipments, with the United Kingdom, France and Germany also important suppliers. Over the past decade, China has also become an important turbine producer, with much of the production used to supply the large domestic market. The UK, Denmark, Germany and the U.S. are the largest net exporters of turbine products, with Denmark’s surplus consisting almost entirely of wind turbines. Despite its large domestic industry, China maintains a large trade deficit in turbines and related products, primarily in the turbine engines and wind turbine segments.
Turbine Engines to Remain Largest Product SegmentTurbine engines, which are the largest product segment, will post above average sales gains of 5.3 percent per year and approach $40 billion in 2012. Virtually all turbine engines are used to power aircraft and are based on gas turbine technology. The separate segment for gas turbines used in power generation will also experience above average growth, rising more than six percent per year to $17 billion in 2012. Environmentally benign wind turbines will continue to rise, although growth is expected to decelerate dramatically as the wind market in a number of countries matures. Still in 2012, demand for wind turbines is expected to exceed that of gas turbines. Much of the demand growth will come from countries outside the bedrock West European market, with especially strong gains in China. Increased deployment of distributed electric power generation systems in many countries will positively impact the market for microturbines and smaller gas turbines. However, microturbines are expected to remain a niche product for the foreseeable future.
900,000 or 700,000 MW of Coal-fired Boilers in China in 2020The latest specific forecast prepared by McIlvaine and displayed on this website predicts less than 800,000 MW of coal-fired generation in China in 2020. However, some experts are still predicting more than 900,000 MW. HYPERLINK TO SUPERCRITICAL PAPER FROM STEVE JENKINS European Coal-fired Power Plant Progress SlowedBy 2020, Europe will have to replace 40,000 MW of thermal power plant capacity to keep in step with approaching closures. Plans for new coal-fired power plants have run into opposition.
BerlinVattenfall Europe has decided to base replacements of an 800 MW heat plant in Berlin-Lichtenberg on gas and biomass rather than hard coal, to replace two old units at Klingenberg by 2015. It cited the environmental debate and carbon costs.
BrunsbuettelEnvironmental groups BUND and DUH criticize plans by GDF Suez to build an 800 MW hard coal-fired power plant at Brunsbuettel by 2012. A public hearing is underway and may progress into September/October.
DuesseldorfThe city utility has put off plans for a new 400 MW coal block at Lausward and is exploring alternatives including gas, citing local opposition to coal pollution and the warming effect from emitting used cooling water into the Rhine River.
Hamburg-MoorburgVattenfall Europe tries to ease tough environmental conditions attached by the Hamburg city government to plans for a 1,645 MW coal-to-power plant, which it says would make an efficient running of the plant impossible. The over €2 billion power plant may be built in the Moorburg suburb by 2012 but the conditions require the Elbe River does not overheat. To remedy this, Vattenfall has tabled a new proposal to build an 85-metre high cooling tower at a cost of €200 million to allow for continuous running of the plant.
KielThe city utility has decided to study gas as an alternative fuel to fire a small planned power plant and expects a decision by 2010. Plans for an 800 MW coal based project to replace an existing nearly 40-year old block had been shelved by the utility and its partner E.ON in April 2008 after a long row with opponents.
LubminDenmark's Dong is pursuing plans for a 1,600 MW hard coal-fired power plant in Lubmin on the Baltic Sea in Germany for startup in 2012, at a cost of €2 billion by agreeing with Vattenfall's transmission unit that it will transport the power on its networks. Protesters fear for loss of tourism revenue and the well-being of sea life.
LuenenLocal utility network Trianel in March won backing for continuing to build a 750 MW coal-fired power plant by 2012, although some questions about the inclusion of environmental organizations in decision-making about wildlife and plants were referred to European courts.
Mainz-WiesbadenKMW has been asked by a court to consider stopping preparatory work for a chimney and loading terminal for a planned 800 MW hard coal-fired power plant on the banks of the Rhine River for commissioning by 2014. A lower court upheld its support for the project earlier in July following initial approval for the start of the €1.2 billion project in May. There is controversy about the possible impact of the project on the environment, public health and tourism. The city council continues during the summer to be looking at options to end the project.
MannheimUtility MVV and its power plant unit GKM in July received permission for a 910 MW hard coal unit for start up in 2013, costing €1.2 billion, under emission control laws. Citizens group Ikema opposes the project. MVV has started preparing the site.
StadeGDF Suez and EnBW have abandoned a plan to build an 800 MW coal-to-power plant at Stade in North Germany on the site of Dow Deutschland by 2012, which they said last year would be combined with a gas driven turbine to produce over 1,000 MW.
Staudinger 6E.ON has offered to use 300 MW heat from a planned 1,100 MW hard coal-fired unit to be built at Grosskrotzenburg/Hanau near Frankfurt by 2013 to appease protesters against the related CO2 emissions. Objections to the €1.2 billion project can be filed until September 3 and will be discussed by E.ON and the authorities in November.
NUCLEAR
South Africa May Construct Three New Nuclear Power StationsAccording to a report in the Mail & Guardian, South Africa is considering three nuclear power stations on its coastline. The country currently has Africa’s sole nuclear plant, Koeberg, near Cape Town, which began generating electricity in 1984. The three new nuclear stations – provisionally known as Nuclear 1, 2 and 3 – would each be able to deliver twice as much electricity as Koeberg, Die Burger newspaper reported Tuesday. The report said details had emerged from an environmental impact study by the engineering consultancy Arcus Gibb, carried out on behalf of the government. The study suggested two new stations in Western Cape and one in Eastern Cape. A site next to the existing Koeberg power plant could be ready by January 2011, with construction of Nuclear 1 starting in 2012 and likely to take six years. The government wants to begin work at the same time on Nuclear 2 at Bantamsklip, southeast of Pearly Beach, and Nuclear 3 at Thyspunt near Cape St. Francis in Eastern Cape, the impact study said.
Jordan Seeking Potential Site for Nuclear ReactorJordan is in the process of exploring sites for its first nuclear power reactor. Khaled Tukan, chairman of the Jordan Atomic Energy Commission stated the 1,000 MW reactor would be online in either 2017 or 2018. Tractebel Suez-GDF is responsible for studies of the site which is currently under scrutiny and an analysis of the safety and environmental impact. A potential site could be in southern Jordan along the Red Sea, which is also bordered by Israel and Egypt. Jordanian and Israeli experts met in June to discuss environmental issues related to the plan, Tukan said, adding that he would hold talks on the project with Egyptian officials in August. Four companies are competing to build the nuclear plant: Areva, Kepco, Atomic Energy of Canada and Atomstroyexport.
Nuclear EPC Contracts for Westinghouse and ShawA contract for two new nuclear power units with Westinghouse Electric Co. and Shaw was expanded by South Carolina Electric and Gas Co. to include an existing nuclear power station. Westinghouse will provide two AP1000 nuclear reactors at the V.C. Summer Nuclear Station as well as maintain Unit 1. If the Nuclear Regulatory Commission approves the licenses, the proposed new reactors are scheduled for completion in 2016 and 2019. This contract is an extension of a previous contract between Westinghouse and Shaw to provide EPC services for the AP1000s. Under the new contract, the two companies will now provide services for all three units.
Nuclear Power in KoreaNuclear power costs are low in Korea: Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power Co., Ltd. (KHNP) reports 39 won per kWh (about 3c/kWh), compared with coal 53.7 won, LNG 143.6 won and hydro 162 won. KHNP average cost is 68.3 won (about 5c) per kWh.
After drawing on Westinghouse and Framatome (now Areva) technology for its first eight PWR units and Combustion Engineering (CE) (which became part of Westinghouse) for two more, the Korean Standard Nuclear Power Plant (KSNP) became a recognized design, and evolved a little to KSNP+. In 2005 the KSNP/KSNP+ was rebranded as OPR-1000 (Optimized Power Reactor) apparently for Asian markets, particularly Indonesia and Vietnam. Six operating units and four under construction are now designated OPR-1000.
The Ministry of Education, Science & Technology’s third comprehensive nuclear energy development plan for 2007-11 projected that South Korea should develop its nuclear industry into one of the top five in the world, with about 60 percent of electricity from nuclear by 2035. As well as emphasis on production of nuclear fuel, the report envisaged construction of the Korean SPR-1400 reactor. In the country’s 2008 Energy Plan to 2030, totaling some $100 billion, the increase was quantified as ten or eleven new nuclear power units.
The Advanced Pressurized Reactor-1400 draws on CE System 80+ innovations, which are evolutionary rather than radical. The APR-1400 was originally known as the Korean Next-Generation Reactor when work started on the project in 1992. The basic design was completed in 1999. It offers enhanced safety with seismic design to withstand 300 Gal ground acceleration and has a 60-year design life. Cost is expected to be 10-20 percent less than KSNP/OPR-1000. Korea Power Engineering Company is the main designer, and Doosan the main manufacturer.
South Korea has a number of nuclear power plants under construction, on order or planned. They include:
E.ON to add Gas-fired Power Plants in SpainE.ON AG, Germany’s largest utility, will focus on gas-fired power production and solar energy in Spain as part of a drive to expand generating capacity as a cap on growth at home spurs investment abroad. E.ON has 3,600 MW of installed power capacity in Spain after buying mainly gas-fired and renewable generation assets last year. It plans to raise capacity to about 5,300 MW in the “next few years,” according to its annual report. The company operates the Tarragona and Escatron combined cycle gas-fed power stations in the northeast and is converting the Bahia de Algeciras plant in the south into a combined cycle facility. The company also plans to build a gas-fired power plant in Cantabria, according to E.ON Espana’s Website.
McIlvaine Company, Northfield, IL 60093-2743 Tel: 847-784-0012; Fax: 847-784-0061; E-mail: editor@mcilvainecompany.com; Web site: www.mcilvainecompany.com
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