August 10, 2006

Planned FGD Startups in 2010 Exceed Vendor Capability

This prediction was provided by McIlvaine in the Hot Topic Hour yesterday. None of the 26 participants including five utilities disputed this and in fact several provided additional data in support. The basis for the discussion was a branch in the FGD Decision Tree titled “Schedule.” The Decision Tree was then updated late yesterday to reflect the comments from the meeting. Further comments came from an individual who was traveling and could not attend. This is illustrative of the way the Decision Tree keeps growing.
           

Continuing Decision Process For: Schedule

A critical decision is the timing of the preliminary activity and the timing of the actual installation. Presently it is a sellers market. This means that scheduling installations during peak periods will result in higher costs and possible failure to achieve the desired goals.

FGD Delay Factors

Problems

World Demand Exceeds Supply

China has only 16,000 FGD systems in operation. However, 110,000 MW are under construction. The latest estimates show a target of 290,000 MW by 2010. This means that China has to commission more than 50,000 MW of new FGD systems per year in the next five years. Most of the units will be wet limestone.

A number of other countries are scheduling FGD startups in the 2006-10 time frame.

U.S. Planned  Startups for 2010 are too High to be Achievable

Over 80,000 MW of FGD systems, both new and retrofit, are presently slated for the 2010 time frame. More new plants are being announced weekly.

The result of this demand will increase the cost of systems and failure to meet projected   startup dates.

Solutions

·         Change planned start date. Companies planning 2010 start dates may be wise to consider some alternative.
 

·         Change the technology. The demand is primarily for wet limestone FGD. Wet lime systems do not require the pumps and the ball mills which are among the critical items. So this is an alternative. Dry FGD systems also are an option. Ammonia or other reagent may also be a quicker route.
 

·         Alternative component selection. You can use smaller pumps in greater quantity to solve the pump delivery problem. Rubber lining or resin lining is popular elsewhere and eliminates the delays in obtaining high alloy steels. Basket centrifuges are an alternative to belt filters.
 

·         Alternative project approaches. TXU is planning on using standardized designs and hoping that the State of Texas will approve new plants based on permits already granted for identical projects. CAIRtech has a new project approach with the complete scrubber system inside one tower.