WELCOME
Weekly selected highlights in flow control,
treatment and combustion from the many McIlvaine
publications. |
Overview
Our IIoT webinars have been recorded and offer free market information on each
industry. Our webinar tomorrow on
renewables has forecasts for wind, solar, biomass, geothermal and hydro plus
specific opportunities at BHE. Our
pulp and paper, pharmaceutical, chemical and other recent webinars provided
rankings for the top purchasers.
The nuclear webinar on October 11 will provide insights on the combust,
flow, and treat purchases of the major nuclear power generators. To
register for our webinars click on:
Bob McIlvaine will be speaking at the Dry Scrubber Users Association conference
on the 20th and will be roaming the exhibit Hall at WEFTEC the week
of the 30th. He would
welcome the chance to talk to you.
As you can see from the following analyses, Mcilvaine is providing forecasts for
the range of combust, flow, and treat products for the 550 largest operators
(end users) but also for the 400 largest OEM/EPC's.
In the new IIoT world high performance products will be purchased or the
decisions made about them by relatively few people.
The mass of data on the performance of every valve, pump, filter, and fan
will be in the hands of the corporate people.
They will then be very influential and knowledgeable.
By identifying the experts making these decisions it is then desirable to link
them up with the experts in your organization. High performance products by
definition are purchased based on total cost of ownership analyses. The cloud is
going to be generating continuous TCO analyses of every product.
This being the case some claims made by non-experts will not be
effective. So, sales success in the
future will be by leveraging your lower total cost of ownership and utilizing
your experts to make the case.
FGD Purchases of $19 billion are Being Determined by Only a Few Thousand People
FGD consumables include lime, limestone, water treatment chemicals, filtration
cartridges and belts, membranes, dust bags, seals, balls for ball mills, general
performance analyzers and similar items.
Minor replacements include nozzles, valves, general performance pumps,
and mist eliminators. Repairs are
needed for high performance pumps, dampers, high performance valves, scrubber
linings, continuous emissions monitoring systems, fans and high-performance
analyzers.
Many FGD systems in the U.S., Japan and Europe were installed in the 1980s.
These systems are being updated with extensive automation and in some
cases new scrubber vessels. New pumps and fans are also being installed.
In part this is due to end of life issues but often upgrades are required
to meet tougher regulations.
The yearly FGD capacity additions have peaked both quantitatively and in terms
of percent increases. In the 1980s the new yearly additions were 20,000 MW per
year but in the early 1980s this represented as much as 20 percent of the
installed capacity. At the peak in
2005 the yearly additions were 90,000 MW but only represented 10 percent of the
total installed capacity. Now
orders for new systems have dropped to 60,000 MW per year but this represents
only 4 percent of the installed capacity.
What this means is a big change in the ratio between markets for new systems and
the purchases for existing systems.
The market for new systems in 2018 will only be $3 billion while the purchases
for existing systems will be $16 billion. Most of the new purchases will be in a
few Asian countries. The total $19
billion market will be dominated by relatively few end users and suppliers
according to the latest forecast in
N027 FGD
Market and Strategies.
FGD System, Component,
Consumables and Repair Purchases
in 2018 |
||||
Company |
Country |
Rank |
% of Total Coal-fired FGD
Purchases in 2018 |
FGD Purchases |
AEP |
U.S. |
9 |
1.1 |
209 |
BWE |
U.S. |
14 |
0.6 |
114 |
Datang |
China |
3 |
7 |
1,330 |
Duke |
U.S. |
10 |
1 |
190 |
Enel |
Italy |
13 |
1 |
190 |
Eskom |
South Africa |
5 |
6 |
1,140 |
Guodian |
China |
2 |
7.5 |
1,425 |
Huaneng |
China |
1 |
9 |
1,710 |
Huadian |
China |
6 |
6 |
1,140 |
J-Power |
Japan |
16 |
0.5 |
95 |
National Thermal Power
Corporation (NTPC) |
India |
4 |
7 |
1,330 |
NRG |
U.S. |
11 |
1 |
190 |
Shenhua |
China |
7 |
4.5 |
855 |
Southern |
U.S. |
12 |
1 |
190 |
Uniper |
Germany |
15 |
0.6 |
114 |
Vietnam Power (EVN) |
Vietnam |
8 |
2 |
380 |
Sub Total |
|
|
55.8 |
10,602 |
Other |
|
|
44.2 |
8,398 |
TOTAL |
|
|
|
19,000 |
Many of the decisions are increasingly being made by OEMS, and EPCs.
Let's take the example of flow control components such as pumps, valves,
fans, and dampers. For new systems
the end user will not often directly purchase these components.
Large FGD system suppliers will typically purchase or specify the
specific brand and product.
FGD system suppliers are making a big effort to serve their existing customers
with O&M services which include component replacement.
In the future third party O&M will become commonplace as explained in
N031
Industrial IoT and Remote O&M.
The remote monitoring of every valve, pump, fan and damper will generate unique
knowledge for the corporate utility personnel and OEMs.
As a result, a few thousand people in 31 corporations will make more than
70 percent of the purchase decisions for high performance FGD components.
Decision Makers for High
Performance FGD Components |
Percent |
Top 16 operators - Direct |
40 |
Top 16 EPCs and OEMs for the top
16 operators |
12 |
Smaller EPCS for top 16
operators |
3.8 |
Top 16 operators sub total |
55.8 |
Top 16 EPC's for smaller
operators |
15 |
Top 31 sub total |
70.8 |
Purchases by smaller EPCs for
smaller operators |
9 |
Smaller operators - Direct |
20.2 |
Total |
100 |
The market report provides forecasted purchases by each of the large operators
and OEMS. Detailed profiles of the
FGD OEMS are also provided.
Detailed profiles of the operators are found in
42EI
Utility Tracking System
which also tracks individual projects on a weekly basis.
For more information click on the markets click on
N027 FGD
Market and Strategies
or contact Bob McIlvaine at
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
847-784-0012 ext. 112.
Pharmaceutical Membrane Cartridge Market to Exceed $1.2 billion Next Year
Membrane cartridges are used in separation processes in the pharmaceutical
industry. They are also used to
purify water for use in products. A third use is the removal of contaminants
from wastewater. According to the latest forecast in
Cartridge Filters:
World Market the pharmaceutical industry will spend $1.2 billion on
cartridges in 2018.
Pharmaceutical Membrane Cartridge Purchases
$ millions
World Region |
2018 |
Total |
1,198
|
Africa |
13
|
CIS |
7
|
East Asia |
308
|
Eastern Europe |
15
|
Middle East |
33
|
NAFTA |
418
|
South & Central America |
53
|
West Asia |
47
|
Western Europe |
304
|
NAFTA will continue to be the leading consumer although East Asia is showing the
most quantitative growth. West Asia and specifically India is showing the
largest percentage growth.
Membrane cartridges are in the high-performance category.
This means that they are purchased more based on performance and less on
price. As a result, a few thousand
people at end users, EPCs, and system supplier companies are making most of the
purchase decisions. The top three
pharmaceutical companies are spending more than $130 million/yr. for these
cartridges.
Ranking |
Company |
2020 Membrane
Cartridge
Purchases
$ millions |
Market Share
% |
1 |
Pfizer |
49 |
4.40 |
2 |
Merck |
34 |
3.00 |
3 |
Roche |
37 |
3.29 |
4 |
Sanofi |
33 |
2.99 |
5 |
Johnson & Johnson |
31 |
2.79 |
6 |
Novartis |
30 |
2.71 |
7 |
AbbVie |
24 |
2.14 |
8 |
Gilead |
23 |
2.04 |
9 |
AstraZeneca |
22 |
1.92 |
10 |
Amgen |
22 |
1.92 |
11 |
GlaxoSmithKline |
21 |
1.88 |
12 |
Takeda |
19 |
1.70 |
13 |
Teva |
17 |
1.53 |
This report provides forecasts for 80 countries in each industry for four types
of cartridges. It also provides estimated purchases by 550 end users and 400
EPC's, and system suppliers.
For more information click on
N024
Cartridge Filters: World Market
Bob Mcilvaine can answer questions and can be reached at
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com 847-784-0012 ext. 112