Decisive Classification is an Important New Tool in Air, Water and Energy
A Decisive Classification system promises to make the following contributions:
• Increase world productivity and GDP
• Allow developing nations to utilize the wisdom of the developed world
• Eliminate language barriers
• Encourage the selection of lowest life cycle cost products rather than those
with lowest initial cost
The Decisive Classification system is being developed by the McIlvaine Company
and is accessible free of charge in the Global Decisions Orchard website.
All decisions are a sequence of classifications. The more relevant the
classifications, the better the decision. In the increasingly international
world it is also important that classifications be precise and that this
precision is conveyed in the appropriate languages of which Chinese and English
are the two most important.
The system is designed to assist purchasers in finding the right products in the
air, water and energy sectors. But it is also equally useful to suppliers,
researchers and even investors.
The purchaser typically starts with classifying his application. McIlvaine has
adopted the U.S. NAICS code system but with decisive additions.
Internal Data Search by Application
Click
Here Application Sequencing
z
211111 - Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas Extraction Oil Shale
z
211111 - Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas Extraction Shale Gas 页岩气
z
211111 - Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas Extraction Shale Oil
In this case McIlvaine has chosen to separate oil shale from shale oil. The
reason is that they are two completely different applications. Shale oil can be
extracted with hydraulic fracturing because it is a liquid. Oil shale must be
heated in-situ or mined in order to process the solid kerogens.
Classification of products is by market share rather than by theory. A decade
ago dissolved oxygen monitors were based on either galvanic or polarographic
methods. Then optical instruments gained popularity. This created three
categories. Today optical instruments are dominant, so the first classification
should now be optical or electrochemical. This classification is very valuable
to the searcher because it indicates that it is more important to decide between
optical and electrochemical than between specific electrochemical approaches. A
new development in this field uses nanotechnology. Therefore, the
classifications are likely to change again.
The classification sequence includes applications, processes, products, goals,
tasks and supplier companies. A process could be water treatment. The goals
could be safety or air quality. One of the big problems with identifying
supplier companies is the multiple names in Chinese and English. This is
overcome by a system whereby every company is identified by a number. The
corporate name in Chinese and English is linked to the number as is the precise
subsidiary name.
Tasks and products are identified in a parent–child system. Here is an example
for catalyst maintenance for a power plant selective catalytic reduction system:
Other Children of Catalyst Maintenance:
Parent Descriptor Chinese Descriptor Definition
Catalyst Maintenance Cleaning Catalyst 催化剂除灰 A dry process that utilizes vacuum
and compressed air to mechanically remove as much of the flyash accumulation as
possible.
Catalyst Maintenance Regeneration Catalyst 催化剂再生 “Catalyst cleaning” followed by
a wet chemical process to remove decay compounds plus re-impregnation of the
catalytic compound(s).
Catalyst Maintenance Rejuvenation Catalyst 催化剂复原 “Catalyst cleaning” followed by
a wet chemical process to remove some decay compounds with minimum removal of
catalytic compound(s). There is no re-impregnation of the catalytic compound(s).
The value of this classification to Chinese power plant operators is
substantial. They have just recently installed their first DeNOx systems and do
not have the maintenance experience to be familiar with the options. A system
which clarifies that there are three main options is therefore very helpful.
The McIlvaine Company will continue to develop the system and is seeking input
from associations, governments and corporations. A niche expert network is also
being established to ensure that the classifications reflect the world’s
knowledge.
For more information, click on: Global Decisions Orchard or contact the
McIlvaine Company at editor@mcilvainecompany.com 847-784-0012.
Market for Chemicals to Treat Air will Grow Faster than Water
The present world market for chemicals to combat air pollutants is $13.8 billion
but will be growing at a healthy eight percent per year over the next five
years. The larger ($24 billion) water treatment chemicals market will be growing
by six percent per yr (real dollars). These are the latest findings by McIlvaine
Company through extracting forecasts from a number of its market reports.
Category U.S. World
$ Millions Tons
Millions
$ Millions Tons
Millions
Lime Total 2,000 20 33,000 330
Lime Air 600 4 1,800 12
Lime Water 120 1 4,800 4
Limestone Total 7,000 700 70,000 7,000
Limestone Air 400 35 2,000 175
Ammonia DeNOx 1,500 6,000
Other Chemicals in Air 1,000 4,000
Air Sub Total 3,500 13,800
Water/Wastewater
Treatment Chemicals 4,500 24,000
Air to Water Ratio % 78 58
Presently, lime, limestone and ammonia are the chemicals most used for air
pollution control. However, the use of other chemicals will be growing at
double-digit rates. In the U.S. this segment presently generates $1 billion in
revenues. It includes activated carbon, sodium products, bromine, potassium
permanganate, hydrogen peroxide, sulfuric acid, amines and certain other
chemicals. These chemicals are used for mercury, acid gas, volatile organic
compounds, odor, CO2 and microbial capture or destruction.
The U.S. market for activated carbon for air pollution promises to be twice as
big as the market in water pollution which is presently 400 million pounds per
year. Norit, Calgon Carbon, Albemarle and a joint venture involving ADA-ES are
the major players. Bromine is competing with activated carbon. Chemtura,
Albemarle and ICl are spearheading the U.S. effort.
FMC has formed an environmental group to supply air pollution, water pollution
and remediation products. Hydrogen peroxide is being promoted for NOx control
FMC, Tata Chemicals and Church & Dwight have formed Natronix to offer various
sodium products for SO3 and SO2 capture. Potassium permanganate is used for odor
control. Amines are used for CO2 and SO2 capture.
Lime usage in the U.S. is 20 million tons with revenues of $2 billion.
Environmental uses are seven million tons but with the average price of $150/ton
generate revenues of $1 billion. Air applications now account for 80 percent of
the total environmental revenues. Lhoist, Carmeuse, Graymont and Mississippi
Lime are quite active in the U.S. market. The Chinese market for lime is
presently 180 million tons with less than two percent used for air pollution
control, but there will be double-digit annual growth over the next five years.
Dry injection for HCl control will boost lime sales in the U.S. Another
potential is the use in inhibited oxidation wet SO2 removal systems. The
resultant calcium sulfite sludge can be fixed with excess lime and encapsulate
toxic metals. This eliminates the need for expensive wastewater treatment.
Limestone will continue to be the most utilized reagent for SO2 capture. The
largest growth will be in China in the next decade.
Ammonia is used in various forms (anhydrous and aqueous). A popular alternative
is the purchase of urea and on-site conversion to ammonia. A huge NOx control
program is underway in China. A preference for the urea to ammonia approach has
been indicated.
The $24 billion water and wastewater chemicals market will grow at levels well
above GDP in the next five years, but its pace will be slower than air. One
reason is that non-chemical technologies such as Ultra-Violet disinfection and
electrodeionization are taking market share away from chemicals. In the U. S.,
air chemicals presently represent 78 percent of the total for water. This will
increase to 85 percent over the next five years.
Information on these markets is found in:
FGD World Markets, click on:
http://www.mcilvainecompany.com/brochures/air.html#N027
NOx Control World Markets,
http://www.mcilvainecompany.com/brochures/air.html#n035
Water and Wastewater Treatment Chemicals: World Market
http://www.mcilvainecompany.com/brochures/water.html#NO26
Highlights From the May 10 McIlvaine Markets Webinar
Analysts and executives were participants in the McIlvaine Markets webinar last
week. One of the questions was in response to the display showing that all the
markets are fractured. The top five companies in valves, pumps, filters, etc.
have less than 10 percent of the world market. The question was: Why are they
fractured?
The answer was that it is easy to roll-up a market dependent on mass production
or mass marketing. Economies of scale can be achieved without too much
difficulty. But the air and water roll-up synergies are based on shared
knowledge. Creating an environment where disparate groups are willing to share
knowledge is very difficult. Early failures have discouraged newcomers from
pursuing the roll-up strategy.
Here are some of the insights which were discussed at the May 10 meeting:
Mercury, Activated Carbon, Ballast Water
• R.W. Baird projects big earnings for ADA-ES based on refined coal success and
opportunities to sell systems to remove air toxics.
• Activated carbon potential is expanded by new potential to utilize it in the
scrubber to separate the mercury from the gypsum.
• The FLS roaster concept would make activated carbon applicable even when
flyash is to be sold. It could also open the door to a big market for metals
recovery and solve the huge waste disposal problem facing power plants.
• Activated carbon can also remove selenium. This recent discovery could boost
the market.
• W. L. Gore and Shaw have technologies to threaten activated carbon. The Gore
technology is a trim system to be used with a wet scrubber, whereas Shaw uses
bromine compounds to supplement the existing air pollution control equipment.
• Norit is looking at either IPO or sale as a result of big debt load. Goldman
Sachs is the adviser. Norit is the largest A-C supplier to the U.S. power
market.
• Calgon Carbon is second largest supplier of A-C for mercury, but a bigger
potential is in ballast water treatment with UV and complete systems.
• Alfa Laval, Veolia, Severn Trent and Calgon Carbon are early leaders in a
ballast water treatment market which will generate $70 billion in revenues in
just seven years.
Energy and Pollution
• Renewables are unreliable and are supplemented by big CO2 emitters such as
peaking turbines. Schneider Electric has technologies to extend renewables
reliability.
• Co-location of sewage treatment, waste-to-energy and coal-fired power would be
cost effective and have big environmental benefits. Siemens, Doosan, Xylem and a
few others are well positioned to take advantage of these opportunities.
• Energy Recovery bought back over one million shares at a low price of around
$2/share after prices plunged due to loss of a mega project desalination order.
• GE is a major player in small desalination plants, treatment chemicals, solid
liquid separation and air and dust filter media. Analysts’ near-term assessments
are mixed. Last month Morgan Stanley lowered their EPS estimates. Analysts at
Goldman Sachs raised their price target; Nomura reiterated a “buy” rating.
Barclays Capital reiterated a “top pick” rating on shares of General Electric in
a research note to investors on Tuesday, April 17th.
• Shale gas fracking could be a big market for suppliers of zero liquid
discharge systems including GE, Aquatech and Veolia.
Water Treatment
• Electrodeionization has a great future according to McIlvaine Company. Siemens
is focusing on its use in desalination. Nalco is pursuing the technology for
biofuels. Snowpure is a little company starting to have a big impact with EDI
for Chinese power plants.
• Xylem first quarter revenue was up six percent to over $900 million. The
integration of YSI is going well and underscores the potential for
instrumentation and monitoring to enhance treatment. Xylem paid $310 million for
YSI, which had 2010 revenues of $101 million. Janney was adviser to YSI for this
transaction as well as the YSI purchase of Design Analysis Associates in 2009
which brought the hydrological monitoring. There is a big potential in
hydrological monitoring for the shale and coal ash pond markets.
• Culligan has reportedly hired advisers relative to corporate restructure.
Chapter 11 may be one option to deal with a $900 million loan. The private
equity firm Clayton Dubilier & Rice currently owns the company and could
consider selling, according to one source.
• Pentair first quarter earnings were down but, "It was a muted quarter, not
indicative of the business going forward assuming the Tyco deal goes through,"
said John Quealy, an analyst at Canaccord Genuity. Tyco posted a second-quarter
profit that beat analyst estimates, thanks to sales growth in its key segments.
• Rexnord Corporation (NYSE: RXN) closed its initial public offering last month
of 27,236,842 shares of common stock at $18.00 per share. The net proceeds were
approximately $459 million. BofA Merrill Lynch, Goldman, Sachs & Co.. Credit
Suisse Securities (USA) LLC, Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. and Barclays
Capital, Inc. acted as joint book-running managers in connection with the
offering.
• Pall is receiving $536 million for sale of blood filtration unit to
Haemonetics. Larry Kingsley, CEO said, “It will enable Pall to focus on markets
and opportunities where we are best positioned for growth.”
• IDEX has acquired ERC. ERC’s products include in-line membrane vacuum
degassing solutions, refractive index detectors and ozone generation systems.
Located in Kawaguchi, Japan, ERC has a global customer base and annual revenues
of approximately ¥2.14 billion.
Air
• Foster Wheeler has entered the air market with the purchase of Graf-Wulff and
can take advantage of the fast growing fluid bed dry scrubber segment.
• Doosan has also expanded in the air market and has a number of technologies
thanks to the purchase of AEE. Doosan is also a major player in desalination.
• Demand for lime will increase due to new air toxic regulations in the U.S.
This will benefit Graymont, Mississippi Lime and Lafarge.
• B&W stock has ranged from $18-$31/share over the last 52 weeks and is
presently in the mid twenties. The company could benefit significantly from the
new U.S. air toxic regulations.
• Alstom sales should increase by more than five percent per year over the next
three years while operating margin should gradually improve to around eight
percent in March 2015, said Patrick Kron, Alstom’s Chairman and Chief Executive
Officer.
On May 31 we will be conducting a webinar on “Air Pollution Markets.” You can
register at:
http://www.mcilvainecompany.com/brochures/hot_topic_hour_registration.htm.
Electric Power Highlights will be Hot Topic Hour at 10:00 a.m. May 18
The Electric Power conference next week will be rich in intelligence about all
the issues which are facing the industry. McIlvaine will be asking speakers and
exhibitors to provide their opinions about the future. Here are the questions
which we will address:
• How many coal-fired power plants will shut down rather than add new air toxic
controls?
• Is dry injection a viable long-range option or just for power plants with a
few years remaining life?
• Will state regulations relative to ambient air quality trump MATS?
• What will be the price of natural gas over the next 15 years not just next
year?
• What mercury control technologies are going to prevail?
• With a high efficiency approach such as REACT, will the BACT change?
• Why not adopt inhibited oxidation wet lime with chemical fixing of the sludge
to avoid all the wastewater metal removal problems?
• What will be the end result relative to ash disposal or sale, ponds and
wastewater cleanup? Does the roaster concept expand the options?
• Are the high temperature catalysts the best option for combined cycle SCR?
• Can you accurately measure at the levels mandated by the new NSPS?
• Is co-location of municipal wastewater treatment, waste-to-energy and
coal-fired power plants a winner?
• What are the byproduct opportunities from coal, e.g. sulfuric acid,
fertilizer, metal extraction, etc?
• What are the biggest uncertainties facing fossil-fired power plant operators?
We will be gathering answers to these questions at the show and will discuss
those answers with participants.
To register on Friday, May 18 at 10:00 a.m. (Central time) click on:
http://www.mcilvainecompany.com/brochures/hot_topic_hour_registration.htm.
$2 Billion Replacement Membrane Market This Year
Revenues for reverse osmosis, microfiltration and ultrafiltration modules will
exceed $2 billion this year. This is the latest finding in the McIlvaine report,
RO, UF, MF World Market. This forecast is in 2010 dollars not adjusted for
inflation, so the revenues in current dollars will be closer to $2.1 billion.
The forecast is also based on equivalent unit sales in developing countries. The
actual revenues in China will be only 65 percent and even lower in India. This
is due to lower prices per unit. Hence, the net effect when adjusting for
purchasing parity and inflation is a market of $1.9 billion.
The Asian market will grow at a faster rate than the other regions. This is due
to the increased purchase of membrane systems for desalination, water reuse,
mining, food and beverage, residential and commercial buildings and
semiconductors. The only market where other regions are keeping pace is
pharmaceuticals.
The trends toward larger membrane modules are promising to increase the market
even though the cost per unit of throughput are less. The reason is that lower
costs of membrane filtration cause capture of market share away from thermal
treatment and other alternative routes.
Water reuse is becoming increasingly popular and necessary in many parts of
Asia. Much of China is arid. The rainfall per capital is low compared to the
U.S. The increase in industrial output is accelerating the need for pure water.
The solution is the reuse of municipal wastewater for power plant cooling water
as well as for golf courses and lawns. Microfiltration and ultrafiltration
membranes combined with biological treatment can provide acceptable purity for
these applications.
Sewer mining is the terminology used for the extraction of sewage and treatment
in membrane systems. The membrane reject flow is directed back to the sewer
while the gray water is used for the golf courses or lawns. Membrane bioreactors
provide a unique hybrid system. The membranes are submerged in the biological
reaction tank. This incorporation of two processes in one tank cuts costs, size
and energy consumption.
Dow Chemical is the largest supplier of replacement membrane modules. A number
of Japanese, European and now Chinese suppliers are also now in the market
place. The replacement cycle for modules can be as long as seven years or as
short as a few months depending on the application. Even seawater varies
depending on the location. Module life in plants desalinating Gulf Coast U.S.
water can be considerably different than plants in the Red Sea.
Applications in various industries differ greatly. Semiconductor chip rinsing
requires high performance. Ultrapure water for power plant steam cycles and
pharmaceutical water for injection (WFI) also demand high purity and
reliability.
For more information on RO, UF, MF World Market, click on:
http://www.mcilvainecompany.com/brochures/water.html#no20
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You can register for our free McIlvaine Newsletters at:
http://www.mcilvainecompany.com/brochures/Free_Newsletter_Registration_Form.htm.
Bob McIlvaine
President
847-784-0012 ext 112
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
www.mcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
Copyright © 2012 McIlvaine Company. All Rights Reserved
191 Waukegan Road Suite 208 | Northfield | IL 60093
Ph: 847-784-0012 | Fax: 847-784-0061
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