Webinar Covering Gas Turbine Market Thursday, March 10, 2016
We invite you to join us Thursday, March 10 for a free webinar to discuss the
market for gas turbine combined cycle systems and components. This market is
growing faster than other markets in the U.S. as well as other countries. Click
Here to Register
$40 Billion Gas Turbine System Equipment and Parts Market Will Be Impacted By
Many Factors
The present market for gas turbine system equipment and parts is $40 billon. The
market will grow faster than GDP over the next 10 years, but the rate of growth
for systems is subject to a number of variables. The rate of growth for some
individual products will be much higher. For example, the revenue for gas intake
filters and high performance coatings will grow at double digit rates even if
the number of units does not.
Due to normal operating temperatures, there is considerable deterioration of
parts and need for replacement. The more recent practice of cycling operations
as many as 200 times per year is creating flow accelerated corrosion (FAC)
problems and increasing part deterioration rates. As a result, the present
market for parts and consumables of US$11.5 billion will grow faster than the
new plant market. Another reason for the comparative gain of parts over new
product purchases is the increasing ratio of plants in place to new plants being
constructed.
More than $4 billion will be spent for pumps and valves in 2016. Some of the
product forecasts incorporate portions of other forecasts. For example the
forecasts for stainless steel and high performance coatings are in part included
in the pumps and valves forecasts.
There is a very large market for treatment chemicals including corrosion control
and scale inhibitors. Intake water treatment for the steam and cooling systems,
ultrapure water treatment for fogging nozzles, and wastewater treatment all
require substantial yearly expenditures for chemicals.
The rate of growth for various products in coming years will be driven by a
number of variables, including the following:
Drivers Impacting Future Markets for Gas Turbine Equipment and Parts
Category Factor Driver Market Impact
General Fuel price Low gas prices Based on long term forecast not present prices
Alternative power generation High cost of offshore wind, subsidies Europe moving
back to gas
Electricity prices Regulated vs. unregulated Total cost of ownership
Products Air intake filters Higher efficiency for turbine protection Could boost
market by 50%
SCRs Regulations in Europe and elsewhere Big increase in market where required
Pumps FAC and other cycling challenges Market growing faster than total GT
market
Valves FAC and other cycling challenges Market growing faster than total GT
market
Seals Pump, valve, compressor and new turbine designs Market growing faster than
total GT market
Zero liquid discharge (ZLD) systems Regulations, aridity and reluctance to wait
for water permits Growing market in U.S., China and elsewhere
Stainless Steel New turbine designs Continuing opportunity for high performance
materials
HRSGs and
steam turbines Addition of steam tail to existing peakers to meet energy and
greenhouse gas goals Substantial market impact as many plants are upgrading
Regulatory Greenhouse gases Limits or penalties on CO2 emissions Negative impact
on market vs. renewables but positive vs coal
Harm to aquatic life Regulations forcing less intake and less once through water
ZLD, dry cooling, municipal water reuse
Water discharge limits U.S. has new regulations More ZLD
NOx emissions Tough regulations in U.S. and potential new regulations in Europe
Steady positive impact on SCR and urea markets as prices are lowered in various
countries
Regulatory impacts will be important in determining not only the volume of
products which will be sold but the margins at which those products will be
sold. International suppliers will want to offer products at higher prices but
with lower total cost of ownership than the local suppliers.
For suppliers, the primary thing to realize is that regulated utilities in the
U.S. go through a rate-making process which guarantees a reasonable profit based
on reasonable expenses. These utilities are going to be more interested in low
cost solutions, otherwise the cost may not be fully accepted by a utility
commission.
Unregulated entities, on the other hand, are much more market oriented and
motivated by profit. These companies will be interested in cost effective
solutions, which might include efficiency improvements or lower long term
maintenance and operation cost improvements.
Detailed market forecasts of the total market are included in 59EI Gas Turbine
and Combined Cycle Supplier Program
Forecasts for specific products are found in MARKETS
A webinar on March 10 at 10:00 a.m. CST will cover the market and many of the
variables. It is free of charge. Click Here to Register
Knowledge Beats Muscle in Gaining Market Share in Flow Control and Treatment
Industries
The economic progress of the world can be characterized by the increasing market
share of knowledge over muscle. In the flow control and treatment industry this
knowledge to muscle ratio will change more rapidly in the next decade than at
any time in the past.
Increasing market share in the flow control industry can be likened to a
treasure hunt. Knowledge will determine the flow control treasure hunt winners
in the future. The lone hunter who understands each clue better will win out
over the aggregate muscle of multiple hunters engaged in unfocused searching.
The value proposition is the first clue. Why will the product reduce the total
cost of ownership more than the competitor’s product in each specific industry
and process within that industry? Muscle is a big promotional investment
claiming superiority. Knowledge is creditable facts and research which is
organized and available to those who can best use it.
The second clue is the specific market potential in each geography, industry and
process. Muscle is top down guesstimates based on a myriad of statistics and
assumptions. Knowledge is the bottoms up analysis of each industry and process
The third clue is the identification of projects and customers. Large customers
and large projects represent a major portion of the market. They need to be
identified long before the typical sales lead would be received. Within the
purchasing entity there are behind-the-scene decision makers who are very
important. To increase market share it is important to reach these individuals.
The fourth clue is a coordination. Management, engineering and sales should all
be involved in creating value propositions for each product in each industry.
Market forecasts should be in sufficient detail to create quotas or targets for
each sales territory. Feedback from these sales people should be part of a
continuous effort. Many opportunities involve multiple geographies and products.
Voluntary bottoms up rather than top down program using the KOC strategy
(Knowledge, Organization and Collaboration) will pay big dividends.
The McIlvaine Company has a number of treasure hunt programs for flow control
and treatment companies. More information on them can be obtained by contacting
Bob McIlvaine at rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com or 847 784 0012 ext. 112.
A Complex Multitude of Air Quality Decisions Need to Be Made by the World’s
Coal-fired Power Plants
Coal-fired power generators supply more electricity than gas, wind or solar.
Expenditures for new power plants continue at a rate in developing countries
sufficient to ensure that the net world coal-fired generating capacity will
continue to increase. Both existing power plant operators and new power plant
developers have a large number of complex decisions to make about achieving air
quality.
Power Plant Air Quality Decisions is a combination of alerts and decision
systems, which helps the power plants make the best decisions and helps
suppliers understand the issues and options.
Here are some of the options:
Option A Option B Option C
Mercury Reduction
Activated Carbon Chemicals in Fuel Absorber Module
Mercury CEMS Sorbent Traps Both
DeNOx
SCR SNCR Catalytic Filter
SO2
Wet Scrubbers Dry Scrubbers Direct Injection
Lime/Limestone Sodium Ammonia
Particulate
Precipitator Fabric Filter Hybrid
Opacity monitor Mass Monitor with Physical Capture Mass Monitor with Electronic
Measurement/ Conversion
Discrete Particles Condensibles Total particulate
Hourly limits Daily limits Yearly Limits
Selenium Capture
Activated Carbon Scrubber Not Captured
HCl Capture
Chloride Salts in Dry Mix Chloride Salts Washed from Gypsum 30% Grade
Hydrochloric Acid
There are a number of other decisions which influence the above choices. If
there is a market for flyash, it will impact the choice of mercury and SO2
capture technologies. If the expected plant life is long, then the particulate
and SO2 technology selections will be different than if the remaining life is
short.
There are many new developments which are likely to change future decision
making. The catalytic filter with direct sorbent injection combines three
devices into one. More importantly, it provides clean hot gas at 850°F and
facilitates maximum heat recovery and energy efficiency.
The use of gasified waste as a “reburn” fuel reduces operating costs and reduces
the CO2 footprint. The use of treated municipal wastewater plus zero liquid
discharge (ZLD) technology makes the plant a positive contributor to improved
water quality in the region.
The extraction of rare earths and valuable metals from the ash promise to make
coal-fired power an important resource.
For more information on 44I Power Plant Air Quality Decisions click on:
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/other/2-uncategorised/86-44i
Utility E-Alert Tracks Billions of Dollars of New Coal-fired Power Plants on a
Weekly Basis
Here are some headlines from the Utility E-Alert.
UTILITY E-ALERT
#1262 – March 4, 2016
Table of Contents
COAL – US
Supreme Court bars Coal Industry Petition for unlimited Mercury Emissions
COAL – WORLD
POSCO Energy to build Coal-fired Power Plant in Vietnam
China and Pakistan sign Contract to build a Coal-fired Power Plant in Pakistan
Edenville Energy to invest in Coal-fired Power Plant and Coal Mine in Tanzania
Marubeni may build a Coal-fired Power Plant in Egypt
Meubolah Coal-fired Power Station Two Unit expansion in Aceh Province,
Indonesia
Proposed 625 MW Unit 9 planned for Banten Suralaya Power Station in Banten
Province, Indonesia
300 MW Unit 3 Kaltim Teluk Balikpapan Power Station expansion announced in
East Kalimantan Province, Indonesia
PLN to build $2 Billion Coal-fired Power Plant in Banten, Indonesia Next Year
BHEL wins $822.9 Million Contract to build thermal power plant in Tamil Nadu,
India
The 41F Utility E-Alert is issued weekly and covers the coal-fired projects,
regulations and other information important to the suppliers. It is $950/yr. but
is included in the $3020 42EI Utility Tracking System which has data on every
plant and project plus networking directories and many other features.
McIlvaine Hot Topic Hours (HTH) and Recordings
Explanation Applicable Services Schedule & Registration Sponsored Webinars
McIlvaine conducts periodic webinars which are in a discussion format and are
free of charge to all participants. The displayed material and recordings are
free to purchasers of the products and services and by subscription to others.
Format: 50-90 minute recorded discussion using McIlvaine display material. The
session will be free of charge to all participants but registration is required.
Approach: There are two types of webinars. One is focused on Markets and
directed to suppliers. The other is focused on aiding purchasers make the best
Decisions relative to purchases of flow control and treatment equipment and
services.
Markets HTH
The general overviews of the market including size and major variables will be
discussed with heavy emphasis on technology and regulatory drivers. The
presentation will be based on the latest information appearing in McIlvaine
multi-client reports. Questions and views from both subscribers and
non-subscribers are encouraged.
Decisions HTH
McIlvaine has been publishing information systems on pollution control since
1974. Each subject is organized by the pollutant control technology e.g. fabric
filter, scrubber, etc. There are search capabilities to retrieve information on
any application. The newest addition has been slide deck systems displaying the
issues and options relative to a specific applications. Coal-fired power,
cement, steel and waste combustion decision slide decks are continually updated.
The continually updated slide decks are displayed on the applicable decision
system. It is recommended that participants view the slide deck in advance of
the session and be prepared with questions and views.
Value to purchasers and specifiers: Your questions and interests will be
prioritized in the discussion. You will get a monthly newsletter and have
continuing access to the system and multiple ways to interface in the future
along with a networking directory of suppliers.
Value to Suppliers: You have the opportunity to provide data to be considered at
no charge. If you are also a subscriber you will see the summaries in advance
and be able to shed light on issues and options not properly covered in the
slide deck. If you are a subscriber you will receive the monthly newsletter and
continuing yearly access to the system including networking directories.
44I Power Plant Air Quality Decisions includes 1ABC, 3ABC, 4ABC, 9ABC decision
services but not 2ABC. So those with multiple technologies and at least partial
focus on power will find this combination most cost effective.
Applicable Services for Hot Topic Hours**
Pollutant
Industry Fabric Filter
(1ABC) Scrubber
(2ABC) Precipitator
(4ABC) FGD & DeNOx
(3ABC) Air Pollution
Monitoring
(9ABC) Gas
Turbine
Decisions
Mercury
February
11, 2016 Coal X X
WTE X X X
Sewage X X X
Cement X X
Natural Gas*
DeNOx
March 24, 2016 Coal X X
Incineration X X
Steel X X
Cement X X
Diesel*
Gas Turbine X X
Hot Gas
Filtration Coal X X X X
WTE X X X X
Cement X X X X
Steel X X X X
Incineration X X X X
Coal Gas X X X
GT Intake X
FGD and Acid Gas
June 16, 2016 Coal X X
Sewage X X
WTE X X
Cement X X
Steel X X
*Included in custom system
** Many of the decision guides also are displayed in the relevant market
reports. Power Plant Air Quality Decisions includes 1ABC, 3ABC, 4ABC, 9ABC
HOT TOPIC HOUR (HTH) SCHEDULE
Dates for the next 6 meetings are firm; the others will be held in sequence at
approximately two week intervals. Unforeseen developments could dictate the
insertion of new subjects.
DATE SUBJECT
March 10, 2016
Markets Gas Turbine - Intake filter, SCR, NH3, HRSG, valve, pump,
instrumentation and cooling options (dry vs. wet); treatment chemicals;
challenges with FAC due to extensive cycling. Click Here to Register
March 24, 2016
Decisions NOx Control - Review of the issues and options for NOx control in coal
fired power, cement, steel, and waste to energy plants as well as mobile diesel
vehicles. Click Here to Register
April 7, 2016
Markets Power Generation Technologies - Future of USC coal in India, Vietnam and
Indonesia; natural gas prices; GHG regulations; nuclear costs; penetration for
wind and solar. Click Here to Register
April 21, 2016
Decisions Hot Gas Filtration - Issue and Option for particulate capture. in coal
fired power, cement, steel, and waste incineration. Click Here to Register
June 16, 2016
Decisions FGD and Acid Gas Separation - Issue and options for SO2 and other acid
gas separation from coal fired power, cement, steel, and waste incineration
plants. Click Here to Register
TBA
Markets Desalination - Thermal vs. Membrane; energy recovery, pump, valve,
compressor and chemicals options; power/desalination combinations.
TBA
Markets Oil, Gas, Refining - Supply and demand; impact on flow control and
treatment products; regional impacts e.g. subsea in North Atlantic vs. shale in
the US vs. Oil Sands in Canada.
TBA
Markets Food - Analysis of 12 separate applications within food and beverage
with analysis of valve, pump, compressor, filter, analyzer and chemical options;
impact of new technologies such as forward osmosis.
TBA
Markets Municipal Wastewater - Quality of pumps, valves, filters, and analyzers
in Chinese and Asian plants; new pollutant challenges; water purification for
reuse.
TBA
Markets Mobile Emissions - Reduction in CO, VOCs, and particulate in fuels,
oils, and air used in on and off road vehicles; impact of RDE and failure of NOx
traps and the crisis in Europe created by the focus on diesels.
Click here to Register for the Webinars
Sponsored Webinars allow suppliers to take advantage of all the valuable
information on their power point presentations. Click here for details
Hot Topic Hour Recordings
See and hear recordings of past Hot Topic Hours (Free for subscribers, $95.00
for non-subscribers)
• Chronological
Order Now!
Free Sponsored Webinars
• Albemarle - Cement MACT
• AMC Power
• Aquatech
• GE - Mercury Capture
• Honeywell
• NVISTA
• Midwesco - Bagfilter Performance Analyzer
• Neundorfer
• Pavilion
• Sick Maihak - Cement MACT
• Tekran Instruments - Cement MACT
You can register for our free McIlvaine Newsletters at:
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php?option=com_rsform&formId=5
Bob McIlvaine
President
847-784-0012 ext 112
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
www.mcilvainecompany.com