Major Changes in Oil and Gas Supply and Demand Outlook
The picture changes day by day in the oil and gas industry. Some recent
developments promise to alter many of the forecasts. The developments include:
·
Turmoil in the Middle East
·
Uncertain Russian gas supply
·
Regulations on flaring and completion
·
Chinese coal-to-gas program
·
Development of small scale LNG and gas-to-liquids plants.
·
Movement toward gas-fired vehicles
These new developments have been incorporated into the latest forecasts in
McIlvaine Oil, Gas, Shale and Refining Markets and Projects. (www.mcilvainecompany.com)
Turmoil in the Middle East:
The strife in Gaza, Iraq, Syria and other Middle East countries continue to
threaten the supply of oil and gas from the entire region.
EIA boosted the forecast for Brent crude to $109.55 for this year from $107.82.
Next year’s forecast was raised to $104.92 from $101.92. Price forecasts
were raised primarily because of the problems in Iraq.
Uncertain Russian Gas Supply:
Europe and China are both counting on substantial gas imports from Russia.
The downing of the Malaysian airlines plane caused oil prices to surge to
$3/barrel and reflected concerns about the future of Russian integration into
the world market.
Regulations on flaring and green completion:
Environmental concerns relative to the emission of methane, CO2 and
organic hazardous air pollutants are resulting in regulations which will change
the industry. North Dakota has a new rule to prohibit flaring. This
gas will be captured and converted to products adding $100 million/month to oil
and gas revenues in the State.
Chinese coal-to-gas program:
The various government forecasts of Chinese oil and gas supply and demand have
not taken into account the magnitude of Chinese plans to use syngas derived from
coal. The following chart compares the industry forecasts to those
compiled by McIlvaine.
Gas Use In China in 2025
(bcm) |
||
Source |
Industry Forecast |
McIlvaine Forecast |
Conventional extraction |
100 |
100 |
Shale gas extraction |
60 |
50 |
Pipeline imports |
70 |
50 |
LNG Imports |
80 |
40 |
Coal-to-gas including CBM and
UCG |
80 |
200 |
Total |
390 |
440 |
The Chinese government has decided that it is much more attractive to convert
coal in western and northern China into gas and pipe that gas across country.
The projects already underway plus those in the planning stages would result in
200 billion cubic meters per year (bcm) of domestically produced gas in 2025.
That would be twice as much as would be extracted conventionally and would equal
the combined conventional, shale and pipeline imports.
With the McIlvaine forecast based on the very recent announcements by the
Chinese government, long-term LNG imports would be lower by more than 40 bcm.
This has major implications for LNG exporters in the U.S. and Australia.
Development of small scale LNG and gas-to-liquids plants:
The lower demand for LNG in China will lead countries such as Australia to
divert a portion of the gas supply from large to small LNG plants. The iron
mining industry in Australia can take advantage of stranded shale gas supplies
near the mines and can convert this gas to LNG to operate the mining vehicles
and supply fuel for heating and power.
Movement toward gas-fired vehicles:
The movement toward LNG fired vehicles is accelerating It is lower
in cost and emissions. Demand is coming from the trucking, marine and rail
industries.
All these factors promise to materially affect the prices and consumption of oil
and gas products. For more information on Oil, Gas, Shale and Refining
Markets and Projects, click on:
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/markets/28-energy/471-n049.
Potential $200 Billion Market to Convert Simple Cycle Gas Turbines to Combined
Cycle Operation
There is the potential to upgrade existing gas turbine plants by converting them
to combined cycle operation. The cost will be $200 billion and will add
160,000 MW of additional capacity while reducing CO2 and other
pollutants per unit of power produced. This is the conclusion reached by
the McIlvaine Company in Gas Turbine and Combined Cycle Supplier Program.
(www.mcilvainecompany.com)
The United States has been upgrading existing power plants and reducing
emissions per unit of energy produced. CO2 emissions
from U.S. power plants in 2013 were 20 percent lower than 1997 levels, thanks to
the shift to CCGT technology. Reductions in NOx and SO2 emissions
were even greater, dropping 40 percent and 44 percent, respectively. This is due
to the installation of additional emission control equipment.
The GRF Tracy San Joaquin County conversion from 169 to 314 MW cost
approximately $232 million or 1372/kW based on the simple cycle rate. From
a different perspective, 145 additional MW will be generated at a cost of
$1600/kW. The average cost, worldwide, is forecast by McIlvaine at
$1000/kW of single cycle operation. There are presently 1.1 million MW of
installed gas turbine capacity in the world. There is the potential to add
combined cycle operation to 200,000 MW at an investment of $200 billion.
Individual upgrade projects are tracked in the program. Here are some examples:
The Rolling Hills Generating Facility in Vinton County, Ohio is proposing to
convert from a simple cycle. The current facility utilizes five natural
gas-fired combustion turbines. The conversion would require expansion and
redevelopment of the current generating facility, adding four heat recovery
steam generators and two steam generators to four of the combustion turbines.
One combustion turbine would remain as a simple cycle unit. The capacity will
expand from 860 MW to 1,414 MW. The proposed conversion is estimated to cost
$865 million ($1000/kW). Conversion of the plant would use all five of the
existing Siemens 501FD2 natural gas-fired combustion turbine generators.
The combustion turbine remaining in simple cycle configuration would have a
nominal output of 172 MW. Four of the five combustion turbines would be
coupled to Heat Recovery Steam Generators (HRSGs) and each would be equipped
with 550 million British thermal units per hour (MMBtu/hour) duct burners.
Each pair of gas combustion turbines would be combined with HRSGs and a steam
turbine generator set to create 2 x 1 power blocks, each with a nominal output
of approximately 621 MW. This company is affiliated with Tenaska Capital
Management LLC.
Tampa Electric Polk station is converting four units to combined cycle operation
and will increase generating capacity to 1400 MW. SCR will also be
installed on all units. The project started earlier this year and will be
completed in 2017.
The Empire District Electric Company (Empire District) owns and operates the
Riverton Power Station) located in Riverton, Kansas. It currently consists of
two boilers and four simple cycle combustion turbines. The combined cycle unit
will have a nominal capacity of 250 MW. This will require the addition of
a heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) with supplemental natural gas duct firing
(duct burners) and a condensing steam turbine generator. The project also
includes a cooling tower and an emergency diesel generator. An SCR will control
NOx and a CO catalyst will control carbon monoxide (CO) and volatile
organic compound (VOC).
Siemens has been awarded the contracts for the combined cycle conversion of two
simple cycle power plants in Argentina by Unión Temporal de Empresas (UTE) a
joint venture between Isolux Ingeniería and Inversora Andina Ibérica. The simple
cycle plants, Ensenada de Barragán and Brigadier López, were originally designed
and supplied by Siemens and are owned by Argentina's national energy company,
ENARSA. Siemens will supply the power island equipment to close the combined
cycles for these two plants, which will result in an additional 140 MW of power
for Brigadier López and 280 MW additional for Ensenada de Barragán with no
additional fuel consumption. The power plants are scheduled to achieve
commercial operation in the fall of 2014.
AES Dominicana has selected Tecnicas Reunidas of Spain to lead the project to
convert Dominican Power Partners’ (DPP) power generating asset to
combined-cycle. The conversion project will raise the current plant output
from 210 MW to 324 MW.
In Saudi Arabia the 1300 MW Riyadh City simple cycle plant is being converted to
combined cycle operation. Some units are already installed and the rest
will be operating by middle 2015. The upgrades include:
Kawasaki has converted a number of plants from simple to combined cycle.
These include:
Malaysia/Gelugor
GE Frame 9E x 2 converted to Combined Cycle
Myanmar /Ahlone
GEC-Alsthom Frame 6 x 3 converted to Combined Cycle
Myanmar/Hlawga
GEC-Alsthom Frame 6 x 3 converted to Combined Cycle
Myanmar/Tharkayta
Hitachi Frame 5 x 3 converted to Combined Cycle
Black & Veatch has executed the design and construction of several combined
cycle conversions
including a conversion to a 2 x 1 configuration in California involving “F”
class turbines and a conversion to a 3 x 1 configuration in Malaysia involving
“E” class turbines.
For more information on the
Gas Turbine and Combined Cycle Supplier Program, click on:
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/markets/28-energy/610-59ei.
Market for Water and Wastewater Treatment Chemicals in China Will Be $5.7
Billion Next Year
China will be the leading purchaser of water and wastewater treatment chemicals
in 2015. Purchases will exceed $5.7 billion according to the latest
forecast in McIlvaine Water and Wastewater Treatment Chemicals World Market.
Corrosion inhibitor purchases alone will exceed $1.4 billion. (www.mcilvainecompany.com)
($ Millions)
Subject |
2015 |
Total |
5,751
|
Activated Carbon |
151
|
Chelants |
175
|
Corrosion Inhibitors |
1,442
|
Defoamers |
121
|
Inorganic Flocculants |
607
|
Ion Exchange |
209
|
Odor Control |
250
|
Organic Flocculants |
800
|
Other |
258
|
Oxidizers & Biocides |
584
|
pH Adjusters |
270
|
Scale Inhibitors |
884
|
One of the big drivers in China is the coal sector.
Here is the Chinese coal production for last year compared to a very approximate
estimate of coal production in 2025:
Chinese Coal Consumption |
||
Coal Use |
Million Tons 2013 |
Million Tons 2025 |
Large electric power |
2,500 |
3,000 |
Residential |
50 |
0 |
Industry |
300 |
50 |
Heating |
100 |
50 |
Steel and other ( coke) |
400 |
700 |
Coal-to-gas including CBM and
UGG |
50 |
700 |
Coal-to-chemicals and fuel |
120 |
800 |
Total |
3,520 |
5,300 |
To put this forecast into perspective, the U.S. is the second largest coal
producer at 1 billion tons per year. China is building a number of
coal-to-chemicals and fuels plants which will use 1.5 times as much coal as the
entire U.S. power industry. The total coal consumption in 2025 will be
more than five times that of the U.S.
The Chinese program for conversion of coal to pipeline gas involves large
treatment chemical expenses. The coal is being mined in relative
arid northern and western regions. Zero liquid discharge will be a high
priority, so flocculants, scale inhibitors and pH inhibitor expenses will be
substantial. Corrosion control chemical expenditures will be very sizable.
The main conversion technology will utilize indirect gasification which creates
a number of corrosion control challenges.
For more information on Water and Wastewater Treatment Chemicals World
Market, click on:
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/markets/27-water/449-n026-water-and-wastewater-treatment-chemicals
Headlines for Utility E-Alert – July 18, 2014
UTILITY E-ALERT
#1183 – July 18, 2014
Table of Contents
COAL – US
COAL - WORLD
·
B&W awarded Contract for Dominican Republic Coal-fired Boiler Project
·
Lucky Cement plans 660 MW Coal-fired Power Plant in Karachi, Pakistan
GAS/OIL – US
GAS/OIL – WORLD
CO2
·
MHI receives Order for Combustion CO2 Capture System for EOR Project
in Texas
NUCLEAR
BUSINESS
·
Fuel Tech awarded Air Pollution Control Orders totaling $2.8 Million
·
Coal-fired Power Generators to spend $400 Billion on New Plants and Upgrades
Next Year
·
Asia will account for 43 Percent of the Air and Water Monitoring Market Next
Year
·
Precipitator Market to Level Off in 2015
·
Notice of Lodging of Proposed Modification of Amended Consent Decree under the
Clean Air Act (Federal Register)
·
LiqTech International, Inc. receives Order using its Silicon Carbide (SiC)
Membranes for the removal of Heavy Metals from Power Plant Wastewater
·
Myanmar Ministry announces more Coal-fired and Gas-fired Power Plants
HOT TOPIC HOUR
· Gas
Turbine Emission Control Webinar, July 17th raised challenges with CO
and Lower Quality Fuels
·
“Wet Calcium FGD” is the Hot Topic Hour on July 24, 2014
·
Upcoming Hot Topic Hours
For more information on the Utility Tracking System, click on:
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/databases/2-uncategorised/89-42ei
McIlvaine Hot Topic Hour Registration
On Thursday at 10:00 a.m. Central time, McIlvaine
hosts a 90 minute web meeting on important energy and pollution control
subjects. Power webinars are free for subscribers to either
Power Plant Air Quality Decisions or Utility Tracking System. The
cost is $300.00
for non-subscribers.
See below for information on upcoming Hot Topic Hours. We welcome your input
relative to suggested additions.
DATE |
SUBJECT |
|
|
||
|
July |
||||
|
31 |
Mercury Sorbent Options |
|||
|
August |
||||
|
7 |
MATS Timing and Technology
Options |
|||
|
14 |
Industrial Boiler and Cement
MACT Timing and
Compliance Options |
|||
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21 |
MEGA Symposium |
|||
|
28 |
Demineralization and
Degasification |
|||
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September |
||||
|
4 |
Hot Gas Filtration |
|||
|
11 |
Power Plant Pumps |
|||
|
18 |
Power Water Monitoring |
|||
|
25 |
Power Plant Water Treatment
Chemicals |
|||
Click here for the
Subscriber and
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Owner/Operator
Registration Form
Click here for the
Non-Subscribers
Registration Form
Click here for the Free
Hot Topic Hour Registration
Form
----------
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Bob McIlvaine
President
847-784-0012 ext 112
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
www.mcilvainecompany.com