Revised Pump and Valve Forecasts to Be Reviewed in Two Webinars
The markets for valves and pumps are being continually impacted by changing oil
prices, the Chinese slowdown, Iranian politics and technology changes such as
the lower hydraulic fracturing prices and improvements in coal to syngas.
McIlvaine is revising all pump and valve forecasts quarterly and will review
these changes in webinars explaining which factors were used in the new
forecasts and what uncertainties remain.
These 40-minute webinars will display the forecasts by region and industry and
provide a summary of the 50,000 forecasts in the full reports. The
webinars are free to subscribers to the reports (N019
Pumps World Market or
N028
Industrial Valves: World Market).
The cost to non-subscribers is $700 but the cost is deductible from purchase of
the report.
The Valve Market Forecast Changes webinar will be held on September 11 at
10:00 a.m. Central time. More
information
The Pump Forecast Changes webinar will be held on
September 25 at 10:00 a.m. Central time.
More information
Power Plant Pumps Decision Guide Webinar Slated For September 10
A webinar on September 10 at 10:00 a.m. Central time will cover the options and
issues regarding selection of fossil-fired power plant pumps. There is a
very ambitious goal to provide a website with the most comprehensive information
on power plant pumps. This is part of a whole knowledge system to provide
Alerts, Answers, Analysis, and Advancement in every aspect of power.
Owners and operators around the world have free access
to
44I Power
Plant Air Quality Decisions (Power
Plant Decisions Orchard) and
59D Gas
Turbine and Combined Cycle Decisions.
The Power Plant Pumps Decision Guide is one of the subsidiary websites in both
these knowledge systems.
This webinar will be focused on creating a Power Plant Pump Route Map and
Summary which will help decision makers navigate the website. The first inputs
to this Route Map are displayed at: http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/images/Pumps_Route_Map_Sept_10.pdf
There is still time for vendors to submit one or two slides for the display
deck. We intend to discuss issues during the session but due to the
90-minute limit, most of the time will be just spent on determining which types
of pumps are best suited for specific applications.
The website already exists but there is conflicting information. For
example, the introduction of ceramic impellers for FGD slurries needs to be more
closely examined. These more detailed subjects will be pursued with continuing
correspondence and future webinars.
If you want participate in the discussion and are an owner/operator or
subscriber to 44I, 59D, or
N019 Pumps
World Market,
there is no cost for participating in the actual discussion. Otherwise
there is a $300 participation fee. For more information on supplying data
or participating, contact Bob McIlvaine at
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com,
847-784-0012 ext. 112.
Click here to register:
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/component/content/article/2-uncategorised/976-webinar-registration
Oil Prices to Impact Pump Markets over the Next Four Years
The pump industry will grow by 17 percent from 2015 to 2019 at oil prices of
$80/barrel during the period. At $40/barrel, the growth will only be 3
percent. These are the latest forecasts in Pumps
World Markets
published by the McIlvaine Company. (www.mcilvainecompany.com)
There are a number of variables which will determine the market growth for
pumps. New insights are continually generated which justify changes in the
forecasts. The Iran nuclear agreement is just one example. The plunging
economy in China is another. However, the most significant development recently
is the plunge in oil prices to $40/barrel.
The industrial pump market is dominated by oil and gas which represents 24
percent of the present market. However water and wastewater, power,
refining, petrochemical and other industries account for 76 percent of the
market. The impact of future oil prices on the market can be best
predicted by estimating the impact on the individual segments.
Oil and gas can be divided into two segments. The aftermarket and routine
purchases for small projects represent two-thirds of the total or 16 percent of
the present total pump market. The longer term large project revenues
represent only 8 percent of the current market. If the price of oil were
to continue to remain at $40/barrel through 2019, revenues in this segment would
shrink over the period.
At $40/barrel oil the long range pump product revenue from the oil and gas large
project segment would shrink by 75 percent from 8 percent of the current market
in 2015 to an amount in 2019 which is equivalent to 2 percent of the 2015
market. On the other hand, the oil and gas aftermarket and market for
small projects would remain flat during the four year period. In fact, the
market for pumps for pipelines will be positively impacted as low cost oil and
gas needs to be moved to more places.
The petrochemical market will grow faster at $40 oil. Municipal water and
wastewater will be unaffected by the fluctuation in oil prices. Lower
prices will result in more gasoline being consumed and more oil being refined.
The power market will be impacted by greater use of gas turbine combined cycle
power plants but total revenues for pumps in the power market will not be
impacted greatly by fluctuating oil prices.
McIlvaine will continue to assess the likely changes in oil prices based on the
following factors:
·
The break-even cost for a new well
o
Hydraulic fracturing break-even point is $30 to $50/barrel equivalent based on
improved management practices and the extraction of more product from existing
wells.
o
Oil and tar sands projects break even at $65/barrel.
o
Subsea is more expensive.
·
New technology developments
o
Bechtel experience with coal seam gas to LNG in Australia indicates lower break-
even costs than subsea extraction.
o
China coal to syngas and chemicals could be an alternative which is more than
competitive at $40 oil. McIlvaine has recommended marrying the two stage (HCl/SO2)
scrubbing along with conventional hydrochloric acid leaching to extract rare
earths and generate byproduct revenue.
·
Demand
o
The slowdown in China could impact demand as could economic problems in Greece
and other countries.
o
Demand is a function of industrial activity. There is little equipment
needed to extract Saudi oil. On the other hand, over 2,000 companies rely
on the Alberta oil sands market for their revenues. The greater the industrial
activity the greater the oil demand.
·
Supply
o
Saudi Arabia could choose to restrict production. In many ways the
situation is analogous to the gold in Ft. Knox. You could sell it at any
price and generate positive cash flow. However it is a precious and finite
resource which is important to future generations.
o
Market driven companies will typically be reactive rather than proactive and
will only increase drilling after oil prices rise to a level to make drilling
profitable.
·
Political developments
o
Lifting the Iran embargo on oil exports.
o
Russian activities in the Ukraine and elsewhere.
o
Chinese efforts to manage the economy.
o
Uncertainties in North Korea, Greece and Venezuela.
·
Regulatory initiatives
o
Export restrictions.
o
Climate change regulations.
o
Pollution control requirements for hydraulic fracturing.
·
Traumatic events
o
Major oil spills.
o
Large meteorite impact, earthquake or major volcano eruption.
Some of these developments are more predictable than others. The low oil
prices leads to lower extraction activity which eventually leads to shortages
and higher prices. On the other hand, wars, oil spills and earthquakes
cannot be easily predicted. As a result there will be the need for
continuous changes in the forecasts to take into account the surprises.
Pumps World Markets,
click on:
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/component/content/article?id=75
Oil Prices to Impact Valve Markets over the Next Four Years
The market for industrial valves will grow by 16 percent from 2015 to 2019 at
oil prices of $80/barrel during the period. At $40/barrel, the growth will
only be 9 percent. These are the latest forecasts in
N028 Industrial Valves: World Market
published by the McIlvaine Company. (www.mcilvainecompany.com)
There are a number of variables which will determine the market growth for
valves. New insights are continually generated which justify changes in
the forecasts. The Iran nuclear agreement is just one example. The
plunging economy in China is another. However, the most significant
development recently is the plunge in oil prices to $40/barrel.
The industrial valve market is led by oil and gas which represents 15 percent of
the present market. However water and wastewater, power, refining,
petrochemical and other industries account for 85 percent of the market.
The impact of future oil prices on the market can be best predicted by
estimating the impact on the individual segments.
Oil and gas can be divided into two segments. The aftermarket and routine
purchases for small projects represent two-thirds of the total or 10 percent of
the present total pump market. The longer term large project revenues
represent only 5 percent of the current market. If the price of oil were
to continue to remain at $40/barrel through 2019, revenues in this segment would
shrink over the period.
The chart shows percentages of the present 2015 market for the year 2019.
At $40/barrel oil the long range valve product revenue from the oil and gas
large
project segment would shrink by 60 percent from 5 percent of the current market
in 2015 to an amount in 2019 which is equivalent to 2 percent of the 2015
market. On the other hand, the oil and gas aftermarket and market for
small projects would grow slightly during the four year period. In fact,
the market for pipeline valves will be positively impacted as low cost oil and
gas needs to be moved to more places.
The petrochemical market will grow faster at $40 oil. Municipal water and
wastewater will be unaffected by the fluctuation in oil prices. Lower
prices will result in more gasoline being consumed and more oil being refined.
The power market will be impacted by greater use of gas turbine combined cycle
power plants but total revenues for valves in the power industry will not be
impacted greatly by fluctuating oil prices.
McIlvaine will continue to assess the likely changes in oil prices based on the
following factors:
·
The break-even cost for a new well
o
Hydraulic fracturing break-even point is $30 to $50/barrel equivalent based on
improved management practices and the extraction of more product from existing
wells.
o
Oil and tar sands projects break even at $65/barrel.
o
Subsea is more expensive.
·
New technology developments
o
Bechtel experience with coal seam gas to LNG in Australia indicates lower break-
even costs than subsea extraction.
o
China coal to syngas and chemicals could be an alternative which is more than
competitive at $40 oil. McIlvaine has recommended marrying the two stage (HCl/SO2)
scrubbing along with conventional hydrochloric acid leaching to extract rare
earths and generate byproduct revenue.
·
Demand
o
The slowdown in China could impact demand as could economic problems in Greece
and other countries.
o
Demand is a function of industrial activity. There is little equipment
needed to extract Saudi oil. On the other hand, over 2,000 companies rely on the
Alberta oil sands market for their revenues. The greater the industrial activity
the greater the oil demand.
·
Supply
o
Saudi Arabia could choose to restrict production. In many ways the
situation is analogous to the gold in Ft. Knox. You could sell it at any
price and generate positive cash flow. However, it is a precious and finite
resource which is important to future generations.
o
Market driven companies will typically be reactive rather than proactive and
will only increase drilling after oil prices rise to a level to make drilling
profitable.
·
Political developments
o
Lifting the Iran embargo on oil exports.
o
Russian activities in the Ukraine and elsewhere.
o
Chinese efforts to manage the economy.
o
Uncertainties in North Korea, Greece and Venezuela.
·
Regulatory initiatives
o
Export restrictions.
o
Climate change regulations.
o
Pollution control requirements for hydraulic fracturing.
·
Traumatic events
o
Major oil spills.
o
Large meteorite impact, earthquake or major volcano eruption.
Some of these developments are more predictable than others. The low oil
prices lead to lower extraction activity which eventually leads to shortages and
higher prices. On the other hand, wars, oil spills and earthquakes cannot
be easily predicted. As a result, there will be the need for continuous
changes in the forecasts to take into account the surprises.
For more information on
N028 Industrial Valves: World Market,
click on:
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/markets/2-uncategorised/115-n028
Headlines for Utility E-Alert – August 21, 2015
UTILITY E-ALERT
#1237– August 21, 2015
Table of Contents
COAL – US
§
Ameren Missouri says Coal to remain Large Part of Power Generation Mix
COAL – WORLD
§
Sindh Engro says Coal-fired Power Generation to start by 2018
§
Longannet in Fife Coal-fired Power Plant to close March of 2016
§
Prophecy provides Updates on its Chandgana Coal-fired Power Plant and Ulaan Ovoo
Mining Project in Mongolia
§
TEPCO moving forward with 2 x 500 MW IGCC Facilities in Fukishima Prefecture
§
ECUST-ICCT provides Gasification Technology and is actively developing Novel
Technologies
GAS/OIL – US
§
Rockland
prepares
for negotiations on $200
Million
Natural
Gas
Project
§
Connecticut DEEP schedules Hearing to approve Air Permits for CPV Towantic
Energy
§
By 2030 56 Percent of Vietnamese Electrical Capacity will be Coal
GAS/OIL
– WORLD
§
KPA Unicon to deliver a Power Boiler to South African Steel Mill
NUCLEAR
§
Watts Bar Unit 2 is Substantially Complete; TVA Requests Issuance of License
§
BWXT Subsidiary awarded Design and Manufacturing Contracts for HPR1000 Nuclear
Power Plant in Guangxi, China
§
Approval by Georgia Public Service Commission of $169 Million Capital and
Construction Costs submitted as part of 12th Vogtle Construction
Monitoring Report
§
Finnish Firm contracted for Hanhikivi Nuclear Project
BUSINESS
§
Engie plans over $1 Billion Sale of Asian Coal-fired Power Plants
§
Eagle Mountain signs Strategic Participation Agreement
§
Fuel Tech awarded Air Pollution Control Orders Totaling $7.7 Million
§
NOx Control Market leveling off but at a High Level
§
Investment in Coal-Fired Power Plants will exceed Other Energy Sectors in 2016
HOT TOPIC HOUR
§
Total Solutions Hot Topic Hour (August 20) confirms the Trend toward Greater
Outsourcing
§
Upcoming Hot Topic Hours
For more information on the Utility Tracking System, click on:
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/databases/2-uncategorised/89-42ei
McIlvaine Hot Topic Hours and Recordings
McIlvaine webinars offer the opportunity to view the latest presentations and
join discussions while sitting at your desk. Hot Topic Hours cater to the end
users as well as suppliers while the Market Updates cater to the suppliers and
investors. Since McIlvaine records and provides streaming media
access to these webinars there is a treasure trove of value only a click away.
McIlvaine webinars are free to certain McIlvaine service subscribers.
There is a charge for others. Hot Topic Hours are free to owner/operators.
Sponsored webinars provide insights to particular products and services.
They are free. Recordings can be immediately viewed from the list provided
below.
DATE |
UPCOMING HOT
TOPIC HOUR |
UPCOMING MARKET
UPDATES |
Sept. 10, 2015 |
Power Plant Pumps
A decision guide for pump
selection for intake, |
|
Sept. 11, 2015 |
Valve Market Forecast Changes |
|
Sept. 24, 2015 |
Power Plant Water Monitoring |
|
Sept. 25, 2015 |
Pump Market Forecast Changes |
|
October 1, 2015 |
Power Plant Water Treatment
Chemicals |
|
October 2, 2015 |
Fabric Filter Market Forecast
Changes |
|
October 22, 2015 |
Precipitator Improvements |
|
November 12, 2015 |
Dry Scrubbing |
|
December 3, 2015 |
NOx Reduction |
|
Click here to register:
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/component/content/article/2-uncategorised/976-webinar-registration
----------
You can register for our free McIlvaine Newsletters at:
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php?option=com_rsform&formId=5
Bob McIlvaine
President
847-784-0012 ext 112
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
www.mcilvainecompany.com