WELCOME
Weekly selected highlights in flow control, treatment and combustion from the
many McIlvaine publications.
• Overview
• FGD Purchases of $19 billion are Being Determined by Only a Few Thousand
People
• Pharmaceutical Membrane Cartridge Market to Exceed $1.2 billion Next Year
Overview
Our IIoT webinars have been recorded and offer free market information on each
industry. Our webinar tomorrow on renewables has forecasts for wind, solar,
biomass, geothermal and hydro plus specific opportunities at BHE. Our pulp and
paper, pharmaceutical, chemical and other recent webinars provided rankings for
the top purchasers. The nuclear webinar on October 11 will provide insights on
the combust, flow, and treat purchases of the major nuclear power generators. To
register for our webinars click on:
Weekly IIoT Webinars
Bob Mcilvaine will be speaking at the Dry Scrubber Users Association conference
on the 20th and will be roaming the exhibit Hall at WEFTEC the week of the 30th.
He would welcome the chance to talk to you.
As you can see from the following analyses, Mcilvaine is providing forecasts for
the range of combust, flow, and treat products for the 550 largest operators
(end users) but also for the 400 largest OEM/EPC's. In the new IIoT world high
performance products will be purchased or the decisions made about them by
relatively few people. The mass of data on the performance of every valve, pump,
filter, and fan will be in the hands of the corporate people. They will then be
very influential and knowledgeable.
By identifying the experts making these decisions it is then desirable to link
them up with the experts in your organization. High performance products by
definition are purchased based on total cost of ownership analyses. The cloud is
going to be generating continuous TCO analyses of every product. This being the
case some claims made by non-experts will not be effective. So, sales success in
the future will be by leveraging your lower total cost of ownership and
utilizing your experts to make the case.
FGD Purchases of $19 billion are Being Determined by Only a Few Thousand People
FGD consumables include lime, limestone, water treatment chemicals, filtration
cartridges and belts, membranes, dust bags, seals, balls for ball mills, general
performance analyzers and similar items. Minor replacements include nozzles,
valves, general performance pumps, and mist eliminators. Repairs are needed for
high performance pumps, dampers, high performance valves, scrubber linings,
continuous emissions monitoring systems, fans and high-performance analyzers.
Many FGD systems in the U.S., Japan and Europe were installed in the 1980s.
These systems are being updated with extensive automation and in some cases new
scrubber vessels. New pumps and fans are also being installed. In part this is
due to end of life issues but often upgrades are required to meet tougher
regulations.
The yearly FGD capacity additions have peaked both quantitatively and in terms
of percent increases. In the 1980s the new yearly additions were 20,000 MW per
year but in the early 1980s this represented as much as 20 percent of the
installed capacity. At the peak in 2005 the yearly additions were 90,000 MW but
only represented 10 percent of the total installed capacity. Now orders for new
systems have dropped to 60,000 MW per year but this represents only 4 percent of
the installed capacity.
What this means is a big change in the ratio between markets for new systems and
the purchases for existing systems. The market for new systems in 2018 will only
be $3 billion while the purchases for existing systems will be $16 billion. Most
of the new purchases will be in a few Asian countries. The total $19 billion
market will be dominated by relatively few end users and suppliers according to
the latest forecast in N027 FGD Market and Strategies.
FGD System, Component, Consumables and Repair Purchases in 2018
Company Country Rank % of Total Coal-fired FGD Purchases in 2018 FGD Purchases
($ millions)
AEP U.S. 9 1.1 209
BWE U.S. 14 0.6 114
Datang China 3 7 1,330
Duke U.S. 10 1 190
Enel Italy 13 1 190
Eskom South Africa 5 6 1,140
Guodian China 2 7.5 1,425
Huaneng China 1 9 1,710
Huadian China 6 6 1,140
J-Power Japan 16 0.5 95
National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC) India 4 7 1,330
NRG U.S. 11 1 190
Shenhua China 7 4.5 855
Southern U.S. 12 1 190
Uniper Germany 15 0.6 114
Vietnam Power (EVN) Vietnam 8 2 380
Sub Total 55.8 10,602
Other 44.2 8,398
TOTAL 19,000
Many of the decisions are increasingly being made by OEMS, and EPCs. Let's take
the example of flow control components such as pumps, valves, fans, and dampers.
For new systems the end user will not often directly purchase these components.
Large FGD system suppliers will typically purchase or specify the specific brand
and product.
FGD system suppliers are making a big effort to serve their existing customers
with O&M services which include component replacement. In the future third party
O&M will become commonplace as explained in N031 Industrial IoT and Remote O&M.
The remote monitoring of every valve, pump, fan and damper will generate unique
knowledge for the corporate utility personnel and OEMs. As a result, a few
thousand people in 31 corporations will make more than 70 percent of the
purchase decisions for high performance FGD components.
Decision Makers for High Performance FGD Components Percent
Top 16 operators - Direct 40
Top 16 EPCs and OEMs for the top 16 operators 12
Smaller EPCS for top 16 operators 3.8
Top 16 operators sub total 55.8
Top 16 EPC's for smaller operators 15
Top 31 sub total 70.8
Purchases by smaller EPCs for smaller operators 9
Smaller operators - Direct 20.2
Total 100
The market report provides forecasted purchases by each of the large operators
and OEMS. Detailed profiles of the FGD OEMS are also provided. Detailed profiles
of the operators are found in 42EI Utility Tracking System which also tracks
individual projects on a weekly basis.
For more information click on the markets click on N027 FGD Market and
Strategies or contact Bob McIlvaine at rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
847-784-0012 ext. 112.
Pharmaceutical Membrane Cartridge Market to Exceed $1.2 billion Next Year
Membrane cartridges are used in separation processes in the pharmaceutical
industry. They are also used to purify water for use in products. A third use is
the removal of contaminants from wastewater. According to the latest forecast in
Cartridge Filters: World Market the pharmaceutical industry will spend $1.2
billion on cartridges in 2018.
Pharmaceutical Membrane Cartridge Purchases
$ millions
World Region 2018
Total 1,198
Africa 13
CIS 7
East Asia 308
Eastern Europe 15
Middle East 33
NAFTA 418
South & Central America 53
West Asia 47
Western Europe 304
NAFTA will continue to be the leading consumer although East Asia is showing the
most quantitative growth. West Asia and specifically India is showing the
largest percentage growth.
Membrane cartridges are in the high-performance category. This means that they
are purchased more based on performance and less on price. As a result, a few
thousand people at end users, EPCs, and system supplier companies are making
most of the purchase decisions. The top three pharmaceutical companies are
spending more than $130 million/yr. for these cartridges.
Ranking Company 2020 Membrane
Cartridge
Purchases
$ millions Market Share
%
1 Pfizer 49 4.40
2 Merck 34 3.00
3 Roche 37 3.29
4 Sanofi 33 2.99
5 Johnson & Johnson 31 2.79
6 Novartis 30 2.71
7 AbbVie 24 2.14
8 Gilead 23 2.04
9 AstraZeneca 22 1.92
10 Amgen 22 1.92
11 GlaxoSmithKline 21 1.88
12 Takeda 19 1.70
13 Teva 17 1.53
This report provides forecasts for 80 countries in each industry for four types
of cartridges. It also provides estimated purchases by 550 end users and 400
EPC's, and system suppliers.
For more information click on N024 Cartridge Filters: World Market
Bob McIlvaine can answer questions and can be reached at
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com 847-784-0012 ext. 112.