Important Discussion Of Hot Gas Filtration Options Will Be Discussed In Hot Topic Hour Thursday, April 2 at 10 a.m.   (See Information Below)

Multibillion Dollar Hot Gas Filtration Market will be Technology Driven

The large market for hot gas filters is growing and changing.  The drivers are:

·       More stringent air emission limits on particulate

·       Desirability to integrate filtration with DeNO_x and acid gas capture

·       Development of new systems to remove dust at high temperature

·       Development of systems to remove multiple pollutants

·       Opportunities to improve efficiency of processes and reduce greenhouse gases

There are a number of ways to remove dust from air.  Dry precipitators presently remove more dust than all the other technologies combined.  On the other hand, the market share for dry precipitators has dropped from 90 percent decades ago to closer to 50 percent now.  In the future, the dry precipitator share will drop even farther as power plants switch to fabric filters.

P = primary, S = supplementary (yellow = most used blue = most promising)

The industry has responded to these drivers with a range of new technologies. It is, therefore, going to be a challenge for the operator to select the best option for his specific situation. Here are some of the new choices:

·       Membranes and laminates with microfibers to achieve higher efficiency at equivalent pressure drop.

·       Filter media to best deal with the large load increases caused by direct sorbent injection of activated carbon or lime.

·       Filter media to cope with sulfuric acid condensate as coal-fired boilers burning high sulfur coal are utilizing filters.

·       Compact pleated filters to fit inside the shell of a precipitator.

·       Filters to remove organics as well as dust.

·       Filters to reduce NO_x as well as capture dust.

·       Filters to operate at 850^oF.

·       Filters to operate at 500^oF.

Here are some of the developments in specific industries:

Coal-fired power:  DSI, catalytic filters, removal of dust prior to air preheater, insertion of filter bags in existing precipitators, membranes for higher efficiency, consideration of a venturi scrubber/wet precipitator option instead of DSI fabric filter;  SBS injection and lowering air heater temperature to where a bag with 250^oF limits could be used.

Waste-to-Energy:  Mercury and acid gas capture along with dust, elimination of the first-stage filter with a system to produce salable hydrochloric acid and valuable metals.

Cement:  Coping with hazardous waste and sewage sludge as well as kiln dust, separate loop for mercury removal and capture, options to extract phosphorous from clinker kiln dust.

Steel:  Capturing fugitive dust, replacing precipitators with fabric filters, dealing with sinter plant variables.

Sewage Sludge:  Improving scrubber dust removal and final capture in WESP.

Coal Gasification:  Ceramic filter with improved performance, venturi scrubber and production of rare earths and 30 percent hydrochloric acid.

Natural gas processing:  Coalescing filters for droplet removal, ionic liquid impregnated pellets for mercury removal, filters to remove fines leaving carbon bed filters.

Biomass firing:  Filters to deal with sticky contaminants released by combustion.

Glass Furnaces:  Use of the catalytic filter with DSI injection using high reactivity lime.

Gas turbine intake:  Filters to resist the salts and moisture of offshore turbine locations, HEPA efficiency to reduce turbine maintenance, membranes vs. nanofiber laminates, static vs. pulsed.

Filter selection decision guides in each industry will be discussed in a Hot Gas Filtration Hot Topic Hour slated for April 21, 2016.

Click Here to Register

$14 Trillion to be spent on Power Plant Equipment and Repairs

in the Next 25 Years

Electricity production will be up 100 percent by 2040. This will require an investment of $14 trillion in new hardware and repair parts for existing equipment and systems. Coal-fired generation will grow by 10 percent. One would, therefore, expect that investment in coal-fired power generation would be less than in other technologies. However, when you take into account repair and upgrades, coal-fired power will require more in investment than any of the alternatives.

World coal powered generation capacity is 2.2 million MW today and is slated to rise by only 10 percent or only 200,000 MW during the next 25 years. The investment needed to keep an old power plant running from age 50 to age 75 and to be upgraded to the likely emission limits, will be nearly equal to the $2 million/MW cost of a new power plant over a 25 year period. This means that $4.4 trillion will need to be invested in coal-fired power. Much of that will be in Asia where many new power plants will be built. Net capacity will drop in Europe and the U.S. This does not mean that the two areas will not be spending money on coal-fired power plants. The U.S. moratorium on new coal-fired power plants and the necessity to maintain 200,000 MW of coal-fired capacity means that the U.S. will have to spend $400 billion just to keep the old power plants running and meet increasingly stringent environmental standards.

Nuclear capacity is slated to increase from 392 GW in 2013 to more than 620 GW in 2040. But its share of global power generation will rise just one percentage point to 12 percent, because almost 200 reactors of the 434 operational at the end of 2013 will be retired, they will need to be offset by new power plants. Total investment will exceed $2 trillion over the next 25 years.

The gas turbine combined cycle power generation market will grow by more than 300 GW to over 2 million GW by 2040. Replacements, upgrades and retirements all result in a net capital investment of $2.2 trillion.

Biomass capacity will be 300 GW in 2040. Wind capacity will be 1300 GW and solar 1000 GW.

By 2040 Chinese energy production will be twice that of the U.S. but per capital consumption will still be only half that of the U.S. The gas turbine market in China will be bolstered by the Chinese coal-to-gas program which will deliver gasified coal to turbine generators throughout the country.

India today is home to one-sixth of the world’s population and is its third-largest economy, but accounts for only 6 percent of global energy. Demand for coal in power generation and industry will surge increasing the share of coal to almost half of the energy mix and making India the largest source of growth in global coal use. By 2040, Asia is projected to account for 80 percent of coal consumed globally. Coal will remain the backbone of the power system in many countries.

Many components of coal and gas turbine generating plants need to be replaced frequently. Catalyst for a coal-fired power plant is replaced every 3-5 years and every 10 years for a gas turbine power plant. Boiler feedwater valves will be replaced more frequently in a gas turbine power plant due to the constant cycling and phenomena such as Flow Accelerated Corrosion (FAC). Slurry pumps, ball mills, fans and air pre-heaters in coal-fired power plants are in periodic need of replacement parts. Both coal and gas turbine operators are now more likely to use zero liquid discharge (ZLD) systems which are high maintenance systems.

Coal-fired power plants are switching from electrostatic precipitators to fabric filters. This results in

biannual purchases of new bags. Gas turbine plants now favor high efficiency inlet filters which are more expensive and need more frequent replacement than the low efficiency alternative.

The power plant generation market was reviewed in a McIlvaine Hot Topic Hour on April 7.

McIlvaine publishes market reports with detailed forecasts of the power market. They include:

59EI Gas Turbine and Combined Cycle Supplier Program

N043 Fossil and Nuclear Power Generation: World Analysis and Forecast 

42EI Utility Tracking System

$70 Billion Filter Market in 2016

Filter revenues for mobile, medical, residential/commercial and industrial applications will exceed $70 billion in 2016. No one company has more than 5 percent of the total market. These are the conclusions reached by the McIlvaine Company by aggregating data in a number of its reports.

Revenues are displayed in segments representing $ millions: 0 – 250, 250 – 700, 700 – 1400,  1400 and above

The largest market segment is stationary industrial liquid cartridges with a 2016 market of $17 billion. This is followed by the mobile liquid cartridge market. Mobile air filters, hydraulic and compressed air filters, cross-flow filtration, liquid macrofiltration, dust collection, HVAC filters, and coalescing filters are the remaining product segments.

A small but rapidly growing market is filtration of diesel exhaust fluid (DEF). Urea/water injected into engines freezes at relatively high temperatures, so filters are needed to prevent frozen particles from reaching the engine.

Not a single company is in the top five in each category. Those in the residential segment tend not to be in mobile. Most of the companies are U.S. based.

Donaldson is a major player in mobile and industrial air filtration. Their sales of liquid filtration products primarily for diesel engines have grown recently at double-digit rates. The diesel liquid filter sales are presently $500 million. The company is not involved with commercial/residential filtration in a significant way.

Clarcor sales of engine and other mobile filters are $600 million per year. Process liquid filter sales are $350 million per year while industrial air filter sales are $475 million. It is not a player in medical and residential applications.

Mann & Hummel has made both industrial and mobile acquisitions but its purchase of Wix with $900 million of revenue in the mobile sector was the largest purchase.

Daikin sales in 2015 were ¥2 trillion. With the acquisition of Flanders filter sales are ¥100 billion or $890 million.

Twenty-two percent of Parker Hannifin sales of $11 billion are in filtration and engineered materials. Its strengths are mobile and industrial.

More details on the filter market are found at:

N064 Air/Gas/Water/Fluid Treatment and Control: World Market

N021 World Fabric Filter and Element Market

N006 Liquid Filtration and Media World Markets

N024 Cartridge Filters: World Market

N020 RO, UF, MF World Market

McIlvaine also provides custom research and complete programs:  Detailed Forecasting of Markets, Prospects and Projects

Flow Control and Treatment Companies will benefit from a

Digital Crystal Ball

The digital age has created the ability to make fortune telling a reality. The real life version of a crystal ball is the wealth of information available to predict markets, projects and identify decision makers. This information can be used to change the way flow control and treatment products are marketed.

Long range purchasing plans can be determined by an organized analysis of information which can be obtained directly from available documents or through individuals who have specific insights.

The local salesman can make a call on a municipal wastewater treatment plant but would be unlikely to provide the same value gained from the directors meeting minutes which outline the failure of the competitor’s equipment and his proposal to fix it.

The power plant modification permit request which details the cost and performance of various options provides the needed insights on product and timing for a potential supplier.

One way suppliers take advantage of the availability of information is to purchase sales leads.  Typically the company spends lots of money on these leads and not on market research.  In one sense, the leads are the market research.  In fact, published studies purport to link the number of sales leads to the size of future markets.

This approach has a number of undesirable aspects:

1.     The large expenditure for sales leads draws funds away from critical market research.

2.     Sales leads are not qualified.  High margins and order conversion result from picking and choosing projects.

3.     Since the sales lead is also being viewed by the competitors, there will be pricing pressure and lower success rates.

4.     The timing of sales leads is often right if you are selling a commodity, but if you are selling based on your product differentiation, you are too late.

5.     Many companies have distributors and representatives who are being paid to uncover leads.  Sales lead expense is justified based on evaluating distributor performance rather than on boosting sales.

If you are selling a commodity, product and price is the basis of success then the sales lead route is probably still the best option. But, if you sell a product based on lowest cost of ownership and not initial price, then you should consider a whole new route using the digital crystal ball.

Detailed Forecasting of Markets, Prospects and Projects

is your digital crystal ball because:

1.     Forecasts can be provided for the precise product at the State and province level.

2.     Project alerts provide the time to convince the customer to consider total cost of ownership and to issue bid specifications accordingly.

3.     The large end users, OEMs, and AEs are identified.  Since they purchase more than 50 percent of the flow control and treatment equipment, the focus on them is critical.

4.     The opportunity to connect with the end user through white papers and webinars improves the margin and success potential.

5.     The ability to demonstrate lowest cost of ownership is the secret to success in the global market.

For more information on this program contact Bob McIlvaine 847 784 0012 ext. 112 rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com

Here are Some Headlines from the Utility E-Alert – April 8, 2016

UTILITY E-ALERT

#1267 – April 8, 2016

COAL – US

• Hearing underway on OG&E Application for Coal Scrubbers at Sooner Power Plant
• PacifiCorp expects to close Naughton Unit 3 at End of 2017

COAL – WORLD

• Public Forum held by EPA and Volta River Authority on Coal-fired Power Plant at Ekumfi, Ghana

§  Two Turbines for Coal-fired Power Plant in Punta Catalina, Bina, Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic

The 41F Utility E-Alert is issued weekly and covers the coal-fired projects, regulations and other information important to the suppliers. It is $950/yr. but is included in the $3020 42EI Utility Tracking System which has data on every plant and project plus networking directories and many other features.

Bob McIlvaine

President
847 784 0012 ext. 112

rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com

www.mcilvainecompany.com