Asian Ultrapure Water System Sales to Exceed $3 Billion By 2016
Double-digit annual growth will result in an ultrapure water system and
consumables market in Asia which will exceed $3 billion /yr by 2016. This is the
prediction in Ultrapure Water: World Market published by the McIlvaine Company.
(www.mcilvainecompany.com)
Asian growth will exceed the other continents in the following applications:
• Coal-fired Power
• Nuclear Power
• Photovoltaic
• Flat Panel Displays
• Memory
• Semiconductors
• Pharmaceuticals
• Bottled Drinks
Asia will spend more for coal-fired ultrapure water systems than ROW combined.
China is building ultra supercritical boilers which require the most expensive
ultrapure water systems. India, Indonesia and other countries in the region are
also planning large increases in coal-fired power generation.
Asia is the one region which has significant nuclear activity. Nearly all the
photovoltaic manufacturing is taking place in Asia. The same is true for memory
and flat panel displays. Taiwan has become the leading semiconductor
manufacturer with China in pursuit. All these industries require ultrapure water
at each processing step to remove the etching solutions and other chemicals used
to form the lines and shapes.
The one area where Asia has not gained much ground is proprietary
pharmaceuticals. However, Asia is the selected location for generic
pharmaceutical manufacture. International drug companies are building very
substantial research and production facilities in China and India. The growth in
generics is higher than proprietary pharmaceuticals.
Asia is also expanding its manufacture of bottled water and other drinks where
the source water has to be purified beyond the level of normal drinking water.
This application does not require ultrapure water at the highest level. This is
defined as water that has 18 Megohm-cm or greater specific resistance, with
other attributes such as bacterial count, TOC (total organic carbon), pyrogen
and/or endotoxin, etc. However, bottled water producers are using purification
and monitoring techniques required by the traditional ultrapure water users.
For more information on Ultrapure Water: World Market, click on:
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/markets/27-water/447-n029-ultrapure-water-world-markets
The Future of Oil, Gas and Coal Dependent on Perception and Competition
Gas-to-liquids plants can cost up to $15 billion. Coal-to-liquids plants cost
even more. Investments in these plants is highly dependent on the perceived
demand. This factor, in turn, is a function of attractiveness of alternatives
such as wind, solar, electrical energy storage, tar sands, coal bed methane,
underground coal gasification, shale gas, shale oil, oil shale, small modular
nuclear, small scale LNG, advanced coal-fired power plants, etc. All these
alternatives are continually assessed in two publications: Oil, Gas, Shale and
Refining Markets and Projects and Fossil and Nuclear Power Generation: World
Analysis and Forecast published by the McIlvaine Company.
(www.mcilvainecompany.com)
The biggest variable in the mix among these alternatives is coal conversion. The
proven coal reserves (defined as presently known and economically minable) is
860 billion tons. This quantity would supply the world at present consumption
levels for another 100 years. But coal has a much bigger potential than just
this identified resource. Consider that there is one trillion tons of coal under
the North Sea. Billions of dollars are being invested in underground
gasification technology to inject steam and oxygen and extract gas. CO2
generated in the process would be used to increase yield of shrinking North Sea
oil reservoirs.
China is well underway with a program to convert coal to gas, fuels and
chemicals at a rate equal to the entire U.S. shale gas program. If the projects
in the planning stage are implemented, China will utilize 20 percent of the
world’s annual coal consumption just to make gas and liquid products.
The ultimate mix between all these energy sources will be be determined by
perception and competition. In a chess game, the winner does a better job of
perceiving the moves of the loser. Among the losers to date are owners of LNG
regasification terminals in the U.S. They did not perceive the moves of shale
gas extraction companies. However, if they convert these terminals to export LNG
and build others to do so, then power plants which are relying on large
quantities of cheap gas will be the losers. So both the quality of the
competition and the perception of the opponent are factors in success. Some of
the important inputs include:
• The differential price between diesel and LNG is a critical market factor.
• Crude represents 65 percent of final fuel price.
• The disparity between oil and gas prices on an equivalent Btu basis is a
function of access.
• Gas is not economically transported overseas except as LNG, whereas oil is
economically transferred.
• Even if the price of oil drops, the market for gas is not impacted if gas
prices also drop proportionately.
• Until the U.S. has the capability to sell large quantities of LNG offshore,
the price disparity will continue.
• Investors and gas producers are expecting gas in the U.S. to remain at $5/MMBtu.
• China expects to make gas from coal at less than $5/MMBtu.
• Shale gas operators are expected to keep expanding as long as oil is above
$70/bbl.
• Oil companies such as Chevron are bullish on increased oil and gas demand and
are continuing with high levels of investment.
• Saudi Arabia is able to increase or decrease output to maintain price levels.
Many other producers need price levels above $90 barrel to keep their economies
healthy.
• The oil reserves of Middle East producers are less than 50 years.
• The Saudi production cost is only $6/bbl.
• The Saudi oil value is much higher than $100/barrel because it is a resource
which is dwindling at 4 percent per year.
• The result is that the Saudi supply will be adjusted to balance long term
value and short term needs.
• Stranded gas and other sources of LNG where the acquisition price of the gas
is negative will be unaffected by oil fluctuations between $80-110 bbl.
• Safety perceptions of nuclear energy vary widely from country to country.
• Environmental perceptions including climate change also vary widely between
the developed and developing economies.
All these factors will continue to make projections about the production from
each of these resources very speculative.
For more information on Oil, Gas, Shale and Refining Markets and Projects, click
on: http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/markets/28-energy/471-n049.
For more information on Fossil and Nuclear Power Generation: World Analysis and
Forecast, click on:
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/markets/2-uncategorised/113-n043.
Headlines for Utility E-Alert –October 17, 2014
UTILITY E-ALERT
Table of Contents
COAL – US
Xcel sets April for end of Coal burning at Burnsville Power Plant
COAL – WORLD
Marubeni to develop 1,800–2,000 MW Coal-fired Power Plant in Myanmar
Samsung to develop $2.5 Billion Thermal Power Plant in Central Vietnam
GAS/OIL – US
Wärtsilä to supply 112 MW Peaking Power Plant in North Dakota
New MD Power Plant provides Sustainable Power to DEC Members
GAS/OIL – WORLD
1MDB awarded contract for 2,000 MW Malacca Power Plant
GE to support Iraq’s 750 MW Combined Cycle Power Plant Project
Parsons Brinckerhoff /WBHO named EPC Contractor for Mozambique Gas-fired Power
Project
AES Dominicana Power Plant conversion to Combined Cycle
Wärtsilä to supply a 139 MW Flexicycle Power Plant in Mexico
CO2
Exelon, CB&I, 8 Rivers develop Zero Emission Natural Gas-fired Power Project
NUCLEAR
Canada unveils New Regulations to enhance Nuclear Emergency Management
BUSINESS
AES signs Agreement to sell Interest in Turkish Assets for $125 Million
Duke Energy Progress seeks FERC approval to buy Generation Assets in North
Carolina
URS Corporation named Exclusive Licensee for Linde Group’s NOx Removal
Technology for North America Power Industry
Mitsui expands Astoria IPP stake
Two Pipeline Projects competing for Dunkirk Power Plant in New York
Why More Coal is going to Increase the Gas Turbine Market
HOT TOPIC HOUR
“Dry Scrubbing” will be the Hot Topic Hour on October 23, 2014
“Power Plant Cooling Decisions” is Hot Topic Hour November 13
Upcoming Hot Topic Hours
For more information on the Utility Tracking System, click on:
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/databases/2-uncategorised/89-42ei.
McIlvaine Hot Topic Hour Registration
On Thursday at 10:00 a.m. Central time, McIlvaine hosts a 90 minute web meeting
on important energy and pollution control subjects. Power webinars are free for
subscribers to either Power Plant Air Quality Decisions or Utility Tracking
System. The cost is $300.00 for non-subscribers.
See below for information on upcoming Hot Topic Hours. We welcome your input
relative to suggested additions.
DATE SUBJECT
23 Dry Scrubbing
November
6 Coal-fired Power Plant NOx Reduction Innovations
13 Power Plant Cooling
December
18 Boiler Feedwater Treatment
Click here for the Subscriber and Power Plant Owner/Operator Registration Form
Click here for the Non-Subscribers Registration Form
Click here for the Free Hot Topic Hour Registration Form
----------
You can register for our free McIlvaine Newsletters at:
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php?option=com_rsform&formId=5
Bob McIlvaine
President
847-784-0012 ext 112
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
www.mcilvainecompany.com