March 2017 - McIlvaine Insights 5

The Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) will radically change the pump routes to market and pump revenues. With a projected growth rate of 13 percent IIoT will be responsible for pump revenues of $40 billion by 2030. The webinar on Thursday, March 9 will explore this opportunity and provide recommended strategies.

If general purpose pumps are the foot soldiers of IIoT, then high performance pumps belong in the armored division. Their performance is much more critical to the outcome of the battle to improve plant performance. IIoT promises to revolutionize industry but only if it is accompanied by IIoW (Industrial Internet of Wisdom). Decisive classification of high performance pump applications, designs, and materials is critical to IIoT success.

IIoT will generate continuous performance and condition information about each pump. A large plant could have 5000 pumps. In order to determine which pumps are working better than others it is necessary to divide the applications and pump types into meaningful groups. One can then compare the performance of pumps from different manufacturers in the defined group. McIlvaine has IIoW programs to empower IIoT.

The market share for a specific supplier will be shaped by not only the quality of his smart high performance pump but his willingness to assume a greater role. At the very least he should develop his own remote monitoring center and provide analytics and wisdom.

At the very minimum the pump supplier has to design his pump for smart sensing. He also should supply the sensors. At level one he can sell to suppliers of processes. But by teaming up with Honeywell, Rockwell, ABB, Schneider Electric, Yokogawa or other stack 2 & 3 providers, the pump supplier can play a more important role. The insights he will receive will allow him to improve his products for specific applications.

For pump manufacturers, the IIoT opportunity is transformational. The path forward is uncertain and will likely be continually revised. Pump suppliers should further their IIoW efforts to make pumps smarter and should expand into remote communications of this intelligence. They also should take advantage of the IIoW potential. To learn more about this we invite you to join us at 10:00 AM CST on Thursday, March 9. To register click on Weekly IIoT Webinars

The industrial internet of things (IIoT) combined with remote operations and maintenance promise to make the reduction of SO₂ from power plants much more cost effective. Flue gas desulfurization systems are costly to operate. The reagent consumption can be as high as 4 percent of the total coal consumption. The fans and pumps consume several percent of the plant's electrical output. Large wastewater treatment systems separate gypsum, flyash and toxic metals. Due to tough emission limits around the world the performance of the FGD system is essential to operation.

Most of the new FGD systems are being built in countries without the mechanical and chemical engineering FGD experience which has accumulated over decades in the U.S., Europe, and Japan. With cost effective sensors and wireless technology this experience can be utilized throughout the world.

IIoT is already being modestly applied to coal-fired power plants. With new open platform cloud-based programs, a number of separate initiatives can be integrated and leveraged.

Luminant and Duke Energy already have remote centers monitoring the rotating parts at all their plants. Lhoist is monitoring liquid lime levels and controlling reagent inventory in wastewater applications. Monitor Technologies has radar-based level measurement for remote monitoring of bulk lime and limestone levels as well as flow measurement for pneumatic conveying of reagents. Thermo Fisher has a remote center monitoring the SO₂and other emissions. Nalco has a remote center operating day and night to monitor water quality.

MHPS has a remote center in the Philippines and is expanding into monitoring of combustion in coal-fired power plants. Flowserve has remote monitoring of valves and pumps. Howden has remote monitoring of fan and compressor operations. These systems can reduce the cost of SO₂ control maintenance by being proactive as opposed to predictive or reactive. Several companies offer remote monitoring of coal flow and ensure that the correct weight (not volume) is introduced into the boiler.

With new open access platforms and the cloud, it is now possible for operators and their suppliers to view all the relevant information at any location. Furthermore, impacts on the balance-of-plant can be constantly included in the decision making with inclusion of other centers such as the one created by Nalco to measure water quality impacts.

The integration of this information for the plant operator is only the first step. Remote monitoring will enable remote operations and maintenance. This means that a plant in a developing country can be operated with the same expertise as one in a country steeped in FGD control experience. Uniper (the large German utility) and India Power have a joint venture to provide O&M services to Indian power plants. Luminant is offering to use its remote center to provide monitoring activities for industrial plants in Texas and other areas.

The cost of sensors is falling while the ability to measure critical parameters is expanding. Wireless telemetry makes possible communication of vast amounts of information at low cost. So how does the FGD industry take advantage of this opportunity. The answer lies in climbing the pyramid.

Emerson calls the decision pyramid DIKW. At the bottom, you have data. Next is information, followed by knowledge. At the top is wisdom. Here is how that pyramid can be applied to FGD.

	Means	Parameter
Data	Sensors, Instruments, Wireless Telemetry	Vibration, temperature, pressure, SO₂, HCl, pH, Hg.
Information	Historian, Edge Computing, Permitted NO_x and NH₃ Emissions	Flow of coal, reagent, flue gas, air emissions
Knowledge	Data Analytics	Empirical knowledge of the unexpected such as scaling, chloride saturation, mist carryover.
Wisdom	Remote Monitoring, Subject Matter Expertise, Knowledge Systems	Upgrading pumps, and valves, changing operations to meet new regulations, adjusting to reagent price changes

Worldwide companies such as Lhoist and Lafarge are well positioned to lead the way. Lafarge has digital services in many developing countries to help small calcium products sellers inventory their goods. They also have IIoT experience at their plants. They have teamed with Schneider Electric at their Dujiangyan cement plant in China which has three cement lines with a production capacity of over 5 million metric tons per year. The IIoT program has provided:

· Air compressor optimization, with a centralized control system avoiding idle running of air compressors

· Valuable energy improvements by reducing power consumption by 0.8kWh/t cement

· Remote access of the system also facilitates technical support when required, as well as access for ongoing energy analysis consulting and support.

The success of IIoT and Remote O&M for FGD and other coal-fired power plant operations will be greatly enhanced by capturing the experience of other industries and forming collaborative ventures with large numbers of suppliers. McIlvaine has both the technical and market decision systems to aid these groups.

The Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) will radically change the valve routes to market and valve revenues. With a projected growth rate of 13 percent IIoT will be responsible for valve revenues of $50 billion by 2030. ⁽¹⁾

If general purpose valves are the foot soldiers of IIoT then high performance valves belong in the armored division. Their performance is much more critical to the outcome of the battle to improve plant performance. IIoT promises to revolutionize industry but only if it is accompanied by IIoW (Industrial Internet of Wisdom). Decisive classification of high performance valve applications, designs, and materials is critical to IIoT success.

IIoT will generate continuous performance and condition information about each valve. A large plant could have 10,000 valves. In order to determine which valves are working best it is necessary to divide the applications and valve types into meaningful groups. One can then compare the performance of valves from different manufacturers in the defined group.

A high-performance valve is one which is in any of following three types of service.

· Severe Service: Corrosion, pressure, temperature, process operating fluctuations are all conditions that qualify an application as severe service.

· Critical Service: Safety, product purity, continuous operation, and product toxicity are criteria of critical service.

· Unique Service: The distinction is often made between an engineered valve versus an off the shelf or standard valve. In any case, the decision making for unique service valves needs to be made with prioritization of the lowest total cost of ownership.

World Industrial Valve Revenues - 2030 ($ Billions)
Revenue Source	Total	General Performance	High Performance
Total	90	40	50
Old route to market	40	18	22
New route to market (Remote O&M)	30	13	17
Additional Revenue (IIoT)	20	9	11
Revenues attributable to IIoT and Remote O&M	50	22	28

High performance valve sales of $17 billion in 2030 will be made to third parties. The IIoT additions to the valve offerings will boost revenues by $11 billion. As a result, the high performance IIoT valve market will be $28 billion.

The market share for a specific supplier will be shaped by not only the quality of his smart high performance valve but his willingness to assume a greater role. At the very least he should develop his own remote monitoring center and provide analytics and wisdom at higher levels. The levels as defined by Honeywell are shown in the chart below.

Level	Device	Function
1	Smart Sensors	Sensor and actuator with no or small amount of local processing and data storage
2	Edge Device/Smarter Connected Sensor	Includes a sensor, some local processing, data storage, power management, connectivity, security and user interface
3	Local System/Connected Edge	Connect to a gateway, controller or server. Connectivity is mostly local in a closed loop system, could have cloud connectivity.
4	Cloud Infrastructure	Allows data to be accessed, aggregated, stored monitored and actuated anywhere in the world
5	Big Data Analytics	Servers with cloud connectivity gather data for advance applications e.g. data analytics, visualization, machine learning

There is also a scope hierarchy which influences potential IIoT. Valve suppliers can seize the opportunity to expand their scope by offering Level 3 programs.

Hierarchy	Deliverable	Level
1	Flow control component products such as valves and pumps	1-3
2	Processes e.g. separation, reaction, heat transfer, combustion	1-4
3.	Systems e.g. ultrapure water steam generation, wastewater treatment	1-5
4	Plants e.g. refineries, power plants, pharmaceutical, semiconductor	1-5

A large valve supplier, e.g. Pentair or a valve supplier with automation divisions, e.g. Metso and Flowserve, a valve supplier which is part of a company also selling processes, systems and or plants, e.g. GE, Wärtsilä, has the opportunity is to be a Level 5 provider.

At the very minimum the valve supplier has to design his valve for smart sensing. He also should supply the sensors. At Level 1 he can sell to suppliers of processes. But by teaming up with Honeywell, Rockwell, ABB, Schneider Electric, Yokogawa or other Level 2 & 3 providers, the valve supplier can play a more important role. The insights he will receive will allow him to improve his valve products for specific applications.

The valve supplier can better improve his products with the support of what are called "subject matter experts" of the IIoT community. It can be argued that subject matter expertise needs the same degree of organization (IIoW) as IIoT. One example of this is a series of Decision Guides on specific high performance valve applications which is being assembled by McIlvaine.

Three of the most challenging applications for valves in the oil and gas industry are molecular sieve switching, flow control in oil and gas drilling, and gate valves used at greater than 5000 psi. When switching from one dehydration sieve unit to another zeolite particles are entrapped in the gas stream and create valve problems. The choke valves used for control in drilling are subjected to sand and other abrasive particles. In addition, the temperatures and pressures can be high. Gate valves used in hydraulic fracking and subsea operations at pressures greater than 5000 psi are operating in a tough environment where selection of the right designs and materials is critical.

In the power industry most new coal-fired boilers are operating in the ultra-supercritical range, so valves are typically subjected to temperatures above 750°F. These plants are quite large (up to 1000 MW), so any downtime is quite costly. Heat recovery steam generators used with gas turbine plants are often required to stop and start hundreds of times during the year. This rapid cycling is encountered where gas turbines are providing the backup power to solar and wind. This cycling has created a unique flow acceleration corrosion (FAC) problem. Decision Guides are being continually expanded in these four areas and will serve as an example of what can be done to further valve IIoW. ⁽³⁾

For valve manufacturers the IIoT opportunity is transformational. The path forward is uncertain and is likely to be continually revised. Valve suppliers should further their IIoW efforts to make valves smarter and should expand into remote communications of this intelligence. They also should take advantage of the IIoW potential. High performance valves should be given the highest priority.