January 2017 - Water Market Insights 216

The Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) and remote operation and maintenance will combine to create a market worth $1.4 trillion in 2030 according to the latest forecasts in N031 Industrial IOT and Remote O&M Market Report published by the McIlvaine company. A series of nine webinars will provide some of the conclusions from the report. The presentations will be followed by a discussion period where participants can share their views and ask questions. Each webinar will be scheduled on a Thursday at 10 a.m. CDT. Participation is free.

February 16. IIoT and Remote O&M Markets: Questions to be addressed include: Why combine IIoT and Remote O&M forecasts? Why will this market grow at 13%/yr.? What are the major markets segmented by industry, region, and product? What are the limiting factors to growth? How do suppliers best take advantage of the opportunity.?

February 23: Gas Turbine, Reciprocating Engine IIoT and Remote O&M. This industry segment has made the most progress in leveraging IIoT for remote O&M services. Turbine and component suppliers have remote monitoring centers operating around the clock. This session will explain why a 2030 forecast of $30 billion is predicted. It will answer the question as to how established technologies such as remote vibration analysis will be combined with analytics and decision making relative to all components in the balance of the plant.

March 2: Coal-Fired Power IIoT and Remote O&M: This session will build on nine hours of webinars recently conducted on optimizing NOx emissions,42 years of data analysis in Coal-Fired Power Plant Decisions and a previous McIlvaine report entitled Information Technology in Electricity Generation. It will discuss the basis for an $80 billion 2030 forecast for coal-fired IIoT and remote O&M with a focus on the potential for utilities in developing countries to take advantage of the world’s expertise through services from international consortia.

March 9: Pump IIoT & Remote O&M. The potential for pump suppliers to add $20 billion of annual revenue and create new market routes for pumps valued at $25 billion will be discussed along with the evolution from vibration and lube oil monitoring to maximizing efficiency and minimizing maintenance costs. Based on the research in N019 Pumps World Market the session will discuss the various routes to market (system suppliers, third party O&M providers, and direct to end users).

March 16: Industrial Valve IIoT & Remote O&M. The role industrial valves will play in expanding the market to $1.4 trillion while generating $20 billion in additional valve revenues and carving new routes for valve sales worth $30 billion will be explained. Insights from N028 Industrial Valves: World Market will be leveraged to predict the evolution of smart valves, valve inventory management programs such as being offered by GE, integration with third party programs and the role for subject matter experts.

March 23: Oil and Gas IIoT and Remote O&M. McIlvaine predicts this market will grow to $168 billion by 2030. Insights from N049 Oil, Gas, Shale and Refining Markets and Projects will be used to describe the present disparate programs and the eventual amalgamation to interactive systems using open platform software. Safety, security, maintenance, environment, and efficiency will be considered. The webinar will include uses in the upstream, midstream and downstream segments of the industry.

March 30: Filtration and Separation IIoT and Remote O&M. The basis for a $350 billion 2030 market will be provided. The broad range of applications as delineated in many market reports Markets will be analyzed. This includes thousands of applications including ones as diverse as vibration monitoring and polymer dosage for centrifuges to filter condition monitoring for stationary IC engines. Clarcor already provides a total filtration solution package which includes replacing of all filters in a plant as needed. Donaldson offers a filter program for off road engines.

April 6: Water & Wastewater IIoT and Remote O&M. Municipal water and wastewater treatment systems are challenged by long pipelines subject to leakage, corrosion, odors and blockages as well as by maintaining valves and pumps in remote locations. New wireless technologies are already enthusiastically embraced. McIlvaine will provide insights based on several of its services: 62EI North American Municipal Wastewater Treatment Facilities and People Database and 67EI North American Public Water Plants and People as well as on ongoing private studies on subjects such as aeration compressors. This market is projected to reach $168 billion in 2030.

April 13: Air Pollution Control. The basis for a $60 billion 2030 IIoT forecast will be explained. Continuous emissions monitoring systems are now required in many industries in many countries. Typically minute by minute emissions of each pollutant are transmitted to owners as well as enforcement agencies. There is a huge potential to integrate the information from these systems with combustion and other process optimization systems to operate plants based on both total economic and environmental cost of ownership. McIlvaine will be providing insights based on analyses included in N027 FGD Market and Strategies, N035 NOx Control World Market, N021 World Fabric Filter and Element Market, N018 Electrostatic Precipitator World Market. Remote operation and maintenance of electrostatic precipitators is well established and successful. This success is a model for other IIoT initiatives and will therefore be examined in detail.

Subsequent webinars. The following subjects will be included in future IIoT webinars

Recorded Interviews. Periodic recorded webinars with suppliers, consultants and end users will be linked from this page as well as being displayed in Hot Topic Hour recordings. Much of the future sensor input will be related to environmental performance. This in turn is tied to the regulations. Recently we conducted an interview with Patricia Scroggin of Burns & McDonnell. You can view it at Meeting the new ELG and CCR requirements- options explained by Patricia Scroggin (Interview Dated: 1/20/2017).

$125 Billion/yr. Power Plant IIoT Instrumentation, Software and Service Opportunity

World electricity consumption is 25,000 terawatt hours per year. Generation of this electricity costs $2.5 trillion per year. Machine to machine communication in combination with remote monitoring and service has the potential to reduce this cost by 5 percent and create a $125 billion dollar per year opportunity. This is the latest forecast in a special ongoing analysis included in N031 Industrial IOT and Remote O&M.

The opportunity incorporates, smart instrumentation, component monitoring, digital data generation at the plant, software programs, remote monitoring, third party operation and maintenance and a combination of subject matter experts and data analytics.

The opportunity is shaped by the ability of sensors to accurately detect the flow of liquids, gases, air, water and solids. The quality of the flow is also critical. Continuous emissions monitoring systems measure the air contaminants such as NO_x, SO₂ and particulate. New regulations have added the need to measure mercury in the exhaust gas and selenium in the wastewater. The temperature, moisture and particulate levels for lubricating fluids used in the rotating equipment are also important.

The need for accurate injection extends to corrosion and scale inhibitors, biocides, pH adjusters, polymers for wastewater treatment and many new chemicals needed for air and water pollution control. These include activated carbon, lime, limestone, ammonia and urea.

Ambient air and water measurement needs include wind measurement for wind turbine optimization, ambient air and water measurement in areas surrounding the plant and many predictive weather measurements for solar and wind operations.

All of these measurements are being enhanced by the development of smart sensors. Tunable diode lasers allow measurement of O₂at critical points in the combustion zone. The incorporation of an analysis function within the instrument itself rather than through the distributed control system has cost advantages and more importantly shortens response time.

Suppliers of this instrumentation are found in the McIlvaine Air and Water Monitoring report in many categories and sub categories.

Measurement Categories	Examples
Function	Analysis, extraction, integration, display, services, consumables, accessories
Medium	Ambient air and water, process liquids and gases, solids, oil, injection chemicals
Properties Measured	Physical, chemical, electrical, other
Measurement Parameters	Count, weight, volume, temperature, pressure, contaminants, viscosity
Operating Principles	Chemical, electrochemical, light, opacity
Mode of Use	Continuous, hand held, laboratory, process

The opportunity varies widely depending on the fuel source. Coal represents the largest potential because it is the leading type of generation and has high needs for measurement.

Instrumentation Market Size by Medium Measured
Fuel Source	Weather	Water	Air	Process Liquids	Process Gases	Solids
Coal	S	H	H	M	M	H
Nuclear	S	H	M	H	H	M
Gas	S	M	H	S	S	S
Solar	L	S	S	S	S	S
Wind	L	S	L	S	S	S
Biomass	S	S	L	S	S	L
Geothermal	S	M	L	H	H	S
Hydro	S	H	S	S	S	S

Condition monitoring of components is well established for lubrication systems for turbines, compressors, etc. The growth opportunities are in measuring not only the health but also the operational information of valves, pumps, filters, separators and other components. Mann + Hummel recognizes this opportunity and has just invested in a large filtration IIoT research center in Singapore. Pentair, Flowserve and other pump and valve suppliers are rapidly strengthening their component monitoring capabilities.

GE says that coal-fired power plants could be made approximately 4 percent more efficient with 2.5 percent improvement in efficiencies coming from turbine and boiler upgrades, and 1.5 percent coming from software improvements. The analysis also found that applying all potential upgrades to coal-fired power plants can remove 900 million metric tons of CO₂ (11 percent of total coal power emissions) - more than the annual CO₂ output of the United Kingdom and France combined.

McIlvaine has conducted nine hours of webinars for PacifiCorp with presentations by GE, Emerson, Siemens and others which pointed the way to large savings with combustion optimization. The reduction in NO_x emissions was particularly significant.

The software programs include partnerships between power plant system suppliers and specialized software providers. GE says Predix will enable GE to lead the next generation of industrial progress, through improved manufacturing processes and digitally manufactured products, transforming GE into a stronger and more valuable company. GE believes its digital business will grow GE’s software and analytics enterprise from $6 billion in 2015 to a top 10 software company by 2020. GE has purchased NEUCO who has developed neural networks to control not only the operation of the furnace but also components such as soot blowers.

General software participants include large companies such as Intel with its Wind River subsidiary and specialist companies such as OSIsoft and SoftDEL.

The large gas turbine suppliers have remote monitoring centers which primarily track the health of rotating parts. This is frequently part of the warrantee program. However, companies such as MHPS are branching out to monitor more of the plant’s components. MHPS just opened a remote monitoring center in the Philippines which is monitoring coal-fired power plants. The service center can also provide assistance to power plants not built by MHPS. In addition to its data analysis capabilities, the center can also manage maintenance equipment and dispatch staff in emergency situations. It will, in addition, serve as a training hub for technicians. Every year, around 200 individuals will be picked from both in and outside the company to transfer technical expertise on maintenance and management.

There is a huge potential for companies such as MHPS and GE to work with other suppliers and incorporate hundreds of individual remote monitoring programs. For example, Nalco operates an around the clock monitoring center on water quality. If companies such as Mann + Hummel can operate filter monitoring centers and, if all the results are integrated for analysis and action, it will greatly improve the support for the operators.

There is a big potential for interconnection of facilities in large utility organizations. McIlvaine has been involved with a program for Berkshire Hathaway Energy.

Duke Power has developed central systems which can for example monitor all the pumps at its various stations. However, it is shifting away from the traditional centralized proprietary systems and evolving to support distributed intelligence, interoperability and IIoT. Efforts to develop its smart grid have resulted in the enablement of these concepts through what the industry calls OpenFMB (Open Field Message Bus).

Third party operation and maintenance represents the biggest revenue opportunity for IIoT in the power industry.

GE Energy is one of the world’s largest third party providers of plant Operation and Maintenance services, currently with more than 16,000 MW at 60 sites in 17 countries under O&M contract. Global resources combined with over 20 years of O&M experience, enable GE to provide complete plant services across the turbine island and balance of plant—for both GE and non-GE equipment.

Siemens, MHPS, IHI and other turbine suppliers also offer similar services. There are a number of companies specializing in O&M including large companies such as Wood and smaller companies such as Ethos Energy and Proenergy. Uniper and India Power have formed a joint venture to support operations and maintenance at Indian power plants.

The generation of large amounts of data is not of value unless it is properly analyzed for action. XLMPR recommends hybrid data analytics marrying the experience based models with ones based on physics and data. The IIoT greatly increases the capability for database models but this data needs to be molded by experience. Subject matter experts are needed to provide the niche expertise in each of thousands of areas. The pool of recently retired people can be tapped for their unique combination of knowledge and availability for short engagements.

The analysis and forecast of IIoT instrumentation, software and service opportunities in Power Generation is included as a special report in N031 Industrial IOT and Remote O&M.

Utility E-Alert Tracks Billions of Dollars of New Coal-fired Power Plants on a Weekly Basis

· RJM uses CFD and New burners to reduce NO_x at Rugeley Power Station in the UK

· AP-Genco starting construction of New 800 MW Unit at Dr. Narla Tata Rao Thermal Power Station in Andhra Pradesh

· Fortum to supply Second Measure Technology on Two Coal-fired Boilers in Poland

· China's Air Pollution crisis shows no sign of ending as Nation fails to lower Coal use

· NTPC Alstom awarded Contract for Upgradation Project of Steam Turbines in Telangana, India

· Doosan Lentjes announced its Circoclean^® Dry FGD Plant passed Performance Test

The 41F Utility E-Alert is issued weekly and covers the coal-fired projects, regulations and other information important to the suppliers. It is $950/yr. but is included in the $3020 42EI Utility Tracking System which has data on every plant and project plus networking directories and many other features.