February 2017 - Water Market Insights 217

The Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) combined with remote operations and maintenance promise to make the reduction much more cost effective. Luminant and Duke Energy already have remote centers monitoring the rotating parts at all their plants. Yara has a remote center monitoring the levels of reagent in storage and automatically setting delivery schedules for the next truckload when required. Thermo Fisher has a remote center monitoring the NO_xand other emissions continuously.

MHPS has a remote center in the Philippines and is expanding into monitoring of combustion in coal-fired power plants. Siemens has licensed tunable diode laser instrumentation and can determine O₂ and CO levels at any point in the combustion zone. GE has neural networks which learn from burner damper settings and optimize their location. They have SootOpt which controls cleaning of the boiler tubes but balances NO_x caused by additional energy consumed in the soot blower vs. NO_x resulting from inefficiency from ash laded tubes.

Flowserve has remote monitoring of valves and pumps. Howden has remote monitoring of fan and compressor operations. These systems can reduce the cost of NO_xcontrol maintenance by being proactive as opposed to predictive or reactive. Several companies offer remote monitoring of coal flow and insure that the correct weight (not volume) is introduced into the boiler.

With the new open access platforms and the cloud, it is now possible for operators and their suppliers to view all the relevant information at any location. Furthermore, the impacts on balance of plant can be constantly included in the decision making with inclusion of other centers such as the one created by Nalco to measure water quality impacts.

The integration of this information for the plant operator is only the first step. Remote monitoring will enable remote operations and maintenance. This means that a plant in a developing country can be operated with the same expertise as one in a country steeped in NO_xcontrol experience. Uniper (the large German utility) and India Power have a joint venture to provide O&M services to Indian power plants. Luminant is offering to use its remote center to provide monitoring activities for industrial plants in Texas and other areas.

The cost of sensors is falling while the ability to measure critical parameters is expanding. Wireless telemetry makes possible communication of vast amounts of information at low cost. So how does the NO_xcontrol industry take advantage of the opportunity. The answer lies in climbing the pyramid.

Emerson calls the decision pyramid DIKW. At the bottom, you have data. Next is information, followed by knowledge. At the top is wisdom. Here is how that pyramid can be applied to NO_x control.

	Means	Parameter
Data	Sensors, Instruments, Wireless Telemetry	Vibration, Temperature, Pressure, NO_x, NH₃, N₂O, CO₂, etc.
Information	Historian, Edge Computing, Permitted NO_x and NH₃ Emissions	Burner Damper Settings, flow of coal, urea, air Emission Totals
Knowledge	Data Analytics Clean Catalyst Rejuvenate Catalyst Regenerate Catalyst	Trend in loss of NO_x removal, increased pressure drop but also mercury oxidation.
Wisdom	Remote Monitoring, Subject Matter Expertise, Knowledge Systems	How do you schedule catalyst replacement for each layer with both mercury and NO_x as considerations?

Ninety-five percent of the attention to date has been on how to best handle digital data and information. Data analytics has been addressed from a methodology standpoint. The conversion of knowledge to wisdom has been left mostly unaddressed other than acknowledge the need for subject matter experts.

This can be likened to the tiger soup story where the recipe is thoroughly described but there is no explanation as to how to catch the tiger. Wisdom needs marquee billing along with IIoT. It should be IIoT and IIoW.

The McIlvaine company conducted nine hours of webinars for PacifiCorp relative to NO_x control options for the Hunter and Huntington plants. As many as 80 people were participating and their input revealed new options which potentially will greatly decrease the cost of NO_xcontrol. The knowledge from other industries and from the past turned out to be very important. The basis for the discussions was the NO_x Decision Guide which McIlvaine has been working on for 30 years.

Wisdom and subject matter expertise are best achieved by leveraging the world’s information but also setting up platforms similar to those used with the software. One is decisive classification of terms. McIlvaine conducted a meeting with catalyst suppliers and received agreement of a division for catalyst improvement which included cleaning, rejuvenation and regeneration. Definitions of each were then published in both English and Chinese.

Another platform is a common metric to measure all harm and good. GE has long argued that with their low NO_x combustor their gas turbines have a better environmental profile than a turbine fitted with SCR. Even though NO_x emissions are slightly higher, there are no NH₃ emissions. So, if a ton of NH₃ is worth only a ton of NO_x, the GE argument fails to persuade. But, if it is worth 50 tons, then the argument is persuasive. GE cites the very low NH₃ limits as compared to NO_x to justify a much higher harm quotient for NH₃.

IIoT and data analytics combined with the harm metric will allow a plant to optimize all its emissions. There are tradeoffs between NO_x, CO, efficiency (CO₂), and fine particulate. NO_x reduction can cause higher CO levels, lower efficiency and, hence, more CO₂, and increased fine particulate.

Europe has learned the hard lesson about applying the common harm metric. Owners of diesel cars who are only allowed to enter cities on alternate days due to smog must now question the wisdom of the program to force the selection of lower CO₂ but high NO_x producing vehicles.

There is great optimism for the IIoT potential. Proponents cite not only the greater efficiencies of operation but the potential for IIoT to accelerate research and development. But this dream will not be fulfilled just by improving the methods of data acquisition, information gathering and simple analytics. Converting this knowledge to wisdom will take a special effort. It is the equivalent challenge of the chef capturing the tiger.

Utility E-Alert Tracks Billions of Dollars of New Coal-fired Power Plants on a Weekly Basis

· Deals signed for $2.5 Billion Coal-fired Power Plants to be set up in Hub and Thar under CPEC

· Electricity Ministry contracts with Tractebel to assess offers for $10 Billion Coal-fired Power Plant

· Alcantara starts first 105 MW Block of the 210 MW Coal-fired Power Plant in the Philippines

· Balkan push for New Coal-fired Power Plants raises Environmental concerns

The 41F Utility E-Alert is issued weekly and covers the coal-fired projects, regulations and other information important to the suppliers. It is $950/yr. but is included in the $3020 42EI Utility Tracking System which has data on every plant and project plus networking directories and many other features.

The Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) and remote operation and maintenance will combine to create a market worth $1.4 trillion in 2030 according to the latest forecasts in N031 Industrial IOT and Remote O&M Market Report published by the McIlvaine Company. A series of nine webinars will provide some of the conclusions from the report. The presentations will be followed by a discussion period where participants can share their views and ask questions. Each webinar will be scheduled on a Thursday at 10 a.m. CDT. Participation is free.

February 16. IIoT and Remote O&M Markets: Questions to be addressed include: Why combine IIoT and Remote O&M forecasts? Why will this market grow at 13%/yr.? What are the major markets segmented by industry, region, and product? What are the limiting factors to growth? How do suppliers best take advantage of the opportunity?

February 23: Gas Turbine, Reciprocating Engine IIoT and Remote O&M. This industry segment has made the most progress in leveraging IIoT for remote O&M services. Turbine and component suppliers have remote monitoring centers operating around the clock. This session will explain why a 2030 forecast of $30 billion is predicted. It will answer the question as to how established technologies such as remote vibration analysis will be combined with analytics and decision making relative to all components in the balance of the plant.

March 2: Coal-Fired Power IIoT and Remote O&M: This session will build on nine hours of webinars recently conducted on optimizing NO_x emissions, 42 years of data analysis in Coal-fired Power Plant Decisions and a previous McIlvaine report entitled Information Technology in Electricity Generation. It will discuss the basis for an $80 billion 2030 forecast for coal-fired IIoT and remote O&M with a focus on the potential for utilities in developing countries to take advantage of the world's expertise through services from international consortia.

March 9: Pump IIoT & Remote O&M. The potential for pump suppliers to add $20 billion of annual revenue and create new market routes for pumps valued at $25 billion will be discussed along with the evolution from vibration and lube oil monitoring to maximizing efficiency and minimizing maintenance costs. Based on the research in N019 Pumps World Market the session will discuss the various routes to market (system suppliers, third party O&M providers, and direct to end users).

March 16: Industrial Valve IIoT & Remote O&M. The role industrial valves will play in expanding the market to $1.4 trillion while generating $20 billion in additional valve revenues and carving new routes for valve sales worth $30 billion will be explained. Insights from N028 Industrial Valves: World Market will be leveraged to predict the evolution of smart valves, valve inventory management programs such as being offered by GE, integration with third party programs and the role for subject matter experts.

March 23: Oil and Gas IIoT and Remote O&M. McIlvaine predicts this market will grow to $168 billion by 2030. Insights from N049 Oil, Gas, Shale and Refining Markets and Projects will be used to describe the present disparate programs and the eventual amalgamation to interactive systems using open platform software. Safety, security, maintenance, environment, and efficiency will be considered. The webinar will include uses in the upstream, midstream and downstream segments of the industry.

March 30: Filtration and Separation IIoT and Remote O&M. The basis for a $350 billion 2030 market will be provided. The broad range of applications as delineated in many market reports "Markets" will be analyzed. This includes thousands of applications including ones as diverse as vibration monitoring and polymer dosage for centrifuges to filter condition monitoring for stationary IC engines. Clarcor already provides a total filtration solution package which includes replacing of all filters in a plant as needed. Donaldson offers a filter program for off road engines.

April 6: Water & Wastewater IIoT and Remote O&M. Municipal water and wastewater treatment systems are challenged by long pipelines subject to leakage, corrosion, odors and blockages as well as by maintaining valves and pumps in remote locations. New wireless technologies are already enthusiastically embraced. McIlvaine will provide insights based on several of its services: 62EI North American Municipal Wastewater Treatment Facilities and People Database and 67EI North American Public Water Plants and People as well as on ongoing private studies on subjects such as aeration compressors. This market is projected to reach $168 billion in 2030.

April 13: Air Pollution Control. The basis for a $60 billion 2030 IIoT forecast will be explained. Continuous emissions monitoring systems are now required in many industries in many countries. Typically minute by minute emissions of each pollutant are transmitted to owners as well as enforcement agencies. There is a huge potential to integrate the information from these systems with combustion and other process optimization systems to operate plants based on both total economic and environmental cost of ownership. McIlvaine will be providing insights based on included in N027 FGD Market and Strategies, N035 NOx Control World Market, N021 World Fabric Filter and Element Market, N018 Electrostatic Precipitator World Market. Remote operation and maintenance of electrostatic precipitators is well established and successful. This success is a model for other IIoT initiatives and will therefore be examined in detail.

Subsequent webinars. The following subjects will be included in future IIoT webinars:

Recorded Interviews. Periodic recorded webinars with suppliers, consultants and end users will be linked from this page as well as being displayed in Hot Topic Hour recordings. Much of the future sensor input will be related to environmental performance. This in turn is tied to the regulations. Recently we conducted an interview with Patricia Scroggin of Burns & McDonnell. You can view it at Meeting the new ELG and CCR requirements- options explained by Patricia Scroggin (Interview Dated: 1/20/2017).

The analysis and forecast of IIoT instrumentation, software and service opportunities in Power Generation is included as a special report in N031 Industrial IIot and remote O&M.