Gas Turbine, Reciprocating Engine IIoT and Remote O&M Webinar on Thursday, February 23

Join us on Thursday to discuss IIoT and Remote O&M for gas turbines and reciprocating engines. We believe that IIoT empowered by IIoW will accelerate progress. The IIoW is the Industrial Internet of Wisdom. Background information such as linked below is an example of the McIlvaine contribution to IIoW.

Click here to Register for the Webinars

IIoT and Remote O&M Webinar February 16 analyzed the Route to Market

The webinar yesterday covered the entire market for IIoT whereas the session on March 2 will only focus on coal-fired power plants. One of the participants yesterday was with ADA-ES. She has decades of experience with mercury removal and measurement. The company also has DSI system design and operation experience. How can a company with this mix of products and services benefit in the rapidly growing IIoT market?

There are two options:  leading or following. Leading would require major changes in the organization but following could be very rewarding with minimum investment. Let's take an example where MHPS would be the leader and ADA-ES would be a partner. MHPS operates a remote monitoring center in the Philippines. This location was chosen because of the number of English speakers who could be employed. Initially the effort is focused on turbines and other rotating equipment.

 The next step beyond monitoring the steam turbine in a coal-fired power plant in South Korea would also be expanding the monitoring in a cloud-based system to take into account data from all the other products and processes. This data would also be monitored by individual suppliers. Thermo, ADA-ES and MHPS would be viewing the CEMS data. The water quality data would be analyzed in a Nalco remote monitoring center in the U.S. which, by the way, is already operating 24/7. The lubrication filter health data would be analyzed from the Parker Hannifin center in the U.S. The cloud-based program supplied by OptiSoft, Genpact, Accenture or others would also analyze the fan vibration monitoring data with support from the Howden remote control center in Scotland. The remote Cormetech catalyst monitoring center would be monitoring mercury oxidation activity of the installed catalyst. Additional sensors would allow precise determination of activated carbon consumption and the system would compare samples on mercury in the coal from the plant laboratory using the Thermo analyzer to determine the raw mercury quantities in the combustion gas prior to ACI injection. Mercury analyzers downstream of the ACI would determine ACI effectiveness.

ADA-ES would secure a contract to provide regularly scheduled review of the operations to determine if additional efficiencies could be obtained as a result of data analysis. Furthermore, there would be an ADA-ES expert available 24/7 in case of an emergency level problem. ADA-ES would use the knowledge it gains from the operation of many systems and many types of virgin and impregnated carbons to provide additional guidance for its clients. In a small way it could duplicate the GE gas turbine modus operandi that uses data from 40,000 turbines to help solve new problems as they occur. ADA-ES would also have the revenue base to pursue new mercury removal options.

In this Alert we are reporting on successful use of ionic liquids. Could this be an improvement? In fact, McIlvaine was hired by Petronas to find a better mercury removal method for natural gas extraction. No good alternative was discovered. Petronas then invested in research and found that ionic liquid impregnated pellets were quite superior to activated carbon. Clariant has now made these commercially available.

The discussion yesterday did not involve valves or pumps, however, there will be a separate webinar on these subjects. There are many valve companies providing remote monitoring. Emerson and Flowserve are examples. There is the opportunity to improve valve design as a result of lessons learned in comprehensive monitoring. Honeywell UOP was a participant yesterday. No one is more knowledgeable about refining and gas processing. Last year we embarked on a quest to find the best molecular sieve switching valves. The UOP experts confessed that they were a year or two behind on developments such as hard coatings which could make a big difference in valve selection.

Our conclusion is that you need the expertise of the valve and hard coatings experts and that you cannot just rely on the process experts. This same analogy holds true for boiler systems supplied by B&W, MHPS, or Doosan. Progress on component development needs to come from the suppliers, but they need to know more about the processes. So valve companies who minute-by- minute are seeing valve performance data from ultra-supercritical, sub-critical, biomass-fired, pet coke-fired, and 40 percent ash coal-fired power plants are going to gain this process knowledge.

The theme of the webinar yesterday was that success is going to be 1 x IIoT + 2 x IIoW. IIoW is the acronym McIlvaine coined to represent the Industrial Internet of Wisdom. IIoW dictates interconnection of individuals within each plant in a utility system as well as interconnecting with all the suppliers. McIlvaine created a beta site 4S01 Berkshire Hathaway Energy Supplier and Utility Connect. The goal would be to create sites for the 100 largest utilities in the world. This would account for the majority of the world's generation. We have demonstrated that organizing all the permit and product information on each boiler creates a fast track to IIoW.

Another component is interconnection of individuals in supplier organizations. This includes disparate product divisions, geographies and job functions. The webinar yesterday used the BHE example as to how all these different supplier segments can organize around each major customer.

We will be conducting the IIoT Gas Turbine webinar next week and on March 2 the webinar on Coal-fired Boilers. We look forward to your participation.

Many Different Types of Companies have Major Opportunities in IIoT and Remote O&M

Much of the webinar was focused on discussing the opportunities for specific companies. Many of the companies for which there was expanded discussion were participants in the webinar. End users such as BHE are beneficiaries; product suppliers have a big potential. Process suppliers such as UOP and MHPS have immediate opportunities. Some companies such as Berendsen have opportunities in their own and customer operations (both the company and the customers operate cleanrooms). The following table focuses on the potential collaboration opportunities among divisions within each company.

Progress will be One-Third IIoT and Two-Thirds IIoW

The Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) has already accelerated the increase in GDP and is predicted to add more than $10 trillion to world GDP by 2030. All this will be made possible by the proliferation of cost effective sensors and wireless transmission. Digital process management will utilize this data to better operate industrial processes.

The focus is on changing the way we gather and utilize numbers, but not on how we change the way we gather and utilize thoughts. However, IIoT progress will be much faster if we adopt the Industrial Internet of Wisdom (IIoW). It can be argued that IIoW improvements will be twice as important as IIoT improvements. IIoW improvements such as Google are providing digital access to information but not necessarily maximizing the ability to move from data to information to knowledge to wisdom.

IIoT creates instantaneous opportunities. IIoW needs to adapt to achieve the IIoT potential.  Some aspects of IIoW date back thousands of years.  Tri-annual exhibitions at European crossroads are organized on thousand year old traditions. Peer reviewed papers need to be submitted months before publication.  These traditions must change to take advantage of instant opportunities.

Data Analytics is the IIoT mantra for creating wisdom from knowledge. There is lots of room for improvement in the IIoW version of data analytics. Innovations in one industry are ignored in others. Individuals in different divisions of a company often are more competitive than collaborative.  How many gatherings provide true debate of issues?  Why is 5 to 10% of the world's niche expertise lost through retirement every year

The potential for changing IIoW to take advantage of digital tools and IIoT is so large that you can argue that the formula for progress is 1 x IIoT + 2 x IIoW.  So a dollar spent on improving IIoW will be twice as valuable as one spent on improving IIoT.  But there are many more dollars being spent on IIoT improvement than on IIoW, so large resources should be devoted to improving IIoW.

McIlvaine is pursuing this need by offering clients a combination of its Industrial IoT and Remote O&M service with its other product and industry focused services.  Each week McIlvaine is conducting a free webinar to probe the potential in one industry or product.  This schedule is shown at Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) N031 Industrial IoT and Remote O&M. (Formerly Air and Water Monitoring) click on: http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/component/content/article/28-energy/675-hot-topic-hour-info#weekly

Summaries of IIoW empowered IIoT for specific products and technologies are provided at:

Ultrapure Water Market bolstered by IIoT will exceed $12 billion in 2026

$22 Billion Sedimentation and Centrifugation Market will take many Potential Purchasing Routes

IIoT and NO_x Control:  The Opportunity and the Challenge

IIoT and Thermal Gas Treatment:  The Opportunity and the Challenge

$5 Billion Cleanroom Market will be Increasingly Impacted by IIoT Technologies

Industrial IoT and Remote Operations and Maintenance Will Generate Revenues In Excess Of $1.4 Trillion

Gas Turbine Opportunities for Valve Companies Shaped by IIoT

IIoT is Creating New Market Paths to the $1 Billion Gas Turbine Plant Pump Repair, Replace and Service Market

IIoT is Creating New Market Paths to the $100 Billion Gas Turbine Repair, Replace and Service Market

IIoT is Creating New Market Paths to the $400 Million Gas Turbine and Reciprocating Engine Liquid Cartridge Replace and Service Market

IIoT is Creating New Market Paths to the $700 Million Gas Turbine and Reciprocating Engine Air Filter Repair, Replace and Service Market

Remote Support is a $1.6 Billion Potential Business for Precipitator Product and Service Companies

Role of Power Plant Consulting Firms in IIoT and Remote O&M

Power plant engineering and consulting firms have both a big potential IIoT opportunity but also the threat of a radically different environment which would reduce revenues.

The success or failure may depend on the IIoW contribution. IIoW is the Industrial Internet of Wisdom which will likely empower IIoT. But it is a cycle. The invaluable information generated by the IIoT systems should lead to new procedures and new technologies chronicled by IIoW which will lead to new IIoT generated insights and then to even newer and better technologies.

Positive Aspects of IIoT & Remote O&M empowered by IIoW for consulting companies:

·       Substantial revenues directly associated with IIoT and Remote O&M

·       Promotional value of niche expertise leading to larger contracts

·       Ability for U.S. or European based firms to leverage skills around the world

Negative Aspects of IIoT and Remote O&M empowered by IIoT for consulting companies: 

·       IIoT will generate more potential knowledge than can be handled by the traditional consulting company

·       There will need to be hundreds of thousands of specialized niche experts who provide much of the insight

·       Consulting firms tend to employ only people who generate billable hours and if necessary will hire experts for modest input

·       In an IIoW empowered IIoT world the consultant may lose his knowledge edge to new kinds of organizations who most efficiently utilize the niche experts

If you are going to improve operations at a power plant you can hire a consulting engineering firm to analyze the existing operations and recommend changes. They can then create a set of specifications and evaluate bids. The firm can then oversee the installation and can provide follow on services.

Many of the world's largest power plant consulting firms are U.S. based. They include broad based consultants such as AECOM, Bechtel, Black & Veatch, Burns & McDonnell, Kiewit and Sargent & Lundy. They also include focused firms such as, MPR and Trinity Consultants. A number of European utilities have formed consulting groups. Laborelec. Steag and Uniper are examples.

Design firms often compete with EPC contractors. In Asia, the typical approach is to invite turnkey bids from EPC firms. In the U.S., the most common approach is creation of specifications for a project by an A/E firm who then overseas bids from the EPC firms or from sub-system bidders.

Most of the large firms have operations and maintenance services. Many have embraced IIoT and some have acquired software companies to enable them to compete with large management consulting firms such as Accenture and Genpact.

The large consulting companies are an important source of the niche expertise needed to advance the power industry. A utility would look to the consultant to evaluate technology options and create bid specifications based on knowledge assumed to be superior to that available within the utility and unavailable in an unbiased way from the technology suppliers.

Specific Examples

Kiewit: has substantial consulting activities to supplement its engineering and construction businesses. McIlvaine has conducted webinars with Kiewit air and water experts. There are links to some of these presentations in the promotional material for the Gas Turbine IIoT Webinar on the McIlvaine Home Page. Here is an example of how Kiewit niche expertise would work.

Brad Buecher was a chemist at a power plant before joining Kiewit. He is a world expert on water chemistry for power plant steam cycles. Here is a scenario as to how his services could be utilized:

·       MHPS has a remote monitoring center in the Philippines and oversees gas turbine operations at plants in Asia. Let's assume that they expand from just monitoring rotating parts to the full balance of plant monitoring.

·       Hach monitors water quality parameters.

·       Nalco monitors water treatment chemical use.

·       Flowserve monitors valve and pump conditions

·       All this data flows through the MHPS center and is available to Brad in the U.S. He then uses his knowledge of flow accelerated corrosion and water chemistry to provide periodic advice as part of a yearly contract. He is also available in an emergency.

Kiewit has electrical, instrumentation and telecommunication activities in many industries e.g. common platform for artificial lift pumps at the Peregrino oil field. The Kiewit subsidiary INEIGHT has IIoT services focused on power plant constructors but could expand into services for the power plants themselves.

AECOM:  McIlvaine has been conducting webinars for BHE on NO_x removal. AECOM has been supporting BHE with analysis of options and has suggested using technology successfully employed in the refining industry for NO_x oxidation ahead of the scrubber. A novel hybrid reductant may also be employed for front end SNCR. If these combinations are successful, the AECOM project manager has the potential to take this knowledge to the many plants in Asia who are struggling with new NO_x limits.

AECOM has complete IIoT programs for leak detection including visibility across the operating asset fleet, automatic alerts, and IT integration with security safety, and environmental regulations.

MPR:  has CFD analyses which will help plants removing SO₂ with direct sorbent injection. The program is designed to make trouble shooting much more cost effective. MPR has developed expertise in wind turbine drive train technology and could be providing remote services to wind power generators around the world.

Black & Veatch:  tells clients that optimization is the next step after digitization and involves human action with all that data. Further B&V says that asset management is not about managing assets but creating value.

Trinity Consultants:  has unique expertise in analyzing the local and state environmental regulations and permitting which apply to a given power plant.

McIlvaine has set up a beta IIoT site including all the plants operated by BHE. 4S01 Berkshire Hathaway Energy Supplier and Utility Connect

There are a number of relevant air and water permits and rulings which are applicable to each plant. Enough of these were posted in the BHE site to determine that:

·       A continuous posting of permits, rulings, case histories, and component information on each plant could be cost effective.

·       The present practice where power plants use the local consultant to analyze the local situation and then a variety of other consultants to aggregate and utilize the data leaves much to be desired.

·       A system wide approach to information gathering for each plant will facilitate IIoW empowered IIoT.

·       Trinity Consultants would be in a position to aggregate and interpret the regulatory data for each U.S. power plant.

Laborelec (ENGIE) is leveraging the knowledge of the Belgian electricity industry to offer both laboratory services and consulting. It is providing condition monitoring for turbines in the Middle East. It provided water chemistry solutions for an Asian power plant with problems. It analyzed air inlet filter operations at 40 U.S. plants for one operator. This group is showing the niche expertise to take this from the one-on-one level to the one on industry level.

The consultant role in IIoT and Remote O&M as well as IIoW empowerment is evolving. You can track this evolution in N031 Industrial IOT and Remote O&M

Free Webinars on IIoT and Remote O&M

The Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) and remote operation and maintenance will combine to create a market worth $1.4 trillion in 2030 according to the latest forecasts in N031 Industrial IOT and Remote O&M Market Report published by the McIlvaine Company. A series of nine webinars will provide some of the conclusions from the report. The presentations will be followed by a discussion period where participants can share their views and ask questions. Each webinar will be scheduled on a Thursday at 10:00 a.m. CDT. Participation is free.

Schedule

February 23:  Gas Turbine, Reciprocating Engine IIoT and Remote O&M. This industry segment has made the most progress in leveraging IIoT for remote O&M services. Turbine and component suppliers have remote monitoring centers operating around the clock. This session will explain why a 2030 forecast of $30 billion is predicted. It will answer the question as to how established technologies such as remote vibration analysis will be combined with analytics and decision making relative to all components in the balance of the plant.

March 2:  Coal-Fired Power IIoT and Remote O&M:  This session will build on nine hours of webinars recently conducted on optimizing NO_x emissions, 42 years of data analysis in Coal-fired Power Plant Decisions and a previous McIlvaine report entitled Information Technology in Electricity Generation. It will discuss the basis for an $80 billion 2030 forecast for coal-fired IIoT and remote O&M with a focus on the potential for utilities in developing countries to take advantage of the world's expertise through services from international consortia.

March 9:  Pump IIoT & Remote O&M. The potential for pump suppliers to add $20 billion of annual revenue and create new market routes for pumps valued at $25 billion will be discussed along with the evolution from vibration and lube oil monitoring to maximizing efficiency and minimizing maintenance costs. Based on the research in N019 Pumps World Market the session will discuss the various routes to market (system suppliers, third party O&M providers, and direct to end users).

March 16:  Industrial Valve IIoT & Remote O&M. The role industrial valves will play in expanding the market to $1.4 trillion while generating $20 billion in additional valve revenues and carving new routes for valve sales worth $30 billion will be explained. Insights from N028 Industrial Valves: World Market will be leveraged to predict the evolution of smart valves, valve inventory management programs such as being offered by GE, integration with third party programs and the role for subject matter experts.

March 23:  Oil and Gas IIoT and Remote O&M. McIlvaine predicts this market will grow to   $168 billion by 2030. Insights from N049 Oil, Gas, Shale and Refining Markets and Projects will be used to describe the present disparate programs and the eventual amalgamation to interactive systems using open platform software. Safety, security, maintenance, environment, and efficiency will be considered. The webinar will include uses in the upstream, midstream and downstream segments of the industry.

March 30:  Filtration and Separation IIoT and Remote O&M. The basis for a $350 billion 2030 market will be provided. The broad range of applications as delineated in many market reports "Markets" will be analyzed. This includes thousands of applications including ones as diverse as vibration monitoring and polymer dosage for centrifuges to filter condition monitoring for stationary IC engines. Clarcor already provides a total filtration solution package which includes replacing of all filters in a plant as needed. Donaldson offers a filter program for off road engines.

April 6:  Water & Wastewater IIoT and Remote O&M. Municipal water and wastewater treatment systems are challenged by long pipelines subject to leakage, corrosion, odors and blockages as well as by maintaining valves and pumps in remote locations. New wireless technologies are already enthusiastically embraced. McIlvaine will provide insights based on several of its services:   62EI North American Municipal Wastewater Treatment Facilities and People Database and 67EI North American Public Water Plants and People as well as on ongoing private studies on subjects such as aeration compressors. This market is projected to reach $168 billion in 2030.

April 13:  Air Pollution Control. The basis for a $60 billion 2030 IIoT forecast will be explained. Continuous emissions monitoring systems are now required in many industries in many countries. Typically minute by minute emissions of each pollutant are transmitted to owners as well as enforcement agencies. There is a huge potential to integrate the information from these systems with combustion and other process optimization systems to operate plants based on both total economic and environmental cost of ownership. McIlvaine will be providing insights based on included in N027 FGD Market and Strategies, N035 NOx Control World Market, N021 World Fabric Filter and Element Market, N018 Electrostatic Precipitator World Market. Remote operation and maintenance of electrostatic precipitators is well established and successful. This success is a model for other IIoT initiatives and will therefore be examined in detail.

Subsequent webinars. The following subjects will be included in future IIoT webinars:

• Subjects:  cleanrooms, ultrapure water, water & wastewater treatment chemicals
• Industries:  chemical, pharmaceutical, mining, semiconductor, pulp & paper, food

Brief analyses of these opportunities are found at:

• $125 Billion/yr. Power Plant IIoT Instrumentation, Software and Service Opportunity
• IIoT and the Stainless Steel Industry  http://www.mcilvainecompany.com/Decision_Tree/subscriber/Tree/DescriptionTextLinks/SS_world_article_1-19-2017.pdf
• $5 Billion Cleanroom Market will be Increasingly Impacted by IIoT Technologies
• Industrial IoT and Remote Operations and Maintenance Will Generate Revenues In Excess Of $1.4 Trillion

Recorded Interviews. Periodic recorded webinars with suppliers, consultants and end users will be linked from this page as well as being displayed in Hot Topic Hour recordings. Much of the future sensor input will be related to environmental performance. This in turn is tied to the regulations. Recently we conducted an interview with Patricia Scroggin of Burns & McDonnell. You can view it at  Meeting the new ELG and CCR requirements- options explained by Patricia Scroggin  (Interview Dated: 1/20/2017).

To register for the webinars, click on: Hot Topic Hour Schedule and Recordings

Detailed Forecasting of Markets, Prospects and Projects

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Bob McIlvaine
President
McIlvaine Company
Ph: 847-784-0012 ext. 112
www.mcilvainecompany.com