The New Approach to Market Forecasting For Flow Control and Treatment Products
Traditional forecasting of markets for air, gas, water and liquid flow control and treatment products has been the top down approach. The total market is determined and then segmented by industry, product and location. There are two problems with this approach:
• The numbers are not reliable
• There is not the granularity needed to set quotas and promotional expenditures
The bottom-up approach is far better. The problem is that it is necessary to determine the quantities in as many as 50,000 niches. Prior to the digital age this was prohibitively expensive. Today it is a money saver. The granularity offers the potential to make a decision about selling an on/off ball valve to the pharmaceutical industry in Germany as follows.
Question Answer
What is the valve growth projection for Germany? Valve growth over the next five years will be $140 million from present $1.9 billion.
The biggest potential for the new valve is pharmaceutical. How big is this market? Will grow by $4 million to $61 million/yr by 2019.
The product is a globe valve, so how big is this segment? German pharmaceutical globe market will grow by $1 million/yr to $15 million in 2019.
It will primarily be used for on/off and not control, so how big is this segment? On/Off market will grow to $13 million by 2019.
The new valve is used mostly in processing and not water, so how big is this segment? Processing segment is 60 percent for a 2019 market of $7.8 million.
What will be the sales for new plants? Only 30 percent or $2.3 million.
The new product should capture 15 percent share. Target is $345.000/yr by 2019.
Should capture 5 percent of the replacement market which is 70 percent. Target is 70 percent of 7.8 million x 5 percent=$273,000 for a total annual sales of $618,000.
These detailed forecasts provide the unique opportunity to validate the accuracy of the forecasts for the total market. Who better than the local salesman to evaluate the forecast for his products and its reliability.
McIlvaine has this level of granularity in:
N064 Air/Gas/Water/Fluid Treatment and Control: World Market
N029 Ultrapure Water: World Market
N028 Industrial Valves: World Market
241I Nuclear Power Plant Valve Forecast and Analysis
N026 Water and Wastewater Treatment Chemicals: World Market
N031 Air and Water Monitoring: World Market
N024 Cartridge Filters: World Market
N020 RO, UF, MF World Market
N019 Pumps World Market
N006 Liquid Filtration and Media World Markets
N005 Sedimentation and Centrifugation World Markets
Cleanroom Hardware Sales to Exceed $4.6 Billion Next Year
Sales of hardware for cleanrooms will exceed $4.6 billion next year. Over 60 percent of this spending will be in East Asia. This is the latest forecast in World Cleanroom Markets published by the McIlvaine Company. (www.mcilvainecompany.com)
Cleanroom Hardware Sales ($ Million)
World Region 2015
Total 4,635
Africa 35
CIS 46
East Asia 2,780
Eastern Europe 33
Middle East 76
NAFTA 877
South & Central America 88
West Asia 95
Western Europe 605
The semiconductor and flat panel displays will account for just under 25 percent of the total. The semiconductor industry is booming. The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) announced that worldwide sales of semiconductors reached $87 billion during the third quarter of 2014, an increase of 5.7 percent over the previous quarter and a jump of 8 percent compared to the third quarter of 2013.
China is increasing spending due to smart phone sales and infrastructure buildup. Smart wearable devices, cloud computing and smart cars are likely to contribute to a record semiconductor expenditure on cleanroom hardware in 2015.
Five foundries are going to be able to offer high-volume leading-edge foundry production over the next five years (TSMC, GlobalFoundries, UMC, Samsung and Intel). Samsung recently announced plans to build a $14.7 billion wafer fab in Pyeongtaek, a city south of Seoul. The new fab is slated to begin production in the second half of 2017.
The market is being driven by the need to upgrade and replace older facilities with new ones which can make chips with smaller line sizes and more memory per chip. As the line size decreases, the damage done by a particle of a given size increases. There is, therefore, a continuing need for cleaner space.
For more information on World Cleanroom Markets, click on: http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/markets/2-uncategorised/474-n6f-world-cleanroom-markets
Headlines for Utility E-Alert – November 21, 2014
UTILITY E-ALERT
#1201 – November 21, 2014
Table of Contents
COAL – US

• Final reconsideration of the Startup and Shutdown Provisions under MATS
COAL – WORLD

• SEPCO III to build 600 MW Power Plant in Mongolia
• Ayala to build Power Plants on Two Philippine Islands
• India planning More than 4000 MW of New Power Capacity in Bihar
• Mining Company ENRC Mozambique plans Power Plant in Mozambique
• 2400 MW Power Plant to be built in Egypt
• NTPC could become Joint Venture Partner in 2400 MW Odisha (India) Project
• 3600 MW Cuddalore Power Plant in Tamil Nadu, India, reportedly Canceled
• Andhra Pradesh (India) planning 3960 MW Power Project at Vempadu
• Wallerawang Power Plant closed in New South Wales (NSW), Australia

GAS/OIL – US

• 969 MW Combined Cycle Project in Oregon, Ohio, to use Siemens Technology
• Bechtel-Siemens to build 778 MW Stonewall Energy Power Plant
GAS/OIL – WORLD

• India plans to Bail Out Gas-fired Power Plants
• ABB receives Automation Contract for Batna, Algeria Gas Turbine Power Plant
NUCLEAR

• Construction at Flamanville Nuclear Power Plant Delayed
• Alternate Energy Holdings Executives Indicted
• Indonesia ponders Nuclear Power
• Market for Nuclear Valves to Exceed $2.4 Billion in 2017
• EDF looking at Saudi Arabia for possible Stake in Hinkley Point Nuclear Power Project in UK
• DTE Fermi One Step Closer to License
• Bolivia and France to cooperate on Nuclear Technology
BUSINESS

• Texas Electricity Prices could rise by 20 Percent if Carbon Emissions Slashed
• Solvay Chemicals to grind Sodium Products at Owensboro Facility
• The Global Warming Debate can be resolved at least Temporarily with a Plan to Please Everyone
HOT TOPIC HOUR

• Upcoming Hot Topic Hours

For more information on the Utility Tracking System, click on: http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/databases/2-uncategorised/89-42ei
McIlvaine Hot Topic Hour Registration
On Thursday at 10:00 a.m. Central time, McIlvaine hosts a 90 minute web meeting on important energy and pollution control subjects. Power webinars are free for subscribers to either Power Plant Air Quality Decisions or Utility Tracking System. The cost is $300.00 for non-subscribers.
See below for information on upcoming Hot Topic Hours. We welcome your input relative to suggested additions.

December
18 Boiler Feedwater Treatment
Click here for the Subscriber and Power Plant Owner/Operator Registration Form
Click here for the Non-Subscribers Registration Form
Click here for the Free Hot Topic Hour Registration Form
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Bob McIlvaine
President
847-784-0012 ext 112
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
www.mcilvainecompany.com