World Coal-fired Capacity To Increase By 60%
World coal capacity is expected to reach approximately 2,500 GW by the end of 2020, an increase of nearly 60 percent from 2008.
East Asia will lead the way with the biggest total gain in capacity, while West Asia will enjoy the largest percentage growth, approximately 300 percent. These are the latest forecasts in Coal-Fired Boilers: World Analysis and Forecast published by the McIlvaine Company.
Coal capacity in Western Europe is presently more than double compared to West Asia, but by 2020 the capacities are projected to be nearly equal. East Asia will operate nearly half (49%) of the world’s coal-fired power plant capacity by 2020. China is already the world’s largest operator of coal-fired plants. It passed the U.S. in total capacity two years ago. In 2007, China started construction of new coal-fired power plants with a net capacity of 93,000 MW.
The projected capacity through 2012 is based on the specific plant plans which are tracked by McIlvaine in its World Power Generation Projects. Capacity projections for later years are based on the odds assessment for important future events.
IMPORTANT EVENT ODDS:
|
Natural gas price exceeds $10 /MMBtu |
10 to l |
|
Major greenhouse warming catastrophe |
1 to 1000 |
|
Electricity demand continues to rise at current pace |
5 to 1 |
|
Renewables become competitive in the near term |
1-50 |
|
Nuclear supply problem is overcome |
1-20 |
The longer range projections are dependent on many future events whose course can only be estimated. This forecasts assumes odds of 10-1 that natural gas price will remain above $10/MMBtu. The odds of a major greenhouse warming catastrophe occurring in the next 10 years are very low. Electricity demand will continue to rise along with GDP. Wind and solar will remain small contributors due to both price and supply capacity. Nuclear will carve out a niche but is not capable of rapidly expanding its contribution
For more information on Coal-fired Boilers: World Analysis and Forecast, click on http://www.mcilvainecompany.com/brochures/energy.html#n043 .
Bob McIlvaine
847-784-0012