Coal-fired Power Generation will continue to be the Leader Through 2020
Driven by the expansion of coal-fired power generation in China and India, coal will continue to be the first choice for new power generation. Between 2009 and 2020, 800 GW of coal-fired capacity will be added compared to less than 500 GW for gas-fired and 55 GW for nuclear. This is the latest forecast in Fossil & Nuclear Power Generation: World Analysis & Forecast published by the McIlvaine Company. (www.mcilvainecompany.com)
|
Generation Type |
2009 GW |
2020 GW |
% Increase Total |
% Increase Annual |
|
Nuclear |
375 |
430 |
15 |
1.4 |
|
Coal |
1600 |
2400 |
50 |
4.5 |
|
Gas |
823 |
1300 |
58 |
5.3 |
|
Total |
2798 |
4130 |
48 |
4.4 |
Coal is starting from a larger base so the expansion rate will only be 4.5% vs. 5.3% for gas. Nuclear has a bright future beyond 2020 but the market is developing slowly. Wind is growing at double-digit rates. Offshore wind is growing at more than 20%/yr but the problem is that the base is tiny. Nevertheless, wind could account for 30% of European power generation by 2030. But in the time frame through 2020 only nuclear, coal, gas, and hydro will have significant impact.
The reliance on coal is seen in a comparison of China and the U.S. in terms of electricity output.
GWH by Fuel Type 2008
|
Fuel Type |
U.S. GWH |
U.S. % |
China GWH |
China % |
|
Coal |
2000 |
49.0 |
2500 |
82.9 |
|
Gas |
839 |
20.5 |
14 |
0.5 |
|
Nuclear |
816 |
20.0 |
3 |
0.1 |
|
Hydro |
317 |
7.8 |
435 |
14.5 |
|
Biomass |
49 |
1.1 |
1 |
0.0 |
|
Waste |
23 |
0.6 |
54 |
1.8 |
|
Geothermal |
16 |
0.4 |
1 |
0.0 |
|
Solar |
1 |
0.0 |
1 |
0.0 |
|
Wind |
26 |
0.6 |
6 |
0.2 |
|
Other |
2 |
0.0 |
1 |
0.0 |
|
Total |
4089 |
100 |
3016 |
100 |
China is generating more electricity from coal than is the U.S. On the other hand, it has no other significant source of power other than hydro. It leads the world in both wind and solar activity but it is doing so from a very low base. It has an active nuclear program and will account for many of the nuclear reactors built prior to 2020, but this is still a relatively small amount of capacity.
In Europe and the U.S. the climate change concerns continue to slow usage of coal for new generation. However, one encouraging development is the co-location of cellulosic biomass and coal-firing. Great Rivers Energy is moving forward with this combination at its new Spiritwood facility. The carbon footprint of the combination is less than for a stand-alone gas-fired power plant. The reason is the use of waste steam by the ethanol plant and waste biomass by the coal-fired power plant.
For more information on Fossil & Nuclear Power Generation: World Analysis & Forecast
(Formerly World Coal-Fired), click on: http://www.mcilvainecompany.com/brochures/energy.html#n043.
Bob McIlvaine
President
847 784 0012 ext 112
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com