Asian Ultrapure Water System Sales to Exceed $3 Billion By 2016
Double-digit annual growth will result in an ultrapure water system and
consumables market in Asia which will exceed $3 billion /yr by 2016. This
is the prediction in
Ultrapure Water: World Market
published by the McIlvaine Company. (www.mcilvainecompany.com)
Asian growth will exceed the other continents in the following applications:
·
Coal-fired Power
·
Nuclear Power
·
Photovoltaic
·
Flat Panel Displays
·
Memory
·
Semiconductors
·
Pharmaceuticals
·
Bottled Drinks
Asia will spend more for coal-fired ultrapure water systems than ROW combined.
China is building ultra supercritical boilers which require the most expensive
ultrapure water systems. India, Indonesia and other countries in the
region are also planning large increases in coal-fired power generation.
Asia is the one region which has significant nuclear activity. Nearly all
the photovoltaic manufacturing is taking place in Asia. The same is true
for memory and flat panel displays. Taiwan has become the leading
semiconductor manufacturer with China in pursuit. All these industries
require ultrapure water at each processing step to remove the etching solutions
and other chemicals used to form the lines and shapes.
The one area where Asia has not gained much ground is proprietary
pharmaceuticals. However, Asia is the selected location for generic
pharmaceutical manufacture. International drug companies are building very
substantial research and production facilities in China and India. The growth in
generics is higher than proprietary pharmaceuticals.
Asia is also expanding its manufacture of bottled water and other drinks
where the source water has to be purified beyond the level of normal drinking
water. This application does not require ultrapure water at the highest
level. This is defined as water
that has 18 Megohm-cm or greater specific resistance, with other attributes such
as bacterial count, TOC (total organic carbon), pyrogen and/or endotoxin, etc.
However, bottled water producers are using purification and monitoring
techniques required by the traditional ultrapure water users.
For more information on
Ultrapure Water: World Market,
click on:
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/markets/27-water/447-n029-ultrapure-water-world-markets
The Future of Oil, Gas and Coal Dependent on Perception and Competition
Gas-to-liquids plants can cost up to $15 billion. Coal-to-liquids plants
cost even more. Investments in these plants is highly dependent on the perceived
demand. This factor, in turn, is a function of attractiveness of
alternatives such as wind, solar, electrical energy storage, tar sands, coal bed
methane, underground coal gasification, shale gas, shale oil, oil shale, small
modular nuclear, small scale LNG, advanced coal-fired power plants, etc.
All these alternatives are continually assessed in two publications:
Oil, Gas, Shale and Refining Markets and Projects
and Fossil and Nuclear Power Generation: World Analysis and Forecast
published by the McIlvaine Company. (www.mcilvainecompany.com)
The biggest variable in the mix among these alternatives is coal conversion.
The proven coal reserves (defined as presently known and economically minable)
is 860 billion tons. This quantity would supply the world at present consumption
levels for another 100 years. But coal has a much bigger potential than just
this identified resource. Consider that there is one trillion tons of coal
under the North Sea. Billions of dollars are being invested in underground
gasification technology to inject steam and oxygen and extract gas. CO2
generated in the process would be used to increase yield of shrinking North Sea
oil reservoirs.
China is well underway with a program to convert coal to gas, fuels and
chemicals at a rate equal to the entire U.S. shale gas program. If the
projects in the planning stage are implemented, China will utilize 20 percent of
the world’s annual coal consumption just to make gas and liquid products.
The ultimate mix between all these energy sources will be be determined by
perception and competition. In a chess game, the winner does a better job
of perceiving the moves of the loser. Among the losers to date are owners of LNG
regasification terminals in the U.S. They did not perceive the moves of
shale gas extraction companies. However, if they convert these terminals
to export LNG and build others to do so, then power plants which are relying on
large quantities of cheap gas will be the losers. So both the quality of the
competition and the perception of the opponent are factors in success.
Some of the important inputs include:
•
The differential price between diesel and LNG is a critical market factor.
•
Crude represents 65 percent of final fuel price.
•
The disparity between oil and gas prices on an equivalent Btu basis is a
function of access.
•
Gas is not economically transported overseas except as LNG, whereas oil is
economically transferred.
•
Even if the price of oil drops, the market for gas is not impacted if gas prices
also drop proportionately.
•
Until the U.S. has the capability to sell large quantities of LNG offshore,
the price disparity will continue.
•
Investors and gas producers are expecting gas in the U.S. to remain at $5/MMBtu.
•
China expects to make gas from coal at less than $5/MMBtu.
•
Shale gas operators are expected to keep expanding as long as oil is above
$70/bbl.
•
Oil companies such as Chevron are bullish on increased oil and gas demand and
are continuing with high levels of investment.
•
Saudi Arabia is able to increase or decrease output to maintain price levels.
Many other producers need price levels above $90 barrel to keep their economies
healthy.
•
The oil reserves of Middle East producers are less than 50 years.
•
The Saudi production cost is only $6/bbl.
•
The Saudi oil value is much higher than $100/barrel because it is a resource
which is dwindling at 4 percent per year.
•
The result is that the Saudi supply will be adjusted to balance long term value
and short term needs.
•
Stranded gas and other sources of LNG where the acquisition price of the gas is
negative will be unaffected by oil fluctuations between $80-110 bbl.
•
Safety perceptions of nuclear energy vary widely from country to country.
•
Environmental perceptions including climate change also vary widely between the
developed and developing economies.
All these factors will continue to make projections about the production from
each of these resources very speculative.
For more information on Oil,
Gas, Shale and Refining Markets and Projects,
click on:
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/markets/28-energy/471-n049.
For more information on
Fossil and Nuclear Power Generation: World Analysis and Forecast,
click on:
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/markets/2-uncategorised/113-n043.
Headlines for Utility E-Alert –October 17, 2014
UTILITY E-ALERT
Table of Contents
COAL – US
COAL – WORLD
GAS/OIL – US
GAS/OIL – WORLD
CO2
NUCLEAR
BUSINESS
HOT TOPIC HOUR
For more information on the Utility Tracking System, click on:
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/databases/2-uncategorised/89-42ei.
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a 90 minute web meeting on important energy and pollution control subjects. Power
webinars are free for subscribers to either Power Plant Air Quality
Decisions or Utility Tracking System. The cost is
$300.00 for
non-subscribers.
See below for information on upcoming Hot Topic Hours. We welcome your input
relative to suggested additions.
DATE |
SUBJECT |
|
23 |
Dry Scrubbing |
|
November |
||
6 |
Coal-fired Power Plant NOx
Reduction Innovations |
|
13 |
Power Plant Cooling |
|
December |
||
18 |
Boiler Feedwater Treatment |
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----------
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Bob McIlvaine
President
847-784-0012 ext 112
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
www.mcilvainecompany.com