WELCOME
Weekly selected highlights in flow control, treatment and combustion from the
many McIlvaine publications.
• Briefs
• $1 Trillion Combust, Flow and Treat Market in 2018
• Advanced Forecasting of the $12 billion On/Off Ball Valve Market and the $ 1
Trillion Combust, Flow and Treat Market
Briefs
Our Municipal Wastewater webinar is slated for March 28. You can register at:
Free Market Webinars
The IIoT and Remote O&M report was just updated with tens of thousands of
forecasts for Guide, Control and Measure for each industry in each country. The
Guide market which includes process management, data analytics and subject
matter expertise will grow from $48 billion in 2018 to just under $64 billion in
2022.
Guide Forecast $ millions World-wide
Industry 2018 2022
Chemical 6003.39 8323.47
Electronics 232.03 305.2
Food 2033.96 2787.18
Iron and Steel 2069.46 2499.65
Metals 495.5 672.99
Mining 816.84 1159.18
Oil and Gas 10926.13 14437.21
Other Electronics 278.36 387.26
Other Industries 5078.25 6836.78
Pharmaceutical 1405.05 1842.25
Power 4423.91 5731.69
Pulp and Paper 2376.01 2903.27
Refinery 6566.51 8758.39
Wastewater 2325.99 2966.24
Water 3013.67 4293.17
Total 48045.06 63903.93
For more information on IIoT and Remote O&M click on N031 Industrial IoT and
Remote O&M
$1 Trillion Combust, Flow and Treat Market in 2018
Power, water and industrial plants will spend $1 trillion in 2018 for equipment
and services for the combustion, treatment and measurement of gases, liquids and
free flowing solids. This expenditure will equal 1% of World GDP and has been a
major part of human progress ever since primitive man started utilizing fire.
McIlvaine Company multi-client reports cover nearly half the market while
private consulting addresses the balance. The reports cover hardware such as air
and water treatment equipment but also consumables such as treatment chemicals,
cartridges and membranes.
The multi-client reports contain millions of forecasts. They include forecasts
for each product in each industry through 2022 in 80 separate countries and sub
regions. The multi-client valve report provides separate forecasts for each type
of control and on off valve resulting in more than 50,000 forecasts. These
forecasts are continually updated. This is necessary because regulations can
cause sudden major changes in the forecast.
The IIoT market is the largest and fastest growing. This includes controls and
automation including a "Guide" category with process management and data
analytics software along with third party advice from subject matter experts.
The consumables markets such as cartridges and treatment chemicals are less
volatile than the equipment markets. The most volatile markets are FGD and DeNOx
for the power industry. Each of these markets has fluctuated from $2 billion to
$15 billion depending on the regulatory impact. However, most countries of the
world now have retrofitted this technology. So when India and Asean nations
complete their programs the market will become mostly one of repair and replace.
2018 Flow and Treat Market - $ Billions
Group Individual Products within the Group
IIIoT Control Guide Measure Liquids Measure
Air/Gases Measure
Powders
Valves Ball Butterfly Gate Globe
Three Others
Pumps Centrifugal Diaphragm Reciprocating Rotary
Cross Flow
Membranes RO Equipment Micro Equipment UF Equipment Membranes
(3 segments)
Cartridges Carbon Non-woven Membrane Metal String Wound
Sedimentation Clarifier Disk Decanter DAF Two Others
Water Chemicals Corrosion
Inhibitors Flocculants
Coagulants Scale
Inhibitors Oxidizers
Biocides Six Others
Fabric Filters Systems Equipment Bags Media
Scrubbers Absorber Adsorber Particulate Dry Scrubber 2 Others
Electrostatic
Precipitators Dry
Precipitators Wet
Precipitators There is also a third party $billion O&M market
FGD Wet FGD Dry $7 billion market for repair and replace
DeNOX Catalyst Reagent Very volatile market. 2018 is a valley
Thermal Thermal incineration RTO Catalytic Oxidizers Catalyst
Compressors Centrifugal Reciprocating Screw
Fans and Blowers Centrifugal Axial Rotary Multi Stage Turbo
Color Code $ billions
>100 > 20 >10 >5 >4 >2 >1 <1
One major process not included in the chart is heat exchange. It is a major
investment for the power, chemical, food, refining and a number of other
industries. Biological treatment is a substantial market in wastewater and was
not included. Reaction processes in the chemical industry were not included in
the chart but are part of the $ trillion market.
The rapidly developing Industrial Internet of Things empowered by the Industrial
Internet of Wisdom is changing the industry. The connection of knowledge and
people and products makes it more important to understand the interaction
between blowers and scrubbers, or pumps and filters. Automation and control is
expanding faster than the hardware. A number of hardware suppliers are expanding
their scope to provide the wisdom about their products with edge computer
technology providing a gateway to central systems.
The explosion of knowledge also allows companies to afford advanced forecasting.
For example it is now possible to forecast not only ball valve purchases for gas
pipelines but to further segment by trunnion vs floating support, top vs side
entry, and forecast each of the sizes from 2-36"
More information on the individual market reports is found at
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/markets
Information on the Advanced Forecasting is described in a 5 step program covered
at www.mcilvainecompany.com
For more information contact Bob McIlvaine at rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
847 784 0012
Advanced Forecasting of the $12 billion On/Off Ball Valve Market and the $ 1
Trillion Combust, Flow and Treat Market
Advanced Forecasting can be defined as
1. Bottoms up forecasting which provides accuracy supported by facts and
statistics
2. Detailed segmentation so that the forecasts match the individual sales
responsibilities
3. Process for continuing feedback, review and updates
4. Provision for impact of innovative product developments
5. Forecasts of purchasers by each major prospect
Advanced Forecasting can be layered. In the top layer McIlvaine provides
forecasts for 80 countries and regions for the next 5 years in more than 20
industries and for hundreds of products. More than 1 million forecasts in the
Combust, Flow and Treat industries are continuously updated.
In addition, McIlvaine provides forecasts for generic products for each large
purchaser which adds another 20,000 forecasts.
This top layer is adequate for most regional decisions for product combinations.
A second layer provides the forecasts for each territory. A third layer segments
the markets in each territory for each special product.
The top layer of forecasts is contained in the McIlvaine market reports as shown
at http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/markets
The second and third levels of segmentation are included in specific consulting
contracts.
In the top layer the local salesman has a forecast total for all the products
for which he is responsible along with forecasts for the large customers with
home offices in his territory. Additional layers can segment by specific
products. In one case the market for pipeline ball valves was further segmented
by trunnion vs floating, side entry vs top entry and by sizes from 2" to 30".
The market can also be segmented to include forecasts for purchases by any
company purchasing some meaningful amount. If 90% of the dollar volume is by
customers with purchases of more than $100,000 per year and the average purchase
is $300,000 then purchases for 3.3 million buyers would need to be determined in
order to identify the purchasers for 90% of the $ 1 trillion total market.
However, since most companies concentrate on certain products and industries and
may not need to identify purchasers of less than $1 million per year, then
forecasts for a few thousand companies would be adequate.
Let's take ball valves as an example of Advanced Forecasting. 2018 Valve
purchases will be $62 billion. Purchases of ball valves will be $12 billion.
This is the largest of 8 categories of valves. The market is further segmented
by control vs on/off. Since a small percent of ball valves are used for control,
the on-off valve market is over $11 billion. Of this total the power market
represents $1 billion. This is further split by type of fuel with 50% coal, 25%
oil and gas, 15% nuclear and 10% other.
Valve Market 2018
Segment Revenue $ billions 2018
Valve Market 2018 62
Ball Valves 12
On/Off Ball Valves 11
Power On/Off Ball Valves 1
Oil and Gas Power On/Off Ball Valves .25
Nuclear On/Off Ball Valves .20
Other Power On/Off Ball Valves .05
Coal On/Off Ball Valves .50
The nuclear ball valve market is concentrated with just five purchasers
accounting for 34 percent of the market.
Nuclear Power Plant Combust, Flow and Treat Purchases 2018 - $ millions
World EDF Bechtel KEPCO Exelon
Percent 100 20 10 5 4
Guide 1400 280 140 70 56
Control 2200 440 220 110 88
Measure 1200 240 120 60 48
Valves 2000 400 200 100 80
Ball valves on/off 200 40 20 10 8
Macrofiltration (Belt Presses, Sand Filters) 200 40 20 10 8
Pumps 1100 220 110 55 44
Treatment Chemicals 1400 280 140 70 56
Sedimentation and Centrifugation 300 60 30 15 12
Variable Speed Drives and Motors 600 120 60 30 24
RO/UF/MF Cross Flow Membrane Systems 200 40 20 10 8
Air Purification and Protection 400 80 40 20 16
Total 11,000 2200 1100 550 440
The coal fired boiler ball valve market is less concentrated than nuclear but
still 15 companies make 56 percent of the purchases.
Coal Fired Power Plant Valve Purchases 2018 $ millions
Company Country % Coal Fired Power Plant of On/Off Ball Valve Purchases 2018
Coal Fired Power Plant On/Off Ball Valve Purchases
2018
$ Millions
AEP U.S. 1.1 5.5
BWE U.S. 0.6 3
Datang China 7 35
Duke U.S. 1 5
Enel Italy 1 5
Eskom South Africa 6 30
*Guodian China 7.5 37.5
Huaneng China 9 45
Huadian China 6 30
J-Power Japan 0.5 2.5
National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC) India 7 35
NRG U.S. 1 5
*Shenhua China 4.5 22.5
Southern U.S. 1 5
Uniper Germany 0.6 3
Vietnam Power (EVN) Vietnam 2 10
Sub Total 55.8 279
Other 44.2 221
TOTAL 100 500
* These two companies are now combined creating a company with 12% of the
purchases
Many of the valve decisions are increasingly being made by OEMS, and EPCs. For
new systems the end user will not often directly purchase these components.
Large power plant system suppliers will typically purchase or specify the
specific brand and product.
As a result, a few thousand people in 31 corporations will make more than 70
percent of the purchase decisions for valves.
Decision Makers for Coal Fired Power Plant Valves Percent
Top 16 operators - Direct 40
Top 16 EPCs and OEMs for the top 16 operators 12
Smaller EPCS for top 16 operators 3.8
Top 16 operators sub total 55.8
Top 16 EPC's for smaller operators 15
Top 31 sub total 70.8
Purchases by smaller EPCs for smaller operators 9
Smaller operators - Direct 20.2
Total 100
Municipal wastewater treatment plant operators world-wide are anticipated to
spend $64 billion for selected flow and treat products and services this year.
The majority of these purchases will be made by just 200 operators and 30
engineering/consulting firms.
Suez is supplying more than 30 million people with water and wastewater
services. They are also designing plants and purchasing flow and treat products
for new as well as existing plants. Beijing Enterprises Water Group (BEWG)
operates more than 400 wastewater plants in China and other countries and is
also involved in design build projects where they would specify flow and treat
products. Chicago MSD operates seven wastewater reclamation plants. It is also
expanding its scope by encouraging nearby food processors to send waste to the
plant for conversion to biogas. This will increase its sludge processing,
compressor and air pollution control purchases. Los Angeles Sanitation's
operations are approximately half the size of those in Chicago.
2018 Municipal Wastewater Purchases ($ millions)
World
U.S. Suez
Jacobs
CH2M BEWG Los Angeles Chicago MSD
Guide 5280 1100 106 63 33 11 22
Control 8640 1800 173 104 54 18 36
Measure 4320 900 86 52 27 9 18
Valves 4800 1000 96 58 30 10 20
On/Off Ball Valves 600 125 12 7 4 1 2
Macrofiltration (belt presses, sand filters) 2400 500 48 29 15 5 10
Pumps 9600 2000 192 115 60 20 40
Treatment Chemicals 6720 1400 134 81 42 14 28
Sedimentation and Centrifugation 4320 900 86 52 27 9 18
Variable Speed Drives and Motors 4800 1000 96 58 30 10 20
Turbines, Fans, and Compressors 10560 2200 211 127 66 22 44
RO/UF/MF Cross Flow Membrane Systems 1200 250 24 14 7 3 6
Air Pollution Control 960 200 19 12 6 2 4
Total 63,600 13,250 1271 765 397 133 266
The food market is much more fragmented than most of the other markets.
Cartridge expenditures this year by the industry will be $591 million. The
largest purchasers will each buy 1% or less of the total. The industry will
spend $522 million for on off ball valves which is slightly less than for
cartridges.
Subject ADM Anheuser
Busch Cargill Coca Cola Con Agra
Food On/Off Ball Valves 2.6 3.5 1.8 2.6 0.9
The top layer the market reports provide forecasts for 550 purchasers. More
extensive Advance Consulting is available on a contractual basis. Advanced
Forecasting is also the first step in a 5-step business program which is
discussed at www.mcilvainecompany.com.