WELCOME
Weekly selected highlights in flow control, treatment and combustion from the
many McIlvaine publications.
• See us Next Week at the Filtration Conference October 10-12
• Combust, Flow and Treat Markets in Nuclear Power will be Covered in October 18
Webinar
• Five Companies will be Responsible for 39 Percent of the Combust, Flow and
Treat Purchases in the Nuclear Power Sector Next Year
• Subject Matter Experts need to be Cultivated and Supported
See us Next Week at the Filtration Conference October 10-12
Filtration 2017 will be held at Navy Pier in Chicago where 1500 attendees will
be able to view 140 exhibitor stands in addition to a number of cutting edge
presentations. Tuesday, October 10 will be devoted to presentations. There will
be a session on IIoT where Herve Buisson, Vice President of Veolia Water will
cover some of the water industry's IIoT initiatives and probe the ways that the
industry can create smarter filters.
Frank Stamatatos, President of SecureAire Inc will address IIoT and
• Explore the relationship between the Internet, Filtration Technologies, and
their application in critical environments.
• Review the current Internet application categories and how they fit in with
Filtration.
• Describe SecureAire's method for applying the IoT in controlling IAQ in
critical environments.
• Offer provocative thoughts on the future of the Filtration Industry with IoT.
The key note speaker at the Tuesday luncheon, Philip Whitaker, president, and
CEO of AAF Flanders, will provide insights on why there has been an upswing of
M&A activity involving filtration-related companies and what performance metrics
should current filtration companies focus on to enhance their value.
The exhibition will be open both Wednesday, October 11 and Thursday, October 12.
Mcilvaine personnel will be participating on all three days. If you want to talk
to Bob Mcilvaine you can reach him by cell phone at 847-226-2391 or by email at
847-784-0012 ext. 112
Combust, Flow and Treat Markets in Nuclear Power will be Covered in October 18
Webinar
McIlvaine will conduct a webinar on October 18 which will provide insights into
the market for combust flow and treat products and services for the nuclear
power industry. A number of specific product forecasts will be reviewed. These
are listed in in the next article. This webinar is free. You can register at
Free Market Webinars
Five Companies will be Responsible for 39 Percent of the Combust, Flow and Treat
Purchases in the Nuclear Power Sector Next Year
Global nuclear power generation is now predicted to grow by 2.3 percent per
annum out to 2035, mainly due to 11 percent annual growth in China. China's
operating nuclear generating capacity will double over the next five years under
the country's recently-published 13th Five-Year Plan.
Under that plan, over the next five years combust flow and treat hardware and
parts expenditures for existing plants next year will be four times greater than
for new plants. Guide, control, and measure hardware investments will be ten
times greater for existing plants than new ones in 2018. Service and remote
monitoring will be 50 times greater for existing plants than the new ones
(during the first year of operation).
Over 90 percent of the combust, flow and treat expenditures will be made by
fewer than 50 companies. Thirty-nine percent will be made by just three
operators and one supplier.
Bechtel has completed more than 74,000 megawatts of new nuclear generation
capacity, and has performed engineering and/or construction services on more
than 80 percent of nuclear plants in the United States and 150 worldwide. It
employs 2,200 nuclear professionals, which include approximately 150
internationally recognized technical specialists who have been published widely,
and have participated in developing industry standards and guidelines. It is a
major influence in ten percent of the combust, flow and treat decisions.
EDF has acquired Areva and then restructured the New NP reactor business to
allow minority share purchases by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Assystem. In
addition to operating 70,000 MW of nuclear power in France the company is
negotiating the sale of nuclear power plants in China, India, South Africa and
Saudi Arabia. Therefore, it is responsible for 20 percent of the nuclear
combust, flow and treat decisions.
Korea Electric Power (KEPCO) is a nuclear power operator with a capacity of
23,116 MW. It is operating 25 nuclear power units as of 2016 with five under
construction. It will make five percent of the combust, flow and treat
purchasing decisions in 2018.
Exelon has consolidated nuclear power operations in the U.S. and is now
operating plants with a capacity of over 19,000 MW. It will make four percent of
the 2018 combust, flow and treat decisions.
Nuclear Power Plant Combust, Flow and Treat Purchases 2018 - $ millions
World EDF Bechtel KEPCO Exelon
Percent 100 20 10 5 4
Guide 1400 280 140 70 56
Control 2200 440 220 110 88
Measure 1200 240 120 60 48
Valves 2000 400 200 100 80
Macrofiltration (Belt Presses, Sand Filters) 200 40 20 10 8
Pumps 1100 220 110 55 44
Treatment Chemicals 1400 280 140 70 56
Sedimentation and Centrifugation 300 60 30 15 12
Variable Speed Drives and Motors 600 120 60 30 24
RO/UF/MF Cross Flow Membrane Systems 200 40 20 10 8
Air Purification and Protection 400 80 40 20 16
Total 11,000 2200 1100 550 440
These estimates are very approximate and involve problems with the precise
defined scope. Orders are booked in one period. Revenue might be realized in a
series of succeeding periods. The purchasing decision may be shared between the
OEM, the EPC and the operator. Some decisions will be made at the plant level.
Others will be made at the corporate level. However, with the rapid deployment
of IIoT more and more decisions will be made at the corporate operator level.
Process management system companies will be an increasing influence.
Forecasts for the individual purchasers provide an important tool for suppliers.
Most already have separate sales efforts for the large purchasers. IIoT will
result in most decisions being made or specified at the corporate level. So, the
OEM sales effort will need to expand.
Forecasts of individual operator purchases are equivalent to pieces of a puzzle.
The sales forecast is built upon a picture puzzle for which many of the pieces
are missing. The more pieces which are fitted together, the more accurate the
picture becomes.
McIlvaine is providing combust, flow and treat forecasts for more than 550
companies. They appear in the various market reports. The guide, control and
measure forecasts for individual nuclear power generators and suppliers are
included in N031 Industrial IoT and Remote O&M The nuclear valve forecasts
appear in the Industrial Valves World Markets which also has a supplemental
analysis for the 5000 high performance valves in an Areva system. There are
market reports covering each of the subject areas found in MARKETS LINK. The
profiles of individual power companies and suppliers are included in the Utility
Tracking System 42EI Utility Tracking System.
Subject Matter Experts need to be Cultivated and Supported
In the IIoT world there will be the equivalent of millions of continuous
analyses on every combust, flow and treat product. There will be a great need to
evaluate all the voluminous information and make accurate conclusions as to the
total cost of ownership of each different product. This will require focused
efforts by thousands of experts each focusing on a niche so small that he will
be a one subject matter expert (SME).
In the Insights last week, we covered the Dry Scrubber Users Group and the
contribution SMEs at Primex are making not only to sort out the products with
the lowest cost of ownership but to help the suppliers (e.g. capless bag)
improve their products to fit the unique process circumstances created in dry
scrubbing.
Furthermore, these SMEs gained even more knowledge through the discussions at
the conference and the contributions made by other operators and suppliers.
McIlvaine has the following recommendations
• User groups such as DSUA need to be encouraged to provide international
coverage
• These groups can help create subject matter experts from among their ranks of
retirees.
• Consulting companies have an opportunity to develop SMEs and move away from
the concept that all employees need to generate billable hours on projects
• Suppliers will be well served to encourage their retirees to become SMEs
• User groups will need to become more focused over time. The first EPA FGD
conference in 1972 had about 20 attendees and covered every possible type of
scrubber. Now we have a user group devoted just to dry scrubbers and another one
just devoted to just hydrate injection. As the quantity of knowledge in each
subject area increases it will be necessary to provide more focused
interconnection.
Bob McIlvaine can answer questions and can be reached at:
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com 847-784-0012 ext. 112