WELCOME
Weekly selected highlights in flow control, treatment and combustion from the
many McIlvaine publications.
Briefs
Our Municipal Wastewater webinar is slated for March 28.
You can register at
The IIoT and Remote O&M report was
just updated with tens of thousands of forecasts for Guide, Control and Measure
for each industry in each country.
The Guide market which includes process management, data analytics and subject
matter expertise will grow from $48 billion in 2018 to just under $64 billion in
2022.
Guide Forecast $ millions World-wide
|
|
|||||||
|
Industry |
2018 |
2022 |
|||||
|
Chemical |
6003.39 |
8323.47 |
|||||
|
Electronics |
232.03 |
305.2 |
|||||
|
Food |
2033.96 |
2787.18 |
|||||
|
Iron and Steel |
2069.46 |
2499.65 |
|||||
|
Metals |
495.5 |
672.99 |
|||||
|
Mining |
816.84 |
1159.18 |
|||||
|
Oil and Gas |
10926.13 |
14437.21 |
|||||
|
Other Electronics |
278.36 |
387.26 |
|||||
|
Other Industries |
5078.25 |
6836.78 |
|||||
|
Pharmaceutical |
1405.05 |
1842.25 |
|||||
|
Power |
4423.91 |
5731.69 |
|||||
|
Pulp and Paper |
2376.01 |
2903.27 |
|||||
|
Refinery |
6566.51 |
8758.39 |
|||||
|
Wastewater |
2325.99 |
2966.24 |
|||||
|
Water |
3013.67 |
4293.17 |
|||||
|
Total |
48045.06 |
63903.93 |
|||||
|
||||||||
For more information on
IIoT and Remote O&M click on
N031 Industrial IoT and Remote O&M
$1 Trillion Combust, Flow and Treat Market in 2018
Power, water and industrial plants will spend $1 trillion in 2018 for equipment
and services for the combustion, treatment and measurement of gases, liquids and
free flowing solids. This expenditure will equal 1% of World GDP and has been a
major part of human progress ever since primitive man started utilizing fire.
McIlvaine Company multi-client reports cover nearly half the market while
private consulting addresses the balance. The reports cover hardware such as air
and water treatment equipment but also consumables such as treatment chemicals,
cartridges and membranes.
The multi-client reports contain millions of forecasts.
They include forecasts for each product
in each industry through 2022 in 80 separate countries and sub regions.
The multi-client valve report provides separate forecasts for each type
of control and on off valve resulting in more than 50,000 forecasts.
These forecasts are continually updated.
This is necessary because regulations can cause sudden major changes in
the forecast.
The IIoT market is the largest and fastest growing.
This includes controls and automation including a "Guide" category with
process management and data analytics software along with third party advice
from subject matter experts. The
consumables markets such as cartridges and treatment chemicals are less volatile
than the equipment markets. The
most volatile markets are FGD and DeNOx for the power industry.
Each of these markets has fluctuated from $2 billion to $15 billion
depending on the regulatory impact.
However, most countries of the world now have retrofitted this technology. So
when India and Asean nations complete their programs the market will become
mostly one of repair and replace.
2018 Flow and Treat Market - $ Billions |
|||||
Group |
Individual Products within the Group |
||||
IIIoT |
Control |
Guide |
Measure Liquids |
Measure
Air/Gases |
Measure
Powders |
Valves
|
Ball |
Butterfly |
Gate |
Globe |
|
Pumps |
Centrifugal
|
Diaphragm |
Reciprocating |
Rotary |
|
Cross Flow
Membranes |
RO Equipment |
Micro Equipment |
UF Equipment |
Membranes
(3 segments) |
|
Cartridges |
Carbon |
Non-woven |
Membrane |
Metal |
String Wound |
Sedimentation |
Clarifier |
Disk |
Decanter |
DAF |
Two Others |
Water Chemicals |
Corrosion
Inhibitors |
Flocculants |
Scale
Inhibitors |
Oxidizers
Biocides |
Six Others |
Fabric Filters |
Systems |
Equipment |
Bags |
Media |
|
Scrubbers |
Absorber |
Adsorber |
Particulate |
Dry Scrubber |
2 Others |
Electrostatic
Precipitators |
Dry
Precipitators |
Wet
Precipitators |
There is also a third party $billion O&M market |
||
FGD |
Wet FGD |
Dry |
$7 billion market for repair and replace |
||
DeNOX |
Catalyst |
Reagent |
Very volatile market.
2018 is a valley |
||
Thermal |
Thermal incineration |
RTO |
Catalytic Oxidizers |
Catalyst |
|
Compressors |
Centrifugal |
Reciprocating |
Screw |
|
|
Fans and Blowers |
Centrifugal |
Axial |
Rotary |
Multi Stage |
Turbo |
Color Code $ billions |
|||||||
>100 |
> 20 |
>10 |
>5 |
>4 |
>2 |
>1 |
<1 |
One major process not included in the chart is heat exchange. It is a major
investment for the power, chemical, food, refining and a number of other
industries. Biological treatment is a substantial market in wastewater and was
not included. Reaction processes in the chemical industry were not included in
the chart but are part of the $ trillion market.
The rapidly developing Industrial Internet of Things empowered by the Industrial
Internet of Wisdom is changing the industry. The connection of knowledge and
people and products makes it more important to understand the interaction
between blowers and scrubbers, or pumps and filters. Automation and control is
expanding faster than the hardware.
A number of hardware suppliers are expanding their scope to provide the wisdom
about their products with edge computer technology providing a gateway to
central systems.
The explosion of knowledge also allows companies to afford advanced forecasting.
For example it is now possible to forecast not only ball valve purchases for gas
pipelines but to further segment by trunnion vs floating support, top vs side
entry, and forecast each of the sizes from 2-36"
More information on the individual market reports is found at
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/markets
Information on the Advanced Forecasting is described in a 5 step program covered
at www.mcilvainecompany.com
For more information contact Bob McIlvaine at
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
847-784-0012
Advanced Forecasting of the $12 billion On/Off Ball Valve Market and the $ 1
Trillion Combust, Flow and Treat Market
Advanced Forecasting can be defined as
1.
Bottoms up forecasting which provides accuracy supported by facts and statistics
2.
Detailed segmentation so that the forecasts match the individual sales
responsibilities
3.
Process for continuing feedback, review and updates
4.
Provision for impact of innovative product developments
5.
Forecasts of purchasers by each major prospect
Advanced Forecasting can be layered.
In the top layer McIlvaine provides forecasts for 80 countries and
regions for the next 5 years in more than 20 industries and for hundreds of
products. More than 1 million
forecasts in the Combust, Flow and Treat industries are continuously updated.
In addition, McIlvaine provides forecasts for generic products for each large
purchaser which adds another 20,000 forecasts.
This top layer is adequate for most regional decisions for product combinations.
A second layer provides the forecasts for each territory.
A third layer segments the markets in each territory for each special
product.
The top layer of forecasts is contained in the McIlvaine market reports as shown
at
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/markets
The second and third levels of segmentation are included in specific consulting
contracts.
In the top layer the local salesman has a forecast total for all the products
for which he is responsible along with forecasts for the large customers with
home offices in his territory. Additional layers can segment by specific
products. In one case the market
for pipeline ball valves was further segmented by trunnion vs floating, side
entry vs top entry and by sizes from 2" to 30".
The market can also be segmented to include forecasts for purchases by
any company purchasing some meaningful amount.
If 90% of the dollar volume is by customers with purchases of more than
$100,000 per year and the average purchase is $300,000 then purchases for 3.3
million buyers would need to be determined in order to identify the purchasers
for 90% of the $ 1 trillion total market.
However, since most companies concentrate on certain products and industries and
may not need to identify purchasers of less than $1 million per year, then
forecasts for a few thousand companies would be adequate.
Let's take ball valves as an example of Advanced Forecasting. 2018 Valve
purchases will be $62 billion. Purchases of ball valves will be $12 billion.
This is the largest of 8 categories of valves. The market is further
segmented by control vs on/off.
Since a small percent of ball valves are used for control, the on-off valve
market is over $11 billion. Of this
total the power market represents $1 billion.
This is further split by type of fuel with 50% coal, 25% oil and gas, 15%
nuclear and 10% other.
Valve Market 2018 |
|
Segment |
Revenue
$ billions 2018 |
Valve Market 2018 |
62 |
Ball Valves |
12 |
On/Off Ball Valves |
11 |
Power On/Off Ball Valves |
1 |
Oil and Gas Power On/Off Ball
Valves |
.25 |
Nuclear On/Off Ball Valves |
.20 |
Other Power On/Off Ball Valves |
.05 |
Coal On/Off Ball Valves |
.50 |
The nuclear ball valve market is concentrated with just five purchasers
accounting for 34% of the market.
Nuclear Power Plant Combust,
Flow and Treat Purchases 2018 -
$ millions |
|||||
|
World |
EDF |
Bechtel |
KEPCO |
Exelon |
Percent |
100 |
20 |
10 |
5 |
4 |
Guide |
1400 |
280 |
140 |
70 |
56 |
Control |
2200 |
440 |
220 |
110 |
88 |
Measure |
1200 |
240 |
120 |
60 |
48 |
Valves |
2000 |
400 |
200 |
100 |
80 |
Ball valves on/off |
200 |
40 |
20 |
10 |
8 |
Macrofiltration (Belt Presses,
Sand Filters) |
200 |
40 |
20 |
10 |
8 |
Pumps |
1100 |
220 |
110 |
55 |
44 |
Treatment Chemicals |
1400 |
280 |
140 |
70 |
56 |
Sedimentation and Centrifugation |
300 |
60 |
30 |
15 |
12 |
Variable Speed Drives and Motors |
600 |
120 |
60 |
30 |
24 |
RO/UF/MF Cross Flow Membrane
Systems |
200 |
40 |
20 |
10 |
8 |
Air Purification and Protection |
400 |
80 |
40 |
20 |
16 |
Total
|
11,000 |
2200 |
1100 |
550 |
440 |
The coal fired boiler ball valve market is less concentrated than nuclear but
still 15 companies make 56% of the purchases.
Coal Fired Power Plant Valve
Purchases 2018 $ millions |
|||
Company |
Country |
% Coal Fired Power Plant of
On/Off Ball Valve Purchases 2018
|
Coal Fired Power Plant On/Off
Ball Valve Purchases
2018
$ Millions |
AEP |
U.S. |
1.1 |
5.5 |
BWE |
U.S. |
0.6 |
3 |
Datang |
China
|
7 |
35 |
Duke |
U.S. |
1 |
5 |
Enel |
Italy |
1 |
5 |
Eskom |
South Africa |
6 |
30 |
*Guodian |
China |
7.5 |
37.5 |
Huaneng |
China |
9 |
45 |
Huadian |
China |
6 |
30 |
J-Power |
Japan |
0.5 |
2.5 |
National Thermal Power
Corporation (NTPC) |
India
|
7 |
35 |
NRG |
U.S. |
1 |
5 |
*Shenhua |
China
|
4.5 |
22.5 |
Southern |
U.S. |
1 |
5 |
Uniper |
Germany |
0.6 |
3 |
Vietnam Power (EVN) |
Vietnam |
2 |
10 |
Sub Total |
|
55.8 |
279 |
Other |
|
44.2 |
221 |
TOTAL |
|
100 |
500 |
* These two companies are now combined creating a company with 12% of the
purchases
Many of the valve decisions are increasingly being made by OEMS, and EPCs. For
new systems the end user will not often directly purchase these components.
Large power plant system suppliers will typically purchase or specify the
specific brand and product.
As a result, a few thousand people in 31 corporations will make more than 70
percent of the purchase decisions for valves.
Decision Makers for Coal Fired
Power Plant Valves |
Percent |
Top 16 operators - Direct |
40 |
Top 16 EPCs and OEMs for the top
16 operators |
12 |
Smaller EPCS for top 16
operators |
3.8 |
Top 16 operators sub total |
55.8 |
Top 16 EPC's for smaller
operators |
15 |
Top 31 sub total |
70.8 |
Purchases by smaller EPCs for
smaller operators |
9 |
Smaller operators - Direct |
20.2 |
Total |
100 |
Municipal wastewater treatment plant operators world-wide are anticipated to
spend $64 billion for selected flow and treat products and services this year.
The majority of these purchases will be made by just 200 operators and 30
engineering/consulting firms.
Suez is supplying more than 30 million people with water and wastewater
services. They are also designing plants and purchasing flow and treat products
for new as well as existing plants. Beijing Enterprises Water Group (BEWG)
operates more than 400 wastewater plants in China and other countries and is
also involved in design build projects where they would specify flow and treat
products. Chicago MSD operates seven wastewater reclamation plants. It is
also expanding its scope by encouraging nearby food processors to send waste to
the plant for conversion to biogas. This will increase its sludge processing,
compressor and air pollution control purchases. Los Angeles Sanitation's
operations are approximately half the size of those in Chicago.
2018 Municipal Wastewater
Purchases ($ millions) |
|||||||
|
World
|
U.S. |
Suez
|
Jacobs
CH2M |
BEWG |
Los Angeles |
Chicago MSD |
Guide |
5280 |
1100 |
106 |
63 |
33 |
11 |
22 |
Control |
8640 |
1800 |
173 |
104 |
54 |
18 |
36 |
Measure |
4320 |
900 |
86 |
52 |
27 |
9 |
18 |
Valves |
4800 |
1000 |
96 |
58 |
30 |
10 |
20 |
On/Off Ball Valves |
600 |
125 |
12 |
7 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
Macrofiltration (belt presses,
sand filters) |
2400 |
500 |
48 |
29 |
15 |
5 |
10 |
Pumps |
9600 |
2000 |
192 |
115 |
60 |
20 |
40 |
Treatment Chemicals |
6720 |
1400 |
134 |
81 |
42 |
14 |
28 |
Sedimentation and Centrifugation |
4320 |
900 |
86 |
52 |
27 |
9 |
18 |
Variable Speed Drives and Motors |
4800 |
1000 |
96 |
58 |
30 |
10 |
20 |
Turbines, Fans, and Compressors |
10560 |
2200 |
211 |
127 |
66 |
22 |
44 |
RO/UF/MF Cross Flow Membrane
Systems |
1200 |
250 |
24 |
14 |
7 |
3 |
6 |
Air Pollution Control |
960 |
200 |
19 |
12 |
6 |
2 |
4 |
Total
|
63,600 |
13,250 |
1271 |
765 |
397 |
133 |
266 |
The food market is much more fragmented than most of the other markets.
Cartridge expenditures this year by the industry will be $591 million.
The largest purchasers will each buy 1% or less of the total.
The industry will spend $522 million for on off ball valves which is
slightly less than for cartridges.
Subject |
ADM |
Anheuser
Busch |
Cargill |
Coca Cola |
Con Agra |
Food On/Off Ball Valves |
2.6 |
3.5 |
1.8 |
2.6 |
0.9
|
The top layer the market reports provide forecasts for 550 purchasers.
More extensive Advance Consulting is available on a contractual basis.
Advanced Forecasting is also the first step in a 5-step business program
which is discussed at
www.mcilvainecompany.com.