Insights of the Week
The courts have approved a new coal fired power plant in Kansas but keep in mind
that this is the result of a lawsuit filed in 2010. The economics have
changed in the last six years. Also, coal plant investments are made on
the basis of an economic life of 30 years. The potential for the Clean
Power Plan to be implemented by a future administration will continue to dampen
the enthusiasm for new coal fired construction.
One role for coal in the U.S. could be combined heat and power. A coal fired
power plant which can supply the waste heat for processes could be 70% efficient
compared to the best GTCCC standalone plant of 55%. There are at least 500
existing large industrial coal fired boilers in the U.S. which could be
upgraded.
Thursday is the Oil and Gas IIoT webinar followed a week later by one on
Filtration and Separation IIoT. See the schedule at:
Weekly IIoT Webinars
Decision Guides for high performance valves are now being compiled on a
collaborative basis. It is part of the Mcilvaine effort to empower IIoT
with IIoW (Wisdom). Valves for severe, critical, or unique service in oil
and gas and power are being analyzed.
High Performance Valves and IIoT
The digital rapidity of IIoT has to be duplicated in IIoW. One route is to
record your sales power point presentations and make them accessible.
InterwebviewsT
IIoT and Remote O&M will boost Sales to the Oil and Gas Industry by $13 billion
this Year.
The Oil and Gas industry has been an early adopter of IIoT and Remote O&M. It is
also a major purchaser of flow control and treatment products. These are
defined by Mcilvaine to include all products and services associated with
movement or treatment of granular solids, liquids, and gases. It includes
combustion, reaction, cooling, separation, drying, and other processes.
Smart sensors, software, smart components and data analytics along with other
components of IIoT will result in purchases by oil and gas companies this year
of $13 billion above what they would spend for less robust automation and flow
control and treatment smart products.
An additional $18 billion will be influenced by IIoT players rather than the
traditional decision makers. Included in this group are sales to corporate
decision makers using IIoT for global sourcing as well as sales to third party
O&M companies. The total market of $31 billion will be growing at 13% per year
to $80 billion in 2025 and $168 billion by 2030. The market will represent
1.5% of the relevant Capex/Opex market in 2017 rising to 3.2% in 2025.
These findings will be discussed on Thursday at 10:00 AM in an hour-long
webinar. We invite you to join us by registering at
Weekly IIoT Webinars
Robust Market for Operating and Maintaining FGD Systems
FGD market opportunities are greatly enhanced by the potential for remote
maintenance and operation. International suppliers can increase their
success rate in developing countries while at the same time bring decades of
experience to countries without it.
Coal-fired power plants will spend $10 billion/yr. to remove SO2 over
the next few years. This includes the capital investment, repair,
replacement and consumables. The capital investment will be lower than at
a peak in 2010 but the other segments continue to grow. The various
factors are continually assessed in McIlvaine's
N027 FGD Market and Strategies.
The biggest near term markets are in Asia. There are a number of new
plants in planning and construction in India, Vietnam, and Indonesia.
China is challenged with maintaining and repairing a number of systems which
were built with plastic lined steel instead of high alloys. This lower
cost approach requires periodic replacement. It also places greater
emphasis on continuous corrosion monitoring and guidance as to the most cost
effective repair options.
The U.S. will continue to operate more than 200,000 MW of FGD systems, but will
not build new coal-fired power plants. China already operates four times
as many coal-fired power plants as the U.S. and will continue to build more but
at a reduced rate. The big variable is the use of FGD for coal-fired power
plants in India, Vietnam and Indonesia. There are new SO2
regulations in India. The limits vary by age and size of the boiler. Power
plants in coastal areas are likely to use seawater as the scrubbing liquor.
This approach reduces capital cost and eliminates costly lime or limestone.
Another variable is the type of FGD which will be employed. Dry FGD
necessitates purchase of lime or sodium. These reagents are much costlier
than limestone. But dry FGD requires much less capital investment than wet
limestone. India suffers from lack of water and is likely to lean toward the dry
methods. On the other hand, the wet limestone results in saleable gypsum
while dry FGD results in a waste which must be landfilled or converted to low
value construction products. One option is a two-stage scrubbing system which
results in both sulfuric and hydrochloric acid by-products. This design
also has the potential to separate rare earths at a much lower cost than the
methods being researched by the USDOE and the Chinese government.
There is a large and growing market to maintain and operate FGD systems.
Remote monitoring allows a vendor to cost effectively support
operations thousands of miles away.
A number of FGD systems already have digital process management systems in
place. The next step is to integrate them into a higher-level cloud
platform which allows participation by component experts and others.
An example of a digital process management system which is working well is one
supplied by Andritz. It incorporates Yokogawa software. For the Turceni
power plant in Romania, Yokogawa provided its CENTUM VP integrated production
control system (PCS); field devices such as DPharp EJX pressure/differential
pressure transmitters, pH analyzers, and temperature transmitters; the Plant
Resource Manager (PRM) integrated device management tool; the Exaquantum plant
information management system (PIMS); the eLogBook tool for shift operator
logging; and paperless recorders for environmental emissions tracking and the
monitoring of large motors. The system insures compliance with
environmental standards while minimizing costs of fan and pump energy
consumption as well as use of water and limestone.
The incorporation of a full IIoT system would allow limestone, fan, and pump
suppliers to review performance and make suggestions to Andritz and the owner
Complexul Energetic Oltenia S.A. If Asian power plants incorporate similar
software and then add the additional IIoT programs explained in the Mcilvaine
service Industrial IoT and Remote O&M they can take advantage of the
world's knowledge.
More information on FGD Markets and Strategies is found at:
N027 FGD Market and Strategies
More information on Industrial IoT and Remote O&M is found at:
N031 Industrial IOT and Remote O&M
$20 billion Filtration and Separation IIoT and Remote O&M Market by 2026
Filtration and separation involves many variables. The applications are
frequently critical to successful manufacturing of products and delivery of
clean water. The Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) empowered by the
Industrial Internet of Wisdom (IIoW) will have a $10 billion impact on the
market size by 2026 and will divert another $10 billion through different market
routes. Sales of filtration and separation equipment and consumables will
exceed $95 billion in 2026. Of this total $20 billion will be attributable
to the impact of IIoT and Remote O&M. This is the latest forecast in the
Mcilvaine publication IIoT and Remote O&M.
Filtration & Separation IIoT &
Remote O&M Market |
|
Segment |
$ billions |
Traditional Route to Market |
75 |
New Route to Market |
10 |
New Smart Revenues |
10 |
Total |
95 |
IIoT Impacted Market |
20 |
There is already a substantial market in certain industries such as oil and gas,
pulp and paper, and food processing. The IIoT & Remote O&M segment of the
market will be growing by 13% per year over the next decade compared to just 3%
for the rest of the industry.
There has been a great deal of analysis relative to the convergence of
information technology and operations technology. Smart sensors, open
platforms and improved data analytics are creating the equivalent of millions of
continually updated white papers on the performance of individual components,
sub systems, and systems. The use of subject matter experts has typically
been addressed without regard to the importance of innovation.
This avalanche of white papers is going to justify an army of experts each able
to focus on a very narrow niche. It is also going to dictate
interconnection between individuals at each plant within the organization
operating the filtration and separation systems. It is going to dictate
interconnection between the end users, associations, and suppliers to an extent
commensurate with the increase in available knowledge.
This interconnection is occurring partly through acquisitions. Suez is
purchasing GE Water. It has a remote monitoring center in France. It
also owns and operates municipal water and wastewater plants throughout the
world. It is operating 40% of the municipal plants in Chile. It can
monitor centrifuge performance and then add GE Betz chemicals to improve
dewatering from the remote monitoring center.
Some industries can light the way for others. Andritz automation has
created FiberVision and can remotely measure particle size of the fibers in the
pulp slurry in a pulp and paper mill. The system measures other parameters
in all the processes and provides guidance for the operators. Andritz is also
offering predictive control algorithms to better operate thickeners, flotation
devices, and filters in mining applications.
A number of centrifuge suppliers have comprehensive monitoring and control
systems. GEA has Wewatch®. Centrisys remotely monitors 32 key operating
parameters and offers to log in and make non-critical adjustments to help
optimize the process. Alfa Laval Octopus monitors and controls all aspects of
the dewatering process.
A number of the filter vendors are moving forward aggressively in the IIoT
space. Mann & Hummel has a new IIoT laboratory in Singapore where it has
10 projects in the pipeline. Donaldson remotely monitors bulk
filtratration systems for fuel. Restaurant Technologies monitors fryer filter
health in restaurants. Aqua Clear monitors RO and nanofilter systems for
industrial and commercial facilities. The Evoqua Wallace & Tiernan
division has extensive process monitoring systems with intelligent
visualization.
There has been a move to higher efficiency filters for gas turbines. The
increased filter cost is justified by lower maintenance. AAF combines
remote monitoring with a maintenance package including inventory management.
This comprehensive approach provides an opportunity to provide the lowest total
cost of ownership.
There are some power generation companies operating hundreds of gas turbines.
One company with a large number of gas turbines is BHE Energy. Mcilvaine has
created a beta site to demonstrate the value of IIoW to empower IIoT. BHE
also has coal fired plants and wind turbines. So it would have thousands of
lubrication systems. A new kidney shaped filter at one of their plants has
proved superior in a pulverizer application. Cuno string wound
filters are specified at most of their plants but due to particulate
contamination related to air cooling the condensate filter needed to be replaced
at one plant with a Pall 25-micron filter. When case histories and the
knowledge of the plant operators and suppliers are pooled for a company such as
BHE, the impact of IIoT becomes more cost effective.
The IIoT forecasts for filtration along with strategies to help filter companies
collaborate with other players are provided at:
N031 Industrial IOT and Remote O&M
This opportunity will be discussed in an hour-long webinar on March 30. To
register click on:
Weekly IIoT Webinars
Market reports on individual filtration and separation subjects are found at:
Markets
Decision systems to support filter IIoW are found at:
4S01 Berkshire Hathaway Energy Supplier and Utility Connect
44I Coal Fired Power Plant Decisions
59D Gas Turbine and Reciprocating Engine Decisions
Bob McIlvaine
President
847-784-0012 ext. 112
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
www.mcilvainecompany.com
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