WELCOME
Weekly selected highlights in flow control, treatment and combustion from the
many McIlvaine publications.
Briefs
Coal Fired Power Plants Webinar April 25:
Join us at 10:00AM CDT to discuss the markets for new plants around the world
but also for replacement and upgrades at existing plants.
To register click on
Free Market Webinars
Pump and Fugitive Emissions Summit:
McIlvaine is on the steering committee and working with KCI to help make this
conference and exhibition June 26 and 27 as useful to attendees as the one two
years ago. We are also working with the management (KCI) to provide come
continuity between the U.S. Show, the Chinese Show, and articles in Valve World
Americas, Valve World, Pump Engineer, Stainless Steel World, and Hose and
Couplings magazines.
One of the continuity streams will be on common versus better options. All
the speakers and exhibitors are being asked to provide one such example.
Here are entries we have received so far:
Person |
Affiliation |
Option |
Description |
Richard Bierman |
Chevron Phillips |
Common |
Analysis based on overall
vibration |
Better |
The use of trend based narrow
ban envelope alarming |
||
Jeff Ronseneder
Trey Gorfe |
Emerson |
Common |
Non-resilient stem packing for
ball valves |
Better |
Resilient stem packing for ball
valves to prevent fugitive
emissions |
||
Buddy Broerman |
Southwest
Research Institute |
Common |
Pump vendor sizes dampener as a
guestimate when installing
plunger pumps |
Better |
Take advantage of an upfront
pulsation/vibration analysis to
avoid vibration issues and
piping rework costs.
|
||
Ned Davis |
Maui Innovation
Group |
Common |
Employ low emissions valve
packing |
Better |
Hermetically seal valve
enclosure and actuate valve with
a magnetic coupling ensuring
zero emissions over the entire
life of the valve |
||
Jean-Marc Fosseux |
TechnipFMC |
Common |
Use of conventional pump sealing
systems for hazardous product
(dual mechanical seals +
auxiliaries) |
Better |
Use of seal-less pumps when
possible
|
If you are an exhibitor or speaker at the Summit and would like to submit a
common and better option, or if you have comments about any of the options
displayed by others just communicate them to Bob McIlvaine at 847-784-0012 ext.
112 or
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
To learn more about the conference click on
https://fugitive-emissions-summit.com/
The Power of Innovation for Suppliers of Combust, Flow and Treat Products
There is a sea change in the route to market for suppliers of combust, flow and
treat products. It is being caused by the adoption of digital technologies.
Suppliers have to navigate a course every bit as challenging as did
Eastman Kodak. The monumental
failure of this company was to underestimate
the power of innovation and overestimate the power of positioning in a
non-digital market. The result was a company which was best able to achieve what
Apple has accomplished and instead stifled R&D and tried to delay or prevent the
transition to digital cameras.
Suppliers of Combust, Flow and Treat (CFT) products can harness
the power of innovation only
if they understand customer needs in every niche where there is potential.
There is voluminous data already available to facilitate this
understanding. With process
management software and data analytics the availability of useful data will
expand by orders of magnitude. The individual supplier is already overwhelmed by
this avalanche of information.
However, just as IIoT connects things in vastly large numbers the Industrial
Internet of Wisdom (IIoW) can connect knowledge and people and harness the power
of the avalanche rather than be buried by it.
Innovation will potentially generate large revenues and profits as per the Apple
example. It starts with understanding customer needs.
This is prohibitively expensive for any one company.
Companies such as Primex and MOGAS have found ways to share this cost
using the Wikinomics concept. Many companies support Users Groups. However,
harnessing the power of the avalanche is going to require even more
interconnection in the new digital world.
Ultimately there should be interconnection addressing all segments with
potential power in the avalanche.
Organized decision systems around industries, processes and products should
exist in millions of niches. Google
and other search engines employ large numbers of people. However, IIoW will need
to employ even more to keep up with the avalanche in an organized and decisive
way.
Who should spearhead this activity: governments, consultants, associations or
suppliers? The group with the most to gain are the suppliers and there is a
strong case to be made as to why they should lead rather than follow. The
McIlvaine Company believes its primary role should be as a consultant rather
than leader even though it has developed Decision Systems such as
Coal Fired Boilers.
McIlvaine can aid suppliers. This assistance comes as part of a 5-step
program
THE FIVE STEP BUSINESS PROGRAM
is the navigation tool and the Lowest Total Cost of Ownership Validation (LTCOV)
is the ship most likely to insure a successful voyage. Innovation is the fuel to
maximize the speed and quantity delivered. The foundation of successful
innovation is the Industrial Internet of Wisdom (IIoW)
With IIoT, remote monitoring and data analytics, the customer will possess
continuing total cost of ownership analyses of each product.
To persuade the customer to buy more of his product the supplier will
need to deliver insights which are superior to those already in his possession.
Persuading the customer to buy a new product requires the supplier to
demonstrate greatly superior knowledge. The advantage of the new environment is
that the customer is much more receptive to products which will provide LTCO.
In order for the supplier to create the LTCOV for a specific product in a
specific process he will first need:
·
Information about the plant process
·
Performances of competitive products in that process
·
Relevant general factors such as cost of electricity, weather and geography.
·
Relevant customer factors such as production cycles, financial criteria and
personnel capabilities
If the supplier has a product which is proven in a similar process, then it is
valuable to establish the similarities and differences between the two
processes. This is particularly relevant if
·
This is a new product and only used to date in the other process
·
The severity and criticality of the other process is similar to the given
process.
INNOVATION:
Innovation will be more important in the new market environment. The reason is
that customers have the process management systems and data analytics to analyze
the new product potential. They
already will have documented the short comings of existing products and
processes.
This new and better innovation must be validated for each application. This
requires a high level of process and product knowledge to first develop the
product and then to communicate that knowledge convincingly.
EXAMPLES:
Here is the way some companies are gaining and communicating this knowledge.
PRIMEX: This company has been
involved with dry scrubbing systems for coal fired boilers for decades. They
helped create the Dry Scrubbers Users Group (DSUA) and are very active in the
annual conference. They consult for several NAES power plants and have access to
the continuous process management data supplied by the OSIsoft systems.
They are analyzing the performance of all the components. Because of their
extensive experience they have recommended changes which have greatly improved
operations.
The bag design was causing some problems. Primex patented a modification and
then licensed this patent to the bag manufacturers.
At the latest conference, there was a good sharing of information among
suppliers and users relative to the control valve washing protocol. Primex will
be able to incorporate this knowledge into their advisory service.
McIlvaine has proposed to the DSUA and to Primex that the McIlvaine
Dry Scrubber Decision Guide be used
to create an ongoing decision system on dry scrubber components and processes.
This would provide currency and organization to the overall effort and
provide the four knowledge needs: Alerts, Answers, Analysis and Advancement.
MOGAS: This valve manufacturer and
severe service technology company organizes a biennial conference on autoclaves
for extraction of metals from ores. Ekato, an agitator supplier, Koch-Knight who
furnishes autoclave components, NobelClad, a supplier of explosively clad
alloys, and Caldera, a consultant specializing in extraction are co-sponsors.
MOGAS has captured a large share of the severe service valve market for these
applications. Their process knowledge and innovative engineering philosophy have
resulted in special valve designs with unique coatings to reduce corrosion and
erosion.
There are similar applications with larger markets. One is tight oil including
oil sands and shale. Another is the power plant FGD where Ekato is the leading
supplier of agitators. Scaling is a problem in both applications.
Improved valve and agitator designs for one market can be applied to
others.
The bi annual autoclave conference has spurred innovation. Wouldn't on going
decision systems on this subject be a logical next step forward?
Application oriented decision systems can be supplemented by
product-oriented systems such as valve decisions for severe service slurry
valves: or "agitators for abrasive and corrosive applications".
HRSGS USERS GROUP: The organizers
of this bi annual conference and McIlvaine are ready to help suppliers organize
decision systems around HRSG products.
There is already a good start with a decision guide on HRSG valves.
The next step is to identify suppliers willing to support this effort.
The sea change in the CFT markets will require major adjustments by the
suppliers. Those who follow the Apple rather than Eastman Kodak example will be
able to navigate the route to maximum ROI and profits. Details on the 5-step
business program are provided at
www.mcilvainecompany.com
Advanced Forecasting for Greater Sales and Profits
Advanced forecasting of combust, flow and treat products can be obtained for
each plant and each corporation based on plant capacity. The investment for new
products, replacement products and repairs can all be related to projected and
existing capacity. The power
industry forecasts start with the capacity of each generator. Municipal
wastewater forecasts can be determined based on the MGD of primary and secondary
treatment. The same approach can be used for refineries. Pulp and paper
forecasts can be achieved with tons/yr of pulp. Mining is more of a challenge
because purchases vary with each type of ore. The industry which is most
challenging is the chemical/fertilizer industry. There are many different
products requiring many different processes. This necessitates forecasting
production of each chemical and then grouping these chemicals by common
requirements. For example, TDI, Cl,
and MOP/DAP all include processes with highly corrosive fluids.
The forecasts for corrosion resistant products for each plant can be
determined based on the production or usage of corrosive chemicals at each
plant. Here is an example
tabulation for Chlorine.
France - 2017 Chlorine
Production - kT/yr |
||
Company |
Location |
Production |
PPChemicals |
Thann |
43 |
Vencorex |
Pont de Claix |
170 |
Kem One |
Fos |
340 |
Arkema |
Jarrie |
72 |
Kem One |
Lavera |
363 |
Arkema |
St. Auban |
20 |
MSSA |
Pomblière |
42 |
PC Harbonnières |
Harbonnières |
23 |
Inovyn |
Tavaux |
360 |
PC Loos |
Loos |
18 |
Total |
|
1451 |
The same procedure can then be repeated for other corrosive chemicals and
forecasts made for each CFT product.
McIlvaine routinely forecasts purchases for the top 30 chemical
companies. However, many of the top purchasers of corrosion resistant products
are not in the top group for all CFT products. The challenge is to segment the
corrosion resistant purchases separately from the others. The following
companies are all significant purchasers of corrosion resistant products.
CFT Purchases by Process and Revenue - 2018
Chemical Industry Example |
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|
TDI |
Cl |
MOP/
DAP # |
2018
Rank |
Valves
$ mill |
Plastic |
Rubber |
Ceramic |
Thermal
Spray |
Other CFT products |
Air Liquide |
|
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84 |
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6 types of
On/off
Valves
6 types of
Control
Valves
4 types of
Pumps
13 types of
Treatment Chemicals
Stack gas
Neutralizing Agents such as lime and sodium
4 types of
Cartridges
6 types of
Liquid Filtration equipment
5 types of
Sedimentation /Centrifugation equipment
Cross-Flow RO, UF, MF
membranes
4 types of
Scrubbers, Adsorbers and Absorbers
2 types of
Fans
6 types of
Blowers
and Compressors
Guide, Control, Measure for Liquids, Gases and
Free Flowing Solids
Fabric Filters and Bags
Wet and Dry Precipitators
SCR, SNCR,
Catalysts, Urea
Nozzles
Piping
Heat Exchangers
Combustors
ZLD systems
Ultrapure Water Systems
Stainless Steel plate
FRP Vessels and Piping
Thermal Coatings
Hose and Couplings
Drives and Motors
Dampers and Stacks
DuctworK
HVAC Filters
|
Agrium |
|
|
10 |
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Akzo Nobel |
|
x |
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|
80 |
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Anwil |
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Aventis |
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BASF |
x |
x |
|
2 |
311 |
Analysis with 150 slides |
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Braskem |
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69 |
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Bayer |
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Belaruskali |
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Covestro |
|
x |
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65 |
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CUF |
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Degussa |
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DOW-Dupont |
x |
x |
|
1 |
339 |
Analysis with 100 slides |
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DSM |
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Ercos |
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Evonik |
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73 |
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Exxon |
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7 |
137 |
Also separate oil/gas forecasts |
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Formosa |
x |
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5 |
142 |
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FMC |
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Hanwha |
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ICL |
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Ineos |
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INOVYN |
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K&S |
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Kem One |
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LG Chem |
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Linde |
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Lyondell |
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Mosaic |
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Nirma |
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Mitsubishi |
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Occidental |
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OCP |
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Olin + |
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PCC Rokita |
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Potash Corp |
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PPG |
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Qinghai Salt |
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Runcorn |
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Sabic |
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Sinopec |
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Tosoh |
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Tata |
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Toray |
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Uhde |
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Uralkai |
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VESTOLIT |
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Vinnolit |
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Vynova |
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Xinjiang -
Shongtai |
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Yara |
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Yuntianhua |
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This group includes the top 20 chemical companies and the top companies in the
chlorine, TDI and MAP, DAP segments.
Exxon is the seventh largest purchaser of valves in the chemical industry
(their oil, gas and refining purchases are determined separately). However they
are not a major player in production of the three corrosive chemicals displayed
in this chart.
Advanced Forecasting to determine the purchases of a specific product by a
specific company in the next year allows for a direct effort by the supplier
well in advance of the actual purchase. This effort can result in specifications
and decisions ahead of time which greatly improve the order potential.
The cost of this type of analysis is no longer prohibitive.
For more information contact Bob McIlvaine at
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com