See us Next Week at the Filtration Conference October 10-12
Filtration 2017 will be held at Navy Pier in Chicago where 1500 attendees will
be able to view 140 exhibitor stands in addition to a number of cutting edge
presentations. Tuesday, October 10
will be devoted to presentations. There will be a session on IIoT where Herve
Buisson, Vice President of Veolia Water will cover some of the water industry's
IIoT initiatives and probe the ways that the industry can create smarter
filters.
Frank Stamatatos, President of SecureAire Inc will address IIoT and
·
Explore the relationship between the Internet, Filtration Technologies, and
their application in critical environments.
·
Review the current Internet application categories and how they fit in with
Filtration.
·
Describe SecureAire's method for applying the IoT in controlling IAQ in critical
environments.
·
Offer provocative thoughts on the future of the Filtration Industry with IoT.
The key note speaker at the Tuesday luncheon, Philip Whitaker, president, and
CEO of AAF Flanders, will provide insights on why there has been an upswing of
M&A activity involving filtration-related companies and what performance metrics
should current filtration companies focus on to enhance their value.
The exhibition will be open both Wednesday, October 11 and Thursday, October 12.
Mcilvaine personnel will be participating on all three days.
If you want to talk to Bob McIlvaine you can reach him by cell phone at
847-226-2391 or by email at 847-784-0012 ext. 112
Combust, Flow and Treat Markets in Nuclear Power will be Covered in October 18
Webinar
McIlvaine will conduct a webinar on October 18 which will provide insights into
the market for combust flow and treat products and services for the nuclear
power industry. A number of
specific product forecasts will be reviewed.
These are listed in the next article. This webinar is free.
You can register at
Free Market Webinars
Five Companies will be Responsible for 39 Percent of the Combust, Flow and Treat
Purchases in the Nuclear Power Sector Next Year
Global nuclear power generation is now predicted to grow by 2.3 percent per
annum out to 2035, mainly due to 11 percent annual growth in China. China's
operating nuclear generating capacity will double over the next five years under
the country's recently-published 13th Five-Year Plan.
Under that plan, over the next five years combust flow and treat hardware and
parts expenditures for existing plants next year will be four times greater than
for new plants. Guide, control, and
measure hardware investments will be ten times greater for existing plants than
new ones in 2018. Service and
remote monitoring will be 50 times greater for existing plants than the new ones
(during the first year of operation).
Over 90 percent of the combust, flow and treat expenditures will be made by
fewer than 50 companies.
Thirty-nine percent will be made by just three operators and one supplier.
Bechtel has completed more than 74,000 megawatts of new nuclear generation
capacity, and has performed engineering and/or construction services on more
than 80 percent of nuclear plants in the United States and 150 worldwide. It
employs 2,200 nuclear professionals, which include approximately 150
internationally recognized technical specialists who have been published widely,
and have participated in developing industry standards and guidelines.
It is a major influence in ten percent of the combust, flow and treat
decisions.
EDF has acquired Areva and then restructured the New NP reactor business to
allow minority share purchases by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Assystem. In
addition to operating 70,000 MW of nuclear power in France the company is
negotiating the sale of nuclear power plants in
China, India, South Africa and Saudi Arabia. Therefore, it is responsible for 20
percent of the nuclear combust, flow and treat decisions.
Korea Electric Power (KEPCO) is a nuclear power operator with a capacity of
23,116 MW. It is operating 25
nuclear power units as of 2016 with five under construction. It will make five
percent of the combust, flow and treat purchasing decisions in 2018.
Exelon has consolidated nuclear power operations in the U.S. and is now
operating plants with a capacity of over 19,000 MW.
It will make four percent of the 2018 combust, flow and treat decisions.
Nuclear Power Plant Combust,
Flow and Treat Purchases 2018 -
$ millions |
|||||
|
World |
EDF |
Bechtel
|
KEPCO |
Exelon |
Percent |
100 |
20 |
10 |
5 |
4 |
Guide |
1400 |
280 |
140 |
70 |
56 |
Control |
2200 |
440 |
220 |
110 |
88 |
Measure |
1200 |
240 |
120 |
60 |
48 |
Valves |
2000 |
400 |
200 |
100 |
80 |
Macrofiltration (Belt Presses,
Sand Filters) |
200 |
40 |
20 |
10 |
8 |
Pumps |
1100 |
220 |
110 |
55 |
44 |
Treatment Chemicals |
1400 |
280 |
140 |
70 |
56 |
Sedimentation and Centrifugation |
300 |
60 |
30 |
15 |
12 |
Variable Speed Drives and Motors |
600 |
120 |
60 |
30 |
24 |
RO/UF/MF Cross Flow Membrane
Systems |
200 |
40 |
20 |
10 |
8 |
Air Purification and Protection |
400 |
80 |
40 |
20 |
16 |
Total
|
11,000 |
2200 |
1100 |
550 |
440 |
These estimates are very approximate and involve problems with the precise
defined scope. Orders are booked in
one period. Revenue might be
realized in a series of succeeding periods. The purchasing decision may be
shared between the OEM, the EPC and the operator.
Some decisions will be made at the plant level.
Others will be made at the corporate level. However, with the rapid
deployment of IIoT more and more decisions will be made at the corporate
operator level. Process management
system companies will be an increasing influence.
Forecasts for the individual purchasers provide an important tool for suppliers.
Most already have separate sales efforts for the large purchasers.
IIoT will result in most decisions being made or specified at the
corporate level. So, the OEM sales effort will need to expand.
Forecasts of individual operator purchases are equivalent to pieces of a puzzle.
The sales forecast is built upon a picture puzzle for which many of the pieces
are missing. The more pieces which
are fitted together, the more accurate the picture becomes.
McIlvaine
is providing combust, flow and treat forecasts for more than 550 companies.
They appear in the various market reports.
The guide, control and measure forecasts for individual nuclear power
generators and suppliers are included in
N031 Industrial IoT and Remote O&M
The nuclear valve forecasts appear in the
Industrial Valves World Markets which
also has a supplemental analysis for the 5000 high performance valves in an
Areva system. There are market
reports covering each of the subject areas found in
MARKETS LINK. The profiles of individual power companies and suppliers
are included in the Utility Tracking System
42EI Utility Tracking System.
Subject Matter Experts need to be Cultivated and Supported
In the IIoT world there will be the equivalent of millions of continuous
analyses on every combust, flow and treat product.
There will be a great need to evaluate all the voluminous information and
make accurate conclusions as to the total cost of ownership of each different
product. This will require focused efforts by thousands of experts each focusing
on a niche so small that he will be a one subject matter expert (SME).
In the Insights last week, we covered the Dry Scrubber Users Group and the
contribution SMEs at Primex are making not only to sort out the products with
the lowest cost of ownership but to help the suppliers (e.g. capless bag)
improve their products to fit the unique process circumstances created in dry
scrubbing.
Furthermore, these SMEs gained even more knowledge through the discussions at
the conference and the contributions made by other operators and suppliers.
McIlvaine has the following recommendations
·
User groups such as DSUA need to be encouraged to provide international coverage
·
These groups can help create subject matter experts from among their ranks of
retirees.
·
Consulting companies have an opportunity to develop SMEs and move away from the
concept that all employees need to generate billable hours on projects
·
Suppliers will be well served to encourage their retirees to become SMEs
·
User groups will need to become more focused over time.
The first EPA FGD conference in 1972 had about 20 attendees and covered
every possible type of scrubber.
Now we have a user group devoted just to dry scrubbers and another one just
devoted to just hydrate injection.
As the quantity of knowledge in each subject area increases it will be necessary
to provide more focused interconnection.
Bob McIlvaine can answer questions and can be reached at:
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
847-784-0012 ext. 112