WELCOME
Weekly selected highlights in flow control, treatment and combustion from the
many McIlvaine publications.
Wednesday
webinar important to all combust, flow, and treat suppliers
McIlvaine will conduct a webinar on November 8th to explore a big change in the
hot gas APC market.
You can register at:
Hot Topic Hour Schedule and Recordings
The webinar will be a template for leveraging
IIoT and Remote O&M for all the system, component, and consumables
suppliers.
IIoW utilizes the data analytics provided by IIoT and provides the
interconnection between end users, suppliers, and subject matter experts to
create the TCOs and more importantly create new products with lower TCOs.
The interconnections need to be as prolific in IIoW as in IIoT. There is a
need for subject matter ultra-experts and decision systems.
The webinar will provide examples of both.
It is all part of all the following interconnections.
·
Supplier personnel in each product group and geography interconnecting with
peers around each of the 1000 large purchasers of combust, flow and treat
products. purchasers)
·
Owner-operator personnel in each plant and in each role interconnecting around
processes and products used in more than one of the plants (McIlvaine has a beta
site for BHE Energy)
o
User controlled groups expanding scope to create decision systems and through
digital technologies become international (Can suppliers work with the Dry
Scrubber Users Group and create an international dry scrubbers decisions group?)
o
Supplier controlled groups focused on total cost of ownership studies (Can the
hydrate users group become an international hydrate decisions group?)
·
Creation of Subject Matter Ultra Experts (SMUEs). Tomorrow's experts
will master the massive TCO data generated from IIoT. The SMUE will need
to be very focused and to continually utilize and help create the decision
systems around his specialty. The suppliers of the high-performance
products with the lowest TCO products will benefit from the SMUE validation of
their claims. Outstanding examples
of SMUES will be presented.
Large Hot Gas
System Suppliers face a Market Sea Change
Companies such as B&W,
GE-Alstom,
MHPS,
Longking, and
Doosan have the knowledge and
resources to navigate the sea change in the hot gas APC market and to greatly
increase profits. However, those who fail to adjust are likely to lose market
share. Niche players and suppliers of components also must navigate a new market
route.
This is a risky business. APC companies such as
Donaldson and
AAF have avoided it and
focused on lower temperature applications and standard equipment sales. There
are good historical reasons for avoidance. The market has been subject to
extreme volatility due to environmental regulations. In the good times there
were many new entries. In the bad teams many declared bankruptcy or merged. On
the average the profits have been anemic. On the other hand, the investment has
been low. So, the return on invested capital in some cases has been very high.
In other cases, investors have suffered 100 percent losses. So, it has been a
risky business. Thanks to IIoT and Remote O&M the market will undergo a sea
change which will reap big rewards for those who properly navigate it.
The IIoT and & Remote O&M will add 125% to the total market. This segment will
be steady and take advantage of the large installed base.
Hot Gas New Systems Market
Annual Potential Market - $
millions |
||||||
Industry |
Dust |
Acid Gas |
NOx |
Total Systems |
IIoT & Remote O&M |
Total |
Power |
7000 |
3000 |
6000 |
16,000 |
20,000 |
36,000 |
Cement, Stone |
2600 |
180 |
190 |
2970 |
3712 |
6682 |
Mining |
900 |
130 |
90 |
1110 |
1400 |
2520 |
Chemical |
50 |
70 |
70 |
190 |
238 |
428 |
Refining |
90 |
80 |
120 |
290 |
363 |
653 |
Pulp and Paper |
80 |
300 |
110 |
490 |
612 |
1102 |
Steel |
1800 |
70 |
120 |
1990 |
2488 |
4478 |
Total |
12,520 |
3830 |
6700 |
23,050 |
28,812 |
51,862 |
The U.S., Europe, Japan and the OECD countries have now retrofitted air
pollution control equipment on most of the hot gas stacks. China has retrofitted
most of its plants in the last ten years. The retrofit market is still big in
India and certain other developing countries. The new systems market will
continue to be robust thanks to the expansion of coal-fired generation in many
Asian and African countries. As long as there were big new markets, suppliers
neglected the revenue opportunity from the installed base. In the future,
expenditures to operate and maintain systems will exceed the expenditures for
new systems. This ratio will increase over time as all hot gas operations are
fitted with air pollution control systems.
NAES,
at its Logan and Carney plants, is demonstrating the benefits of IIoT and Remote
O&M for hot gas air pollution control. Both plants have dry scrubber systems.
The successes were the focus of speeches and discussions at the recent DSUA
conference. A third party specializing in dry scrubber technology continuously
monitors the systems and can suggest changes at any time.
There are weekly meetings with plant staff to discuss not only remedies
to problems but ways to improve the systems. This has resulted in patented bag
designs which are licensed back to the bag suppliers. It has resulted in
improved valve maintenance procedures and provides the details for valve
suppliers to improve their designs. Savings are millions of dollars per year.
The big potential of IIoT & Remote O&M is to facilitate improvements not just
avoid problems. The myriad of continuous total cost of ownership analyses
provided by the process management system is not directly actionable. There is a
need for a new breed of subject matter experts. We call them subject matter
ultra-experts (SMUES) who will be much focused on a very narrow niche and then
continually analyze the massive information being generated.
Who holds an edge on SMUES? This will be an important question in predicting the
fate of the various players. We guesstimated the rankings of five companies just
for illustrative purposes. These
may be the top ranked players. So, a # 5 position does not imply the company is
not a leader.
Guesstimated Rankings with 1
Being the Top |
|||||
Assets |
GE |
MHPS |
B&W |
Doosan |
Longking |
IIoT Skills |
1 |
2 |
4 |
3 |
5 |
Hot Gas Long Term Experience |
2 |
3 |
1 |
5 |
4 |
Hot Gas Short Term Experience |
4 |
2 |
3 |
5 |
1 |
R&D |
4 |
1 |
3 |
5 |
2 |
Experience and current R&D create SMUES. GE is clearly the IIoT skills leader
but MHPS has launched an aggressive program with remote monitoring centers.
Longking is the only one of the five without combustor knowledge. One the other
hand Longking has installed more hot gas systems than any of the others in
recent years. It has more dry scrubbing systems. Longking has a number of
innovative products such as hybrid precipitator baghouses. MHPS installed a
400,000 cfm R&D system whereas the others were content with 10,000 cfm systems.
Its innovative gas to gas heat exchangers have proven benefits.
B&W has been a technical leader over the decades. The GE Alstom (Combustion
Engineering) group has a very large installed base of precipitators, scrubbers,
and NOx control systems. The acquisition by GE could be important one
way or another. Doosan, with the acquisition of
Babcock Contractors some
years ago, established its global position.
This ranking system is heavily weighted to coal-fired power.
FLSmidth is a leader in
cement.
Andritz is a leader in pulp
and paper. GEA is a leader in
smelting. However, coal-fired power is the biggest market. So those who dominate
this segment have an advantage.
All of this will be discussed on Wednesday. You can join us free of charge with
registration at
Click here to register for the webinars
Bob McIlvaine can answer questions and can be reached at:
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
847-784-0012 ext. 112.