Remote Support is a $1.6 Billion Potential Business for Precipitator Product and
Service Companies
The supply of services and parts is a potential $1.6 billion /yr. business for
suppliers of electrostatic precipitator systems, components, remote monitoring
software, advisory and maintenance services.
This is the recent finding in
N018 Electrostatic Precipitator World Market
published by the McIlvaine Company.
|
Metric |
2017 |
2021 |
Utility Precipitators Installed |
GW |
2200 |
2440 |
Utility Air Flow |
cfm (m3/h) millions |
6600 (11,000) |
7320 (12,200) |
Industrial Precip Air Flow |
cfm (m3/h) millions |
660 (1,100) |
732 (1,220) |
Total Air Flow |
cfm (m3/h) millions |
7260 (12,100) |
8052 (13,220) |
O&M Cost ($0.60/cfm) |
$ millions |
4,356 |
4,931 |
Third Party Potential Revenues
($0.20/cfm) |
$ millions |
1,452 |
1,610 |
Third party potential revenues are 20 cents/cfm.
This creates a potential market next year of $1.4 billion rising by $200
million in 2021 to $1.6 billion.
Included in this total are the following:
·
Remote monitoring 24/7 of precipitator performance
·
Advisory or direct intervention to adjust operating parameters
·
Training of operators
·
Expert advice monthly or more often if warranted
·
Supply of parts for the precipitators, dust conveying and energy management
·
Other service
This opportunity is already being pursued by several types of organizations:
·
Boiler system companies (Alstom, Doosan, Mitsubishi)
·
Precipitator suppliers (FLSmidth, Longking, Feida)
·
Parts suppliers (B&W has both the boilers and parts)
·
Integral Component suppliers (NWL has remote systems focused on the energy
management)
·
Auxiliary component suppliers (valves, fans)
·
Service companies (Neuendorfer)
·
Specialized consulting (TRK provides 24/7 monitoring and emergency advice along
with monthly reports and meetings)
·
General consulting companies (Sargent & Lundy, Burns & McDonnell)
·
Continuous emissions monitoring system providers (Thermo Fisher, Sick)
·
Software suppliers (GE, Wind River, OSI Soft)
·
Digital processing hardware (ABB, Yokogawa)
The acceleration in interest and investment in the Internet of things (IoT)
coupled with increasing complexity of precipitator operations make third party
services increasingly attractive. Many of the precipitators now being installed
are in Asian and African countries where precipitator knowledge is lacking.
TRK has demonstrated the value in making instant expertise available.
Subject matter experts abound in the U.S. where the number of
precipitators in operation is shrinking.
This talent can be applied to help operators thousands of miles away
thanks to the increasingly sophisticated digital communications.
Remote services for precipitators have been in development for 30 years.
Services for other power plant components can be developed based on the
precipitator experience. This
provides the opportunity to expand into third party services for the entire
power plant. McIlvaine projects
this potential at $125 billion/yr. for third party services for the full range
of power plants including nuclear, fossil and renewable.
For more information click on:
N018
Electrostatic Precipitator World Market
NOx Control Market Opportunity is $38 Billion Per Year
Suppliers of NOx reduction products and services have an opportunity
to generate sales of more than $38 billion per year. No one technology provides
a complete solution. Minimizing the
generation of NOx needs to be combined in a series of reduction
steps. New technologies are
providing opportunities for greater NOx reduction at modest cost.
McIlvaine recently conducted 9 hours of webinars for one utility which resulted
in a NOx control path which was more cost effective than the
conventional approach.
The knowledge regarding marrying these technologies for optimum NOx
control is particularly well suited to India where a big NOx control
program has been initiated. Operators of the existing 187,000 MW of plants will
have to spend $8 billion to meet standards for existing units.
Small units built prior to 2003 are tasked with reductions as low as 15
percent. Units larger than 500 MW will have to make NOx reductions of
50 percent or more. New units built
after 2015 will need to remove 85 percent of the NOx at an annual
investment of $1.5 billion. Full
scale SCR (or catalytic filtration) will be needed for the new units but unique
combinations of technologies will be the best option for the older units.
The world market opportunity combines the revenues for existing NOx
control systems as well as for new plants.
Annual NOx Control
Market for Utilities and
Industrial Plants 2017- 2022 |
|
Segment |
$ Millions/yr. |
Coal-fired power |
|
New SCR systems |
8,000 |
Balance of plant
investments (e.g.) fan upgrades |
5,000 |
Replacement catalyst and
reagents |
4,800 |
Subtotal |
17,800 |
Potential O&M with remote
monitoring |
12,000 |
Coal-fired power total |
29,800 |
Gas turbine and industrial total |
9,000 |
Total all industries |
38,800 |
Important factors shaping the market are:
·
Continuing concern over smog in large cities around the world
·
Retrofit of coal-fired boilers in Asia
·
Large inventory of SCR systems in developed countries
·
CHP and distributed generation
·
Technology developments:
o
Combustion optimization software
o
Improved instrumentation for in furnace measurements
o
Remote monitoring
o
Third party O&M capability
o
New chemicals for reduction and oxidation
o
Catalytic filtration
o
Greenhouse CO2 fertilization with gas engines
Since NOx control requires application of multiple technologies
working together it is desirable to utilize monitoring systems which measure
parameters starting with the amount of fuel being consumed, the performance of
each burner, the quantities of chemicals and the measurement of NOx,
O2, CO, and CO2 at various process points.
Remote monitoring allows access and advice by experts. This then leads to
the opportunity for third party O&M.
Presently, this services is very common for rotating parts such as
turbines. It is being used for
electrostatic precipitator operations.
NOx control offers another segment where third party O&M will
be cost effective. It is a $12
billion /yr. opportunity.
For more information click on
N035 NOx
Control World Market
$125 Billion/yr. Power Plant IoT Instrumentation, Software and Service
Opportunity
World electricity consumption is 25,000 terawatt hours per year. Generation of
this electricity costs $2.5 trillion per year. Machine to machine
communication in combination with remote monitoring and service has the
potential to reduce this cost by 5 percent and create a $125 billion dollar per
year opportunity. This is the latest forecast in a special ongoing
analysis included in
N031 Air and
Water Monitoring: World Market.
The opportunity incorporates, smart instrumentation, component monitoring,
digital data generation at the plant, software programs, remote monitoring,
third party operation and maintenance and a combination of subject matter
experts and data analytics.
Smart Instrumentation
The opportunity is shaped by the ability of sensors to accurately detect the
flow of liquids, gases, air, water and solids. The quality of the flow is
also critical. Continuous emissions monitoring systems measure the air
contaminants such as NOx, SO2 and particulate. New
regulations have added the need to measure mercury in the exhaust gas and
selenium in the wastewater. The temperature, moisture and particulate levels for
lubricating fluids used in the rotating equipment are also important.
The need for accurate injection extends to corrosion and scale inhibitors,
biocides, pH adjusters, polymers for wastewater treatment and many new chemicals
needed for air and water pollution control. These include activated
carbon, lime, limestone, ammonia and urea.
Ambient air and water measurement needs include wind measurement for wind
turbine optimization, ambient air and water measurement in areas surrounding the
plant and many predictive weather measurements for solar and wind operations.
All of these measurements are being enhanced by the development of smart
sensors. Tunable diode lasers allow measurement of O2 at
critical points in the combustion zone. The incorporation of an analysis
function within the instrument itself rather than through the distributed
control system has cost advantages and more importantly shortens response time.
Suppliers of this instrumentation are found in the McIlvaine Air and Water
Monitoring report in many categories and sub categories.
Measurement Categories |
Examples |
Function |
Analysis, extraction,
integration, display, services,
consumables, accessories |
Medium |
Ambient air and water, process
liquids and gases, solids, oil,
injection chemicals |
Properties Measured |
Physical, chemical, electrical,
other |
Measurement Parameters |
Count, weight, volume,
temperature, pressure,
contaminants, viscosity |
Operating Principles |
Chemical, electrochemical,
light, opacity |
Mode of Use |
Continuous, hand held,
laboratory, process |
The opportunity varies widely depending on the fuel source. Coal
represents the largest potential because it is the leading type of generation
and has high needs for measurement.
Instrumentation Market Size by
Medium Measured |
||||||
Fuel Source |
Weather |
Water |
Air |
Process Liquids |
Process Gases |
Solids |
Coal |
S |
H |
H |
M |
M |
H |
Nuclear |
S |
H |
M |
H |
H |
M |
Gas |
S |
M |
H |
S |
S |
S |
Solar |
L |
S |
S |
S |
S |
S |
Wind |
L |
S |
L |
S |
S |
S |
Biomass |
S |
S |
L |
S |
S |
L |
Geothermal |
S |
M |
L |
H |
H |
S |
Hydro |
S |
H |
S |
S |
S |
S |
L= large, M= medium, S= small
Component Monitoring
Condition monitoring of components is well established for lubrication systems
for turbines, compressors, etc. The growth opportunities are in measuring
not only the health but also the operational information of valves, pumps,
filters, separators and other components. Mann + Hummel recognizes this
opportunity and has just invested in a large filtration IoT research center in
Singapore. Pentair, Flowserve and other pump and valve suppliers are
rapidly strengthening their component monitoring capabilities.
Digital Data Generation at the Plant
GE says that coal-fired power plants could be made approximately 4 percent more
efficient with 2.5 percent improvement in efficiencies coming from turbine and
boiler upgrades, and 1.5 percent coming from software improvements. The analysis
also found that applying all potential upgrades to coal-fired power plants can
remove 900 million metric tons of CO2 (11 percent of total coal power
emissions) - more than the annual CO2 output of the United Kingdom
and France combined.
McIlvaine has conducted nine hours of webinars for PacifiCorp with presentations
by GE, Emerson, Siemens and others which pointed the way to large savings with
combustion optimization. The reduction in NOx emissions was
particularly significant.
Software Programs
The software programs include partnerships between power plant system suppliers
and specialized software providers. GE says Predix will enable GE to lead
the next generation of industrial progress, through improved manufacturing
processes and digitally manufactured products, transforming GE into a stronger
and more valuable company. GE believes its digital business will grow GE’s
software and analytics enterprise from $6 billion in 2015 to a top 10 software
company by 2020. GE has purchased NEUCO who has developed neural networks to
control not only the operation of the furnace but also components such as soot
blowers.
General software participants include large companies such as Intel with its
Wind River subsidiary and specialist companies such as OSIsoft and SoftDEL.
Remote Monitoring
The large gas turbine suppliers have remote monitoring centers which primarily
track the health of rotating parts. This is frequently part of the
warrantee program. However, companies such as MHPS are branching out to
monitor more of the plant’s components. MHPS just opened a remote
monitoring center in the Philippines which is monitoring coal-fired power
plants. The service center can also provide assistance to power plants not built
by MHPS. In addition to its data analysis capabilities, the center can also
manage maintenance equipment and dispatch staff in emergency situations. It
will, in addition, serve as a training hub for technicians. Every year, around
200 individuals will be picked from both in and outside the company to transfer
technical expertise on maintenance and management.
There is a huge potential for companies such as MHPS and GE to work with other
suppliers and incorporate hundreds of individual remote monitoring programs.
For example, Nalco operates an around the clock monitoring center on water
quality. If companies such as Mann + Hummel can operate filter monitoring
centers and, if all the results are integrated for analysis and action, it will
greatly improve the support for the operators.
There is a big potential for interconnection of facilities in large utility
organizations. McIlvaine has been involved with a program for Berkshire
Hathaway Energy.
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/decisions/28-energy/1185-4s01
Duke Power has developed central systems which can for example monitor all the
pumps at its various stations.
However, it is shifting away from the traditional centralized proprietary
systems and evolving to support distributed intelligence, interoperability and
IoT. Efforts to develop its smart grid have resulted in the enablement of
these concepts through what the industry calls OpenFMB (Open Field Message Bus).
Third Party Support for Power Plant Operations and Maintenance
Third party operation and maintenance represents the biggest revenue opportunity
for IoT in the power industry.
GE Energy is one of the world’s largest third party providers of plant Operation
and Maintenance services, currently with more than 16,000 MW at 60 sites in 17
countries under O&M contract. Global resources combined with over 20 years of
O&M experience, enable GE to provide complete plant services across the turbine
island and balance of plant—for both GE and non-GE equipment.
Siemens, MHPS, IHI and other turbine suppliers also offer similar services.
There are a number of companies specializing in O&M including large companies
such as Wood and smaller companies such as Ethos Energy and Proenergy.
Uniper and India Power have formed a joint venture to support operations and
maintenance at Indian power plants.
Data Analytics and Subject Matter Experts
The generation of large amounts of data is not of value unless it is properly
analyzed for action. XLMPR recommends hybrid data analytics marrying the
experience based models with ones based on physics and data. The IoT
greatly increases the capability for database models but this data needs to be
molded by experience. Subject matter experts are needed to provide the
niche expertise in each of thousands of areas. The pool of recently
retired people can be tapped for their unique combination of knowledge and
availability for short engagements.
The analysis and forecast of IoT instrumentation, software and service
opportunities in Power Generation is included as a special report in
N031 Air and
Water Monitoring: World Market
Utility E-Alert Tracks Billions of Dollars of New Coal-fired Power Plants on a
Weekly Basis
Here are some Headlines from the Utility E-Alert
UTILITY
E-ALERT
#1303 – December 30, 2016
Table of Contents
COAL – US
• Regional Haze Ruling boosts
Texas Scrubber Market
• NRG Energy, Inc. converts four
of its Power Plants from Coal to Natural Gas
• FPL to retire 250 MW
Coal-fired Cedar Bay Power Plant in Jacksonville, FL December 31
COAL – WORLD
• Korea to close 10 aged
Coal-fired Power Plants by 2025
•
City in China's Shandong Province orders Coal-fired Power Plants to cut output
due to Smog Notice
•
Australia lobbies China-led AIIB to add Coal to lending priorities
• Two Power Plants of 1320 MW to
be installed at Gaddani
• Nalco Partners with NTPC Ltd
on New 1 MTPA Aluminum Smelter in Odisha
• Doosan Heavy wins $2.3 Billion
Contract to build Coal-fired Power Plants in India
• India’s NTPC commissions First
Unit at 4 GW Kudgi Supercritical Thermal Power Plant
•
Duyên Hải-2 has started Construction
•
Duyên Hải-3 (2 x 622.5 MW) and Duyên Hải-3 Extension (660 MW) to be completed in
2019
•
Energa and Enea invite bids to develop Ostroleka C Power Project in Poland
• South Africa’s Kusile Power
Station’s Unit 1 connected to the National Grid
•
Thai Binh 2 Thermal Power Plant 65 Percent Complete
• Ducon receives another FGD
Contract in India
• Mitsubishi Hitachi signs
Supply Contract for FGD System at Ugljevik Thermal Power Plant in West Balkans
• Mahagenco Koradi will install
FGD
• India Environmentalist
forecasts 300 Percent increase in Coal-fired Power
•
Unicon is active in ESPs and other APC in India
The
41F Utility E-Alert
is issued weekly and covers the coal-fired projects, regulations and other
information important to the suppliers. It is $950/yr. but is included in the
$3020
42EI Utility Tracking System
which has data on every plant and project plus networking directories and many
other features.
----------
You can register for our free McIlvaine Newsletters at:
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php?option=com_rsform&formId=5.
Bob McIlvaine
President
847-784-0012 ext. 112
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
www.mcilvainecompany.com