Forecasts and Drivers for Coal, Nuclear, Gas and Renewables – Hot Topic Hour
July 19, 2012
Next Thursday at 10 a.m. Central time, McIlvaine will display forecasts of
future generation by each fuel type for the various regions of the world. The
supporting discussion will analyze the factors on which the forecasts are based.
Variables which could change the forecasts will also be addressed.
Participants will have the opportunity to ask questions relative to specific
countries and to request and view individual country forecasts. During the
meeting there will be access to the McIlvaine Fossil and Renewables market
reports. Some of the topics which will be included are:
• Forecasts of new coal-fired generation in China, India and Vietnam
• Nuclear forecasts for Japan, Germany and China
• Availability and price of natural gas including shale gas supply
• Transmission factors
• Cost of renewables including solar, nuclear, biomass, wind and hydro
• New technologies including oxy combustion, wave, algae and small modular
reactors
• Combining power generation with other processes such as production of liquids
and heat
• Carbon capture and sequestration issues
• Environmental regulations and their influence on future generation by region
The reactor meltdown in Japan is a good example of the difficulty in predicting
future generation selections. Just within the last month there has been a wide
variation of predictions relative to the availability and, more importantly,
price of shale gas in Poland and China.
The influence of future environmental regulations will continually need to be
assessed and changes to the forecasts adjusted accordingly. There are ways that
the utility industry can change public perceptions and the confrontational
relationships with the environmental community and, thus, change the regulatory
impact. A recommended approach will be briefly explained.
This 90-minute webinar is free of charge to subscribers to McIlvaine market
reports, the Utility Environmental Upgrade Tracking System and Power Plant Air
Quality Decisions. The cost for non-subscribers is $400. To register for this
event, click here:
http://www.mcilvainecompany.com/brochures/hot_topic_hour_registration.htm.
McIlvaine Hot Topic Hour Registration
On Thursday at 10 a.m. Central time, McIlvaine hosts a 90 minute web meeting on
important energy and pollution control subjects. Power webinars are free for
subscribers to either Power Plant Air Quality Decisions or Utility Environmental
Upgrade Tracking System. The cost is $125.00 for non-subscribers. Market
Intelligence webinars are free to McIlvaine market report
DATE Non-Subscribers Cost SUBJECT Webinar Type
July 19, 2012 $400.00 Future for Coal, Gas, Nuclear and Renewables (forecasts by
region and discussion of market drivers and regulatory constraints) Market
Intelligence
July 26, 2012 $125.00 Beneficial Byproducts of Coal Combustion and Gasification
Power
August 2, 2012 $125.00 Mercury Control and Removal Status and Cost Power
August 9, 2012 $400.00 Filter Media (forecasts and market drivers for media used
in air, gas, liquid, fluid applications both mobile and stationary) Market
Intelligence
August 16, 2012 $125.00 Report from Coal-gen (highlights of speeches and
exhibitions) Power
August 23, 2012 $125.00 Report from Mega Symposium (highlights of speeches and
exhibitions at this important air pollution conference) Power
August 30, 2012 $400.00 Instrumentation for Air, Gas, Water, Liquids (forecasts
, market shares, growth segments) Market Intelligence
September 6, 2012 $125.00 Production of Fertilizer and Sulfuric Acid at
Coal-fired Power Plants Power
Here are the Headlines for the July 6, 2012 – Utility E-Alert
UTILITY E-ALERT
#1082– July 6, 2012
Table of Contents
COAL – US
EPA finalizing revisions to Ohio State Implementation Plan (SIP)
EPA grants Temporary Stay for San Juan Coal-fired Power Plant
EPA sets Canyon Smog Rule
Court blocks EPA Regional Haze Rule for Oklahoma Coal-fired Power Plants
COAL – WORLD
Aboitiz Power signs $546 Million Deal for construction of Coal-fired Power
Project
Mahagenco to Start Own Coal Washery by 2014
GAS / OIL – US
NJ Company to acquire Salem Power Plant - will build New Gas-fired Power
Station
GAS / OIL – WORLD
Siemens to build 585 MW Combined Cycle Gas-fired Power Plant in Germany
Israel Chemicals to build $320 Million Gas-fired Power Plant
ABB gets US$120 Million Power Project in Iraq
PKN to pick Contractor in Q3 to build 500 MW Gas-fired Power Plant
India's Mahagenco scraps Bids for $843 Million Power Project
BHEL completes 250 MW Advanced Class Gas Turbine Setup at Pragati-III, Delhi,
India
Siemens deploys Two New Gas Turbines for Hail Plant in Saudi Arabia
Gas-fired Erbil Power Plant to boost output 500 MW with GE Technology
BIOMASS
Andritz to supply Biomass Boiler Island to Karlstads Energi, Sweden
CO2
New York Adopts CO2 Emission Limit for Power Plants - Lower than Proposed
Federal Standard
EPA Decides Not to Lower GHG Permitting Thresholds
Congressional Report Finds US Funding for CCS has been Ineffective; Recommends
Other Policy Options
Australia’s Controversial $24/ton Carbon Tax Goes into Effect
Australian Carbon Tax Prompts Closure of Munmorah Coal Power Station, Site of
Carbon Capture Pilot
NUCLEAR
Westinghouse submits Bid to CEZ for AP1000 Power Plant to complete Temelin
Nuclear Units 3 and 4
FPL increasing St. Lucie Nuclear Power Plant Capacity
DOJ Antitrust Division Won't Challenge Nuclear Alliance
BUSINESS
Duke-Progress Merger approved by North Carolina Utilities Regulators
E.ON ends Waste-to-Energy Business Sale Following Low Bids
HOT TOPIC HOUR
“New Developments in Power Plant Air Pollution Control” - Hot Topic on July 12
- Free of Charge
Upcoming Hot Topic Hours
For more information on the Utility Environmental Upgrade Tracking System, click
on: http://www.mcilvainecompany.com/brochures/energy.html#42ei.
Power Plant Air Pollution Orders to Exceed $21 Billion This Year
Thousands of air pollution projects will be initiated this year at the 7,000
coal-fired boilers which are generating electricity around the world. The total
order value will be $21.9 billion as displayed in the McIlvaine Utility
Environmental Tracking System. (www.mcilvainecompany.com)
2012 Power Plant Air Pollution Projects Worldwide
Equipment
Type Installation
Date Value
($ Billions) Average
Value ($ Millions) Number of Projects
New Precipitators 2014 4.9 40 122
Precipitator Upgrades 2013 1.4 20 70
Fabric Filters 2014 0.9 40 22
Bags 2012 0.2 0.4 500
FGD Upgrades 2014 1.2 20 60
New FGD 2015 7.8 60 130
SCR Systems 2014 4.0 40 100
Catalyst 2012 1.5 2 750
Total 21.9
These are large orders ranging up to more than $100 million in some cases. There
are large differences in lead time, so flue gas desulfurization (FGD) orders let
in 2012 will not be installed until 2015. Since the McIlvaine system tracks the
startup date, the date of placement of the purchase order can be calculated. In
fact, the actual P.O. date is often not precise. Utilities place “letters of
intent” or commitments for just the preliminary engineering and later place
orders for the balance of the project.
Many FGD systems have reached old age. The corrosive atmosphere ensures that the
life of components is shortened to less than twenty years. Substantial upgrades
are being undertaken in Europe and the U.S. Most of the new FGD projects are in
Asia.
In the U.S., architect engineers such as Sargent & Lundy, Bechtel and Black &
Veatch are preparing specifications and assisting the end user make selections.
Elsewhere in the world, the end users are more likely to deal directly with the
systems suppliers such as Alstom, Doosan, Hitachi, Babcock & Wilcox and Siemens.
The number of electrostatic precipitator projects greatly exceeds those
employing fabric filters. This makes the power industry unique. Cement,
incineration and steel plants have all shown preferences for fabric filters.
There are a number of NOx control projects in the bidding stage. Most of the
power projects involve selective catalytic reduction (SCR) instead of selective
non-catalytic reduction (SNCR). The projects in Asia mostly involve new power
plants. The projects in the U.S. and Europe are mostly retrofit projects to meet
changing regulations.
For more information on Utility Environmental Upgrade Tracking System, click on:
http://www.mcilvainecompany.com/brochures/energy.html#42ei
Utilities Embrace Solar Power
McIlvaine’s Renewal Energy Projects and Update tracks the incentive programs
introduced by utilities.
PG&E Ranked as Nation’s Top Utility for Solar Installations
A new survey by the Solar Electric Power Association (SEPA) ranks Pacific Gas
and Electric Company (PG&E) as the nation’s top electric utility in the amount
of solar power added to its system in 2011. PG&E is the first in the Annual
Solar Megawatts category of the more than 240 utilities that participated in
SEPA’s 2011 Utility Solar Rankings survey.
“PG&E is pleased to support our customers’ choice to go solar so they can
realize the benefits of solar energy for their homes and businesses,” said Helen
Burt, Senior Vice President of Customer Care for PG&E. “We remain committed to
providing our customers with clean, reliable, and affordable energy, including
an increasing amount of power from large utility-driven solar projects.”
PG&E helped more than 12,000 customers in Northern and Central California
connect 162 MW of solar at their homes and businesses in 2011, bringing the
total number of customer solar installations to more than 63,000. It also
connected 135 MW of new large solar projects for the benefit of all customers.
This includes PG&E’s own expanding solar facilities, which when completed will
deliver 250 MW of clean energy — enough to power about 150,000 average customer
homes.
PSE&G Ranked Second in Nation for Solar Energy
Public Service Electric & Gas (PSE&G) had the second most solar capacity of any
American utility added to its electric system last year, according to Solar
Electric Power Association (SEPA). The designation came from SEPA’s 2011 Utility
Solar Rankings report released in April, which included more than 240 utilities.
In addition, PSE&G ranked ninth in the amount of solar capacity installed last
year per customer,
During 2011, 181 solar megawatts were added in PSE&G’s service territory, a 142
percent increase from 2010. That total includes customer systems and solar
projects that PSE&G developed. PSE&G’s Solar 4 All™ and Solar Loan programs
either installed or helped finance more than 20 percent of the 181-MW total. PSE&G
has placed in the top five in SEPA’s annual survey for four consecutive years.
FirstEnergy’s Ohio Utilities Meet 2012 Benchmarks for In-State Solar Renewable
Energy
FirstEnergy Corp. announced that its Ohio utilities — Ohio Edison, Cleveland
Electric Illuminating Company and Toledo Edison — have met the 2012 benchmarks
for in-state solar renewable energy that were established under Ohio’s energy
law. The benchmarks were met through a successful Request for Proposal (RFP) to
secure 10-year Solar Renewable Energy Credits (SRECs).
In Ohio, FirstEnergy supports the development of solar energy resources by
purchasing SRECs, which represent the environmental attributes of solar
renewable electricity generation. For every megawatt hour of solar renewable
electricity generated, an equivalent amount of SRECs are produced.
The RFP sought and procured the delivery of 1,000 SRECs produced by generating
facilities throughout Ohio for each calendar year beginning in 2012 and
continuing through 2021. There were 38 qualified bids received offering over 15
times the required SRECs being sought under the RFP.
FPL to Reopen Application Period for Solar Photovoltaic Rebate Program
Florida Power & Light Company (FPC) announced that beginning at 8:30 a.m. on
Thursday, May 3, customers interested in installing a solar-powered photovoltaic
(PV) system can apply for 2012 incentive funding.
As part of an ongoing pilot program approved by the Florida Public Service
Commission (PSC) to help reduce energy consumption and peak demand, FPL will
offer PV solar rebates on a first-come, first-served basis for residential and
business customers.
FPL suggests that customers who are interested in applying for the solar rebate
to prepare in advance of May 3 and have all the necessary components of the
application ready. Funds are expected to run out quickly, so interested
customers should plan to apply for rebates as soon as the application period
opens.
For more information on Renewable Energy Projects and Update please visit
http://www.mcilvainecompany.com/brochures/Renewable_Energy_Projects_Brochure/renewable_energy_projects_brochure.htm
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You can register for our free McIlvaine Newsletters at: http://www.mcilvainecompany.com/brochures/Free_Newsletter_Registration_Form.htm.
Bob McIlvaine
President
847 784 0012 ext 112
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
www.mcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
Copyright © 2012 McIlvaine Company. All Rights Reserved
191 Waukegan Road Suite 208 | Northfield | IL 60093
Ph: 847-784-0012 | Fax; 847-784-0061
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