Many Conferences covering Air Filtration in April-June Period
A number of conferences and exhibitions in the second quarter are generating
valuable air filtration data. Some of the industry conferences are included
because of the inlet filters for gas turbine intakes, compressors, and even
control rooms.
Conference Name
Date
Location
China Refrigeration April 8-10 Shanghai, China
LNG 17 April 16-19 Galveston, TX
2013 DUG Midcontinent April 22-24 Tulsa, OK
2013 Texas Alliance April 23-24 Wichita Falls, TX
Interphex April 23-25 NYC, NY
Tappi PaperCon 2013 Apr 27 - May 1 Atlanta, GA
Williston Basin Apr 30 - May 2 Regina, Saskatchewan, Canada
2013 INAMARINE – Shipbuilding Offshore, Machinery & Equipment Expo May 2-4
Jakarta, Indonesia
OTC May 6-9 Houston, TX
AFS Spring Conference May 6-9 Minneapolis, MN
CEMS Users Conference EPRI May 8-9 Raleigh, NC
9th Asia Gas Congress 2013 May 9-10 Beijing, China
ACHEMA Asia May 13-16 Beijing, China
Electric Power May 14-16 Chicago, IL
17th SO2 NOx Hg PM Pollution Control May 16-17 Hangzhou, China
OPC Day Europe May 15-16 Amersfoort, The Netherlands
Reliability and Maintenance May 20-24 Orlando, FL
Geothermal Power Asia Congress 2013 May 21-22 Jakarta, Indonesia
Offshore Technology Asia 2013 May 23-24 Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
2013 DUG Bakken May 29-31 Denver, CO
Power-Gen Europe June 4-6 Vienna, Austria
Norshipping June 4-7 Oslo, Norway
Oil and Gas( OGA) June 5-7 K.L Malaysia
Gas and Oil Expo June 11-12 Calgary, Canada
Air and Waste Management June 25-26 Chicago, IL
The AFS spring conference had many good papers on air filtration subjects. Here
is a summary of the technical program:
TUESDAY, MAY 7, 2013
10:10 am – 11:50 am – Concurrent Session
Water and Process Fluid Filtration, Wenping Li, Ernest Mayer – Co-moderators
□ Sour Water Production and Processing in Oil & Gas Operations, David Engel,
Ph.D.
□ Estimating Municipal Filter Press Cloth Life, Ernest Mayer, Ph.D.
□ A Review of the Rotary Pressure Filter for the Filtration of a Liquefied Gas
Slurry, Barry Perlmutter
□ How to Compare Performance of Domestic Pool and Spa Filters, Christophe
Peuchot
Filter Testing, Thad Ptak – Moderator
□ Calibration Filter, KC Kwok
□ Zen of Filter Classes, R. Vijayakumar
□ Impact of Residential HVAC Filtration on Indoor Concentration of Submicron
Particulate Matter, Thad Ptak
□ Test Method for Measurement of Performance Degradation of Electrostatically
Enhanced Filter Media, Thad Ptak
Practical Application of Filtration Media, Ed Gregor – Moderator
□ Wetlaid Media and its Application to the Filtration Industry, Andrew Goodby
□ Spinal Wound & Pleated Membrane Construction Secrets, Peter Cartwright
□ The Advantages of Nylon Nonwovens in Filtration, Albert Ortega
□ Monofilament Filtration Fabric, Robert Hamilton
1:25 pm – 3:05 pm – Concurrent Sessions
Topics in Filtration and Monitoring, Bill Laidlaw – Moderator
□ New Filtration Product Offering for High Temperature Fluid Applications
Utilizing Z-Plex Technology, Travis Stifter
□ Aspire Hydrophilic PTFE Eliminates the Need for Pre-wetting, Chris Keller
□ Technique for Measuring the Particle Retention of Liquid Filters to 10
Nanometers, Gary Van Schooneveld
□ Heavy Metals Removal Using Bio-Based Adsorbents, Chuanfang Yang
Simulation & Modeling, Martin Lehmann – Moderator
□ Virtual Filter Media Development – Highlights from Eight Years of Experience,
Martin Lehmann and Alexander Traut
□ Improved Modeling of Loading Kinetics in Detailed Filter Media Simulations
with Geodict, Jurgen Becker
□ Coupling Different Size Scales in the Numerical Simulation of Filtration
Processes, Johannes Weber
□ Modeling and Numerical Simulation on the Filter Element Scale, Ralf Kirsch
Filter Media, Mark Willingham, Rob Bender – Co-moderators
□ Advances in Filtration Technology Using Sintered Metal Filters, Ken Rubow
□ Cleaning and Validation of Metal Filters, Sue Regnolds
□ The Advantage of Bekipor ST for Use in Solid/Liquid Filtration, Jeremie De
Baerdemaeker
□ Pressure Drop, Filtration Efficiency and Cleanability of Woven and Nonwoven
Multi-layer Filter Media, Markus Knefel
3:20 pm – 5:00 pm – Concurrent Sessions
Filtration & Adsorption, Shagufta Patel and Michael Harenbrock – Co-moderators
□ Filtration and Separation for Zero Emission Vehicles, Michael Harenbrock
□ Gas Cleaning for Particles and Molecules; from Filtration to Adsorption, Heinz
Fissan
□ Polymer-based Spherical Activated Carbon as High Performance Material for
Liquid Phase Filtration Applications, Christian Schrage
□ Developing Ion Exchange Membrane from Waste Expanded Polystyrene for Heavy
Metal Removal from Industrial Waste Water, Ihsan Uluturk
Measurement Techniques and Testing, Friedemann Hahn – Moderator
□ Filter System for Space Habitat: Concept Design and Evaluation, R. Vijayakumar
□ Reducing Complexity and Cost Through Technology: Direct Formed 2- and 3-D
Filter Structures for Use in Transportation and Industrial Filtration, Brent
Dillie
□ Determination of Fractional Efficiency and Loading of Compressed Air Filters
in Overpressure up to 7 Bar, Martin Schmidt
□ Measurement Techniques and Data Evaluation Procedures for Filter Testing with
Polydisperse Agglomerates and Aggregates, Heinz Fissan
Application of Nanofibers, George Chase – Moderator
□ Permeability, Porosity and Capture Efficiency of Filter Media with Recycled
PET Nanofiber Yarns, Kitchaport Nartettamrongsutt
□ Alumina Nanofiber Membranes, Jonathan Rajala
□ Effect of Solution Properties on Electrospun PdO-TiO2 Nanofiber Morphology,
Laila Shahreen
WEDNESDAY, MAY 8, 2013
10:10 am – 11:50 am – Concurrent Sessions
Solid & Liquid Separation I, David Engel – Moderator
□ Filtration of Cleaning and Degreasing Baths with Automatic Filtration System
Prior to Cataphoretic Painting of Car Bodies, Steffan Strasser
□ Suspended Solids, Fouling and Column Protection Using Separation Technologies,
Scott Williams
□ Reduction of Cake Resistance with Filter Aids: Improved Filterability of
Hydrolyzed Biomass Suspensions, Antti Hakkinen
□ Novel Sprial Element Membrane Applications, Scott Yaeger
Oil-Mist Separation, Ben Mullins – Moderator
□ A New Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) Model for Coalescence Filtration,
Ryan Mead-Hunter
□ Field Testing of CCV Filters in On-and Off-Highway Applications, Arne Bredin
□ The Influence of Soot on a Micro and Macro Scale in CCV Filter Systems, Ryan
Mead- Hunter
□ Discontinuous Filtration and Soot Measurement in Filters – Towards a More
Realistic Testing Method for CCV Filters, Ben Mullins
Gas-Solid Separation, Wilson Poon – Moderator
□ Development of International Standard Test Methods for Gas Turbine Inlet
Filters, Bruce McDonald
□ The Impact of a Newly Developed Testing Protocol for Gas Turbine Intake Air
Filtration Systems, Bob Burkhead – Blue Heaven
□ Laboratory Test for Water and Salt Water Coalescence/Migration which Mimics
In-situ Conditions for Gas Turbine Filters, Al Vatine
□ Removal of Water Droplets from Intake Air, Wilson Poon
1:25 pm – 3:05 pm Concurrent Sessions
Solid & Liquid Separation II, Shagufta Patel – Moderator
□ Separation of Water Dispersions in Diesel Fuel Using Superhydrophobic Tubes of
Nanofibers, Goutham Viswanadam and George Chase
□ Innovative Coalescence Media Studies in Water Removal Applications from
Lubrication Oil, Ruijun Chen, Ph.D.
□ Demulsifier-free Slop-oil Emulsion Destabilization, Ingemar Quintero
□ Filter Media for Removal for Emulsified Water from Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel,
Yiren Wu
Cabin Air Filtration, Cedric Dackam – Moderator
□ Electret vs. Nanofibers for Automotive Cabin Air Filtration, Andreas Seeberger
□ Investigation on the Filtration Efficiency of Vehicle Cabin Air Filters
Affecting In-Cabin to On-Roadway (I/O) Ultrafine Particle Concentration Ratios,
Bin Xu
□ Media Concepts for Meeting the Recent Challenges in Automotive Cabin Air
Filtration, Dr. Andreas Scope
□ Validation of a Soot Generator and Characterization of Air Filtration Media
Using Soot as a Test Aerosol, Christine Stanfel, Ph.D.
Latest and Greatest I, Rob Bender – Moderator
Panel Discussion (30 minutes)
□ Ed Gregor
□ David Engel
□ Peter Cartwright
□ Klaas De Waal
Presentations (12 minutes each)
□ Carolina Filters Inc., Sales and Service Capabilities – Sue Reynolds
□ Mental Manufacturing by Olds Filtration – Don Olds
□ Kaydon Custom Filters – Coalescing Success with Novel Cartridge Design -
Ruijun Chen
□ Cerex Advanced Spunbond Fabrics – John Hancock
□ Parker BVC Effective Filtration and Disinfection Treatment System – Jackie
Gallagher
□ Purolator-Facet-Benefits of GKN Sintered Metal Membrane - Dave Raider
3:20 pm – 5:00 pm Concurrent Sessions
Solid-Liquid Separation, Bharath Raghavan – Moderator
□ Static Control Filter Media: Investigation of the Impact on Electro-static
Charging of Hydraulic Fluids Van Boven
□ Fundamentals of Filtration in Gas Processing Plants – A Filter is just a
Filter, Right?, Ken Winston
□ SiC Membranes – Economic Solutions for Extreme Water Applications – Kathy
Radosevich
Filtration in Transportation, Barry Verdegan and Larry Hollingsworth –
Co-moderators
□ Case Study: Impact of Poor Diesel Fuel Quality on an Urban Fleet, Barry
Verdegan
□ Keep Running: Bulk Diesel Fuel Filtration, Why the WW Fuel Charter may not be
Clean Enough and the Importance of Inlet Filtration, Scott GrossBauer
□ Determination of Water Droplet Size in Diesel and Aviation Fuels, Larry
Hollingsworth
□ Complete Filtration for Non-vehicle Liquefied Propane Gas, Janelle Hampton
Latest and Greatest II, Rob Bender – Moderator
Presentations Continued
□ Sigma Design – Separation Technology, Electro-Mechanical Design & Build
Solutions for Products, Pilots and Test Systems – Jerry Lynch
□ Sefar – Joel Crafton
□ Nexo-Efficiency Improvement in the Process Industry – David Engel
□ Ahlstrom – Helping Customers Stay Ahead using Ahlstrom Captimax – Andrew
Goodby
□ Fluid Measurement Technologies and CT Associates - Particle Size and
Concentration Standards for Sub – 100nm Applications – David Blackford & Gary
Van Schooneveld
□ Cerex Advanced Spunbond Nylon Fabrics – John Hancock
□ Porex – Tubular Membrane Filtration for Metal Precipitation to WasteWater –
Doug Frick
□ Jonell-the Rapid-LOKTM Sealing System – Hebron Burkhall
□ TSI: Component Filter Test System: CFTS Model 3150 – Tim Johnson
THURSDAY, MAY 9, 2013
9:30 am – 10:45 am – Concurrent Sessions
Novel Separation Technologies, Mathias Stolarski– Moderator
□ Characterization of Properties and Separation Efficiency of Layered Nonwoven
Filter Media, Mathias Stolarski
□ Advanced Treatment Technologies for Food Processing Wastewater Treatment,
Peter Cartwright
□ Engineered Biofiltration: Destroying Persistent Non-point Source Pollutants
using Engineered Nano-glass Adsorbents Sold under the Trade Name Osorb,
Stephen Spoonamore
□ Introduction to Hollow Fiber Membranes, Sandra Iverson
Filtration in Transport II, Barry Verdean and Larry Hollingsworth– Co-moderator
□ Coalescence of Submerged Water Droplets in Diesel by Electro wetting,
Abdulwahab Aljuhani
□ The Experimental Performance of Isolated Multi-layer Media in Gas-Liquid
Coalescence Filtration, Yiren Wu
□ On the Relevance of SAE J1488 and Mono-olein Addition for Evaluating the
Performance of Fuel-Water Separators (III), Yan Li
□ Voice of the Customer: Why We Filter Fuels and Lubes for Common Rail Fuel
Systems, Barry Verdegan
CFR Public Session – Integrative Filtration Research and Filter Loading, Jing
Wang – Moderator
□ Integrative Filtration Research at the Center for Filtration Research (CFR),
David Pui
□ Determining Dust Cake Porosity Based on Particle Distribution through Brownian
Simulation, Gus Linquist
□ Filter Loading of Agglomerate Particles, Da Ren Chen
10:55 am – 12:10 pm Concurrent Sessions
Filter Testing II, Christophe Peuchot– Moderator
□ New International Standard Test Methods of Aerospace Filters, Christophe
Peuchot
□ Long Term Stability of the Calibration Process of Optical Particle Counting
Systems, Michael Schumacher
□ Filter Cut Point and Pore Size Distribution using Certified Reference
Microspheres, Graham Rideal
Air and Gas Filtration, Andrew Traut – Moderator
□ Modeling Depth and Surface Dust-Loading in Pleated Air Filters, Hooman
Tafreshi
□ Comparison of the Particle Penetration through Using Different Air Filter Test
Methods, Tim Johnson
□ Meltblown – A Unique Technology in Air and Liquid Filtration, Christine Sun
CFR Public Session – Filtration of Liquid-borne Nanoparticles, Viruses and Fly
Ash, Da Ren Chen – Moderator
□ Liquid-borne Nanoparticles Filtration, Tsz Yan Ling
□ Measurement of Airborne Viruses and its Application in Virus Aerosol
Filtration Research, Zhilio Zu
□ Characterization of Fly Ash Collected in Filtration Systems in Waste
Incineration Plants, Jing Wang
Air Filter Market Revenues Expanding Due to Higher Quality Substitutions
The market for filters used to treat indoor air will be rise to over $6.7
billion this year. Market growth is in part due to the upgrading of filtration
quality. This is the conclusion reached by the McIlvaine Company in Air
Filtration and Purification World Markets.
($ Millions)
Subject
Electronic 621
G 1-4 1,064
Gas Phase 775
H 10-17 952
M 5-6, F 7-9 3,376
Total 6,788
There has been a steady penetration of the medium efficiency M5-6 F7-9 filters
into the residential and commercial markets. This efficiency segment is now
three times larger than the low efficiency G1-4.
Now there is a trend for the high efficiency H10-17 to expand at the expense of
the medium efficiency filters. One of the biggest applications for this
conversion is gas turbine intakes. A March McIlvaine Webinar, included as part
of the report, documents the lower maintenance and longer operation of gas
turbines when high efficiency inlet filters are purifying the combustion air.
These filters cost as much as 400 percent of the medium efficiency filters, but
the return on investment (ROI) has been a matter of weeks in some cases.
The speakers pointed out that the economic advantage is site specific. If the
turbine is going to operate only on peaking service or is operating in a
pristine environment, the high ROI may not be achieved.
Another upgrade trend has been to replace the conventional particulate filter
with a filter that removes both particulate and gas phase contaminants. The
addition of an activated carbon coating on the filter will result in odor and
acid gas capture.
Electronic air filters that are included in the report are those which have air
intake and discharge. The report does not include the portable ionizing filters
which are popular but greatly handicapped by the air flow patterns in the area.
The duct based electronic filters are popular with owners of large residences
and commercial buildings. The periodic filter replacement is eliminated.
Media developments such as membranes and nanofibers continue to offer better
efficiency at equivalent pressure loss. In semiconductor facilities, the energy
consumed by the filters is a significant percentage of the total plant
requirement.
For more information on Air Filtration and Purification World Markets click on:
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=48#n022
World Cleanroom Space will Increase by Six Million Square Feet This Year
By 2014 there will be 131 million ft2 of cleanroom space in use across the
world. This will be an increase of five percent over 2013. This is the latest
forecast in Cleanrooms World Markets published by the McIlvaine Company.
Cleanroom Space in Use
(Million ft2)
World Region 2013 2014
Africa 1 1
CIS 2 2
East Asia 57 60
Eastern Europe 1 2
Middle East 3 3
NAFTA 32 33
South & Central America 3 3
West Asia 3 4
Western Europe 23 23
Total 125 131
This is net space in operation and reflects the retirements of older plants. The
semiconductor industry generally builds new plants rather than renovating
existing ones. This is due to contamination concerns.
Asia has surpassed the other regions due to its dominance in flat panel
displays, hard disk drives, storage, and photovoltaics. China, Taiwan and South
Korea are leading investors in semiconductor chip plants.
The semiconductor industry is the largest user of cleanrooms worldwide. The
amount of cleanroom space is now at near record highs. Semiconductor sales for
2012 reached $291.6 billion, the industry’s third-highest yearly total ever, but
a decrease of 2.7 percent from the record total of $299.5 billion set in 2011.
Some segments are in decline but are offset by growth in others; facing
competition from tablets, smart phones, solid state drives (SSD), and global
hard disk drives (HDD). Market revenue in 2013 will decline more than 10 percent
this year. Revenue is set to drop to $32 billion in 2013.
The pharmaceutical industry continues to show steady growth. Much of the new
growth is taking place outside the U.S. and Europe. The pharmaceutical industry
in Russia has been witnessing a double-digit growth rate recently. According to
the new regulations that will be enforced in Russia from 2014, it will be
imperative for the pharmaceutical companies to pursue GMP-compliant production
procedures.
Over the last decade the solar industry has had the highest percentage growth.
Photovoltaic Module shipments in 2013 are forecast to exceed 34,000 MW, up 10
percent over 2012.
For more information on World Cleanroom Markets, click on: http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=73
World GDP Updates is a Monthly part of the Air Filter Report
Subscribers to the Air Filtration and Purification Markets receive monthly
updates in a number of industries. They also receive a monthly update of GDP
changes for regions around the world. Here is the April 2013 Update:
AMERICAS
UNITED STATES
The picture of the American economy has improved -- looking forward and
backward.
Economic output in last year's fourth quarter was revised slightly higher,
putting the nation's growth rate for all of 2012 at a modest 2.2 percent.
The Commerce Department said that U.S. gross domestic product, or total goods
and services produced, expanded at an annual rate of 0.4 percent in the fourth
quarter, after adjusting for inflation. That is down from 3.1 percent in the
third quarter, but better than the 0.1 percent real GDP growth in the
government's previous estimate of fourth-quarter activity.
The weakness in the fourth quarter output was exaggerated by an unusually big
drop in federal defense spending and a sharp reduction in inventory
accumulation. Real personal spending actually picked up a bit in the fourth
quarter, and housing and nonresidential investments both saw strong gains.
Corporate profits grew by a healthy 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter from the
previous quarter. And consumers' after-tax incomes surged at year's end along
with dividend and bonus payments, ahead of expected tax increases, the Commerce
data show.
Since the recovery officially began in mid-2009, the underlying growth rate of
the economy has been a little above 2 percent, considered by many economists as
sluggish given the deep recession. But this year's opening quarter is looking
much better.
Despite the fiscal head winds of higher payroll taxes and government spending
cuts, the U.S. economy is set to grow 3.5 percent in the first quarter,
according to a new forecast by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development, a group of mainly advanced economies.
The OECD cited the Federal Reserve's stimulus policy, saying that "monetary
easing appears to be feeding through to the real economy as household
consumption has picked up and the housing sector has begun to rebound."
Many private economists are not quite that bullish, uncertain about the effects
of higher taxes on consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of American
economic activity.
The latest OECD forecast sees U.S. GDP growth in the second quarter slipping
back to 2 percent as fiscal spending cuts weigh on the economy.
Still, the near-term outlook for the U.S., as well as some other major
economies, has brightened in recent weeks.
The OECD predicted that Japan's economy, the world's third largest, would expand
3.2 percent in the first quarter, thanks to fiscal and monetary stimulus.
Germany, the fourth-biggest economy, is expected to rebound as well, with its
GDP advancing 2.3 percent in the first quarter, even as several other major
Eurozone countries remain stuck in the mud.
China, the world's second-largest economy behind the U.S., is likely to grow
well above 8 percent in the first half of this year, the OECD said.
ASIA
CHINA
China's annual rate of economic growth likely nudged higher in the first three
months of 2013 versus the last quarter of 2012, with fixed asset investment and
factory output growth in double digits cementing a mild rebound, according to a
Reuter’s poll.
Evidence of a second successive quarter of rising year-on-year growth will
further reinforce the view of investors that China's government has successfully
engineered a recovery from 2012's 13-year low of 7.8 percent that is gaining
traction.
Meanwhile with the annual rate of consumer inflation expected to ease to 2.4
percent from February's 10-month high of 3.2 percent, the urgency for
policymakers to begin tightening monetary conditions at an early stage in the
recovery cycle is reduced.
"We estimate GDP grew at a faster year-on-year pace of 8.1 percent in Q1,"
analysts at China International Capital Corp (CICC) wrote in a note to clients,
outlining their calls for the March data cycle.
That is above the 8.0 percent consensus of 19 economists polled by Reuters and
is driven largely by expectations of a stronger than anticipated contribution to
growth of real estate sales.
CICC analysts calculate that property sales will contribute about one percentage
point more to growth in Q1 than in Q4 last year, offsetting slowing growth in
wholesale, retail and other industries.
Retail sales growth has been curtailed in recent months since the government
launched an internal austerity drive at the end of last year, designed to cut
down excessive banqueting and gift-giving that is often linked to corruption.
Economists in the Reuters poll expect retail sales to have expanded by 12.5
percent in March, slightly higher than the 12.3 rate seen in the combined
January-February period, but still around 2-3 percentage points lower than
typically seen through 2012
Fixed asset investment, closely tied to real estate transactions, has seen a
gentle upswing since around the middle of last year when China's Communist Party
government decided to take action to underpin economic growth hit by faltering
demand for the country's exports
Gross exports account for around a third of economic output in China and a drop
off in orders as the United States and the European Union - the country's two
biggest customers - dealt with their own economic problems was felt through the
Chinese factory sector.
Fixed asset investment is forecast to have expanded at an annual pace of 21.3
percent year-to-date in March, a whisker higher than the 21.2 percent pace in
the first two months of 2013.
The downside risks to economic growth, however, are similarly tied to real
estate, investment in which was worth 13.8 percent of GDP in 2012 and directly
impacts around 40 other business sectors in the economy.
Rising real estate prices, alongside rising fixed asset investment, have sparked
concerns that home costs could start to spiral out of control and lead the
government to declare that a raft of measures to calm frothy prices must be
strictly enforced
That has led investors to start fretting that tighter property policies could
constrain the overall economy.
That is a significant risk given that construction was the main driving force
behind a rise in the fast-growing services sector of the economy in March,
according to a survey of purchasing managers.
The real estate crackdown was one of the key reasons cited by Bank of
America/Merrill Lynch in late March when it cut its Q1 annual growth forecast to
7.9 percent from 8.3 percent.
INDIA
Finance Minister P Chidambaram said the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the
country will grow by a little over 6 percent in the fiscal year 2013-14 and the
revenue targets would be met. He also noted that the revenue growth of the FY
2012-13, which stands at 16.7 percent, was "commendable".
SINGAPORE
Singapore's economy probably stalled in the first quarter of 2013, hurt by a
sharp contraction in manufacturing that offset improved performances by services
and construction.
According to the median estimate of economists polled by Reuters, the
city-state's GDP likely expanded by 0.2 percent in January to March from a year
ago, slowing from the 1.5 percent growth recorded in the last three months of
2012.
On a annualized quarter-on-quarter basis, Singapore's GDP probably grew by 1.0
percent after seasonal adjustments, down from 3.3 percent in October-December.
Bank of America's Southeast Asia economist Chua Hak Bin said ongoing government
measures to make it harder for employers to recruit low-cost workers from abroad
has hurt Singapore's manufacturing sector more than services, as seen from the
weak industrial production figures for January and February.
EUROPE / AFRICA / MIDDLE EAST
BULGARIA
Bulgaria cut its economic growth forecast for this year to one percent because
of low domestic consumption and high unemployment.
The economy will expand 1.8 percent in 2014 and 2.9 percent in 2015 after
growing 0.8 percent in 2012, the Finance Ministry in Sofia said in its
three-year fiscal plan published on its website. The previous government, which
resigned on February 20 after protests against high utility bills turned
violent, had forecast economic growth of 1.2 percent under a pessimistic
scenario and 1.9 percent under an optimistic one.
President Rosen Plevneliev appointed an interim government led by Marin Raikov
on March 12 to organize and hold early elections on May 12. Bulgaria survived
the euro-area debt crisis without borrowing from abroad and sustained tight
spending policies, which led to anti-austerity protests.
This year’s forecast is based on “declining domestic consumption observed at the
end of 2012, which will continue in the beginning of 2013, as well as on
expectations of increased exports” as the European economy recovers in the
second half of the year, the ministry said.
Unemployment is expected to rise this year to more than 13 percent and fall to
12.8 percent in 2014, the ministry said. The number of jobless people rose to 12
percent in February, according to the Employment Agency.
The interim government raised this year’s budget deficit forecast to 1.4 percent
of gross domestic product from 1.3 percent, after a gap of 0.5 percent in 2012,
the ministry said. The shortfall is forecast at 1.3 percent in 2014, one percent
in 2015 and 0.8 percent in 2016.
The country plans to sell domestic bonds worth as much as 1.3 billion lev ($864
million) a year from 2014 to 2016 to finance the budget, public infrastructure
projects and repay debt, the ministry said.
The next government will need to sell bonds on global markets to redeem $1.08
billion in global bonds due in 2015, according to the ministry. Bulgaria’s
public debt was 17.6 percent of GDP in 2012.
Bulgaria’s average inflation will slow to 1.8 next year from 2.4 in 2012.
Foreign direct investment is estimated at €1.578 billion ($2.1 billion) this
year, after €1.48 billion in 2012, the ministry said.
“The priority of the interim Cabinet in terms of fiscal and budget policy is to
guarantee financial stability and the long-term sustainability of public
finances,” the ministry said.
ESTONIA
Estonia raised next year’s economic-growth forecast as exports in the newest
euro-area member resume their expansion and wage growth boosts domestic demand.
Gross domestic product will probably expand 3.6 percent in 2014, more than last
August’s 3.4 percent forecast, the Finance Ministry, based in the capital,
Tallinn, said in an e-mailed outlook. It kept this year’s projection at 3
percent.
Estonia, which adopted the euro in 2011, has weathered Europe’s debt crisis as
Swedish and Finnish demand for its electronics and wood products helped its
economy recover from a 20 percent contraction in the wake of Lehman Brothers
Holdings Inc.’s 2008 demise. GDP expanded 3.2 percent last year, the European
Union’s third-fastest pace behind Latvia and Lithuania.
The budget deficit will probably widen to 0.5 percent of GDP this year from a
preliminary 0.3 percent in 2012, the Finance Ministry said. That’s less than the
0.7 percent shortfall set in this year’s budget. The gap may be 0.1 percent in
2014, the ministry said.
Consumer prices will probably rise an average 3.4 percent this year, less than
the 3.5 percent advance seen in August and last year’s 3.9 percent increase,
according to the ministry. Inflation may slow to 2.8 percent next year, in line
with the previous forecast, it said.
NIGERIA
The rebasing of Nigeria's GDP, which is expected to increase the estimated size
of Africa's second largest economy by around 40 percent, is likely to be delayed
until next year, the head of the statistics bureau said recently.
The recalculation will enable Nigeria to join the ranks of middle-income
countries and put it much closer in size to South Africa, the continent's most
developed economy. It will also make it an even bigger draw for foreign
investors seeking a slice of Africa's fast growth rates.
But several deadlines to implement the changes have been missed, with the latest
being the fourth quarter of this year.
"It is unlikely that even the target of the last quarter (this year) we will
make it," Director General of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Yemi Kale
told Reuters.
"I underestimated how much work needs to be done ... I think everyone
understands that this is very, very crucial and has to be done properly," Kale
said when explaining the delay.
Most governments overhaul gross domestic product calculations about every five
years to reflect changes in output and consumption, such as mobile phones and
the Internet. Nigeria has not done so since 1990.
The rebasing is expected to add about 40 percent to Nigeria's GDP, which would
boost the economy of Africa's top oil producer from roughly $250 billion to
around $350 billion.
That brings it very close to South Africa's currently $385 billion economy. And,
with a growth rate of over 6 percent a year, compared with 3 percent in South
Africa, Nigeria may eventually overtake its rival to seize the top spot.
Some economists warn that a sharp increase in the size of Nigeria's economy will
mean slower growth.
"You'd expect that the bigger the economy, the slower the growth ... but I don't
think it is as easy as that," Kale said.
"Regardless of what our GDP is ... we are still going to be small enough to
produce even sharper growth rates."
Sectors like telecommunications, construction, hotels and entertainment should
get a greater weighting after rebasing but agriculture, which currently makes up
around 40 percent of GDP and 60 percent of jobs, is likely to decrease in
influence.
"Growth in agriculture is ... largely subsistence, largely labor intensive, so
there is a limit to how much you can grow. We know that capital intensive
technology probably generates more output than labor intensive technology," Kale
said.
He said the oil and gas sector, which contributes around 80 percent of
government revenues, is expected to maintain a similar weighting of around 15
percent.
A larger estimated economy would most likely boost interest in Nigerian stocks,
especially goods companies looking to unlock the consumer potential of Africa's
most populous country.
It will also improve Nigeria's debt to GDP ratio, currently around 16 percent.
But Nigeria's tax revenues, seen as woeful for a country of this size, will look
even smaller.
Foreign aid donors may also find it harder to justify giving support to Nigeria
if it becomes a middle-income state.
Despite roaring growth rates, 61 percent of Nigerians - or 100 million people -
still live in absolute poverty.
"It is very clear that middle-income is growing, it is very clear that
consumption is improving. The major problem is ensuring that this is broad
based," Kale said.
RUSSIA
Russia's economy expanded by a less-than-expected one percent in the first
quarter of 2013, which is likely to force a cut in the growth forecast for the
full year, Economy Minister Andrei Belousov said recently.
"The results of the first quarter seem to be worse (than expected)," Belousov
told journalists on the way to Hanover as part of an official visit, adding that
growth in gross domestic product in the first quarter was probably around one
percent.
He said the ministry would cut the 2013 GDP forecast to below 3 percent in a
conservative scenario or to around 3.2 percent in an optimistic one.
The ministry had earlier estimated the economy was likely to grow by 3.6 percent
this year. It warned at the end of March that it would probably cut its GDP
forecast for 2013.
"I can say for sure that in our (new) forecast for 2013 we will cut estimates
for exports of natural gas, (and) investment estimates will be lowered.
Consequently, the pace of GDP growth will also be lowered," Belousov said.
President Vladimir Putin said inflation is likely to exceed 6.3 percent this
year, surpassing an economy ministry forecast of up to 6 percent.
Putin spoke hours after Belousov said the ministry would keep its 5 percent to 6
percent inflation forecast for the year, counting on a slowing rate in consumer
price rises in the coming months. Annual inflation came in at 7 percent in
March.
"Looking at it now, we can reach 5.8 percent to 6 percent for the year,"
Belousov added, echoing estimates by the Russian central bank. But Putin said in
Hanover that inflation would be "slightly bigger" than 6.2 percent to 6.3
percent.
Consumer prices often stabilize or fall in the summer months, when supply of
fruit and vegetables increases.
SPAIN
Spain will revise down its economic growth forecast for 2013 and seek more time
from the European Union to reduce its budget deficit as recession cuts deeper
than previously expected, a government source told Reuters.
Spain's gross domestic product (GDP) will be forecast to shrink by one percent,
rather than 0.5 percent, the source said, adding that the government intended to
shift emphasis to growth rather than deficit reduction.
Span is negotiating with the European Commission for more time to bring its
deficit within 3 percent of GDP, something it is currently expected to do by
2014, the source said.
Spain will increase its 2013 deficit target to 6 percent of GDP, from an
existing forecast of 4.5 percent. The figures on growth and the deficit could
still vary by one or two decimal points, depending on the outcome of talks with
the Commission, the source said.
The Spanish government is now trying to balance control of state finances with
more growth-oriented policies, the source said.
"We're looking into finding a middle way. In this respect, having some leeway on
the deficit targets would be a good message to send to the markets."
If the country is given one extra year, the deficit-cutting path will be 6
percent of GDP in 2013, 4.5 percent in 2014 and 3 percent in 2015, the source
said, adding this was the most likely outcome of the negotiations.
If it is given two extra years, the deficit target for 2013 would then be
slightly higher than 6 percent and the path would be significantly eased to
reach the 3 percent target in 2016, the source explained.
Spain reported a deficit of 6.98 percent of GDP in 2012, excluding the cost of
propping up its ailing banks, missing its EU-agreed target, of 6.3 percent, for
the second year in a row.
Although the softer deficit targets might allow more room for pro-growth
policies, the new goals will add pressure to Spain's already tough funding
program for this year as the government will have to finance the higher budget
gap.
Spain may still be over-estimating its growth potential as the Bank of Spain,
the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund expect the economy
to contract by around 1.5 percent this year.
The source said the program of reforms for the next three years that Madrid will
send to the Commission along with the new figures will invalidate those
forecasts.
The document will include a renewed commitment to deepen the reform of the
public pensions system, create an independent fiscal authority and take new
steps on economic liberalization.
Madrid hopes these measures will boost activity and help the economy grow by one
percent in 2014, the source said.
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