November 2015 - Fabric Filter-Precipitator Insights 57

It is now possible to precisely segment and predict markets, identify the prospects, and track the most important projects.

A few hundred companies make most of the flow control and treatment purchasing decisions. McIlvaine is identifying them and reporting on their activities.

Detailed forecasting of markets, prospects and projects provides the following benefits:

Improve decisions on allocation of direct sales, promotion and development expenditures

Purchases of fabric filter systems will exceed $8 billion in 2015. One hundred thirty-three companies will account for more than $4 billion in purchases. Steel, stone and power industries comprise two-thirds of the entire market. These three industries are relatively consolidated, so by tracking the activities of the major producers, the supplier reaches the majority of the market.

The following chart shows purchases by individual companies and groups. The list is ranked by 2015 contribution to purchases. The largest individual purchaser is Eskom with 10 percent of the system purchases.

Fabric Filter Purchases 2015
Company	% of 2015 Fabric Filter Market	Application	% High Temp
50 Power Companies with 2015 Purchases	20	Coal-fired	90
Eskom	10	Coal-fired	90
Cement Companies, ranked 7-50	5	Cement	60
Top 10 Mining Companies in 2015	4	Mining	60
Top 10 Chemical Companies in 2015	4	Chemical	40
Steel Companies, ranked 2-6	3.3	Steel	60
Top 10 WTE in 2015	3	WTE	95
Arcelor Mittal	1.3	Steel, Coal-fired Iron Ore	50
Lafarge	1.2	Cement	60
Holcim	1.2	Cement	60
CNEM	1.2	Cement	60
Anhui Conch	1.2	Cement	60
Total (133 Companies)	55.1		60

The cement industry accounts for over 20 percent of fabric filter purchases. The 2014 production was 4.2 billion tons. Lafarge accounted for 5 percent of the total production. Lafarge accounts for 1.25 percent of the total fabric filter purchases. Holcim, CNBM and Ahui Conch each purchase more than 1 percent of the collectors and bags.

World crude steel production reached 1,662 million tons (Mt) for the year 2014, up by 1.2 percent compared to 2013. Arcelor Mittal produced 6 percent of the total, whereas the next eight companies average 3 percent each.

ArcelorMittal purchases a high percentage of the total fabric filters because of its involvement in several industries. It has both iron ore and metallurgical coal reserves and is among the largest iron ore producers in the world. Iron ore mining operations are located in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Liberia, Bosnia, Ukraine, Algeria and Kazakhstan. In Canada, the company is developing a large Greenfield project on Baffin Island. Metallurgical coal mining operations are located in the United States and Kazakhstan.

The potential in the power industry is huge. Ninety percent of coal-fired power plants still use precipitators. If all power plants converted to fabric filtration, the investment would be $80 billion just for the hardware and over $200 billion for the installed systems. The systems would clean 8 billion cfm of flue gas and would require 4 billion square feet of filter bags. The challenge is to determine how fast and how much capacity will switch. The potential in China is the largest, but this year Eskom in South Africa will be the biggest purchaser.

The large purchasers such as Arcelor Mittal are moving toward global sourcing. One reason is to determine total cost of ownership for products and services purchased. Individual plants without the analytical resources are forced to buy based on lowest price. The companies who pursue these large purchasers and can demonstrate lowest cost of ownership will boost sales and margins.

The fact that power plants in many different countries have shifted to fabric filters is indicative of the most important development in the history of the industry.

There is great concentration among OEMs. FLSmidth supplies a very significant percentage of filters for their cement kiln systems. However, they make both collectors and bags. Other kiln suppliers are major purchasers of filters. Large power plant suppliers such as B&W and Alstom make their own collectors but buy bags.

The 200 largest end users, architect engineers and OEMs make 75 percent of the decisions relative to fabric filter purchases. This is a small enough group that detailed forecasting can be achieved at modest cost compared to the potential to increase in sales and create greater sales efficiency.

OEM Networking Directory Has the Contacts at Consulting and Supplier Companies

If you sell systems, scrubbers nozzles, packing or corrosion resistant materials you will use the McIlvaine OEM Networking Directory daily. Check it out at: 53DI OEM Networking Directory.

“Hot Topic Hour” November 12, 2015 to Focus on Latest Issues and Innovations in Dry Scrubbing

This will be a free webinar to recommend updates to a power point presentation of 60 slides covering a range of options and issues related to dry scrubbing. The revised presentation and recording will be subsequently available to McIlvaine subscribers and to any end user.

The dry scrubbing option is being taken by many operators of power plants, incinerators, kilns and furnaces. There are many issues and innovations that need to be addressed by decision makers. These will be summarized and discussed in a 90 minute recorded webinar.

One of the decisions is the type of dry scrubber that is best. Originally SDA was the main option. Now CDS is popular. DSI with the more reactive sorbents has become an option even when higher efficiency is required. The catalytic filter with DSI promises one stop shopping. Combinations such as DSI and SDA are also an option.

The dry scrubber is necessarily part of a multi pollutant removal system that addresses particulate, acid gases and toxic metals. As a result, the evaluation of the impact of the dry scrubber on the removal pollutants such as mercury is important. The changing regulations in the U.S., China and the EU all need to be addressed.

Solid waste is an issue. Can the sorbent/acid/ash combination be used as construction materials? What about leaching of toxic metals? The loss of flyash and gypsum revenues need to be evaluated. The benefits of lower water use and elimination of wastewater are also important

There are many process factors. One is the sulfur content of the fuel versus the required efficiency. Another is the temperature of the air leaving the heat exchanger and the potential for DSI ahead of the air heater to allow greater heat recovery.

Ten Power Generators Will Purchase 50 Percent of the Mercury Reduction Products and Services in 2016

Mercury reduction is being accomplished by the addition of activated carbon, bromine or other chemicals. With the new air toxic rules requiring U.S. power plants to meet levels as low as 3 µg/m³ sales of these chemicals will be substantial. Worldwide sales for chemicals to reduce mercury will exceed $1 billion. The electricity generator (EG) expenditures will be over $800 million. Just ten EGs will spend an average of $40 million each and will account for over 40 percent of world purchases. Thirty-two EGs will account for 75 percent of the purchases by EGs and 60 percent of the total mercury reduction expenditures.

Mercury Reduction Expenditures for Major EGs

No. of

Corporations

No. of FGD MW/EG

1000

Total

1000

% of

Total

Installed

Base

% of Mercury

Expenditures

Short Term

% of

Mercury

Expenditures

Long Term

Examples

Over 50

575

Big 5 Chinese Corp

10-50

150

AEP, TVA, Duke, Enel, EON

5-10

105

NRG, Xcel, Tokyo Electric, Chubu Electric

3-5

AES, EPDC, RWE, CEZ

Sub total

910

350

0-3

390

U.S., Europe, China

404

Total

1,300

100

The U.S. is ahead of other countries in limiting mercury emissions from electricity from EGs. However, over the next ten years, the Chinese are expected to ratchet down emission limits to the same level as in the U.S. When this occurs, just seven corporations will account for 44 percent of the total purchases.

The concentration of purchasing among just a few corporations dictates a focused effort.

McIlvaine has introduced a program incorporating detailed forecasting of total potential sales revenue for each major prospect, project and supplier. This is included in N056 Mercury Air Reduction Market.

Huaneng Bayanbaolige 1,320 MW proposed Coal-fired Power Plant in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China

§ Seventeen Power Plant Owners have Purchased 56 Percent of all the World’s FGD Systems

§ Carbonxt and United Conveyor Corporation launch Joint Air Quality Control Offering

§ Precipitators can compete with Fabric Filters – Hot Topic Hour Thursday October 22, 2015Upcoming Hot Topic Hours

The Utility E Alert is issued weekly and covers the coal-fired projects, regulations and other information important to the suppliers. It is $950/yr. but is included in the $3020 Utility Tracking System which has data on every plant and project plus networking directories and many other features.