NEWS RELEASE                                   NOVEMBER 2004

$3 Billion SCR System Market by 2008

Purchases of Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) systems for NO_x control from stationary sources will rise to over $3 billion per year worldwide in 2008.  Sales of catalyst will exceed $750 million.  These predictions are contained in the continually updated online, NO_x Control: World Markets published by the McIlvaine Company.

The Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) will be the law of the land within the next month or two.  This rule will result in nearly 40,000 MW of SCR in the Eastern States by 2010.  This rule trumps the failed Clear Skies bill as far as the Eastern 28 states are concerned.  However, another 17,000 MW in the Western states is still subject to some initiative such as Clear Skies or more likely a rule to address regional haze.

The U.S. gas turbine SCR market peaked in 2001.  Sales of new gas turbines will be small in the next five years.  So this market is insignificant compared to the coal-fired market.  The SCR and Non-selective Catalytic Reduction (NSCR) market for I.C. Engines also peaked in 2001.  It has resumed slow growth from a valley floor of less than 40 percent of the peak.

Countries in the EU face an Emissions Ceilings Directive.  In the U.K. for example, NO_x must be reduced by 40 percent from the present 1.6 million tons/yr.  Power plants presently account for 320,000 tons.  Therefore, widespread use of SCR would accomplish only 10-20 percent reduction.  The rest will have to come from other sources.  Power plants will have to start placing orders in 2006 to meet the 2010 deadline.

The use of SCR for power plant NO_x control is spreading through Asia as well.  Even China is now starting to equip coal-fired boilers with NO_x control equipment.  While few countries other than the U.S. are requiring SCR for gas turbines, the momentum is increasing and will be significant in the 2007-2012 timeframe.  Many areas of the world have ozone problems comparable to what Los Angeles would have had if it hadn’t taken reduction steps and will have to take extreme measures to reduce smog.

Within the U.S. there will be a rising market for NO_x control at industrial facilities as the impact of the new 8-hour Ozone National Air Quality Standard is felt.  Since power plants will already have made the viable reductions, the burden will fall on industry for the remainder.  Waste incineration is much more popular in Asia and Europe than in the U.S.   Most new waste incinerators in Europe, Japan, Taiwan, and Korea will be fitted with SCR or Selective Non- catalytic Reduction systems (SNCR).

Catalyst manufacturers can look forward to profitable business in the future despite the glut of manufacturing capacity at the present time.  The full impact of the replacement market will be felt by 2008.  When this demand is combined with that for new systems, there will be the need to operate facilities at high capacity rates.

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