Modest Growth for Subsea Valves
The demand for subsea valves is increasing due
to the elevated prices of oil and gas. Over the
next few years prices are likely to remain high
due to the world political situation. Increases
in subsea production are underway but one
constraint is the long period between project
start and completion. There are also
uncertainties about the quality and
accessibility of the reserves.
Ukrainian forces recently attacked offshore oil
and gas drilling platforms in the Black Sea.
International valve and other component
suppliers have discontinued service to Russian
oil and gas producers. The embargo on Russian
oil and gas is strongly backed by the EU and
many democratic countries.
Rental rates for offshore oil and gas rigs have
soared, and their availability is one of the
hurdles. New subsea wells require years to
complete. In contrast wells in the Permian basin
in Texas can be completed in months.
The growth in the subsea valve market will be
determined by the comparative cost and
availability of new oil and gas from onshore
reserves.
OPEC+ agreed to boost its monthly production
growth target from 432,000 bpd to 648,000 bpd
recently. But oil prices actually rose. It was
because of lack of spare capacity.
This is due to underinvestment in new oil
exploration, in large part a result of the
investor shift to ESG opportunities and
government policies.
Across OPEC+, there are only a few countries
that can actually boost their oil production.
EIA forecasts that crude oil prices will remain
high enough to drive U.S. crude oil production
to record-high levels in 2023, reaching a
forecast 12.6 million barrels per day (b/d). EIA
expects new production in the Permian Basin to
drive overall U.S. crude oil production growth.
EIA expects U.S. crude oil production to
increase to 12.0 million b/d in 2022, up 760,000
b/d from 2021. EIA forecasts crude oil
production to rise by 630,000 b/d in 2023 to
average 12.6 million b/d. More than 80% of that
growth will come from the Lower 48 states
and not from Alaska and the Federal Offshore
Gulf of Mexico.
Production from new Lower 48 wells, particularly
in the Permian region, will drive the forecast
of U.S. crude oil production growth. Legacy
production, or crude oil production from
existing wells, typically declines relatively
quickly in tight oil formations, and EIA expects
that production from new wells will offset these
legacy production declines.
Figure 1
U.S. crude oil production
.
CapEx is the leading
indicator of subsea valve spend
Major
deep subsea reserves and CapEx are West Africa,
Latin America, and GoM (Brazil, USA, Nigeria,
Angola, Ghana).
Development time for subsea investments averages
5 to 8 years, from exploration to first
production.
Subsea completions (wet trees) are strongly
favored for ultra-deepwater basins at depths
greater than 5,000 feet for reasons of cost and
technological performance.
For shallower waters, dry trees are
favored for lower cost, direct vertical access,
and established track record.
Nearly 85% of subsea CapEx is concentrated in
deepwater and ultra-deepwater basins.
Cost curves for ultra-deepwater production are
in the range of $75 to $85/bbl, which is an
approximate proxy for subsea completions.
Cost curves vary by geographic region
reflective of local content requirements, as
well as water depth and geologic differences.
Key Trends: modularization and standardization
of subsea equipment
Key Challenges: cost and lead-time reductions
for subsea equipment
Subsea completions are more demanding than
surface completions in terms of depth, pressure,
corrosion, accessibility, reliability
requirements, and other metrics, but experience
has shown that technological solutions have been
developed to meet the challenges.
Cost considerations and technological
limitations regarding dry tree technology
strongly favor wet trees for the ultra-deepwater
basins at 5,000 feet and deeper.
Primary valves include full-ported gate and
ball.(1)
Butterfly valves with bore obstructions
are not piggable and have limited application in
subsea.
Subsea vertical trees may preferentially reflect
usage of gate valves to minimize vertical space
requirements.
Subsea horizontal trees may preferentially
reflect usage of ball valves.
Both tree types use ½ to 1 small-bore ball
valves for chemical injections, instrument
isolation, etc., with up to 30 valves per tree.
Subsea pipelines and manifolds primarily reflect
usage of trunnion-mounted ball valves
The Offshore Technology Conference and
exhibition was held in May. Some 25,000 people
traveled to Houston. The exhibition included
more than 1000 stands of which 100 were
associated
with valves in one way or another.
Many were distributors or suppliers of packages
which included valves. There were less than 10
of the large international valve suppliers with
displays. This indicates the specialized nature
of offshore valve requirements.
As can be seen in figure 1 the valve exhibitors
are from many countries. The large number from
Korea is indicative of government support for
suppliers to the energy industry. Korea had a
pavilion at PowerGen held in Texas in May.
The subsea valve market will continue to be
shaped by several factors. World politics will
be dominant with large supplies from Russia
likely to be unavailable. Another factor is the
potential to increase supplies of less costly
oil. The third factor is ESG. The impact of a
spill in the ocean is compared to environmental
impacts of tar sands with the higher energy
input and pollution in converting contaminated
to purified liquids.
Both the tar sands and subsea are long term
investments and therefore compete for the same
capital whereas shale oil is based on short term
criteria.
(1)
Industrial Valves: World Market
published by the McIlvaine Company. |