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WELCOME
Weekly selected highlights in flow
control, treatment and combustion from the many McIlvaine publications.
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FGD Crowd Decisions
•
Tariffs and
Conflict could Reduce the Combust, Flow and Treat Market by $75 billion/yr
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Big Growth in U.S.
Petrochemicals Market due to Surprisingly Low Oil and Gas Cost
•
Woven Belts and
Cloths for Coal Fired Power Plants
FGD Crowd Decisions
The last FGD
newsletter provided descriptions of the activities of many of the SOx-NOx
India participants e.g. suppliers, utilities, consultants and associations.
The optimum choices of FGD components will be made through crowd decisions
involving all of these knowledge resources’ Power Plant Decisions in conjunction with associations such as
Mission Energy and Dry Scrubber Users are making this possible Insights - October 7, 2019.
Tariffs and
Conflict could Reduce the Combust, Flow and Treat Market by $75 billion/yr
The combust, flow, and treat (CFT) products and
services markets will exceed $400 billion next year. The market has
typically been segmented by McIlvaine on geographical end use. However,
this analysis is based on where the profits are generated. India and Italy
are major exporters of valves. Africa will enjoy a rapidly increasing market
but China will be one of the main beneficiaries in terms of CFT products
and services. It is building complete power plants and mines and, in many
cases, taking part ownership of them.
The market in 2030 is likely to rise to just under $600
billion if there is a lack of government interference. However if there is
interference in the markets the revenues could only rise to $535 billion. Effect of Interference on the Combust, Flow, and Treat Markets
Big Growth in U.S. Petrochemicals Market due to
Surprisingly Low Oil and Gas Cost
The petrochemical industry segment of the Combust,
Flow, and Treat (CFT) market will grow faster than the average segment.
Suppliers with a strong U.S. presence can take advantage of a market
growing at close to 9 percent per year. The rapid growth, potential for
innovation, market access and the emphasis on better rather than low priced
components make this a Most Profitable Market (MPM) opportunity.
The U.S. will gain market share over the next six years
due primarily to the cheap supplies of feedstocks. Just within the last few
months the major oil companies have made clear their intention to invest a
higher percentage of capital on U.S. shale oil and gas extraction. Chevron
believes that it can extract oil at a cost of just $15 per barrel.
ExxonMobil believes it can be profitable with $30/bbl oil. Both companies
are expecting the U.S. liquids production to be 25 million bl/d by 2025.
This compares to IEA and OPEC forecasts for the U.S. production at just
half this amount. U.S. Petrochemical Industry is a Most Profitable Market (MPM)
Opportunity for CFT Providers
Woven Belts and
Cloths for Coal Fired Power Plants
The McIlvaine Company has
continued to grow vertically in terms of industries and technologies and
horizontally in terms of the number of Air, Water, and Energy products it
covers. It has added to its air pollution control, cleanroom,
centrifuge, cartridge, membrane, oxidizers, burners, pumps, valves,
chemicals with new efforts on dryers, fans, compressors, seals, hose, and
couplings. In terms of industries it has added lithium,
biopharmaceuticals, and manufactured frac sands to its industry coverage. In
each industry segment it has added sub segments e.g. in food there are now
nine sub segments
The major clients are the
suppliers. But by providing the end users with the true costs of
various products a whole new route to market is created. This true
cost analysis approach also allows suppliers to pursue their most
profitable markets.
One example would be the market
for woven belts and cloths for the Indian power plant market. Because India
is installing 100,000 MW of wet limestone FGD systems the market for
replacement gypsum dewatering vacuum filter belts will rise substantially
to $8 million/yr. by 2024.
Coal fired power plants will
spend $235 million for belts and cloths this year.
Revenues will increase at
greater than five percent a year due to the growing use of wet limestone
systems, the need to eliminate flyash ponds in the U.S. and a number of
other countries, the adoption of zero liquid discharge, and the requirement
that Chinese plants near oceans use desalinated water.
There are only 500 major coal plant
owners (both industrial and utility) around the world. A few dominate
the purchases. Shenhua Guodian will spend over $30 million for belts and
cloths this year. NTPC in India will be spending more than $4
million/yr for belts and cloths by 2024.
In terms of pursuing the most
profitable market, there are only a few companies capable of making belts
with 50 m2 of belt surface. The Chinese market is very large but
there are established suppliers. The markets in India and South East Asia
are just being established. So, in terms of profitability there is a
justification for pursuing this segment.
The fact that McIlvaine is also
providing true cost analysis to owners adds to the potential profit margins
of those with the lowest total cost of ownership products. But this effort
can also shape the total market. For example; by using lime instead
of limestone a very white gypsum can be produced. This can replace
precipitated calcium carbonate as a paper coating and generate a
significant byproduct revenue stream. However, the function of the belt
filter becomes more critical and thus increases the potential market.
The market for belts and cloths
for all applications is analyzed in N006
Liquid Filtration and Media World Markets.
The market for FGD is analyzed
in FGD Markets and Strategies http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/markets/air/n027-fgd-market-and-strategies
Bob McIlvaine can answer your
questions at rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
847 784 0012 cell 847 226 2391.
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