Power Air Quality Insights No

				Power Air Quality Insights No. 57 May 24, 2012

WELCOME

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· U.S. Industrial Air Emitters to Spend $1 billion/yr for Air Pollution Control Over the Next Five Years on More than 2000 Specific Projects

Big changes are occurring in the industries and geographies which comprise the air pollution control markets. A Hot Topic Hour hosted by Bob McIlvaine on Thursday, May 31, at 10 a.m. will provide analysis and discussion of these changes. The impact of regulations on coal opportunities in the U.S. will be discussed along with the market for gas turbine NO_x control. The big power plant APC markets in Asia will be explored.

The opportunities created by the Cement and Industrial boiler MACT will also be addressed.

There is a hot new market for removing SO₂ from vessels, developing markets in unconventional gas and oil and even odor control from municipal wastewater plants. Each will be discussed.

On Thursday at 10 a.m. Central time, McIlvaine hosts a 90 minute web meeting on important energy and pollution control subjects. Power webinars are free for subscribers to either Power Plant Air Quality Decisions or Utility Environmental Upgrade Tracking System. The cost is $125.00 for non-subscribers. Market Intelligence webinars are free to McIlvaine market report subscribers and are $400.00 for non-subscribers.

DATE	Non-Subscribers Cost	SUBJECT	Webinar Type
May 24, 2012	$125.00	Status of Carbon Capture Programs and Technology	Power
May 31, 2012	$400.00	Air Pollution Control Markets (geographic trends, regulatory developments, competition, technology developments)	Market Intelligence
June 7, 2012	$125.00	Dry Sorbents and Systems	Power
June 14, 2012	$125.00	Report from Power Gen Europe (update on regulations, speaker and exhibitor highlights)	Power
June 21, 2012	$125.00	Material Handling for Dry Sorbent Injection	Power
June 28, 2012	$125.00	Greenhouse Gas Strategies for Coal-fired Plant Operators	Power
July 12, 2012	$125.00	CFB Technology and Clean Coal (Update on CFB Reactor Technology)	Power
July 19, 2012	$400.00	Future for Coal, Gas, Nuclear and Renewables (forecasts by region and discussion of market drivers and regulatory constraints)	Market Intelligence
July 26, 2012	$125.00	Beneficial Byproducts of Coal Combustion and Gasification	Power
August 2, 2012	$125.00	Mercury Control and Removal Status and Cost	Power
August 9, 2012	$400.00	Filter Media (forecasts and market drivers for media used in air, gas, liquid, fluid applications both mobile and stationary)	Market Intelligence
August 16, 2012	$125.00	Report from Coal-gen (highlights of speeches and exhibitions)	Power
August 23, 2012	$125.00	Report from Mega Symposium (highlights of speeches and exhibitions at this important air pollution conference)	Power
August 30, 2012	$400.00	Instrumentation for Air, Gas, Water, Liquids (forecasts , market shares, growth segments)	Market Intelligence
September 6, 2012	$125.00	Production of Fertilizer and Sulfuric Acid at Coal-fired Power Plants	Power

Fossil and nuclear power plants will invest $736 billion on new equipment and repair parts in 2013. Sixty-five percent of the investment will be in coal-fired power plants. This is the latest finding in Fossil & Nuclear Power Generation: World Analysis & Forecast, published by the McIlvaine Company. (wwwmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com)

Technology	Units	Coal-fired		Nuclear		Gas Turbine
		Existing	New	Existing	New	Existing	New
Capacity	GW	2228	128	439	16	1000	67
Total Investment	$ Billions	223	256	88	64	45	60
Combined New and Existing	$ Billions	479		152		105

Despite the virtual moratorium on new coal-fired power plants in the U.S., the rest of the world will spend $256 billion on new coal-fired power plants in 2013. This contrasts with only $60 billion for gas turbine systems. Repair parts and upgrades of existing coal-fired power plants will generate revenues greater than the combined new power plant and repair investments by nuclear and gas turbine combined.

The future competition among these three major fuels will be shaped by a number of factors. The greatest variable is the quantity of shale gas which can be economically produced. The U.S. has potentially enough shale gas to meet present requirements for thirty years. China has even greater reserves but they are located deeper and will be more expensive to extract. Furthermore, the Chinese shale gas industry is in its infancy. Even with its most ambitious plan, China’s gas production would only be eight percent of that in the U.S. in 2020.

The efforts to reduce greenhouse gases will virtually eliminate new coal-fired power plants as an option in certain countries but the large investment in these power plants by other countries will result in coal-fired power continuing to be the most popular option.

Nuclear generation growth will also be highly regionalized. Some countries will not only avoid building new nuclear power plants but will phase out existing ones. Other countries will be big investors in nuclear power. Nevertheless, this fuel option will continue to remain in third place far behind coal.

For suppliers of products and services for the air, water, and energy industries there are some substantial double digit growth opportunities. Ten of these have been identified as the most promising by the McIlvaine Company These are ranked based on potential market size.

There is a very large continuing investment in extraction of gas from shale in the U.S. The requirement for hydraulic fracturing two miles underground greatly increases the investment in flow control and treatment products: the U.S. now has access to reserves which could make it a net exporter or at least self sufficient for 30 years. The big unknown is the potential in China and the rest of the world.

China has bigger reserves but they are deeper. There is also a lack of water in the areas where it will be required. Nevertheless, China plans 60 billion m³ of capacity by 2020.

$70 billion will be required to supply 70,000 ships with treatment systems to ensure that ballast water discharges be free of live invasive species. Large investments will also be needed to reduce sulfur and NO_x emissions from the ship stacks.

Power plants and other large water users will accelerate the treatment and use of wastewater. The co-location of municipal wastewater treatment plants and either combined cycle gas turbine or coal-fired power plants will be a popular option. Industrial facilities will increasingly opt to treat and reuse wastewater rather than discharge it. The investment in treatment systems and chemicals for this purpose will be substantial.

Coal-fired power plant operators in China are embarked on a huge program to install DeNO_x systems using selective catalytic reduction. In Europe and the U.S., regulations requiring NO_x reduction on trucks and other vehicles will ensure double-digit growth in this segment. Suppliers of urea and ammonia will benefit from both the stationary and mobile activity.

The new generation involving recirculating tanks and efficient filtration is changing the approach to fish farming. The continuing depletion of wild fish populations is also a driving factor.

The average age of coal-fired power plants in the U.S. is forty years. The efforts to prevent new power plant construction in the U.S. and Europe are forcing operators of existing power plants to modernize. One of the biggest needs is to replace outdated instrumentation and controls and to make the power plants much more efficient.

The remediation of soil and groundwater is becoming a big business in developing countries. It will generate $36 billion in revenue this year.

Small particles are increasingly identified as the most harmful contaminants in air. The resultant legislation will continue to bolster both the mobile and stack gas markets for reduction technology. Fabric filters will replace electrostatic precipitators in many cement and power plants.

Waste-to-energy through combustion of solid wastes or generation of biogas will replace landfill as a disposal method in developing countries. The U.S. is one of the few developed countries which tolerate landfills as a solution.

The short-term outlook for wind and solar has been negatively impacted by the shale gas discoveries and production. Cut throat pricing and oversupply have battered the solar cell manufacturers. Nevertheless, the “renewables” market will weather the storm and again become healthy.

Information on the above opportunities is contained in a number of McIlvaine market research reports. For more information, click on: www.mcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com.

U.S. Industrial Air Emitters to Spend $1 billion/yr for Air Pollution Control Over the Next Five Years on More than 2000 Specific Projects

Operators of industrial boilers, kilns, pulp mills, mines and incinerators are facing huge investments to meet recently passed national regulations and imminent additional regulations by the individual states. The expenditure will exceed $1 billion/yr over the next five years as thousands of projects ranging from $100,000 to $25 million will be undertaken. These projects are identified in the McIlvaine report, U.S. Industrial Emitters. This database covers over 40,000 industrial sources in the U.S.

Three major national rules have been promulgated. They deal with air toxics and affect the cement industry, operators of industrial and commercial boilers, and operators of solid and liquid waste incinerators. There will be extensive investment in fabric filters to capture the toxic metals. In many cases, activated carbon or other chemicals will be needed to capture mercury. Removal of hydrogen chloride will also be necessary and will generate markets for wet scrubbers. Organics such as the kerogens in limestone used in the cement industry also generate organic toxics and will create a market for thermal treatment technologies.

Several thousand plants will be installing new air pollution control systems but nearly 6,000 plants will be making investments in monitoring and control of process and combustion operations. Mercury and PM mass monitors are very expensive but will only be required for 1000 plants. However monitors for CO and O₂ will be required at many plants.

It is likely that rules will be promulgated by individual states which will force the addition of NO_x, SO_x and particulate matter (PM) reduction equipment. This is in addition to that required by the national standards. The states are required to take whatever actions are necessary to bring the ambient air quality to a level specified in federal regulations already promulgated. It will be more cost effective and politically acceptable to require larger industrial facilities to cut their emissions by fifty percent than it will be to impose limitations on lawn mowers, grills and the like.

Even though many areas are in attainment with ambient standards, they are upwind of areas which are in non-attainment. These attainment areas will be subject to lawsuits by the downwind areas. The end result is that equipment will be required at many locations and not just within the non-attainment areas.

The discovery of large quantities of shale gas and the resultant low price of natural gas will ensure the stability and even modest growth in the U.S. industrial base. As a result, the vast majority of plants will make the necessary expenditures to remain in business.

Each month McIlvaine’s Renewable Energy Projects and Update reports on advances in solar technology.

Scientists boosted the significance of tandem polymer solar cells by successfully testing cells with low-bandgap polymers that achieved certified conversion efficiencies of 8.62 ± 0.3 percent with respect to standard terrestrial reporting conditions.

That’s the highest independently measured efficiency for a polymer solar cell, say researchers from the U.S. Department of Energy’s NREL and UCLA, who co-authored a report in the February 12 issue of Nature Photonics.

Suntech Power Holdings Co., Ltd., announced that its industry-leading Pluto cell technology set a world record 20.3 percent efficiency for a production cell using standard commercial-grade p-type silicon wafers.

The Solar Energy Research Institute of Singapore has independently confirmed the 20.3 percent efficiency of the improved Pluto cell technology, a significant improvement over the 19.6 percent best cell efficiency of the first generation Pluto cell technology. With further optimization, the efficiency of the improved Pluto cell technology is projected to reach 21.0 percent in the next 6 – 12 months.

One of the key improvements for the Pluto cell technology is the incorporation of similar high-efficiency characteristics of the record-holding PERL cell technology in the conventional Pluto cell manufacturing process. These act to improve the rear surface design of a conventional Pluto cell, primarily by reducing the metal/silicon interface area while keeping the remaining non-contacted area well-passivated. In addition, Suntech has introduced process changes that minimize the use of high temperatures which make it possible to apply the high efficiency processes to the most commonly used commercial wafers.

Following the laboratory success of the improved Pluto cell technology, Suntech is now focusing on commercializing the technology.

Solar Frontier announced that it has achieved 17.8 percent aperture area efficiency on a 30cm x 30cm CIS-based photovoltaic submodule in joint research with Japan’s New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization (NEDO). This new record for thin-film CIS technology was accomplished at Atsugi Research Center (ARC), Solar Frontier’s dedicated research laboratory in Japan that is the cornerstone of the company’s integrated research and production framework.

This new record surpasses Solar Frontier’s previous world record of 17.2 percent set in March 2011.

Solar Frontier’s CIS modules are manufactured at its Kunitomi plant, which started full commercial operations last year. The technological advances made at ARC are applied to mass production through Solar Frontier’s integrated research and production framework, which includes a pilot plant equipped with the machines on which the gigawatt-scale Kunitomi plant’s machinery is based.

The Kunitomi plant recently produced a champion module at 14.5 percent aperture efficiency (13.38 percent module efficiency), achieving a 164W rating.

Following the granting of their exclusive licensing agreement with National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Natcore Technology Inc. has entered a Cooperative Research & Development Agreement with NREL. Under the terms of the CRADA, Natcore and NREL would work together to reach two goals:

· Increase solar panel energy output from 3 percent to 10 percent over the course of a day without the aid of a solar tracking mechanism.

These goals would be accomplished by combining Natcore’s patented liquid phase deposition (LPD) technology with NREL’s technologies for creating a black silicon antireflective layer integrated into high-efficiency solar cells. The feasibility of the combined technologies working together has already been demonstrated in an earlier Natcore/NREL effort that produced a cell with 16.5 percent efficiency.

NREL holds the world record for a cell made with black silicon at 18.6 percent but they had to make it using a passivation technology that requires thermal oxidation. Natcore will replace that cumbersome step with its LPD oxide process. The combination of the two technologies could significantly exceed NREL’s record cell efficiency.

Under the terms of the CRADA, the parties will spend $150,000 to reach the stated goals. That amount may be increased if both parties so agree. The initial CRADA has a duration of one year.

Innovative 3-D Designs from an MIT Team Can More than Double the Solar Power Generated from a Given Area

Intensive research around the world has focused on improving the performance of solar photovoltaic cells and bringing down their cost. But very little attention has been paid to the best ways of arranging those cells, which are typically placed flat on a rooftop or other surface, or sometimes attached to motorized structures that keep the cells pointed toward the sun as it crosses the sky.

Now, a team of MIT researchers has come up with a very different approach: building cubes or towers that extend the solar cells upward in 3-D configurations. Amazingly, the results from the structures they’ve tested show power output ranging from double to more than 20 times that of fixed flat panels with the same base area.

The biggest boosts in power were seen in the situations where improvements are most needed: in locations far from the equator, in winter months and on cloudier days. The new findings, based on both computer modeling and outdoor testing of real modules, have been published in the journal Energy and Environmental Science.

Solar3D, Inc., the developer of a breakthrough 3-D solar cell technology to maximize the conversion of sunlight into electricity, announced that it has completed a detailed simulation analysis comparing its breakthrough solar cell with conventional solar cells. The results reveal that the company’s breakthrough solar cell can produce 200 percent of the power output of conventional solar cells.

The company’s innovative single wafer silicon solar cell is based on a 3-dimensional design with two very powerful and unique patent-pending features: wide angle light collection and high conversion efficiency. The Solar3D cell has a special wide-angle feature on the surface that can capture more light in the morning and evening hours, as well as in the winter months when the sun is not directly overhead. The Solar3D cell also uses a 3-dimensional design to increase the electricity generation efficiency by trapping sunlight inside photovoltaic microstructures, which are etched into the wafer, where photons bounce around until they are converted into electrons. These two features are combined into a single solar cell design to deliver unprecedented performance.

U.S. Total	25
Marcellus U.S.	13
Argentina	22
Europe	18
China	36
U.S. Total Natural Gas Consumption in 2011	0.8
U.S. 2011 Electric Power Consumption with Gas	0.2