Mcilvaine Insights

No. 87   December 13, 2018

WELCOME

Weekly selected highlights in flow control, treatment and combustion from the many McIlvaine publications.

• Keep Up with the Air Pollution Market Dynamics with the Gold Dust Newsletter
• Detailed Valve Market Share Forecasting

Keep Up with the Air Pollution Market Dynamics with the Gold Dust Newsletter

The McIlvaine Air Pollution Management Service with the Gold Dust newsletter is only $975/yr. Headlines for November are shown below. More details are found at 5AB Air Pollution Management

MARKETS

• $6-Billion Market for NO_x Control Consumables
• The IIoT Market Size and Structure
• Fabric Filter Market, Competitor Shares, IIoT and TCO are Inseparable

INDUSTRY NEWS

• Primetals Technologies Expands Condition Monitoring System for Tangshan Iron Steel
• Combustion Tuning System Using AI Technology Shown to Provide Cost Reduction Effect of Around $1 Million Annually — at
  Taiwan Power Company’s Linkou Thermal Power Plant
• Accenture and Kansai Electric Power Establish Joint Venture to Bring AI Powered Analytics to the Osaka-Based Japanese Utility
• Donaldson Offers Connected Technology to Simplify the Management of Dust and Fume Collection
• India Government Promises Significant Cuts in Air Pollution
• GE to Reorganize Power Group

Detailed Valve Market Share Forecasting

Detailed forecasting of market shares by valve type and industry are available. Valve forecasts  are first segmented by control vs on/off and then by eight valve types and then by fifteen industries. This results in 240 forecasts for each supplier.

There are no authoritative sources for valve sales and certainly not for market shares. In fact since many valves are sold through distributors the supplier may not know how many of his valves are being purchased by a particular industry. However, it is well worthwhile to create approximate segmentations. A detailed analysis is much more  valuable for decisions relative to R&D, sales, and manufacturing than a general forecast. Here is an example showing estimated 2018 Metso globe control valve sales.

Estimated Metso sales range between 1.7% to 2.3 % for control globe valves in selected industries.  Market shares in some other industry/valve type categories are just a fraction of 1%. Metso is the 7^th largest valve supplier. Its total market share is 1.4%. Its share in control valves is higher than in on off valves.

Similar forecasts are available for the valve types shown in the following chart.

The accuracy of the forecasts and value are a function of the amount of effort needed to make the forecasts.

The output can be viewed as a range from a police sketch through a 240 piece puzzle. The least expensive is the police sketch.  Some details are known but the rest have to be guesstimated. A victim is more likely to identify a perpetrator if  shown a sketch that expands upon known details.  The same is true of valve market analysis.  The total market share estimate is best determined by aggregating the 240 components even if some of them are uncertain but minor.

The ideal output is the 240 piece puzzle where each of the components is known.  This ideal is rarely achieved. One of the challenges is that each one of the 240 pieces is in turn something between a police sketch and a clear picture. The contours of the piece are created  by drawing on knowledge of each industry, each purchaser in that industry, each process operated by each purchaser, valve type preferences, and other factors.  For example there are component listings for power plants in the McIlvaine’s  42EI Utility Tracking System.

Case histories and  bidder specifications are provided in the valve intelligence system which is part of N028 Industrial Valves: World Market.

The estimated average globe control valve sales for a supplier such as Metso can then be further subdivided by individual purchaser. This represents the average success rate.  If a certain target is under the average it is an incentive for further effort.  Since the average is only 2.3% of the total purchase then there is still the other 97.7% to pursue.

The coal fired power sector  accounts for 40% of the control  globe valves sales for power.

By creating detailed estimates the local sales people are empowered to make a substantial contribution. They could assess whether AEP does spend $7.6 million for globe control valves for all its plants.

There is a big opportunity to improve market share at the largest purchasers. Shenhua Guodian with more coal fired plants than are operating in the U.S. is spending more than $80 million/yr for globe control valves. If Metso could boost sales to Shenhua Guodian to a 40% market share rather than 2% it would more than double its globe control valve sales to the coal fired power industry.

Since many valve supplier decisions rest on assumptions about the market and market share it is well worthwhile to invest in market share analyses even if it is only the equivalent of a police sketch.  The more accurate analysis can be part of a program which also tracks purchases by each major prospect.

For more information contact Bob McIlvaine at rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com  847 784 0012 ext. 122.